[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by stray

Wasn't able to put this together yesterday. To start with:

Somebody doesn't know the medical distinction between a miscarriage and a stillbirth.

Blaming Ryu07 aside, from Kyrie's backstory in episode 3...

Spoiler for Battler is a bastard.:

This contradiction is still making my head hurt...

Battler: Ushiromiya Battler's mother is Ushiromiya Asumu.
Ange: Ushiromiya Battler is not Ushiromiya Asumu's son

But Battler being born a bastard and Asumu technically having to disown him to join the Ushiromiya family is the only thing that makes sense to me. It's either that, or I'm going to join the "Battler is a girl" team.

Uhm anyway this really would imply that Rudolf married Asumu after Battler was born, either way it doesn't make sense. However this also implies that Asumu and Rudolf were engaged before that. And that means that beside the fact that both were pregnant, Rudolf engaged with Asumu and not with Kyrie.

This whole story sounds incredibly odd to me. If we take this literally, Rudolf chose Asumu regardless of pregnancies.

[rogerpepitone]

I've mentioned it a few times, but I haven't heard any response to my "trap epitaph" hypothesis.

Spoiler for the trap epitaph:

1) The evidence suggests that the epitaph's solution led to Kuwadorian.
2) From Kinzo's POV, the person most likely to be able to get to Kuwadowrian was the person who had been there in 1968 and released / kidnapped / killed Beatrice.
3) Kinzo probably hated that person more than any other person in the world.

Why would Kinzo want to reward that person?

My answer: He didn't. When Eva followed the epitaph, she found an open door near a switch labeled "open / close". I think that switch was wired to three of the rifles so that pushing it would fire them, probably killing the person using it. After hearing Rosa's story, Genji (or another servant) realized the trap was pointless, and safely disarmed it.

Rosa correctly guessed that there might be a trap, which is why she gave hints to Eva. She wanted Eva to set off the traps.

[Jan-Poo]

Personally I think that Kuwadorian is just a checkpoint not the goal. Kumasawa knows that place (and not only her), if the gold was there then it wouldn't make sense for Kumasawa to try and solve the riddle.

I think the gold is not on Kuwadorian itself but somewhere in the intricate dungeon below it. Actually it's been pretty much confirmed that the the room with the gold is underground. This dungeon is probably connected with the underground tunnel that goes from the Mansion to Kuwadorian.

There might be a series of tricks and secret passages on the way. And the 10 twilights are probably step by step guides to reach the secret room with the gold.

Anyway for all these reasons I find improbable the idea that Kinzo made all of this to get revenge from Beatrice's death. There are several reasons:

1) The path to go to the kuwadorian is not the same path that leads to the gold
2) There was no need for him to wait that much, with the risk to miss the real killer since a fukuin servant would make a most probable culprit (and they usually serve for a very limited time)
3) There was no need for the "culprit" to have used the underground passage (in fact)

[maximilianjenus]

Originally Posted by Sylum

First time posting, didn't feel like reading 131 pages so hopefully this wasn't posted before, but felt like adding my theory on Battlers mother (since I see a large number of people guessing)

Kyrie is Battlers real mother:

Asumu and Kyrie were to give birth on the same day, Kyrie was also to give birth to a boy, she claims that Asumu had succeeded in giving birth and she had ended up with a stillbirth. However, lets assume that Asumu had infact given birth to the stillborn and Kyrie had given birth to Battler, but Asumu or someone else had payed off the doctor attending Kyrie to tell her that the baby wasn't able to birth successfully and had died, and then had given the baby to Kyrie.

The thing with the second Battler can be explained that Asumu had already named the fetus inside of her Battler, and that was the name it would of been given on birth, so the Battler that was a fetus is dead, and the baby she stole from Kyrie was named Battler. Of course, this all depends on if Rudolf had been there during the birth, but he had probably been busy with some form of work, or something similar.

Another theory that goes along the same lines is that Asumu had hated Kyrie severely but had in fact given birth successfully to her baby Battler, however she had still taken the baby Kyrie had given birth to and tricked her into thinking that it was a stillborn since she feared that if Kyrie had given birth successfully that Rudolf would side with Kyrie. She then had people raise the baby in secret, giving it the same name of Battler, then her baby had died somehow and she took that Battler to be her son.

That's how I view it, so unless there was something spouted earlier that contradicts this, I think this is a theory that makes perfect sense in regard to the red truth.

