[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[ijriims]

I hypothesized that Beatrice had already solved the epitaph and presented the answer to Kinzo.

Kinzo had chosen Beatrice to be her successor in his will (which was declared in EP4 during the family meeting, thus the red texts 親族会議に居合わせた全員が、金蔵の存在を認めた！), and Kinzo promised to help her to carry out her plan after his death by assigning Genji to help her.

Beatrice herself also recruited Nanjo to be on her side as she knew Nanjo got a sick granddaughter.

She persuaded Shannon to post as Beatrice to give the letter and umbrella to Maria (or as someone insisted, Shannon was Beatrice) in EP1-3. She only thought it was a trick to urge the adults to unite together and solve the epitaph (Shannon was shown the golden land by Beatrice beforehand), however she did not know Beatrice planned to kill people on the island as well. And the killing tasks were given to Genji actually (Genji knew where the stakes and letters were), however he knew nothing about the bombs as Beatrice only told her about killing 13 people (sometimes including Kinzo).

In EP1, 2, Genji executed the murders even though Beatrice died (or not in EP1), and Rosa knew about it while she said she would not stop him if he did not touch the Ushiromiya family's members and especially herself and Maria (why she agreed? Because she herself accidentally murdered the 6 adults and agreed to use Beatrice to cover up the murders. Besides, she had to kill Jessica after she discovered she being behind her parents' death and killed Kanon as well as Kanon tried to protect Jessica. Then Genji proceeded to use the two bodies to make the 2nd twilight. However, Rosa made Kanon as Jessica's murderer by deliberately removing his body) In EP3, Genji killed the other four servants and moved the body of Kinzo to the boiler room and was killed by Beatrice afterwards. Some of the latter murders were done by Eva (Rosa, Maria, Krauss and Natsuhi) while Beatrice herself killed at least Hideyoshi, George and Nanjo.

In EP4, Beatrice abandoned the plan of following the epitaph (as said through the month of Kinzo, she was disappointed by the adults). She knew that Krauss was busy hiding Kinzo's death so she suggested killing other sibings and hid everything behind a crazy Kinzo (She gave the script to Kumasawa and Gohda about the tale to tell the cousins). Kanon wanted to stop Beatrice but was killed instead. She promised Krauss she would not kill the cousins but of course he was betrayed quickly by Beatrice. Genji and Shannon were the two to give the test to Jessica and George, while she headed off to kill both Kumasawa and Gohda (who were both thinking about hanging themselves as they realized they took part in a murder scheme, and they actually died before Genji and Shannon).

Beatrice planned the bomb to kill anyone off (perfectly done in EP1), and she used the murders to urge the people to solve the epitaph quickly to find the shelter before 00:00 Oct6 came. The bomber and the mastermind were the same person. Ultimately, she ensured that either the survivors worked together and surivived the explosion or no one could see the next sunrise. She knew the possibility of the survivors solving the epitaph was very low, in fact a miracle itself. But Beatrice was willing to take this gamble and risk her life. Indeed, she did not expect herself to survive at all, if no one could solve the epitaph, then she would kill herself in the explosion as well.

Depending on who you think about Beatrice was. The remaining was different. I was merely stating how different murders arrived in different episodes while there could still be one common mastermind and bomber behind all.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by ijriims

In EP1, 2, Genji executed the murders

Lambdadelta: Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!

I don't understand why Beatrice would solve the epitaph.

Virgilia said:
The gold of the Golden Land has belonged to this child from the very beginning.
There is no need for her to make someone find it, or for her to usurp it.
Regardless of whether the epitaph is solved or not, this child gains nothing from it.

So what motivation for solving the epitaph did Beatrice have in your opinion?

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Lambdadelta: Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!

I don't understand why Beatrice would solve the epitaph.
Virgilia said, "The gold of the Golden Land has belonged to this child from the very beginning. There is no need for her to make someone find it, or for her to usurp it.".
So what motivation for solving the epitaph did Beatrice have in your opinion?

