2010-04-03, 12:00 | Link #7582 | |
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Anyways, who says we need to be able to "prove a fallacy in anyone's theory"? Isn't the whole point of Umineko using a shotgun instead of a rifle? Ryuukishi has been hinting about this for years. The goal is not to find the only theory that can possibly work, it's to find a theory that explains the most in the most satisfying way. When I was first trying to find my solution theory, I rarely needed to look at any red text, or even most of the murders in EP1-4. Part of the reason I was so confident is that my theory just happened to match up with more or less all of the magic scenes and murders with very little tweaking. I think the red text and the murders are there for us to test pre-existing theories, not to create theories from scratch. Umineko is just like Higurashi: the important thing is finding out what each Kakera has in common, then figuring out why they're all different. I think starting from the red text is closer to Battler's anti-fantasy style of play: solving each puzzle closed room by closed room. At best, you have Erika's style of play: solve each game by itself and ignore all non-red scenes that disagree with your theory.
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2010-04-03, 13:38 | Link #7583 | |
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Not to be humorous, but "the theory that explains the most in the most satisfying way" is less like a rifle and shotgun and more like... a bomb. Wraps it all up with a single traceable cause. Everything points back to a single thing. Which, incidentally, I completely reject. We don't know if the goal is to find a theory that "explains the most." We don't know that the goal is to find an answer that is "satisfying." He has gone so far as to speculate that the ending may not be as happy and resolute as he's done before. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. He hasn't written it, and besides, he might just mean the ending is bittersweet for someone, or that the main culprit dies, or that the family survives and is happy but goes broke. I mean, look at Author Theory. I doubt it's true, it's a little too hyper-meta to be digestible to anyone but the most intense literary critics, and it's probably just there as a metaphor to help some readers who are struggling with the whole multiple episodes and Game Master dynamic understand what's going on. But suppose it winds up being the answer. It doesn't "explain the most" of any theory, certainly not. It isn't particularly "satisfying," especially if a lot of the characters are really dead. However, there is no particular literary reason why it could not be a perfectly valid ending. I'm almost certain it won't be, of course, because I think ryukishi knows his audience and his audience is not a bunch of people who like bittersweet self-revelations, grossly unreliable narrators, and narratives that exist only to enforce the narrator's own inner conflict. But there are books which are written that way, and I'm sure he is aware of that. Or, to be silly, imagine if some goofball thing like Gohda Accident Theory were true. It "explains the most" of a lot of theories (because it takes ridiculous stretches to make things fit), but it's not "satisfying" at all, because it's stupid. But imagine the opposite for a moment: Somehow in ep7 or 8 or whatever he ends at, he gives us an answer. Compared to our theories, this answer is... incomplete. It leaves many things to wondering, it doesn't clarify every mysterious event, and it even goes so far as to leave some character's motives in the dark. But what if this answer, after everything that's led up to it, is "satisfying?" What if it's just right? It feels like the appropriate way to end things. It's certainly hard to imagine such a thing, but it could exist. So why, precisely, must the ending be anything at all? If he has been one thing in interviews, it's evasive about his ultimate goal. He often speaks of what the characters "must" do, but not so much what he'll do as the author. He seems to like playing around with the mysteries, but at the same time, he seems to think it's possible to solve them as well. At other times, he acts like solving the mystery isn't the primary thrust of the tale at all. Who really knows where he's going with this? |
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2010-04-03, 15:21 | Link #7584 | |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Plus with people going for Shannon being Beatrice, Jessica as Gaap is a good counterpart. -Gaap and Beatrice are best friends. Jessica says she thinks of Shannon as her best friend. -Both Gaap and Jessica have a fun, teasing side to them. -Gaap kills George in EP 4. Jessica is aware that George is dead, when she shouldn't be. -Although Gaap is suppose to be a visitor to the island, isn't everyone that doesn't live on the island a visitor in a way? In that case, that part shouldn't really be used in determining Gaap's counterpart. -Nanjo is more closer to Kinzo than to Beatrice, so him being Gaap doesn't make sense. I can understand Zepar or Furfur being Kanon, because it says one of them is a male. But there is nothing implying that Gaap isn't a female - the giant breasts don't help either. |
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2010-04-03, 18:11 | Link #7585 | ||
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When I came up with the idea that George could be the mastermind there wasn't any red saying I was wrong. I had found out that bribery and ordering servants were possible ways for him to manipulate people. You can come up with a lot of motives too. It also satisfied Natsuhi's closed room in episode 2 because he was stabbed in a less than fatal spot. And Shannon has relatively the same kind of wound to the head that Jessica does in episode 4. I think the red is a good guide some of the time, but it's not all of the time Quote:
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2010-04-03, 22:47 | Link #7586 |
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Anyways, a few more of my thoughts on the game. This isn't directly related to my theory, but it'll probably become important in the later core arcs. This is all just a theory, but I think it's a very likely one.