While I disgree with the second batler dying, I agree with most of this theory, as the image form the game posted a few games ago really gives me the impression that rudolph married asumu after she gave birth to a healthy batler while kyrie's died; and I also think ryukishi messed up while using the term miscarriage as that same image makes me thing that the "miscarriage" happened very close if not the same day kyrie was supossed to give birth.

About the sin, what I understood (from beatrice's reaction) is that the sinner was asumu's born batler and that our batler can't remember the sin because he did not commit it.

[rogerpepitone]

1: It's only a freak coincidence that Rosa was able to find her way through the forest to Kuwadorian, and that there was a gap in the fence large enough. A person who managed to find the entrance to the tunnel (or follow Kinzo to it) would likely be led straight to Beatrice.

2: What motive would a Fukuin servant have? Did Fukuin house even exist then?

3: Even if he isn't certain that a person did find the tunnel, he has to realize that it's very likely. Why would he write his epitaph in such a manner that it would very likely give a large advantage to Beatrice's murderer?

4: Do you have any evidence that "The path to go to the kuwadorian is not the same path that leads to the gold."? Eva did find the gold, and she did find Kuwadorian.

Originally Posted by ep 3

My first impression when I saw the room, ......was that it might be related to one of the rooms in the mansion.
...
A bed with a canopy, and a rocking chair that looked like it would be comfortab
le to sit in. An extravagant sofa and carpet. The room was like a dream every girl yearns for at least once...
...
That's right, it had exactly the same atmosphere about it as the forbidden hono
red guest room on the second floor.
...
Of course, they weren't piled up carelessly in a way that would damage the dignity of this room. A beautiful scarlet satin weave was laid on the mountain of gold, creating a beautiful three-colored mix between the red, the gold and the black of the deep darkness...

Sure sounds like it was part of Kuwadorian, perhaps the basement.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

1: It's only a freak coincidence that Rosa was able to find her way through the forest to Kuwadorian, and that there was a gap in the fence large enough. A person who managed to find the entrance to the tunnel (or follow Kinzo to it) would likely be led straight to Beatrice.

2: What motive would a Fukuin servant have? Did Fukuin house even exist then?

3: Even if he isn't certain that a person did find the tunnel, he has to realize that it's very likely. Why would he write his epitaph in such a manner that it would very likely give a large advantage to Beatrice's murderer?

4: Do you have any evidence that "The path to go to the kuwadorian is not the same path that leads to the gold."? Eva did find the gold, and she did find Kuwadorian.


Sure sounds like it was part of Kuwadorian, perhaps the basement.

2: Why not? Shannon started working in 1976. Even if fukuin servants didn't exist at the time, there still were several servants working at the Kuwadorian (since Beatrice mentioned a gardener), and they changed often enough for Beatrice to not find unusual to see a new face.

3: Kinzo can't tell if it was a murderer unless he saw the body. If he saw the body, unless he's stupid, he can pretty much guess what happened. A killer would either hide the body, or kill Beatrice on the spot. But bringing Beatrice all the way there just to leave the body on the open just doesn't make sense. Actually there is a very high probability that Kinzo thought that Beatrice escaped on her own just to find her own death. There were really little evidences to think it was a murder. In fact it wasn't a murder at all.
Anyway if the gold is in the kuwadorian wouldn't Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa be even more "advantaged" regardless of their involvement in the crime?

4: No evidence, but assuming ep4 wasn't a total lie, the underground is not a mere straight path. Since Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji had to use that underground passage to go to the kuwadorian, and since there's no way Kinzo would let them go near the gold, I doubt they are the same paths.

[rogerpepitone]

You are working under the hypothesis that Kinzo would make no actions unless he was certain. I think that he may well jump to conclusions.

To Kinzo's knowledge:
1) Kuwadorian is surrounded by an impassible fence, except that (most likely) the dock is gated off, and there's an underground tunnel.
2) The only ways on or off the island are the boats.
3) The captain and all servants have established themselves as loyal to Kinzo. His family members actively dislike him.
4) The captain says he didn't take Beatrice off the island, and food isn't disappearing.
5) Beatrice really believed there were wolves around her.
6) Her body wasn't found in Kuwadorian.

