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Old 2009-11-24, 08:47   Link #3481
ijriims
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I guess you meant Gohda.



George is actually pretty high in my mastermind suspect list.




Actually Dante met Virgil at the very entrance of hell. Virgil guided Dante through all of hell and all of purgatory. Beatrice was waiting for him at the peak of purgatory, since Virgil couldn't go any further from that point onward Beatrice becomes Dante's guide.
1. Correction was made.

2. I can't believe he would kill his parents in EP2. I can't believe he resort to violence since Hideyoshi probably would not mind George marrying Shannon.

3. Corrected as well.
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Old 2009-11-24, 08:53   Link #3482
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2. I can't believe he would kill his parents in EP2. I can't believe he resort to violence since Hideyoshi probably would not mind George marrying Shannon.
But you can believe that Kyrie would kill the man she loves and the father of her only child. Not to mention that Genji Shannon and Kanon would all agree to help her in a mass murder plan. This point is hardly relevant since it could be applied to practically anyone of the 17.

You necessarily need to think that someone's true nature is different than what we see.
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Old 2009-11-24, 09:08   Link #3483
ijriims
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But you can believe that Kyrie would kill the man she loves and the father of her only child. Not to mention that Genji Shannon and Kanon would all agree to help her in a mass murder plan. This point is hardly relevant since it could be applied to practically anyone of the 17.

You necessarily need to think that someone's true nature is different than what we see.
Rudolf-Kyrie relationship was complicated as Rudolf abandoned her 11 years ago and she did not know that Battler was not Asumu's son. It was a romantic relationship and we all knew things could turn ugly between lovers. And we know Kyrie's true nature was not that pure as we were already shown she hid her envy and internal hatred against Battler and Asumu in EP3.

Relationship between George and his parents was much more simple. Hideyoshi and Eva loved their son and George respected his father and understood Eva was training him to be a successful man. George was mature enough and probably would persuade his parents to accept the marriage before resorting to violence. He did not need to resort to killing at all since Hideyoshi would probably accept the marriage and promised George to persuade Eva into accepting it as well.

The point that Kyrie was willing to kill the whole family and the point that Genji, Shannon and Kanon was willing to help were two different things.

I assume you have already known my propositions why Genji and other servants were willing to help Kyrie as well as why Kyrie was willing to kill the whole family. Attack my premises and background speculation but not the implications or conclusions please. I don't want to type my whole hypothesis and listed out all arguments here.

Talking about true nature, whose true nature was shown to be or could be dark already? Rosa, Kyrie, Eva (after finding the gold), Krauss (pretending Kinzo's alive with ease), George? (Was his determination to kill all people if everyone opposed a sign of dark nature at all?) Kumasawa, Kinzo? and Maria(her witch mode).

Who were also shown to be not dark or good-natured? Natsuhi, Hideyoshi, Rudolf? (if womanizing did not count as dark...), Gohda, Maria (her child mode), Battler, Jessica, Nanjo and Shannon?

Kanon and Genji was shown to be neutral most of the time.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-11-24 at 13:59.
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Old 2009-11-24, 09:36   Link #3484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Rudolf-Kyrie relationship was complicated as Rudolf abandoned her 11 years ago and she did not know that Battler was not Asumu's son. It was a romantic relationship and we all knew things could turn ugly between lovers. And we know Kyrie's true nature was not that pure as we were already shown she hid her envy and internal hatred against Battler and Asumu in EP3.

Relationship between George and his parents was much more simple. Hideyoshi and Eva loved their son and George respected his father and understood Eva was training him to be a successful man. George was mature enough and probably would persuade his parents to accept the marriage before resorting to violence. He did not need to resort to killing at all since Hideyoshi would probably accept the marriage and promised George to persuade Eva into accepting it as well.

The point that Kyrie was willing to kill the whole family and the point that Genji, Shannon and Kanon was willing to help were two different things.