The background of that red texts was to rebuke Battler's "clockwise simultaneous headshot hypothesis". I am quite certain to say the meaning of red texts was Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo were not murderers (in 6-8th twilights).

You could not take Lambda's red texts directly. Just like one cannot take hers directly in EP5. Lambda had perfect motive to misdirect Battler (and so the readers) as she did not want Battler to beat the game.



The above hypothesis was basing on EP1-4 only. Basing on this red texts from EP5, I could say my background hypothesis as well.

After the WWII, Kinzo "stole" the gold from the real Beatrice's family, through Kinzo's secret lover Beatrice telling Kinzo the 10tons gold's whereabout (what Kinzo stole was not just gold, but 1952 Beatrice's love as well). Latter, the real Beatrice became the head of her family. So it could be said that the gold belonged to real Beatrice initially. The real Beatrice came to reclaim the gold from Kinzo but considering the temper of Kinzo. Would he give up the gold just because the golds' initial owner came to reclaim it? He created the epitaph to test the real Beatrice: if she could solve it, then she could take back the gold. If not, she could never find the gold herself.

Thus Beatrice had to solve the epitaph even though the gold belonged to her (and her family) from the beginning, because the gold were hidden by Kinzo.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Geekodot

In conclusion, it is very well hinted that what you see 24.00 at the tenth twilight in every game is just a magic scene which makes it not real.

Hmm, what about Battler seeing Beatrice in the study at the end of Episode 2? That happened before midnight. It's been pretty common to say that he was drunk, but no one would mistake Kinzo by sight. There's no qualifications in that statement, so being drunk shouldn't matter at all. And Battler is the detective, so of course he's not lying.

Doesn't that mean the only way Kinzo could appear is if Battler was already killed before he opened the door?

Originally Posted by ijriims

The background of that red texts was to rebuke Battler's "clockwise simultaneous headshot hypothesis". I am quite certain to say the meaning of red texts was Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo were not murderers (in 6-8th twilights).

You could not take Lambda's red texts directly. Just like one cannot take hers directly in EP5. Lambda had perfect motive to misdirect Battler (and so the readers) as she did not want Battler to beat the game.

I could accept that as a possibility if she'd been speaking in past tense, like "Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo did not commit murder (at that time)." The timestamp would be unclear in that case. But that's not what she said.

Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers! That's a present-tense statement, so it's applicable as of the moment Lambda spoke it. A murderer is someone who has at some point murdered another person. If I kill X, and then someone kills Y and Z, I don't stop being a murderer, because I've still killed X. The most conservative reading you could give it is that Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo did not murder anyone in Episode 1, and even that much of a restriction is questionable. They aren't even on the hook for Natsuhi's or the cousins' deaths after the 8th twilight, since all three of them were certainly dead, killed by other people.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers! That's a present-tense statement, so it's applicable as of the moment Lambda spoke it. A murderer is someone who has at some point murdered another person. If I kill X, and then someone kills Y and Z, I don't stop being a murderer, because I've still killed X. The most conservative reading you could give it is that Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo did not murder anyone in Episode 1, and even that much of a restriction is questionable. They aren't even on the hook for Natsuhi's or the cousins' deaths after the 8th twilight, since all three of them were certainly dead, killed by other people.

I need someone to tell me the grammar or how tense is used in Japanese, since the English understanding of past tense and present tense may not be the same as in Japanese.

To make thing more complicated, Lambda was speaking in the 5610984236153928423602349852639th kakera, which would be completely independent of the universe of Umineko. So what did her "present tense" mean to the timeline of the gameboard at all? What did it mean by "now"?

EDIT: By the way, I checked the ??? myself. And I see that Lambda had been using present tense a lot, even when she was discussing Battler and Beato's final battle. So I think the use of present tense was not relevant here at all. Read 楼座がマスターキーを管理して以降、それら全ては一度たりとも彼女の手を離れていない！, even though the time was specified as after Rosa keeping the master keys and probably EP2, Lambda did not use past tense. (unless you wanted to say Rosa had been keeping the master keys even until "now"?)

