Hyouka - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Soul Assassin

I'm basing my statements from memory, but when Oreki concluded the mystery, he did not specify the tools and method of murder the suspect used, only how the killer is able to get into the victim's room without suspicion. There's also blood used as props, if that was the case then the murderer will have traces on blood either on them or the tool they used. Which raises a question on why there was no suspicion, even on the suspect themselves, of blood?

Which leads me to think that the rope might play a role on that somehow, but how, I can't think further than that...

Thats an easy one. because there is a discrepancy between the amount of blood that was used and the amount that should have been used. Hongou's orignal script makes me question whether Katiou is even dead or just unconcious. She also just wrote that his arm was badly wounded - there was nothing about it being severed.
I also question whther this is really the crime scene...

[Hiroi Sekai]

Man, all the facts add up in a simple matter here, but it turned out to be so boring as a result. Walk in, kill, leave, lock door, film. It's so cut and paste and leaves a sour taste in my mouth, as if something was left half-solved for the sake of convenience.

I do hope they expand a bit on other stuff at least. Why the hell did they even need the scene showing that Hongou requested rope and that Kounosu was the one to be using it? Did they bring it onto the set so she could shove it in her backpack and never mention it again?

[unsuspectingvisitor]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

She didin't really find it but knew where it was from start, as she was the one suggesting to go in this specidic building.
If you examine the rope they have shown us you will quickly realize that it is a rope meant for climbing. --> She is in the mountaineering club...

Ad 7th person: No he is right; hongou was looking for a 7th actor.

Plus she is the only one able to Pull this crme off using a rope atm - and Knox 7th the detective himself must not commit the crime.

Wrong, going to the office to look for keys is the natural thing to do. It just a simple common sense. For instance, you're in a big city and need to find a place to stay, let say a motel. Where's do you go when you want pay for a room to get a room key?

I don't think it's right to assume that she was the culprit just from things like that so I'll try to prove that she was the detective and not the culprit. First of all, about kounosu being in the mountaineer club. Was this information even said in the movie or in the story? I don't remember hearing this or this even mentioned by the character while the movie plays so I guess it wasn't in the story. Even if this information is true, I think she was a mountaineer in real life but not in that mystery movie that they are doing.Now about that rope, anyone can use a rope for climbing so no point in claiming that she was the only one of them who is capable of using that a rope.

Anyway, Speaking of ropes, it wasn't said where the rope comes from but there is one possible place where the culprit might have got it. Inside the equipment room.

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by papermario13689

Man, all the facts add up in a simple matter here, but it turned out to be so boring as a result. Walk in, kill, leave, lock door, film. It's so cut and paste and leaves a sour taste in my mouth, as if something was left half-solved for the sake of convenience.

I do hope they expand a bit on other stuff at least. Why the hell did they even need the scene showing that Hongou requested rope and that Kounosu was the one to be using it? Did they bring it onto the set so she could shove it in her backpack and never mention it again?

Oreki's solution is the best you can make out of what has been shown. Its not Hongou's true intention though.
Just like the rest of her class oreki tried to solve the movie, not Hongou's intention.
And i can btw assure you that this solution is wrong - It violates Knox 1, since we were allowed to see through the culprits eyes.
Another thing is how closed rooms are solved:

1- The was no crime
2- The culprit is hiding in the room and uses the confusion to get out
3- The room was never truly a locked room

ad 1 - possible, since Hongou's script raises the question if she wanted him dead or unconcious; She wrote Kaitou's arm is badly wounded, there was no word about his arm being severed. So he might have hurt himself somehow (with a rope)
ad 2 - Not possible - in fact, Hongou wanted to exclude this solution as she told the girls to stay by the door
ad 3 - You can either use the master key or pretend that the room was locked, a Key-switch is also possible.

Which does again leave us with two suspects: Kounosu and Katsuta

Originally Posted by unsuspectingvisitor

Anyway, Speaking of ropes, it wasn't said where the rope comes from but there is one possible place where the culprit might have got it. Inside the equipment room.

A rope maybe, but not the kind we were shown. The rope they showed us is used for mounteneering.
And while I agree that Sugimura could have easily run around the front, thus avoiding the other characters eyes, one could still say the same about Katsuta.

However, this crime was planned beforehand and not just 'Oh I found a rope, now I could go outside and murder Kaitou' so you actually have to know the building which Kounosu does, moreover she was the one suggesting it.
When distributing the keys she also put them on the table (you can count that she took 5 keys and put all 5 there) - which is anothe rproblem.

- Why would she put 5 keys on the table in the first place if she was going to take one anyway?
if you are going to keep a key you don't put all of them on the table and wait until the victim takes a key to just take one yourself afterwards (btw a key allowing her to reach his room), but would put four keys on the table while keeping one.

No matter how you look at her shes suspicious without end.