I assume you have already known my propositions why Genji and other servants were willing to help Kyrie as well as why Kyrie was willing to kill the whole family. Attack my premises and background speculation but not the implications or conclusions please. I don't want to type my whole hypothesis and listed out all arguments here.
But might I add that I agree with Jan-Poo on this one?
You never know someones true motives until he tells you them in a moment of weakness. Kyrie displayed her anger very well in Episode 3 and made it clear that she holds the needed anger to move against the family...yet we can't say other's don't hold that, too.

George for example has more than a good motive to kill even his parents. His mother is a control-freak who emasculates her husband pretty much and her son is bossed around to fullfill the future she was denied to have.
It's not like Eva would be a bad person, but she gives even a sane son reason enough to hate her and no feeling is as strong as love.
Even Jessica can't be put off the list. Her parents pretty much deny her everything she wishes from her life, forcing her into the role of the next head of the family oposing rules and restrictions on her that go against everything that she is.
And since Higurashi we know that Ryukishi as a writer seems to be pretty sure that people can do terrible things even to those they love if blinded by the wrong forces.
Only because we don't see a clear conviction to commit murder yet, does not imply that there is none. The most clever criminals are those who can hide their actual agenda from us.
Kyrie for example will, for the outside world, always stay the woman who is feasting on the leftovers of a loving relationship which resulted in a son and ended in tragedy. But we already learned that actually Asumu isn't without guilt either but until Episode 3 that side of Kyrie was completely hidden from us.

I just want to further prove the point made already before me, you cannot trust what people say to you, that IS the difficulty of the detective genre.
Battler being away for 6 years and knowing nothing about Rokkenjima anymore.
Jessica loving her parents and Kanon still after all that happened.
George being a devoted son and living to fulfill his parents dream.
Maria being an innocent child who is mentally underdeveloped for her age.
Kinzo being a hatefull lunatic.
Krauss being a poor investor and putting his wife behind his own social standing.
Eva being a sarcastic, envious bitch who hates her family (partly proven wrong).
Rudolph being a sly, but rather easygoing gigolo.
Rosa being a split-personality case with anger issues.
Natsuhi being a weak and frail woman who can't defend herself.
Hideyoshi being a fun but simpleminded countryman (in his case we almost know it's a charade).
Kyrie being a sly, cold and calculating woman (partly proven wrong).
and so on...

The problem is, if you readily believe in some of those peoples personality traits at first glance and take them for granted, you could also agree to one sentence 'Beatrice is the witch of Rokkenjima'.
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Old 2009-11-24, 09:41   Link #3485
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Sorry but I can't agree the least with your assessment on Kyrie. There is absolutely no evidence of her hating Rudolf. Even though she'd have all the reasons to hate him, she keeps on justifying him and she keep on blaming Asumu and Asumu alone.

She has been waiting for him for 12 long years and after all that time she agreed to marry him and have a daugther with him, not to mention they have spent 6 years together already.

Just provide me any single reason or hint that would prove her willingness to kill Rudolf.

Your theory is based on mere speculations, similar speculations can be made about any character.

In the case of George we have a hint that he could resort to kill his own family and even an hint that he would be ready to do anything Kinzo did to revive her loved one. But is there a similar thing about Kyrie? I don't think so.

Her envy towards Asumu is hardly any proof, since her death happened a whole 12 years after she married Rudolf

In conclusion, there are no more reason to questions Kyrie's love toward Rudolf than George's love towards his parents.
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Old 2009-11-24, 11:34   Link #3486
ijriims
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@Jan-Poo:
Based on my speculation, Kyrie had reason to kill the whole family and her marriage with Rudolf and bearing of Ange was mere a strategic move. (assuming you know what my speculation is about)

The reason why I don't think George would kill his parents and the whole family is because you did not provide your speculation why he would need to do so.