[Geekodot]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Hmm, what about Battler seeing Beatrice in the study at the end of Episode 2? That happened before midnight. It's been pretty common to say that he was drunk, but no one would mistake Kinzo by sight. There's no qualifications in that statement, so being drunk shouldn't matter at all. And Battler is the detective, so of course he's not lying.

Doesn't that mean the only way Kinzo could appear is if Battler was already killed before he opened the door?

That is exactly what I think myself ^^.

Genji did come to get him, which seems pretty strange considering there was no Kinzo to order him to get Battler... could it mean that Genji lured him to the study and killed him when he entered the door (which is the point where the normal world ends and the magic world starts).

Or was Battler killed by Rosa while she was in a paranoia and suspected him of placing the letter? That can also explain why Rosa and Maria suddenly left the barricaded parlor (which is something I've wondered about for a long time). The reason we didn't see it might be because Battler didn't have time to realize that he was shot before he died...

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Geekodot

If the bomber had planned to kill everyone with a bomb at the end of the fifth, or if he had planned to destroy the mansion for some reason after the family conference when everyone left (they were supposed to leave that day, remember), and the murderer was someone else with a different agenda working alone and knowing nothing of the bomb plan, then it is possible. The one who planted the bomb and the one who carries out the murders are individuals who know nothing of each others plans.

Then I just want to ask you...what reason would there be to destroy the mansion? Has there been any evidence throughout the games that anyone would gain something from the mansion being destroyed?
If there had been mention of Krauss having a high insurance running on the mansion I would agree that you could think in that direction...or if some grudge held by one of his children against this place of their youth was presented in general. But I saw none of that...

It's not that I want to annoy you, it's just that I don't see a bomb being hinted at anywhere during the 4 games.

Originally Posted by Geekodot

Natsuhi and Nanjo met someone at the 9th twilight, which is close, but not the end. If everyone dies at the tenth twilight, then all the tenth twilights could be magic scenes, because no witness survives.

Battler in Ep 4 couldn't have met with anyone. He was the only one on the island, and from this, I can conclude that the tenth twilight is a magic scene because he did meet the witch again when it was impossible to do so.

In conclusion, it is very well hinted that what you see 24.00 at the tenth twilight in every game is just a magic scene which makes it not real.

He could not meet with anybody, because he was alone, yes.
And yet he came upon something in the mansion that shoudln't be there.
It's the same as in Episode 2's finale, there shouldn't have been a human Beatrice waiting in Kinzo's study...yet it would be quite strange if he did not meet something there.

It's the same problem we have with Episode 5's letter and knocking during the family conference. There was nobody in the mansion who was able to execute that, nobody could enter the mansion from outside and still it was definitely somebody's hand that touched the door of the dining room and placed the letter at the foot of said door.
There definitely is somebody on that island who is able to play with the rules of existence and is somehow able to supress his presence that much that he/she is not even piercable by the red truth.

Originally Posted by ijriims

I hypothesized that Beatrice had already solved the epitaph and presented the answer to Kinzo.

Kinzo had chosen Beatrice to be her successor in his will (which was declared in EP4 during the family meeting, thus the red texts 親族会議に居合わせた全員が、金蔵の存在を認めた！), and Kinzo promised to help her to carry out her plan after his death by assigning Genji to help her.

Depending on who you think about Beatrice was. The remaining was different. I was merely stating how different murders arrived in different episodes while there could still be one common mastermind and bomber behind all.

