Coronavirus 2020-22

[Jaden]

1918 Flu was highly irregular in how the second wave came about so quickly, with much higher mortality. Since then, that virus has followed the usual evolutionary trend of becoming less fatal. That's why many people think that the second wave of 1918 had little to do with mutations - but then what? It's still a mystery.

If the same thing happens with Corona, current science has to revise some of its assumptions about viral pandemics. Probably won't happen, but I doubt that we have hit the peak yet, either. I think the peak will come sometime after everyone gets tired of trying to contain it.

[McW]

Not a good new, but health experts saw this possibility

https://www.ecowatch.com/coronavirus...647082756.html

Also could mean Sweden's effort was for nothing

[Key Board]

Sweden's death rate is the worst in Europe

I suspect they are pursuing herd immunity because of sunk cost fallacy, and they believe in Swedish moral exceptionalism.
Yes, sadly, it's not only right wingers who do it.

Last time I checked, herd immunity requires 70% of the population to have immunity. Any country intentionally pursuing that through intentional infections has more that a few loose screws or believe the propaganda "economist" are sprouting.

//

[Johnny Dy]

Originally Posted by Key Board

Sweden's death rate is the worst in Europe

To ma poor piples of Iurope, let's all become swedish and replenish their ranks!

[barcode120x]

Originally Posted by Johnny Dy

To ma poor piples of Iurope, let's all become swedish and replenish their ranks!

Side note, Sweden is actually top on my list of places to travel.

Serious note, this past week at my local hospital we have seen a significant decrease in covid patients or rule-out covid patients. Doesn't necessarily mean anything, but this past week at work it was a nice little break and just overall to see my unit (which is the designated covid unit) half full last week.

[Grifis]

I've been skeptical about the deaths number from the States so I wanted to compare number of registered deaths in earlier years vs. deaths this year to confirm the general number on COVID death but there's no data after March this year from the cdc website. Now is 6 months from March, they should at least have 1 month up after. I don't know if they're still playing with the numbers or they forgot to update the data.

[McW]

US says it won’t join global effort to find COVID-19 vaccine

Whatever you think of WHO, they're not the only organization involved and cooperation has other benefits for yourself and others.

Originally Posted by Grifis

I've been skeptical about the deaths number from the States so I wanted to compare number of registered deaths in earlier years vs. deaths this year to confirm the general number on COVID death but there's no data after March this year from the cdc website. Now is 6 months from March, they should at least have 1 month up after. I don't know if they're still playing with the numbers or they forgot to update the data.

Speculation, they doing what they claimed China was doing. Then again is speculation, I have no source of info that 100% confirm this.

[EroKing]

India will supply coronavirus vaccines to the world — will its people benefit?

Without India, there won’t be enough vaccines to save the world, said Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, during an online vaccine symposium organized by the Indian government in July.

The good.

The world’s largest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India in Pune, has an agreement to manufacture one billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine being developed by scientists at the University of Oxford, UK, and UK pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca if it is approved for use. The vaccine is currently undergoing phase III clinical trials in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States to test its effectiveness.

If the vaccine works, the Serum Institute and the Indian government have committed to reserve half the company’s stock of it for India, and to supply half to low-income nations through GAVI, a funder of immunizations for low-income nations, says Adar Poonawalla, Serum’s chief executive.

So far, the company has invested 11 billion rupees (US$200 million) to manufacture the vaccine, and has produced about 2 million doses for use in regulatory clearances and testing, even before the trials have ended, Poonawalla says. Two factories that were producing other vaccines have been redirected to this effect, and the company can make 60 million to 70 million doses a month at full capacity, says Poonawalla.

“The decision [to stockpile the Oxford vaccine] has been solely taken to have a jump-start on manufacturing, to have enough doses available if the clinical trials prove successful,” says Poonawalla. If the vaccine doesn’t work, Serum will shift its attention to other candidates, he says. The company is also developing and testing four other COVID-19 vaccines — including two developed through in-house initiatives and two being developed in collaboration with biotechnology companies Novovax in Gaithersburg, Maryland, and Codagenix in Farmingdale, New York.