I am not saying George would not kill the family under any situation, just that you have not provided the situation for me to assess. If you say that George killed his parents because his parents opposed to his marriage with Shannon, then it should not be the case as Hideyoshi would not oppose it at all. And the fact that the epitaph murders were planned beforehand would collide with the fact that George proposed to Shannon on 4th Oct night. Probably George would only plan the killing if Shannon agreed to the engagement and George then declared it to his parents and received opposition.

My whole speculation on Kyrie's motive was based on the premise that she being the mastermind behind, which was deduced from the number on the door in EP3 and what was revealed in 1998 in EP4. The motive was my speculation on why she would be willing to kill the whole family based on Beatrice's dialogue with Battler in EP4 and Kasumi's mentioning of Kyrie.

Your notion of George being the mastermind was based on what evidence or hints? If you showed it, then you could formulate the motive and I would not argue with you on the motive.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-11-24 at 12:51.
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Old 2009-11-24, 11:56   Link #3487
ijriims
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On what killed all people in the end:

A simple speculation- a timebomb (set off at 00:00 6th Oct) with massive explosive under the mansion and accidiental landslide caused by the explosion and shockwaves.

In EP1: all remaining people (Maria, Battler, George, Jessica) and bodies inside the mansion (Eva, Hideyoshi, Kinzo, Kanon?, Genji, Nanjo, Kumasawa) were blown into pieces. The remaining six bodies were covered in debris by the landslide.

EP2: Battler and Genji who remained inside the mansion as well as the bodies in Jessica, Natsuhi's room and inner garden were bombed into pieces. The six bodies in chapel were covered in the debris. Rosa and Maria went to the chapel to snatch the gold piece and did not escape the landslide.

EP3: Jessica was blown into pieces. All bodies (including Battler, killed by Eva) except Krauss and Natsuhi were also blown into pieces. Krass and Natsuhi's bodies were covered in debris. Eva has gone to the place where the gold hid before the explosion. Police came to the island and identified the landslide as accident but would not figure out what caused the massive explosion as all evidence were destroyed by the landslide. They may identify it as the explosion in boiler room or remaining explosive from WWII. Krauss and Natsuhi's bodies were not found. So ultimately, the incident were identified as accident.

EP4: Battler was again blown into pieces in the end while all other bodies were either bombed into pieces or covered by debris.

EP5: The time-bomb was disabled, so no all people died in the end and no landslide, only that Natsuhi was framed to be culprit....

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Old 2009-11-24, 13:30   Link #3488
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I get that your point is that you provided a speculation to support your theory and I didn't. But a speculation is a speculation and my point is that a speculation, equally valid to your, is possible for any character. If you don't think so you lack imagination. I'll state this to make my point clear:

In mystery novels and novels in general it is possible for any character, regardless of how they initially appear, to have a particular background, unrevealed and unforeshadowed to the readers until the time of revelation, that will justify their ill intent and/or criminal behaviour. Higurashi is a very good example of this

However while it is moderately probable to understand who is the culprit, imagining the aforementioned background is practically a shot in the dark. I.E. the probability to get it right is almost zero. Because, as I said, they are usually not hinted enough. Again I'll ask you to think about Higurashi and I ask you if you could honestly imagine such background and from what exactly?

Shannon and George seems to love each other, but just because you see a couple being lovely-dovey it doesn't mean that one of the two actually does feel a thing about the other and that he isn't ready to kill at any given time.

Can you deny that?