Originally Posted by ijriims

After the WWII, Kinzo "stole" the gold from the real Beatrice's family, through Kinzo's secret lover Beatrice telling Kinzo the 10tons gold's whereabout (what Kinzo stole was not just gold, but 1952 Beatrice's love as well). Latter, the real Beatrice became the head of her family. So it could be said that the gold belonged to real Beatrice initially. The real Beatrice came to reclaim the gold from Kinzo but considering the temper of Kinzo. Would he give up the gold just because the golds' initial owner came to reclaim it? He created the epitaph to test the real Beatrice: if she could solve it, then she could take back the gold. If not, she could never find the gold herself.

Thus Beatrice had to solve the epitaph even though the gold belonged to her (and her family) from the beginning, because the gold were hidden by Kinzo.

Of course I too think that a backgroundstory like that is quite likely regarding the gold coming into Kinzo's posession. Yet it is said several times that the gold belongs to Beatrice and she has no gain in trying to solve the Epitaph.
Whoever is represented by Meta-Beato does not gain anything by the Epitaph being solved, therefore the Epitaph is not meant for her to begin with.
Even if it was her gold, if the Epitaph was meant for her, then solving the Epitaph would brought her some gain.

Who do you think is this Gameboard Beatrice then? And what is her motive?
And how can she be among the 17 people on the island and yet be not there at all?
We know it cannot be Natsuhi, because in Episode 5 it was stated that 夏妃。金蔵があんたの心に、片翼の鷲を刻むことを、いつ許したっての？　あんたの妄想の中の金蔵の言葉でし ょうが、それは。……本当の金蔵はね。生涯、ただの一度も！　あんたを心の底から信頼したこともないし、あ んたに紋章を許そうと思ったことも、ただの一度もないわ！ (Natsuhi. When did Kinzo permit you to engrave the one winged eagle into your heart? That was just the words of a Kinzo in your delusion. Because, not once in his lifetime, did the real Kinzo trust you from the bottom of his heart, nor did he think about permiting you this crest, not even once!).
And I don't think he trusted something else among his children enough to permit that person to wear his crest. So aquiring the persona of 'Kinzo' from himself would have proven quite difficult for anybody among his family.

I don't want to say that it is impossible for anybody (a servant for example) to aquire it from him, but I'd like to see it more reasonable concerning the 1st twilight of Episode 4...it is just like they said, they saw Ushiromiya Kinzo...it was never stated they saw him alive or that he really said all those things to them.
The red only points out, that the people in the dining room during Episode 4, saw and accepted to see Ushiromiya Kinzo.

Originally Posted by ijriims

You could not take Lambda's red texts directly. Just like one cannot take hers directly in EP5. Lambda had perfect motive to misdirect Battler (and so the readers) as she did not want Battler to beat the game.

I would be pretty thrilled to see where we get prove that Lambda's or Bern's red truth is any less valid then the red truth of any other character.
If we lay the rules to the game out to our liking we are bent to lose in the end, because we will be cheaters. The same can be said about what would happen if those two would use invalid red text...heck it was elaborated in the end of Episode 4 that you cannot utter wrong red.

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Hmm, what about Battler seeing Beatrice in the study at the end of Episode 2? That happened before midnight. It's been pretty common to say that he was drunk, but no one would mistake Kinzo by sight. There's no qualifications in that statement, so being drunk shouldn't matter at all. And Battler is the detective, so of course he's not lying.

Doesn't that mean the only way Kinzo could appear is if Battler was already killed before he opened the door?

Either it is that Battler is already dead and what we are seeing is similar to the scene of Rosa being tortured by Beatrice, or...I have another theory.

We don't know where Kinzo's corpse is and noone would mistake Kinzo by sight. Who tells us, that maybe Kinzo wasn't really still in his study during the course of Episode 2...maybe just as a preserved corpse.
I know the anime is not very well liked, but seeing that Ryukishi has some eye on it (see the Sakutarou bag) it could be a hint that Kinzo was not moving at all.