Drug firm Biologicals E, headquartered in Hyderabad, India, has also entered into a partnership to manufacture a vaccine candidate. This one is being developed by Janssen Pharmaceutica, based in Beerse, Belgium, and is currently going through phase early-stage safety trials. Biologicals E might also manufacture a candidate being developed by Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Texas, it says. And Indian Immunologicals, also in Hyderabad, is working with Australia’s Griffith University in Brisbane to test and manufacture the university’s vaccine. Two other Indian companies — Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech and Zydus Cadila in Ahmedabad — are working on vaccines that are in phase I and II trials.

Scientists have applauded the Indian government for allowing the country’s pharmaceutical companies to export some of their vaccine stocks to other nations. The decision to share supplies contrasts with the stance of nations such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which have each pre-ordered hundreds of millions of doses of coronavirus vaccines under development, enough to supply their respective populations many times over.

The bad.

But even with manufacturer's commitment to supply a portion of their vaccines locally, scientists say that making the required 400 million doses for people who are most at risk of contracting severe COVID-19 will still take time. And by that point, the brunt of the epidemic, which is currently in major cities, will probably have shifted to rural areas, where health services are weaker, says Deo.

This means that the biggest hurdle will be getting vaccines to people across India. “It is a huge challenge,” says Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi and a member of the government’s vaccine task force. “India is a huge country, we have a very large population and we have remote areas, like the Northeast and Ladakh [in the Himalayas].”

The immunization programme will probably take years, says Kang. One of the country’s largest vaccination campaigns so far — delivery of the measles–rubella vaccine to 405 million children, starting in 2017 — has taken 3 years.

Guleria says that innovative approaches will be needed to distribute vaccines in rural and remote regions. He says national election campaigns could offer lessons. In 2019, 11 million poll workers journeyed across India to set up polling stations, so that people didn’t need to travel more than 2 kilometres to vote. The network reached 900 million voters, including those in the most remote areas, in just over 6 weeks. A similar network of health officials to give vaccines could cover much of the country, says Guleria.

But it’s not as simple as getting the vaccine to people, says Kang. “The vaccine has to be kept cold, people have to be trained.” It will also be expensive to buy syringes and needles, to train people to vaccinate, and to purchase the vaccine.

The Serum Institute has priced the Oxford vaccine at 225 rupees (US$3) a dose. That means the cost of vaccinating 400 million people will be at least $1.2 billion. Typically, the government buys vaccines for less than the price of bottled water — 60 rupees. “We have never paid $3 for a vaccine,” Kang says.

It’s unlikely that the Indian government will bear the entire cost of immunizing its people, Deo notes. It will probably pay for vaccinations for the poorest citizens, and ask everyone else to buy their own vaccines, he says.

[MeoTwister5]

Assuming vaccines pass Phase III, the main issue as usually brought up is that supply will likely not keep up with demand for the first few months, if not a year.

And we can expect rich countries to bid out poorer countries for supplies. Insomuch as I admire what GAVI's been trying to do, especially in the past, the proposals they raised still doesn't address the inequality of healthcare in this sector.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by Grifis

I've been skeptical about the deaths number from the States so I wanted to compare number of registered deaths in earlier years vs. deaths this year to confirm the general number on COVID death but there's no data after March this year from the cdc website. Now is 6 months from March, they should at least have 1 month up after. I don't know if they're still playing with the numbers or they forgot to update the data.

Search for "excess deaths". Here's one source:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ng-deaths.html

According to this, the number of excess deaths in the US between 1st March and 1st August was 213,500 (vs 154,917 reported COVID-19 deaths in the same period).

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

the main issue as usually brought up is that supply will likely not keep up with demand for the first few months, if not a year.

If covid19 becomes the new influenza, meaning that you will need a new vaccine each year (that will never have a 100% effectivity since mutations of the virus never stop) then the main issue would be that by the time said vaccine becomes available for not rich countries, by that time it will have a very low effectivity making it basically worthless.

Heck, I fear that it might even be nearly worthless by the time vials with the vaccine reach 1st world health clinics >_<

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Grifis

I've been skeptical about the deaths number from the States so I wanted to compare number of registered deaths in earlier years vs. deaths this year

That's usually called the "excess deaths" figure. The New York Times releases updated values for this measure every day.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ng-deaths.html

Between March 1st and August 1st, "excess" deaths exceeded deaths attributed to the coronavirus by over 58,000.