The only people that are beyond suspicion imho are only:

Battler: confirmed detective and denied as culprit in red
Maria: too young, too suspicious and her background has been revealed already
Natsuhi: Not a knox rule but close, whoever is being accused of being the culprit in a consistent way inside a story is not the real culprit.
Eva: Kinda like Maria and Natsuhi. Too suspicious, her background has been revealed already, she's been accused of being the culprit.
Kinzo: not because he is apparently dead, (he could still be the mastermind), but because it would be too obvious. Also he's been seen as the main culprit of Ep4

The rest is fair game
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Old 2009-11-24, 13:46   Link #3489
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
In mystery novels and novels in general it is possible for any character, regardless of how they initially appear, to have a particular background, unrevealed and unforeshadowed to the readers until the time of revelation, that will justify their ill intent and/or criminal behaviour. Higurashi is a very good example of this

However while it is moderately probable to understand who is the culprit, imagining the aforementioned background is practically a shot in the dark. I.E. the probability to get it right is almost zero. Because, as I said, they are usually not hinted enough. Again I'll ask you to think about Higurashi and I ask you if you could honestly imagine such background and from what exactly?

Shannon and George seems to love each other, but just because you see a couple being lovely-dovey it doesn't mean that one of the two actually does feel a thing about the other and that he isn't ready to kill at any given time.

Can you deny that?
Of course I could not deny it. And I agree that generally speaking the motive of the murderers was not shown till the end for most mystery stories.

However, in Umineko's case it is different. If one treat Umineko just like a normal detective story then it would be like Erika and Bern in EP5.

And truly you have to understand the culprits' motive to understand some of the moves, as it was stated that Beatrice did not use the most straight-forward moves. I understood this saying as if one does not understand her real intention, one could not make sense of some of the murders or actions at all.

So not understanding of whys would hamper your understanding of hows in Umineko.

That is also what I understood the phrase "without love, the truth cannot be seen."

Considering that Ryukishi07 was trying to write a meaningful story, I don't think any love between couples would be completely fake. In short, any hypothesis portraying a person malice in nature could not be what Ryukishi07 wanted to write. Any true culprits would not be out-of portrayed character (unless hinted) as well since it would be too anticlimatic and pessimistic views on humanity, which could be the case if the work itself concerns only hows but not whys, but Umineko obviously concerns about whys.

The assumption that Ryukishi07 would not use too anticlimatic plots or too-dark-to-be-redeemed motives limits the number of possible motive hypotheses. But I don't know if you agree to this assumption.

Killing someone needs a big reason, especiallly when one has to kill one's parents and the whole family. Up until now, I could not see such motive could be developed for George in just two days' time. Shannon as the mastermind made more sense but again why she would kill the whole family? If it was merely for money, it was too out-of-the-character as well as too dark a motive (but realistic). If it was for the opposition of her and George's marriage, it did not make sense since it meant she presumed George would propose to her before Oct 4th and George's parents would oppose. If it was for urging the family to reunite, then it was too extreme for such a character, but I should say it was the most plausible motive for her, if she was the true mastermind.

Your speculation is as valid as mine, as long as you provide one without internal consistency.

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Old 2009-11-24, 14:31   Link #3490
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Maria: too young, too suspicious and her background has been revealed already
This, of course, doesn't mean she isn't a willing accomplice most of the time.

I'd also add Kumasawa to your list... even if she is an accomplice, I doubt a woman of her age is capable of committing most of the murders.

The most probable culprits, to me, are the OWE servant, Jessica, and George... the former because, well, it's pretty obvious they're all in on something, Jessica because it would be totally unexpected, and George because the things he says in Ep4 make it very easy to understand why he would kill everyone. Also that evil, evil smile.

The adults always die too early and too often to be realistic masterminds or culprits.

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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
*snip*
a) Beatrice isn't Kyrie. Kyrie is probably Battler's real mother, and having her turn out to be the woman Battler has been all love-love with for the past five games would be... extremely awkward. Nor can I see her spending time playing with Maria, both from what we've seen of her personality and from what we've seen in-game... has she ever even talked to Maria? Ever?

b) You don't remember Higurashi very well if you don't think that kind, decent people, even children, can do horrible, horrible things if pushed too far.
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Old 2009-11-24, 14:58   Link #3491
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It's not like I'm pointing to George for no reasons. I have some ideas, some pieces scattered, but I can't put them together yet, like a puzzle I miss some pieces and therefore I can't get the whole picture.