I would rather see Beatrice being clad in the witch's gown and Battler finally sucumbing to her 'truth' the point where reality is lost and teh presentation becomes unreliable.
Seeing his grandfather sitting in a chair, as if concentrated on a chessboard, is possible to achieve with a corpse. Battler was maybe just so drunk that he didn't notice the fact quite clearly that his grandfather was not moving at all.

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

I could accept that as a possibility if she'd been speaking in past tense, like "Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo did not commit murder (at that time)." The timestamp would be unclear in that case. But that's not what she said.

Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers! That's a present-tense statement, so it's applicable as of the moment Lambda spoke it. A murderer is someone who has at some point murdered another person. If I kill X, and then someone kills Y and Z, I don't stop being a murderer, because I've still killed X. The most conservative reading you could give it is that Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo did not murder anyone in Episode 1, and even that much of a restriction is questionable. They aren't even on the hook for Natsuhi's or the cousins' deaths after the 8th twilight, since all three of them were certainly dead, killed by other people.

I would see it so, too. I know it's tempting to take Genji as the culprit, because he survived until such a late point in both 1 and 2, but this red truth is pretty concrete.
And saying that this red truth can't be trusted undermines the whole concept of red truth...if you argued like that I could also say that none of Beato's or Eva-Beatrice's truth's can be trusted, I could argue therefore that there is in reality a terrible Urang-Utang loose on the island, which is killing everyone with a shotgun, which's handling he learned by watching a living Kinzo shooting seagulls a week earlier with living Beatrice in the garden of Kuwadorian.
I'm all ready to take the red truth with a grain of salt, but saying 源次、熊沢、南條は殺人者ではない！　(Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo are not murderers!) is pretty concrete and I would want to see a way around that red truth. Like LyricalAura said, it clearly says they are not murderers, a very general sentence.

[ijriims]

I think I cannot bend Beato and her leagues' red texts because she ultimately wanted someone to solve the mystery and stop her (as indicated in her letters-in-the-bottle). In her meta self, she wanted Battler to win over her as Battler was the only one remaining who didn't accept witch and magic (of course, his status of sorcerer in EP6 just contradict his previous stance somehow, he was to carry out the plan himself...).

But Lambda and Bern had different agenda from Beato, they manipulated the games between Battler and Beato for their own amuse. Lambda did not want either Battler or Bern win since she wanted Bern to keep staying in the game, while Bern was a stubborn witch who must keep on playing until winning.

In Ep5, Bern did not care about Battler but merely tried to win the game through Erika, Lambda had been confusing Battler throughout the game but she gave Battler the status of sorcerer in order to make the game draw again.

Because their motives were so different from Beato's, I would not credit their red texts or interpretation to the same degree as Beato. (actually, it was not their red texts being false or wrong at all, but mostly lying in their way of interpretation on the red texts and how much information was included in the red texts).

On the other hand, the interpretation of Beato's red texts was more trustworthy and closer to truth.

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Actually I do not need Genji be the murderer in EP1 (but his being murderer could make more sense in some cases like the 2nd twilight and the subsequent boiler incident), but I needed him to be a murderer in EP2. So, I need to assume that that red texts only applied to EP1 but not the other episodes.

----------------------------------------------
Why real Beatrice needed to solve the epitaph? Because her family needed money at that time. Not that I meant her family was like the siblings who were stripped of cash. But that her family could use the gold to restore its former glory.

I suppose you could deduce who I think the real Beatrice is.

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I wish the anime could give us more insights on the red texts in EP4. I have a complete hypothesis on the cases in EP1-4 as well as the background, but I cannot prove it as the "Answer" as I needed to interpret some red texts in my own ways.

In Umineko's term, my hypothesis is my blue texts and my blue texts are just blue texts. Multiple blue texts exist and it is a draw with many other theories, like in EP5

[Renall]

There is nothing at all impossible about ep4 Beatrice. Battler is alone on the island as of 24:00 on the 5th/6th (that is when the red applies, anyway). He meets Beatrice almost 24 hours before. At that point, anybody could still be alive (except George, probably). So anyone could have been Beatrice (or Beatrice could have been anyone). I think it's very likely that Battler met and spoke with an actual human being there, but he was convinced it was the witch of the portrait. Either somebody has a very good disguise or something else is going on, but that isn't the point; he could have very easily not been the only one at the island at midnight of the 4th/5th. And I'm of the opinion at least one person survived well into the 5th (besides him that is).