Another problem is that no one was designated as the detective, which actually points to the 7th person being it since she couldn't find one yet.

[j4c06]

For what it's worth, nobody dies in any of the Sherlock Holmes stories Hongou liked. Moreover, in her top-3 there is either someone with a double identity, or presumed dead, or both...

[Skane]

Eba is Hongou?

Natch.

[ThereminVox]

Originally Posted by j4c06

For what it's worth, nobody dies in any of the Sherlock Holmes stories Hongou liked. Moreover, in her top-3 there is either someone with a double identity, or presumed dead, or both...

If that's true, I am amazed that you're apparently the first to bring this up. I guess none of us are big ACD readers.

Part of me rejects the idea just because I don't particularly care for it, but there is nothing in the meta narrative to disprove the possibility.

Here's just one of many ways it could fit the story:

- We see in episode 8 the conversation where (presumably) Irisu tells (presumably) Hongou that "No matter what I do, it won't work out the way you intended."
- If this is because of continuity failure by the production team, the one oddity we have is the massive blood loss which was not originally intended. In addition, the script does not appear to mention a severed arm.
- This theatrical zeal could cause big problems, especially if the rope (which must support a person's weight) is intended for use by Kaitou, who is now missing a goddamned arm.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by j4c06

For what it's worth, nobody dies in any of the Sherlock Holmes stories Hongou liked. Moreover, in her top-3 there is either someone with a double identity, or presumed dead, or both...

Originally Posted by ThereminVox

If that's true, I am amazed that you're apparently the first to bring this up. I guess none of us are big ACD readers.

Part of me rejects the idea just because I don't particularly care for it, but there is nothing in the meta narrative to disprove the possibility.

Here's just one of many ways it could fit the story:

- We see in episode 8 the conversation where (presumably) Irisu tells (presumably) Hongou that "No matter what I do, it won't work out the way you intended."
- If this is because of continuity failure by the production team, the one oddity we have is the massive blood loss which was not originally intended. In addition, the script does not appear to mention a severed arm.
- This theatrical zeal could cause big problems, especially if the rope (which must support a person's weight) is intended for use by Kaitou, who is now missing a goddamned arm.

You know, this gives me an idea as to why Hongou didn't finish the script, and/or didn't tell anybody who committed the crime.

Perhaps the props guy's theatrical zeal with massive amounts of added blood and the severed arm basically ruined Hougou's narrative plans - It made it look like the victim was dead when he was simply meant to look KOed (hence the fact that Hongou didn't want as much blood).


Perhaps Hongou wanted a more grounded, "basic" Detective Story, whereas most everybody else wanted something flashy and bloody. If you look at the three theories that were pitched to Oreki in Episode 9, they all had a certain flashiness to them (especially the first and third theory).

[ele-ene-ene]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

3- The room was never truly a locked room

.

What if the window was open at the time of the crime?

Kounousu down the rope.

Enter through the open window.

She kills.

Close the door with the Kaitou's key and leaves it on the floor beside the body.

Goes out the window.

Close the window from outside. This would be more difficult. Maybe she does it support supporting her feet with her whole weight over the whole window frame while hanging from the rope. That would explain why it was so difficult to open the window after.

Climb up the rope. Thus, she goes in and out without stepping on the grass.

Then, she focusing the group's attention on the master keys, incriminating the cameraman who alone had access to these.

(Hence the master keys should be together in the ring)

The motive for the crime would be incriminate the cameraman. Haba Tomohiro was right: Kaitou was a random victim!!!

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by ele-ene-ene

What if the window was open at the time of the crime?

Kounousu down the rope.

Enter through the open window.

She kills.

Close the door with the Kaitou's key and leaves it on the floor beside the body.

Goes out the window.

Close the window from outside. This would be more difficult. Maybe she does it support supporting her feet with her whole weight over the whole window frame while hanging from the rope. That would explain why it was so difficult to open the window after.

Climb up the rope. Thus, she goes in and out without stepping on the grass.

Then, she focusing the group's attention on the master keys, incriminating the cameraman who alone had access to these.

(Hence the master keys should be together in the ring)

The motive for the crime would be incriminate the cameraman. Haba Tomohiro was right: Kaitou was a random victim!!!

No, just no.

1st - the Window in kaito's room hasen't been opened for years, you could see that when a boy tried to open it.

2nd - The window behind the tree iss not the window to Kaito's room, but one of the control rooms.

[ele-ene-ene]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

No, just no.

1st - the Window in kaito's room hasen't been opened for years, you could see that when a boy tried to open it.

Opening a window closed for years once or twice makes no difference. The relevant fact is: the window was not secured from inside the room. So it may have been closed from outside the room, if the window was open at the time of the crime.


The only established fact is that she Kounousu could not open the window from outside hanging from the rope.