Spoiler for chrono:
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-04-03 at 23:15. |
2010-04-03, 23:38 | Link #7587 | |
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I've wondered about Lambda's piece as well since it seems all the others have their own pieces. Then I was thinking, what if Lambda has more than one piece? This is kind of a stretch though... George's name is actually 譲治 which is given the pronunciation, Jyo-ji. ジョージ essentially. I always thought it was kind of close to the on-yomi (Chinese reading) of 3 and 4 in Japanese. 3 can be 'zou' 4 is 'shi' It definitely is a bit of a stretch. But what Gaap says about George's certainty during his battle seems to me that he's been 'blessed' by Lambdadelta to carry out his plans. Actually, lemme start another post about him... |
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2010-04-03, 23:55 | Link #7588 | |
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Oct 4, 1986 10:30am - The family arrives at the rose garden - George is the one to call Maria over to look at the roses - George has and uses a candy wrapper to mark the rose Oct 4, 1986 1:30pm - The cousins talk on the beach. - Shannon and George are the ones to talk about the Epitaph being human sacrifices. - Shannon is the one to tell the story about Beatrice of Legend. Jessica says she doesn't know it. George says he also knows and heard it from his mother. - Shannon says Kanon saw something like butterflies. She says he heard foot steps before. - George asks Maria for a good luck charm for Jessica and Battler. "Some kind of amulet?" he says. - Shannon verifies Maria's idea about the scorpion being protective - George says, "It's true. The snake wraps around the emerald and protects it." (How the @#$! does he know?) He could be merely placating Maria.. or... - Shannon has to hurry back first, George 'gives' her permission, essentially first voices that she should go. - George is the one who says Maria "doesn't want us to be here now." (When Rosa was slapping her.) So far the only source of information and magic has been George and Shannon. I'm sure the parents know the stories but it's only George who backs up Maria's idea of which magic works or not. This is highly suspicious if you add them together. "Information" and "Verification." It's interesting to note that Shannon knows the stories but Jessica does not. Also, Maria so far has initiated nothing at ALL, except for two things: Noticing the torii shrine is gone and want to go find the rose again. The scorpion charm, the talk about magic, the talk about Beatrice, the talk about the Epitaph and the gold... all George and Shannon. This is what I've gathered only up to 6pm of the first day in EP1! I should keep on going... I wonder how long the list will be. |
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2010-04-04, 00:37 | Link #7589 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Something else I've noticed
Episode 1 Maria delivers letter. (George is the first to notice her take it out) Episode 2- Maria doesn't deliver letter (George contributes in halloween convo and Jessica didn't seem to care, but then again Battler and the parents were talking too.) Episode 3- Maria delivered a letter. Hideyoshi expected more letters to come, and he thought they were a prank from Kinzo but none came after Kinzo was found dead. (Which makes me think that the letters were intended to be seen as a prank by Kinzo.) Episode 4- Completely different letters (sees kinzo?) Epsiode 5 No letters (unless you think Erika represents them since they share the same purpose of challenging the epitaph) Episode 6- ??? Originally I was thinking that odd numbered episodes have Maria delivering the letters and the even numbered ones don't, but that doesn't seem to be the case in episode 5 unless you count my theory of Erika being represented by the letters in episode 5.