On arson and bombs. Arson is unlikely; remember, it was raining, so the house is unlikely to spontaneously catch fire short of a lightning strike or boiler explosion, both of which would be easy to identify. But most likely a person would have to "encourage" the house to burn down, and that would be something the police would notice. Likewise, a fire would not leave bodies destroyed or cause them to disappear; quite the opposite in fact, it would leave a lot of charred corpses in suspicious places. And if both the guesthouse and main house burned down at once... well, that'd be suspicious.

There is no evidence of a bomb of any sort. The only thing even remotely supporting this is the tunnel system, which at least sort of makes the possibility of some kind of munitions storage possible, if not entirely plausible.

That said, there is not really any evidence that I am aware of to support a volcano, earthquake, landslide etc. These things would all be dangerous in concert with the typhoon, but the typhoon is the only natural occurrence the games actually note. And even if the winds reached full-on hurricane peaks, there is no way it would lead to such a result.

Regarding Kinzo and "Kinzo." Battler suggests "Kinzo" could be a title. This suggestion is never actually countered, and it isn't the first time the argument was used (with Kanon, and that WAS countered). Is there, in fact, a person who is inheriting the persona of "Kinzo" somehow?

Well, how do you define a title like "Kinzo?" Is it the person who carries on the appearance of Kinzo's life (though this person cannot pose as Kinzo physically, per the red text)? In that sense, does ep5 not make it abundantly clear that "Kinzo" is Natsuhi?

So what does that say about ep4?

[ijriims]

One thing comes to my mind:

The police did find the two letters-in-the-bottle in EP4 (as a continuation in EP3, I guess). One of the letters was actually recovered a week after the incident. The problem was: the letters heavily implied that someone knew about the death of all people beforehand (they identified the letters as being thrown out some days before the incidents), and they probably observed that the death of the 18 people described in the letters were following the epitaph. It was also established that the letters must be written by someone who had been Rokkenjima before. So why they still identify the incident as accident even though there was such strong evidence that someone planned the death of the 18 people before the incidents?

Did the police know about the letter containing the bank card as well? If yes, how can the police still identify the case as accident if not something secret was behind?

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by ijriims

In Ep5, Bern did not care about Battler but merely tried to win the game through Erika, Lambda had been confusing Battler throughout the game but she gave Battler the status of sorcerer in order to make the game draw again.

Because their motives were so different from Beato's, I would not credit their red texts or interpretation to the same degree as Beato. (actually, it was not their red texts being false or wrong at all, but mostly lying in their way of interpretation on the red texts and how much information was included in the red texts).

On the other hand, the interpretation of Beato's red texts was more trustworthy and closer to truth.

What are you implying with 'the interpretation was more trustworthy'?
It's not about interpretations, it's about either accepting the content of the red truth to be what is proposed by the rules or to defy the rules given and create new ones which might not fit the game.

While Bern and Lambda may be cruel, they are still passionate players and I think cheating would be considered rude even among them. It is far more funny to play along the rules and defeat your enemy that way, then jumping to the goal immediatly through cheating.
They may be more in control of what they really say in red, but still it makes that red no less true or false then Beato's red.

Originally Posted by ijriims

Why real Beatrice needed to solve the epitaph? Because her family needed money at that time. Not that I meant her family was like the siblings who were stripped of cash. But that her family could use the gold to restore its former glory.

I suppose you could deduce who I think the real Beatrice is.

