North Korea Crisis

[relentlessflame]

Let me just be clear that all this quasi-racist name-calling and stereotyping over the last few pages is not useful or helpful. Nobody likes being pigeon-holed into a cultural stereotype or dismissed categorically. If it's too difficult to do analysis without resorting to this sort of biased judging, then perhaps it's better to stick to the news. This is an important global issue, and we don't need it to be bogged-down by unneeded racial/cultural prejudice.

[KiraYamatoFan]

Anyway, it's really depressing to see the consistent stupidity from NK when they keep trying pushing their luck again. The old saying still holds: you play with fire, you'll end up getting burned.

They dig themselves in the hole, so no one should be surprised if the whole world gives them the middle finger even when the need for aid becomes a real emergency.

[Sumeragi]

Sure, except blood is thicker than water for quite a few people.

[Yu Ominae]

Hmmm... And I'm suppose to fly back to Manila by the 10th or so.

Oh well hopefully I'll survive.

Also word from people in Pyongyang said that life is normal there like those from the tourism industry...

[Gintokifan22]

The news is getting me more and more worried about this, I hope things get better over time =/

[killer3000ad]

NK pulling out workers from joint industrial zone and suspending operations there

2 days left till the 10th.

[JokerD]

Even with all this buster, I don't think that NK is stupid enough to go to war. They shouldn't be quite that stupid...

Sucks to be the guys in SK's military conscription army when they do though. The thing about conscripted armies, you can never be quite sure on the quality outside of training. I mean, who wants to die when you are forced into the army.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by JokerD

Even with all this buster, I don't think that NK is stupid enough to go to war. They shouldn't be quite that stupid...

Sucks to be the guys in SK's military conscription army when they do though. The thing about conscripted armies, you can never be quite sure on the quality outside of training. I mean, who wants to die when you are forced into the army.

I am suspecting that Kim Jong Un WANTED a war because he couldn't control his own generals, who are mocking him for being a Western fatso ruling a superior Eastern country.

Kim is playing hard to set the 7th Fleet on them while he flees, or a conflict to teach his generals a lesson that they need him as much as he needs them. But the Americans aren't interested in facing China one more time because they last time they did, China singlehandedly beat back the entire NATO.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by JokerD

Even with all this buster, I don't think that NK is stupid enough to go to war. They shouldn't be quite that stupid...

Sucks to be the guys in SK's military conscription army when they do though. The thing about conscripted armies, you can never be quite sure on the quality outside of training. I mean, who wants to die when you are forced into the army.

At the very least, North Korea shouldn't be stupid enough to go to war while the USA and ROK are in the middle of wargames, where they'd theoretically be able to most rapidly transition from a peacetime to war time situation.


Conscription can be a bit finicky sometimes, but there IS the extra motivation factor when you're homeland is under direct and imminent threat. If the Kim's go and start mass shelling Seoul where allot of these recruits undoubtedly come from, it'd be very unwise to hope that the South Korean conscripts get tired of fighting.



If anything, these hostilities are likely to hasten South Korea's adoption of more advanced weapon systems. Like the K21 AFV and the K2 Main Battle tank. Those vehicles have a number of characteristics that'd make them more advantageous to fighting in mountain combat than some of the older ROK kit (like the K21 having air burst 40mm rounds, and the K2 being extremely mobile over rough terrain, and having advanced missle defense systems).


Also, if this article is accurate, there's one group that's very happy about these current tensions.

Before his escape from North Korea, Lee Gi-chul served as a lieutenant in the Korean People's army, part of the second war training unit responsible for guerrilla warfare.

He said that although the outside world might not enjoy growing animosities between North Korea and the west, it was something his fellow soldiers looked forward to. Not because they were overly patriotic, but because this was the only time they were fed properly.

During annual military drills between the US and South Korea, "we had to spend several nights in the field, march long distances at night, and even during rest, keep our boots on and sleep in short bursts," he said. "Nevertheless, we were happy because this was about the only time we received regular meals: 800g of daily rations. We called it a meal 'above the bowl' because normally there was so little rice in our bowls that you could see to the bottom before you even started eating."

Another former soldier in exile, Kim Hyun-soo, used to work in construction unit 501. "Throughout the year we did hard labour at construction sites or had to work on a farm. But during times of war readiness, the hard labour stopped. All we had to do was turn up to work and wait for orders. When we had to do night shifts in the field, no one took it seriously. Someone would always sneak out a few bottles of alcohol for us to drink at night." Soldiers would play card games while on standby, Kim said.