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

2nd - The window behind the tree iss not the window to Kaito's room, but one of the control rooms.

The part of the tree shown in the picture hides the control room window, but the rest of the tree seems to hide all first floor windows on that section of the building.

I've added to the image what I think would be the rest of the tree and the building ( framed in red)



tomorrow we will know

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by ele-ene-ene

Opening a window closed for years once or twice makes no difference. The relevant fact is: the window was not secured from inside the room. So it may have been closed from outside the room, if the window was open at the time of the crime.


The only established fact is that she Kounousu could not open the window from outside hanging from the rope.




The part of the tree shown in the picture hides the control room window, but the rest of the tree seems to hide all first floor windows on that section of the building.

I've added to the image what I think would be the rest of the tree and the building ( framed in red)



tomorrow we will know

While entering through the control room windows is no problem at all(I even think this is how it was done), entering through the crime scene's window is.
And again, the window behind the tree is NOT the crime scene window, but the second control room's window.
Just look at the floor plan - the crime scene's window points backwards while the control room windows are on the right side of the building. If you look at your picture again you will see that the window hidden by the tree is indeed on the building's right side and thus not the crime scene window.

The window you are looking for, is however on the backside, while this one is on the right side - just rewatch the episode and look at the floor plan

[ele-ene-ene]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

And again, the window behind the tree is NOT the crime scene window, but the second control room's window.
Just look at the floor plan - the crime scene's window points backwards while the control room windows are on the right side of the building. If you look at your picture again you will see that the window hidden by the tree is indeed on the building's right side and thus not the crime scene window.

The window you are looking for, is however on the backside, while this one is on the right side - just rewatch the episode and look at the floor plan

I wrong about the window

thanks for clarifying

[Hiroi Sekai]

Well, now we know what was truly intended.

[Triple_R]

I have a theory on Oreki and Tomoe. I think my theory would go a long way to explaining why they are the way they are, and particularly why they relate to one another the way they do.

Tomoe strikes me as a pretty active, energetic, and generally upbeat person. There's a pretty good chance that Tomoe was a pretty accomplished and/or popular student when she was in school, and maybe she received a fair bit of praise from her friends and parents. It's conceivable that Mayaka may have played a role here in saying to Oreki a few times "Why aren't you more like your industrious sister?!".

Oreki saw what a high-achiever his older sister is, and he felt it would be hopeless for him to even try to measure up to her, so he just stopped trying. He adopted his "energy conservation" philosophy as a sort of pretext to justify his quitting like this. But in truth, the main issue is that Tomoe's success left Oreki feeling very "normal" by comparison. That's a big part of the reason why Oreki has a lower opinion of himself than most of his friends have of him.

Tomoe eventually picked up on Oreki developing a bit of an inferiority complex towards her, and that very much displeases her. I think that family is very important to Tomoe, and she doesn't want these issues to persist between her and her brother. So Tomoe takes a pretty active role in Oreki's life, and tries to get him to come out of his shell, and fully explore his own talents so that he'll feel better about himself, which in turn should improve the relationship between him and his sister.

Tomoe saw the Classics Club as a good first step in achieving that, and since Oreki joined it, we see Tomoe become increasingly active in Oreki's life.


So what do people think of my theory here?

[wandering-dreamer]

I think that sounds logical, we really don't know that much about Tomoe yet, except that she's rather perceptive and was personable enough that people who went to school years after her knew her, but it could also explain why she came home so suddenly after Houtaru got burned by Irsu.

[Hyper]

I think I'll take on the Juumoji case a bit.

First, some spoilers about The A.B.C. Murders:

Spoiler for The reason behind the A.B.C. patterns:

IIRC, the killers did that to conceal the real murder he wanted to commit. He even arrange a not-psychologically-normal person to be a scapegoat at the end. The scapegoat was caught and confessed that he think he did all the killings because the real culprit drugged and suggested him or something. If we assume that Juumoji has a similar intention, then

I think this incident is not a prank. This Juumoji person has at least one club that is actually his target, but not all of them. The rest are just to make a pattern which make people think the whole thing is a prank. So, which one? Quoting from Mazui's post:

Just for reference, here are the various clubs mentioned and their japanese starting letters:
a → a kapera → A capella
i → igo → Go
u → uranai → Fortune telling
e → engei → Gardening
o → oryouri → Cooking
ka → kabeshinbun → Wall newspaper
ki → kijutsu → Magic
ku → ?
ke → ?
ko → kotenbu / kousaku → Classics / Crafts

And here's what got stolen:
a → appuru jyuusu → Apple juice
i → ishi → stone
u → unmei no wa → Wheel of Fortune
e → eikei → AK
o → otama → ladle
ka → kattaa → Cutter (utility knife)
ki → kyandoru → Candle

I only saw two things that actually made an effect. First is the cooking club's ladle which slowed down Mayaka, and the second is the gardening club's AK which could be a problem for their business. Unfortunately we know next to nothing about the gardening club's situation. The ladle is certainly an essential equipment for the cooking club and could inspire Juumoji to start the whole plan. However, it's also does not make much sense why someone would know enough ahead of time to target the classic club that way.