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-04 at 03:34. |
2010-04-04, 03:51 | Link #7590 |
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George's situation is highly suspicous, and it is why I personally would consider him one of the strongest choices for "handler." We know he can't be the killer for most - if not all - of the murders in most of the games. Of course, the mere fact that someone isn't the killer and cannot be the killer doesn't mean they aren't involved in some way, and indeed preventing other survivors from bumping into the killer more or less necessitates that the killer either be able to perfectly determine where everyone is going to go and what they are going to do (which is frankly ridiculous), or to have someone "on the inside" who is going to suggest and herd the survivors.
I think part of the problem for the killers in ep1 and ep2 arises when one of the mothers (Natsuhi, whom we know is essentially innocent, and Rosa, whom I would suspect is) hijacks the group of survivors. It's possible these people are being somehow forced into acting as handlers (Natsuhi by the "man from 19 years ago," Rosa perhaps by Suit-Beatrice), but they would seem to have no clear means of communication. On the other hand, if someone were acting as the "handler" who were part of the plan from the very beginning, it would be easier for them to influence events based on a predetermined plan. We would expect that the mother-hijacks would marginalize the amount of herding that is possible by this person. Maria seems very likely - at least in the first two episodes - to act as a pawn of the handler, being manipulated into making noisy displays or creepy proclamations to draw suspicion from the handler. For instance, we know someone planted a letter in the study in ep1. Natsuhi claims George was free from suspicion because she was watching him. Does that mean he wasn't involved? Just because Natsuhi believes a person couldn't have planted the letter doesn't mean they couldn't have been the one who made someone else do it. In fact, it would be beneficial to the handler to not be kicked out of the study (otherwise it will be difficult to get the people who are still inside to leave), and thus to ensure that he or she is not suspicious to Natsuhi. The question is more, who is the handler, how are they able to manipulate people, and how do they communicate or coordinate with the actual killer? If there isn't a handler, how does the killer predict what the survivors are going to do? |
2010-04-04, 03:59 | Link #7591 |
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I agree that he doesn't kill people most of the time.
I always thought Natsuhi's argument for why the cousins couldn't have put the letter there was stupid. Her argument was basically that all of them were in front of the portrait therefore they couldn't have placed that letter there that she never saw before. The problem is that it is possible. All they would have to do is place it on that table as they were walking toward the epitaph on the portrait. Natsuhi never saw the letter there before when she put the can of food down, but she was probably distracted by the portrait herself too later. So I had thought it was possible for Jessica or George to take a letter out of their pocket and place it on the table for a long time. As for Rosa's keys. I've been thinking that George and Rosa exchanged a key at the time she received them. He was the closest to her at the time. But it's not even really necessary if the only key that they used was Natsuhi's key. And it's kind of strange that George had the key according to the red when Shannon is shown to take it from Natsuhi's Pocket. But then again I think the whole chapel scene is a hassle. I'd much rather George have the key before that by taking it when they discovered the first twilight. Then he has 2-3 hours to kill Nanjo and Kumasawa (Who I think faked their deaths that time) and do the whole thing with Natsuhi's room. Genji could possibly mark the door also. If we're talking about handlers though think about the king piece. The king peice doesn't have that much fire power. He might be capable of killing maybe one or two pawns, but he doesn't have to kill anyone, and he's very vulnerable.
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-04 at 04:25. |
2010-04-04, 04:32 | Link #7592 |
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It seems probable that whoever had Natsuhi's key (which was almost certainly Shannon or George) had it already. The whole thing about going to the chapel just for the key seems ridiculous. But if it were in Natsuhi's pocket, why would Shannon or George have taken it? If it wasn't in her pocket, why did one of them have it, and when did they get it?