From points 2, 3 and 4, it's very unlikely that she left the island alive, or that she's still on it alive. --> She is dead.
From points 1, 5 and 6, it's very unlikely Beatrice left on her own, and she's obviously no longer there. --> Somebody else was involved.
From point 3, it's far more likely that person was a family member than a servant.
With Beatrice dying after meeting a family member, and with the family members having very good reason to dislike Beatrice (a very strong rival for the inheritance), isn't it a very reasonable conclusion that said family member went through the tunnel and murdered Beatrice? (I believe Rosa's story, so I think the conclusion is incorrect. But I think Kinzo would jump to that conclusion.)

[rogerpepitone]

I forgot to mention:
- The professor mentioned that Eva sold off a large amount of Kinzo's possessions six months after the incident, implying she needed money. Why would she need to do this if she'd just found 10 tons of gold?

There's an old mining scam "salting the claim": A landowner loads a shotgun shell with gold dust, and fires it into the ground before bringing a prospector buyer out. Said buyer notices the shiny, secretly takes some, and has it tested. The prospector then buys the worthless claim at an inflated price.

Somebody suggested Kinzo could have done something similar. Get a large amount of brass or iron ingots, enough to look convincing, and one real gold ingot. When the bank manager comes, either use magician's choice to trick him into taking the real ingot, or switching the two somehow. It's very risky, but it's perfectly in line about what Kinzo said about taking long risks. So in that case, it doesn't matter whether anybody passes the room; it's essentially worthless.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

You are working under the hypothesis that Kinzo would make no actions unless he was certain. I think that he may well jump to conclusions.

To Kinzo's knowledge:
1) Kuwadorian is surrounded by an impassible fence, except that (most likely) the dock is gated off, and there's an underground tunnel.
2) The only ways on or off the island are the boats.
3) The captain and all servants have established themselves as loyal to Kinzo. His family members actively dislike him.
4) The captain says he didn't take Beatrice off the island, and food isn't disappearing.
5) Beatrice really believed there were wolves around her.
6) Her body wasn't found in Kuwadorian.

From points 2, 3 and 4, it's very unlikely that she left the island alive, or that she's still on it alive. --> She is dead.
From points 1, 5 and 6, it's very unlikely Beatrice left on her own, and she's obviously no longer there. --> Somebody else was involved.
From point 3, it's far more likely that person was a family member than a servant.
With Beatrice dying after meeting a family member, and with the family members having very good reason to dislike Beatrice (a very strong rival for the inheritance), isn't it a very reasonable conclusion that said family member went through the tunnel and murdered Beatrice? (I believe Rosa's story, so I think the conclusion is incorrect. But I think Kinzo would jump to that conclusion.)

then you are assuming Kinzo thought it was one of his family. But you are forgetting something important here imho. It was 1967. George was already born. Which means Eva was married and wasn't living there. Not only that. Rudolf wasn't there either seeing as how he was already working and busy impregnating two (three?) women.

So this only leaves us with Krauss, Natsuhi and Rosa. I don't know if Kinzo's wife was still alive but if he thought she was the culprit he would have acted earlier. Anyway the epitaph was shown when she was already dead.

Excluding the servants and Nanjo only 3 people could be suspected by Kinzo.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by stray

Wasn't able to put this together yesterday. To start with:

Somebody doesn't know the medical distinction between a miscarriage and a stillbirth.

Blaming Ryu07 aside, from Kyrie's backstory in episode 3...

Spoiler for Battler is a bastard.:

Well, I had assumed that it meant that their delivery dates were originally estimated to be the same day, but a while before that, Kyrie had a miscarriage.

Again, I'll be disappointed if Ryu07 didn't do his homework here, but it does allow an easier explanation.

[stray]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

Well, I had assumed that it meant that their delivery dates were originally estimated to be the same day, but a while before that, Kyrie had a miscarriage.

Again, I'll be disappointed if Ryu07 didn't do his homework here, but it does allow an easier explanation.

It's not correct in English, but people do use the term for any pregnancy that ends prematurely. I assume something similar is probably true in Japanese. Regardless, it's implied that it happens late in the pregnancy, or late enough overall to keep Rudolf and Asumu from marrying until after Battler's birth.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Uhm anyway this really would imply that Rudolf married Asumu after Battler was born, either way it doesn't make sense. However this also implies that Asumu and Rudolf were engaged before that. And that means that beside the fact that both were pregnant, Rudolf engaged with Asumu and not with Kyrie.

This whole story sounds incredibly odd to me. If we take this literally, Rudolf chose Asumu regardless of pregnancies.

This one wasn't exactly relevant to my point, so I didn't post it before, but I have a screencap anyway.