They also have a detailed report for US states: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...deaths-us.html

"Across the United States [through July 25th], at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus. "

Wacky conspiracy theories about the reported figures for cases and deaths abound on right-wing social media sites. On Tuesday Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa and a dedicated Trumpist, claimed that the figures were overstated because doctors got paid more for COVID cases than for other treatments. There is no evidence for this. There's also the distortion that, because the CDC said only 6% of deaths from COVID did not involve a co-moridibity, the real death toll is around 10,000 . At base, all of these theories rest on the presumption that the "deep state" and Democrats are hyping the death toll to hurt Trump.

[Key Board]

The vaccine being developed without global participation and rushed just before the election doesn't fill me with confidence.

And if the vaccine is faulty in anyway it will damage the trust in vaccines

//

[Psyco Diver]

Originally Posted by Key Board

The vaccine being developed without global participation and rushed just before the election doesn't fill me with confidence.

And if the vaccine is faulty in anyway it will damage the trust in vaccines

//

Many people are thinking the same thing, i know I'm giving it a year before I even consider getting let alone my family

[Grifis]

I'm trying to get numbers from here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/p...nal-tables.htm

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Grifis

I'm trying to get numbers from here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/p...nal-tables.htm

The fact that that page ends abruptly in March makes me think you won't see any more numbers for 2020 as long as Trump is in office. The politicization of the CDC is one of the more horrible side-effects of COVID. Now, with Trump's efforts to push out a vaccine before it has been adequately tested, it looks like it's the FDA's turn.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/o...ine-trump.html

[Grifis]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

The fact that that page ends abruptly in March makes me think you won't see any more numbers for 2020 as long as Trump is in office. The politicization of the CDC is one of the more horrible side-effects of COVID. Now, with Trump's efforts to push out a vaccine before it has been adequately tested, it looks like it's the FDA's turn.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/o...ine-trump.html

You're insinuating Trump somehow can control these agencies. If he has control, FDA wouldn't revoke the use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine which Trump voiced support. I knew about how it worked with some people before Trump even spoke of it. You only like conspiracy theories when it works for your narrative. I on the other hand see Trump as a victim of this COVID political game and he's trying his best to resolve the issue as people are blaming him for it.

[serenade_beta]

Well, for the people that wonder what the people that still support Trump are thinking...

[Magin]

Originally Posted by Grifis

You're insinuating Trump somehow can control these agencies. If he has control, FDA wouldn't revoke the use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine which Trump voiced support. I knew about how it worked with some people before Trump even spoke of it. You only like conspiracy theories when it works for your narrative. I on the other hand see Trump as a victim of this COVID political game and he's trying his best to resolve the issue as people are blaming him for it.

On one hand, it is technically true to say Trump has been a victim of the Covid situation- it's occurring while he's president, and it's a completely new disease that we currently have no cure for.

ON THE OTHER HAND, there's SOOOO much more he could've done! I'm realistic enough to know that no matter what, people were going to die no matter what- such is the price for trial and error with dealing with something current science hasn't been able to beat yet. BUT... he could've encouraged folks to wear masks and to stay home. He could've listened to Dr. Fauci, the medical expert throughout this entire thing, about how to truly minimize deaths. Instead, Trump called it a hoax from the very beginning, only recently changing his tune. Hell, Obama actually wrote up a playbook on how to handle possible situations like this- but Trump, in his arrogance (and probably overall hatred of Obama) threw that playbook away and hasn't even bothered to try and find it again.

Trump could've been a true hero and 100% guaranteed his re-election in November. But no, he's allowed the US to become the most infected and highest death toll country through this pandemic. This is the slogan I'm sticking with- Trump lied, people died.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Magin

Trump could've been a true hero and 100% guaranteed his re-election in November.

The irony of it all is that if he had closed the borders to travelers from china & europe like he did with third world countries, he would have averted most of the damage. If furthermore he had used the intelligence agencies to track infected people he could have even reduced infections to the levels countries like iceland and hong kong have achieved.

Meanwhile trumptards are floating the idea that since on death certificates on the USA only 6% report only covid19 as cause of death, that is the real death toll of this pandemic, all other people would have died anyway this year they say, grasping at straws with true idiocy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU

I have no doubt the CDC like the National Hurricane Center have no appetite for angering the orange ape by saying the truth he does not like to hear or see.