However I believe that hints that point to George exist, they are feeble, but I wouldn't expect otherwise. Actually if there are strong hints about someone being the culprit then that is probably a red herring. It might be a paradox but in mystery novels faint hints are more important than strong hints.

The reason I believe George is a probable candidate (mind however: one of the probable culprit, not the most probable), is the fact that Shannon is at this moment the most probable person whom Battler sinned against.

I am still not enough sure if she is also Beatrice, but i'm quite positive that there is a very high probability that Battler made a promise to her in the past and that he broke it by not going to Rokkenjima for 6 years. Also Battler had a crush on her, and Shannon remembers a lot of things about Battler. Now there are several other hints but I don't need to go in detail.

Then there is the fact that there are hints here and there that Shannon isn't very happy of George's marriage proposal. Should she be supposed to scream in joy? Certainly the situation isn't the most happy considering the difference in social status, but maybe that's just an excuse for Shannon to explain her reticence.

There is an other disturbing fact about them. They haven't even kissed.

There is enough to be suspicious about their relationship. My opinion therefore is that Shannon originally loved Battler and he made a promise to her. That promise was unfulfilled, Shannon awaited and awaited (indeed 10 years serving the Ushiromiya for a fukuin child is odd), until she finally gave up and decided to try to love someone else. At first it seemed to work, but Shannon maybe didn't realize herself that she wasn't really in love with George... until Battler came back.

And this fulfill both the fact that Battler committed a sin 6 years ago, and that because of his sin people die. Also it is hinted that it is because he came back that people die. Something also hints that Battler was "too late".

Now you could think that Shannon is killing everyone. But why? Because she's confused? Because she'd rather kill anyone than having to make a choice?

I have a better proposal. Shannon refuses George, George asks why and he learns that it is because of Battler. George gets mad, and he can't control his anger, he ends up killing Shannon. This makes him go even crazier and in his delusions he begins to believe in the witch and the epitah.

"In the end the witch will be revived and all the dead will be resurrected"

And not only that. Among the other prizes there is the "revival of the lost love".

Having no other choice to escape from this nightmare, George escape inside this delusion. Kinzo believed in the witch, Kinzo did all of this to revive her loved one. And so George decides to do the same. George actually said that, he did say that he would do that to revive the one he loved.

So George after killing Shannon, he kills five more people, for the purpose of fulfilling the ritual described in the epitaph. Th Rokkenjima murder mystery is nothing but a misinterpretation of the epitaph. That is consistent with the half assed job on recreating the murder.

However as I said there are things that do not match. The main problem are Beatrice's letters. Beatrice can't be George, in this case I'd say that Beatrice is probably Jessica, and along with the servants is performing a great plan in accordance with Kinzo's last will.

Kinzo's last will is something that has been hinted in ep1 and ep2, and it is arguably a very important part of the plot. However it is practically impossible that it is related to the murders, because you can't possibly match it with Battler's sin. So Kinzo's plan doesn't involve murder.
It does however involve the epitaph and its solution, and ultimately the election of the new head.

If we can trust Ep5 at least to a certain degree, the fact that Battler receives the ring along with Beatrice's congratulations, this scenario is quite possible.

So how do George's murders and Beatrice's game collide? Maybe George managed to get the cooperation of the "fake" Beatrice (i.e. Jessica), or maybe they just happen to intertwine each other. This is a piece of the picture that I still miss.

EDIT: I forgot to tell another probable hint about George being the mastermind. Why Eva would keep silent and never say anything about what happened on Rokkenjima? Doesn't she want to find the bastard that killed her son and her husband? Seriously? What could stop her?