Spoiler for Triangular:

For whatever reason Rudolf was apparently forced to choose Asumu in that circumstance... and from what Battler said, never stopped seeing Kyrie.

[Marion]

Battler also mentioned once that Kyrie was a family friend before Asumu died. If Battler was able to deduce Rudolf was cheating with Kyrie, then Asumu might have been able to as well...

[k//eternal]

Kyrie's miscarriage: the result of Asumu's FALCON PUNCH?

[Marion]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

Kyrie's miscarriage: the result of Asumu's FALCON PUNCH?

fffff oh gosh that's awful. Falcon punching a pregnant woman's stomach is a terrible thing and yet morbidly hilarious |D

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by stray

This one wasn't exactly relevant to my point, so I didn't post it before, but I have a screencap anyway.

Spoiler for Triangular:

For whatever reason Rudolf was apparently forced to choose Asumu in that circumstance... and from what Battler said, never stopped seeing Kyrie.

I know what Kyrie said but her story doesn't sound right to me. She is implying that Asumu forced Rudolf to marry her because she got pregnant. I don't think "used her body" could be interpreted in any other way.
But then Kyrie says she got pregnant as well. So why would Rudolf be forced to marry Asumu instead of Kyrie? Sure, Kyrie in the end didn't have a baby, but according to what Kyrie herself is saying, Rudolf was engaged to Asumu even before she had the misscarriage. Else "if she had the misscarriage instead of me, Rudolf would have broke his engagement" wouldn't make sense.

Kyrie is lying, or rather, she's telling her own truth. Rudolf chose Asumu, the pregnancy was just an excuse. To kyrie is probably easier to think that way rather than thinking she's a close second.

[stray]

Originally Posted by Marion

Battler also mentioned once that Kyrie was a family friend before Asumu died. If Battler was able to deduce Rudolf was cheating with Kyrie, then Asumu might have been able to as well...

I didn't screencap the whole interchange between Kyrie and envy, but the first thing she says is how she was the first one involved with Rudolf, and that Asumu had cut between them. Kind of odd for the woman of lower social standing to be the wife, and the Sumadera to be the mistress/concubine in that kind of situation, but maybe Asumu was a bit of a golddigger and once she got the ring she didn't care anymore?

Originally Posted by k//eternal

Kyrie's miscarriage: the result of Asumu's FALCON PUNCH?

So um. Switching gears to a bit of a batshit theory... Kinzo is dead at the start of each game. But... all the guests acknowledged Kinzo. (in red) So... if the Kinzo name is actually passed down... who is Kinzo?

For that matter, why is Nanjo there tending to an already dead patient? Nanjo = Kinzo? Hmmmm.

[rogerpepitone]

I think Kyrie gave birth less than nine months after Asumu's death. That's pretty good evidence that she and Rudolf were together while Asumu was alive.

[Jan-Poo]

This would probably explain why Battler was so pissed off, but in that case I couldn't help but to think the timing of Asumu's death was way too convenient.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I know what Kyrie said but her story doesn't sound right to me. She is implying that Asumu forced Rudolf to marry her because she got pregnant. I don't think "used her body" could be interpreted in any other way.
But then Kyrie says she got pregnant as well. So why would Rudolf be forced to marry Asumu instead of Kyrie? Sure, Kyrie in the end didn't have a baby, but according to what Kyrie herself is saying, Rudolf was engaged to Asumu even before she had the misscarriage. Else "if she had the misscarriage instead of me, Rudolf would have broke his engagement" wouldn't make sense.

Kyrie is lying, or rather, she's telling her own truth. Rudolf chose Asumu, the pregnancy was just an excuse. To kyrie is probably easier to think that way rather than thinking she's a close second.

Simple. As Kyrie said, Asumu drove him into a corner. She probably blackmailed him or something, probably using her pregnancy. So he was force to engage her. Kyrie could have done something similar, but then again blackmailing like this is pretty low and Kyrie isn't like Kasumi, who would probably do something like that. This way what Kyrie says makes sense. If Asumu miscarried and she didn't then blackmail wouldn't exist and Rudolf breaks off the engagement.

[Jan-Poo]

How exactly did she blackmail him? Since Rudolf impregnated Kyrie as well he had a valid excuse not to marry Asumu.

Legal actions against him? there's no law that would force him to marry Asumu expecially if there was another woman in the same situation. He would just be forced to recognize the son and pay for him, but that would also go for Kyrie's son.

Physical threats, or other kind of threats? In that case she didn't even had to be pregnant for that.