So does that mean you assume culprit 'Beatrice' is someone from the Sumadera family? If yes it would definitely be someone who has ample access to the island, as that person was meeting Maria for at least 3-4 years.
Yet it would also mean that she is not represented by Meta-Beatrice, as 'restoring families glory' would be a gain gotten from solving the epitaph.

And a possible relation to the Beatrice of the Portrait could be ruled out as well I think, because there is not the least bit of 'western archetype' within the Sumadera people.
They could more easily be children of Vargilia...

Originally Posted by ijriims

I wish the anime could give us more insights on the red texts in EP4. I have a complete hypothesis on the cases in EP1-4 as well as the background, but I cannot prove it as the "Answer" as I needed to interpret some red texts in my own ways.

What do you imply with 'interpret'?
If you've got a hypothesis then why not share it? Of course nobody so far can prove something as the answer, but as long as the rules of the games are followed different theories may help to filter out possible problems and noise that comes from too personal interpretation.

Originally Posted by Renall

There is nothing at all impossible about ep4 Beatrice. Battler is alone on the island as of 24:00 on the 5th/6th (that is when the red applies, anyway). He meets Beatrice almost 24 hours before. At that point, anybody could still be alive (except George, probably). So anyone could have been Beatrice (or Beatrice could have been anyone). I think it's very likely that Battler met and spoke with an actual human being there, but he was convinced it was the witch of the portrait. Either somebody has a very good disguise or something else is going on, but that isn't the point; he could have very easily not been the only one at the island at midnight of the 4th/5th. And I'm of the opinion at least one person survived well into the 5th (besides him that is).

Still that would leave the fact that someone was able to fake his death and avoid being detected. So nothing would keep that person from being the person who has been avoiding detection throughout all games.

Originally Posted by Renall

On arson and bombs. Arson is unlikely; remember, it was raining, so the house is unlikely to spontaneously catch fire short of a lightning strike or boiler explosion, both of which would be easy to identify. But most likely a person would have to "encourage" the house to burn down, and that would be something the police would notice. Likewise, a fire would not leave bodies destroyed or cause them to disappear; quite the opposite in fact, it would leave a lot of charred corpses in suspicious places. And if both the guesthouse and main house burned down at once... well, that'd be suspicious.

Not to mention that arson would also need someone to be present on the island during the time where nobody is said to be present anymore, yes.
I was just introducing the fact that arson would be a less far fetched idea...given the fact that the mansion is quite huge, one could have planted a fire near one of the corpses in the inner parts of the mansion and waited for it to spread.
Given the proposed size of the mansion at at least 3 stories (with an attic being also possible) the fire could have grown big enough even in a typhoon to consume the building, yet not grow out of control and spread towards Kuwadorian.

Yet an explosion could have send flying parts of burning debris into the forest and set some trees on fire. Even in a typhoon that would be hard to put out immediatly I assume, given the dense vegetation.
So soon the fire could have spread towards Kuawdorian.

Remember, we're talking about a distance that could, without forest, be crossed within 15-20 minutes. A controlled bombing would have needed an expert and the only one who could only remotely be one would be Hideyoshi (whatever he was doing during the war).

There is no evidence of a bomb of any sort. The only thing even remotely supporting this is the tunnel system, which at least sort of makes the possibility of some kind of munitions storage possible, if not entirely plausible.

Possible yes...but plausible, I don't know.
The only tunnel we know is accessible without problems is the one leading towards the gold's chamber. The one leading to Kuwadorian's cell block is supposedly blocked (see the end of Episode 4) and only accessible either through a special mechanism or it may be a one-way passage only.

We have yet to prove if there really is still an accessible tunnel beneath the actuall mansion, which would be needed to damage it enough from beneath to destroy it.

Originally Posted by Renall

Regarding Kinzo and "Kinzo." Battler suggests "Kinzo" could be a title. This suggestion is never actually countered, and it isn't the first time the argument was used (with Kanon, and that WAS countered). Is there, in fact, a person who is inheriting the persona of "Kinzo" somehow?