Can you find a better explanation than: "it was her son who caused all that"

Quote:
I'd also add Kumasawa to your list... even if she is an accomplice, I doubt a woman of her age is capable of committing most of the murders.
I also would exclude her, but with a lesser probability of the previous ones. In this tier however I place Nanjo and Genji as well.
That's because Kumasawa, Nanjo and Genji are not murderers. Now if Beatrice said that they didn't kill anyone, that would be different. But I can hardly see how the schemer of serial murder wouldn't be considered a murderer. Usually the one who orders a kill is more culprit than the one who performs it, and it is a murderer himself. Saying otherwise is like saying that a gun is the murderer not the one who pushed the trigger.
In such case if Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa have no murderous intent in ep1, how can they have it in other episodes? It is clear that the game pieces have a distinct personality and they can't suddenly change it. So Those three are beyond suspicion to me. Plus they are all too old. Genji maybe could pull it off, but the culprit is the butler? Seriously? Let's just say no.
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Old 2009-11-24, 15:34   Link #3492
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Spoiler for size:
I had a very similar theory a while back and the more I think about this the more it makes sense. This theory explains why the cousins are not targeted for the first twilight (ignore episode 5 )

George is very unsuspicious. Almost no one would expect him to turn out to be the mastermind. But I think the details regarding why he would do it are incomplete at the moment.

Some problems:
-In episode 3 the first twilight appears to be something that was planned well in advance. Was he expecting Shannon's rejection well before they made it on to the island?
-In episode 4 he was not there when they recognized the existence of Kinzo.
-In episode 5 he was killed in the first twilight.

Episode 5 causes some problems with the theory but I think it's a very good one.
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Old 2009-11-24, 16:29   Link #3493
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Old 2009-11-24, 16:42   Link #3494
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I had a very similar theory a while back and the more I think about this the more it makes sense. This theory explains why the cousins are not targeted for the first twilight (ignore episode 5 )

George is very unsuspicious. Almost no one would expect him to turn out to be the mastermind. But I think the details regarding why he would do it are incomplete at the moment.

Some problems:
-In episode 3 the first twilight appears to be something that was planned well in advance. Was he expecting Shannon's rejection well before they made it on to the island?
-In episode 4 he was not there when they recognized the existence of Kinzo.
-In episode 5 he was killed in the first twilight.

Episode 5 causes some problems with the theory but I think it's a very good one.
His death in Episode 5 could be explained by something like a mutual kill, and there were no later deaths except Hideyoshi (who might not have actually died), so it's not an insurmountable problem. We would have to suppose that George proposed to Shannon off-screen though, maybe while Battler and Erika were busy with the epitaph.

The grounds for suspecting George are pretty solid, but I don't think the motive works for all games. It would explain Episodes 1 and 3, but in Episodes 2 and 4 Shannon didn't die until late in the ceremony, and she didn't die at all in Episode 5. You can still theorize that George started killing as a result of being rejected, but there'd have to be some other motivation behind it besides resurrecting Shannon. The purpose of the epitaph murders is not to get revenge on someone, so what does that leave? (Maybe a second culprit who was responsible for the first twilight in Episodes 2, 4, and 5?)

Another question is: why was Battler always left alive until the end in the first four games? I could understand some resentment toward Battler if George found out that Shannon was in love with him, but revenge is ruled out as a motive, and the purpose is not to make Battler feel fear either. It's possible that Shannon didn't actually tell George that she was in love with Battler specifically, but in that case you'd expect him to have become a sacrifice at some point just at random.
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Old 2009-11-24, 16:59   Link #3495
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His death in Episode 5 could be explained by something like a mutual kill, and there were no later deaths except Hideyoshi (who might not have actually died), so it's not an insurmountable problem. We would have to suppose that George proposed to Shannon off-screen though, maybe while Battler and Erika were busy with the epitaph.