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2010-04-04, 05:26 | Link #7593 | |
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Quote:
Like I said that whole chapel scene is a hassle. It's over the top just to do all that for a single key. I'd much rather George take the Key from Natsuhi at the first twilight while He, Rosa, and Battler are talking about the contents of the letter. We don't know what happens at all during that period of time because the story switched it's focus onto Jessica, Kanon, Shannon, and Genji. Explaining why they have the key when Natsuhi doesn't would bring too many weird conclusions. It's easier just to say that scene with the chapel happened at a different time, or the key was retrieved before that at a different time. I thought that the scene in Natuhi's room provided a lot of potential murder weapons though. The mirror itself could be a potential murder weapon. The fountain pen or the letter opener they find could be used for that too. I was thinking that Shannon's bleeding was caused by a severe blow to the head and she was staked afterwards. The cause of the bleeding should be something else besides the stake. So I thought maybe she hit her head on a table or the corner of a bed because it seems she hit her head pretty hard. I guess smashing her head with a mirror would work too. The container they have to pry open doesn't make the mirror seem all that large though.
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-04 at 05:42. |
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2010-04-04, 09:09 | Link #7594 |
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
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Just out of curiosity, does anyone NOT think Sayo is the culprit? In my opinion (and that's all I have) Ep. 2 makes her look like a bit of a red herring. It just seems as if everyone has decided conclusively that she's behind it and I keep wondering if this isn't a trick laid by Ryukishi07 to get everyone caught in one theory without considering others. I rarely see anyone discuss Jessitrice or Kyrietrice anymore because everyone says they've been jossed by the later episodes. IMO, Shannontrice would be just as jossed if people didn't spend so much time trying to make it fit into said episodes. So does anyone still support alternate theories? George, Jessica, and Kyrie all seem more suspicious than Sayo to me.
Edit: I do agree that Shannon probably played a part though. If George or Jessica is the culprit they'd almost certainly manipulate Shannon into aiding them. |
2010-04-04, 10:22 | Link #7595 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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I personally think Shannon/Kanon/Sayo/whatever we're calling her now is being used by the mastermind, rather than being the actual culprit. If Battler is suppose to be the white king on the board then the true mastermind should be the black king. However, Bern moved what she called 'a garbage piece' into the black queen position. If you believe in Shkannon then that piece is very likely them, because the piece was described as being 'anything the placer wished it to be'. A piece that can do that is a pawn when promoted.
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2010-04-04, 10:41 | Link #7596 | ||||
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So I'm going to create a theory that might contradict yours Chronotrig. It's not an attack on your theory, but I think I've come up with a different answer. Quote:
Spoiler for Judoh:
I think a better term for it may be "illusion" Furthermore we have this quote from Bernkastel's letter Quote:
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Spoiler for braun trial:
With this interpretation I can create a theory for the colored texts using the judicial system as an example since that is now how this game works. Spoiler for colored texts:
Spoiler for evidence supporting my interpretation:
Also could you all please read my interpretation on how it can be used I think the gold's wording is obviously important. http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=6312 I also think Rule Y may be that multi layered world contraction concept that Ronove talks about. http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=5413
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-04 at 11:03. |
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2010-04-04, 10:55 | Link #7597 | ||
別にいいけど
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Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Quote:
Quote:
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2010-04-04, 10:56 | Link #7598 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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You're using a tarot card as evidence 9_9
Can you explain Oldersis-Beato's gold truth in EP 6 then? There was no 'trial' to determine that the magic Lilsis-Beato did was 'splendid magic'. The coloring of the text probably refers to the three witches, as chronotrig mentioned before. Red is certain truth (Lambda), Blue is something that can become the truth (Bern) and Gold is something that becomes the truth if believed in (Beato) |
2010-04-04, 11:01 | Link #7599 |
Mystery buff
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In the spoilers I had to make a couple of my images as links since they were too big and image shack resized them. You have to click on the links and zoom in to get what I mean unfortunately.
The tarot card is only part of it.
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2010-04-04, 11:07 | Link #7600 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
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I dunno about the witches associations but I do believe that gold is "what you believe in". It can only be defeated by red, i.e. a hard fact shown that denies it, however gold is somehow superior because doesn't need to be based on anything. We know that red can be used only if you already know your stuff. A GM can use red simply because he's the one that made the story, so of course he knows, and the detective can only use red if he's got detective authority or an unquestionable proof (such as severing someone's head).
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