For ordinary North Koreans however, the military drills are considered more of a nuisance. Since soldiers have to relocate and remain in a restricted area for long periods, they are sent by senior officers into neighbouring villages to demand donations from farmers. One North Korean refugee said that they would "voluntarily offer goods to the soldiers, because no matter how much they saved for themselves, the soldiers would end up finding and stealing their property".

Kim added: "For North Korean soldiers, the US-ROK joint drills are golden days."

Assuming this was still accurate, it rather brings into question the actual combat readiness of a good chunk of the DPRK army, what if they're often being used farm/manual labor not related to military drilling, and the only time they get adequate food is when it's time to do intimidation maneuvers against the south.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

I am suspecting that Kim Jong Un WANTED a war because he couldn't control his own generals, who are mocking him for being a Western fatso ruling a superior Eastern country.

Kim is playing hard to set the 7th Fleet on them while he flees, or a conflict to teach his generals a lesson that they need him as much as he needs them. But the Americans aren't interested in facing China one more time because they last time they did, China singlehandedly beat back the entire NATO.

To be fair, anybody can beat NATO. You can't win a war on a committee.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

To be fair, anybody can beat NATO. You can't win a war on a committee.

Well they went up against flamethrowers without burn heal.

[Sumeragi]

To be fair, anyone can beat anyone, because just about everyone rather have peace instead of war.

And sometimes, it isn't just worth fighting against a military that needs to maintain companies to fund itself.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Well they went up against flamethrowers without burn heal.

They sent 15,000 people against North Korea.

Seriously. 15,000 people. I doubt even one of them had a rifle, probably just cooks and cleaners.

Mind you, not to imply a full logistic crew like cooks nurses are unimportant, but to claim NATO fought North Korean+ Chinese is a joke.

Edit: To be specific, European NATO countries.

[JokerD]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

Conscription can be a bit finicky sometimes, but there IS the extra motivation factor when you're homeland is under direct and imminent threat. If the Kim's go and start mass shelling Seoul where allot of these recruits undoubtedly come from, it'd be very unwise to hope that the South Korean conscripts get tired of fighting.

Depends, I've had a friend who told me (during my army reserves training) that he would grab his rifle and head home to protect his family in the event of any attack. The thing about a professional army, you know that they signed up for it and they are mentally prepared for it. For a conscript one, you are pretty much forced to do it. If you are on the eastern front while the your home on the west side is being attacked, you would get worried for your home and family I guess....

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by JokerD

Depends, I've had a friend who told me (during my army reserves training) that he would grab his rifle and head home to protect his family in the event of any attack. The thing about a professional army, you know that they signed up for it and they are mentally prepared for it. For a conscript one, you are pretty much forced to do it. If you are on the eastern front while the your home on the west side is being attacked, you would get worried for your home and family I guess....

*looks at his loadout*

I am glad I carry a machine gun to stand a better chance.

Although it might be interesting to note that the South Koreans may not have a similar mentality of defending their home in this case; my friend there, a border MP during his days, told me that there is some sort of a mass evacuation plan for women/children/old southwards should the North Koreans invade; there is enough gun stores in every state to do a mass mobilisation of up to 75% of the conscripted population within half-an-hour.

And if they don't, they would be dragged out of their homes. It is considered treason not to mobilise at the moment, and you know the standard punishment for such treason - getting shot dead in front of your family members.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

there is enough gun stores in every state to do a mass mobilisation of up to 75% of the conscripted population within half-an-hour.

What gun stores?

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

What gun stores?

I have to agree with Sumeragi for once

http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/south-korea

[Sumeragi]

Maybe S-chan meant gun storages.

[Ithekro]

I'd imagine they would have a lot of reserve bases around the country to store all the arms the reserve soldiers would normally used when called up. Plus maybe a store of the older weapons used over the years to arm everyone else.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

If news about another NK nuclear text coming up is true, I am prepared to declare nothing will happen.

Put simply, if NK was prepared for real war, they wouldn't be wasting the limited materials to detonate another test nuke. They would have spared it for either offence or defence.

The fact that they are doing another test detonation is proof that they know they aren't going to do anything at all. That they are not really prepared for war in the immediate future.