The grounds for suspecting George are pretty solid, but I don't think the motive works for all games. It would explain Episodes 1 and 3, but in Episodes 2 and 4 Shannon didn't die until late in the ceremony, and she didn't die at all in Episode 5. You can still theorize that George started killing as a result of being rejected, but there'd have to be some other motivation behind it besides resurrecting Shannon. The purpose of the epitaph murders is not to get revenge on someone, so what does that leave? (Maybe a second culprit who was responsible for the first twilight in Episodes 2, 4, and 5?)

Another question is: why was Battler always left alive until the end in the first four games? I could understand some resentment toward Battler if George found out that Shannon was in love with him, but revenge is ruled out as a motive, and the purpose is not to make Battler feel fear either. It's possible that Shannon didn't actually tell George that she was in love with Battler specifically, but in that case you'd expect him to have become a sacrifice at some point just at random.
Read Renall's explanation of Virgilia's episode 5 red text:
Spoiler for Renall's explanation:

I think the murders can be about revenge. In my short version of Jan-Poo's theory I posted a while ago: Shannon rejects George but she doesn't specifically mention Battler as being the reason. She quickly makes up something that leads George to believe the everyone in the family except for Battler (since he was gone for six years) could have lead to Shannon rejecting him.
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Old 2009-11-24, 17:08   Link #3496
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Spoiler for Jan-Poo's hypothesis:
I admit myself that the theory I have exposed has many weak points anyway I'll try to find a possible explanation for your questions.

1) In episode1 and 3 that would happen around midnight when he proposed. However as Lyricalaura noted, this doesn't work with other episodes. And therefore you'd need to find another explanation.
2) This is probably part of the Beatrice game connection. Obviously the one who mostly wants Battler to stay alive till the end is Beatrice. If George is the mastermind of the murders then that means he somehow became aware of this game and he knows the importance of Battler staying alive till the end.
3) forget the staking problem, it is harder to explain how they have been killed. Then whoever killed them could also do the staking. Obviously George can't be the killer of most murders. That means someone else is doing most of the killings, as an accomplice or as someone that has been manipulated by him. In Ep1 that could be Kanon for example, but how he could achieve that is still a mystery. A blackmail system could be a possibility since it was hinted in ep5.

However Kanon is pretty high in my mastermind suspect list, close to George.
And Kanon is also my third choice in possible Beatrice list, and second choice in "person whom Battler as sinned against".

@Lyricalaura
If Beatrice is not the killer nor the mastermind of the murders then the possibility that people are killed for vengeance, pleasure or money, exists. Red doesn't deny that.
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Old 2009-11-24, 17:18   Link #3497
Renall
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Battler's survival is statistically unlikely if all murder choices are random. However, we don't believe that surely since none of us seems to buy that the ritual is really a magic set of sacrifices chosen at random.

So Battler's survivability is explicable:

ep1: He's with a large group the whole time. He's not a good First Twilight choice because he's in the room with the other cousins at night, nor is he in the mansion. He spends most of the rest of the episode in the largest possible group.

ep2: Again, he's with a group most of the time, then with Rosa until the end when she runs him out. Not an especially good choice.

ep3: Once again, with the cousins at the well-guarded guesthouse, then with Eva.

ep4: This is the oddity. He's isolated at the guesthouse with Maria and apparently not being watched that closely. It wouldn't be hard to kill him and Maria, but nobody tries. Then he's alone, by himself, outside the mansion. Nothing happens. He meets "Beatrice," and this might be a hint; THIS time, someone probably DOES want him alive. After that, Battler never meets anyone. It's possible everyone is already dead. If they aren't, then he either lucks out or isn't important to them.

ep5: This is weird in many ways, but he solves the epitaph and while this might make him a target, it could also cause others to act to protect him. For instance, if the First Twilight is as it appears, Rudolf and Kyrie look awfully suspicious. That said, the ep5 killings are so strange that I'm not yet comfortable saying they even specifically happened as we're shown. Let alone the Hideyoshi matter.