That's what I got as of episode 15. Anyone has comments or ideas?

[alarmadadna hadi]

That's what I got as of episode 15. Anyone has comments or ideas?

I am also basing this on the novel, but instead than finding meaning within the items stolen, I am following that other storyline tangent regarding....

Spoiler for Christies ABC:

The scapegoat.

I think the magic show was indeed beneficial to Satoshi, he and his "rival" can be excluded from the list of suspects, leaving irisu, council prez and tanabe. I take out irisu as my image of her might be trampled if she is actually playing such a petty game

So, my baseless guess for now is that Tanabe is ABC or Juumoji while the prez is the scapegoat or the salesman "Cust".

Supposedly, Tanabe is mostly staying in the General Affairs room most of the time, giving him an alibi. However, the theft timing in the magic show was just before it started, go on a limb and assume the prez walks around checking the student activities, giving him access to even preparations of a cooking contest.

In summary, Tanabe uses the Juumoji case to frame prez, or maybe expose some secret, putting him in a bad light, he basically wants Kotenbu to solve this...Why? Well, Tanabe was introduced pretty early, nicely satisfying knox, and he potentially could have that passive aggressive trait where he redirects frustration that goes unexpressed through his seemingly calm demeanor through aggressive acts, also prez looks kind of like an opposite of him in attitude yet getting all the good stuff of life easily, maybe the inferiority complex theme applies here too.

Although now it feels like I'm picking on Tanabe

[Hyper]

Originally Posted by alarmadadna hadi

I am also basing this on the novel, but instead than finding meaning within the items stolen, I am following that other storyline tangent regarding....

Spoiler for Christies ABC:

The scapegoat.

I think the magic show was indeed beneficial to Satoshi, he and his "rival" can be excluded from the list of suspects, leaving irisu, council prez and tanabe. I take out irisu as my image of her might be trampled if she is actually playing such a petty game

So, my baseless guess for now is that Tanabe is ABC or Juumoji while the prez is the scapegoat or the salesman "Cust".

Supposedly, Tanabe is mostly staying in the General Affairs room most of the time, giving him an alibi. However, the theft timing in the magic show was just before it started, go on a limb and assume the prez walks around checking the student activities, giving him access to even preparations of a cooking contest.

In summary, Tanabe uses the Juumoji case to frame prez, or maybe expose some secret, putting him in a bad light, he basically wants Kotenbu to solve this...Why? Well, Tanabe was introduced pretty early, nicely satisfying knox, and he potentially could have that passive aggressive trait where he redirects frustration that goes unexpressed through his seemingly calm demeanor through aggressive acts, also prez looks kind of like an opposite of him in attitude yet getting all the good stuff of life easily, maybe the inferiority complex theme applies here too.

Although now it feels like I'm picking on Tanabe

Interesting theory, but I think we do not have enough information to start guessing who did it just yet. Indeed as a viewer, there are only a few characters we know so it's doable. For the characters in-universe however, there are more than a thousands suspect as Satoshi noted. Also, I think the motive is a little too serious for Hyouka. Mine is just as bad though.

One thing that bother me is I cannot fit Mayaka and her situation in the manga club into this mystery. There is a theory I read from MAL forum that Juumoji already took something of the classic club (Kotenbu); it's Mayaka's manga, named Corpse something (Korupusu..). I personally think this is very unlikely, since he/she need to get into Mayaka's house. That means it's one of her friends. I don't see that's to be the case.

If going by a top down approach, my guess for the motive is to promote one's club. The suspect then would be the Wall Newspaper club and the victims thereafter, since only them would benefit from the situation after the Wall Newspaper club make a scoop out of it.

[deathbringer]

i have a small theory on the Juumoji case
I think that it isn't a coincidence that the classics club is last one to be targeted and the mystery relatively easy to figure out. The mystery drums up free publicity towards the classics club and puts oreki and co at center stage. Stealing the candles before the magic show began was the ultimate tease to the main show that is about to begin.

As for the master mind behind this, the only person that would be interested in the club's success before the cultural festival began that is outside the club would be Oreki's sister Tomoe. She probably devised this scheme before hand to encourage her brother to get involved with other people.

As for the perpetrator Tomoe could have gotten any 3rd year student to have done this and given the person instructions and the cards before hand. Since there is already a established connection between Irisu and Tomoe from the previous volume, I think Irisu fits reasonably well especially since she is the last person she would expect to do it.

However a major problem with this theory is that it doesn't really use any of the new characters introduced.