Bluntly, Battler would not be much of a target under most normal theories. If the "Beatrice" killer wants him to remember his sin, she wants him alive. Everyone else, if motivated by money, vengeance, paranoia, whatever, has no particular reason to consider Battler a major threat, as he's been away for so long and is so low on the succession list.
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Old 2009-11-24, 17:25   Link #3498
Kitsu
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Somethin feels off the more I think about Shannon loving Battler and therefore rejecting George. No, the whole Jessica or Shannon harbour feelings for Battler is completly off.
Beatrice wants Battler to find the truth, right?
Then if George/Shannon's "breaking" relationship is such a important motive for the murders why would Beatrice show Battler how nice the relationship is etc in her magic scenes and other fake scenes? Wouldn't that be counterproductive??
At first (until Episde 4 or sumthing) I believed Beatrice was showing him thos scenes to "please" him and not showing him the cruel truth. Giving him a truth he might be able to accept..but since Episode 5 her objective is more clear and his to show him the truth. But showing him the exact oppsite knowingly that he won't doubt it since he believes everything is alright with them is totally counterproductive.
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Old 2009-11-24, 17:49   Link #3499
chounokoe
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I think one of the biggest problems we have are the many factors that appear on Rokkenjima that can, but are not assured to be connected to the crime at all.
The biggest one's are the letters, the staking and the epitaph.

After comparing all 5 games again I came to the conclusion that in the end only two weapon's were required for the actual murders, that would be a gun for nearly all the murders in Episodes 1, 3 and 4 and an additional blade-weapon in Episodes 2 and 5.
The stakes, as implied by Episode 4, were probably added to the corpses after death. It doesn't even have to be the killer who adds the stakes later on, it could just be someone who wants top profit from the murders, recreating the legend of Beatrice.

The letters at first actually seem to go against the murders that occur after we know that the gold being found should stop the killing, yet Eva-Beatrice (who or whatever she is) refused to go along with that plan and continued the murders.
The 'Beatrice' who sends the letters and promises to keep her promises appears to be different from the person ignoring that and continuing the killings.

Of course we don't know if in any Episode besides 3 and 5 the gold was found at all, but there being 3 bars present in Episode 2 highly suggests that it is possible...and we learned that at least Kumasawa also seemed to search for the gold, maybe everyone is actually searching for it more or less consciously.

The epitaph can so far probably be put aside as a map to the gold and nothing more and being only misinterpreted by the culprit. Yet this seems to be a bit to easy again, as I see another agenda behind the epitaph that I can't pinpoint just yet.
Who says that Kinzo actually placed the Epitaph and the protrait there to give everybody a chance for the gold...it seems to easy considering he actually hated the guts of every one member of his family, so why would he give them a fair chance...many things about 'living Kinzo' just don't seem to add up.

Then something that speaks against the murders being just a result of a chain reaction of unfortunate events (as proposed in the last George theory) would be the bank accounts left for certain relatives who were sure to not have any contact to Rokkenjima at all.
Even assuming the letters really do come from the relatives themselves, if George for example just snapped and killed, how did they get the time and especially the money during the killings on Rokkenjima...they must have known that something was endangering their lives and they must have had a considerable money-source aiding them in something they did.
If it comes from the person who discovered the gold it does not add up, because we lack a motive for Eva giving unknown people and Ange(!!) money.
Rudolph for example actually suspected his own murder, which of course could point to him being among the culprits...yet maybe among people who were in on a bigger plan that actually involved the chance of being killed.

I still hope we will get an actual continuation of Episode 5 into another post-1986 world, so we can see how far things happen again. Being shown only once the world of 1998 still adds to many inconsistencies towards any theory offered concerning the murders on Rokkenjima so far.
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Old 2009-11-24, 18:14   Link #3500
rogerpepitone
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Renall: In episode 1, Battler goes to the kitchen alone. (When he meets Genji, Kanon, & Kumasawa; Maria later appears.) This is before the second twilight, though.
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