Well, how do you define a title like "Kinzo?" Is it the person who carries on the appearance of Kinzo's life (though this person cannot pose as Kinzo physically, per the red text)? In that sense, does ep5 not make it abundantly clear that "Kinzo" is Natsuhi?

So what does that say about ep4?

# 夏妃の指す“金蔵”とは右代宮金蔵以外の如何なるものも意味しない (The "Kinzo" used by Natsuhi holds not any other meaning than Ushiromiya Kinzo himself.)
# 夏妃は書斎にて23時に金蔵と対面したこと主張 (I testify that Natsuhi met Kinzo face to face in the study at 11 o'clock p.m.)

That there is a "Kinzo" present during the games which could be Natsuhi, the study or a replacement was discussed and offered in blue text during Episode 5, but was countered with those red truth's.
The problem is how we define how someone can pose as Kinzo, because to be accepted as 当主 (family head) one has to be at least in posession of the family ring and there is no indication that this ring was in posession of Natsuhi.

Kanon's personality was countered directly, because it was a gain for the witch's side to assure Battler that there was no chance for anyone else then Kanon to appear before the servants, if anybody appeared at all.
Kinzo's state of being is not further discussed because it was a high advantage (also on Ryukishi's side and we have to keep in mind we're also playing on a 2nd meta-plane against him) to leave him in an uncertain range of somehow existing and not existing at all.
Of course somebody seems to be posing as Kinzo, but I highly doubt this person to be Natsuhi...also given how highly she regards him I doubt she would portray him in a manner similar to Episode 4.

[Megaolix]

I'm tired of hearing about landslides and bombs just because of EP4. Here's my take on Battler being 'killed' while alone.

To kill someone does not automatically mean acting in a direct manner!

He was alone for day, knowing everyone else on the island was dead and not an idea as to who, how and why. At this point, he may have thought this was his fault. After all, he met someone that he saw as Beatrice, but failed to asnwer her question. 'Beatrice' is shocked that Battler does not remember his sin. She leaves, and then nothing else happens.

At this point, it is possible the culprit died (suicide), not even caring about anything else and thinking everything had been meaningless.

Battler is left alone. Find the corpses of everyone on the island. Probably wonders what the killer did after he failed to remember his sin. Who said he did not imagine then that the culprit simply stopped because he did not remember? That the killings happened because of him?

Thus, Battler was killed by Beatrice. Because Beatrice killed everyone else and Battler thought it was his fault, Beatrice 'killed' Battler.

Driving someone to suicide can be considered murder!

This is my opinion on it.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Megaolix

I'm tired of hearing about landslides and bombs just because of EP4. Here's my take on Battler being 'killed' while alone.

To kill someone does not automatically mean acting in a direct manner!

He was alone for day, knowing everyone else on the island was dead and not an idea as to who, how and why. At this point, he may have thought this was his fault. After all, he met someone that he saw as Beatrice, but failed to asnwer her question. 'Beatrice' is shocked that Battler does not remember his sin. She leaves, and then nothing else happens.

At this point, it is possible the culprit died (suicide), not even caring about anything else and thinking everything had been meaningless.

Battler is left alone. Find the corpses of everyone on the island. Probably wonders what the killer did after he failed to remember his sin. Who said he did not imagine then that the culprit simply stopped because he did not remember? That the killings happened because of him?

Thus, Battler was killed by Beatrice. Because Beatrice killed everyone else and Battler thought it was his fault, Beatrice 'killed' Battler.

Driving someone to suicide can be considered murder!

This is my opinion on it.

The only problem is この島にあなたはたった一人。そしてもちろん、私はあなたではない。なのに私は今、ここにいて、これからあ なたを殺します (You are the only one on this island. And naturally, I am not you. despite this I am now here and will kill you now (implying from the moment this is said).).

If Battler commited suicide he would naturally be the one killing him(self), even if some outside force induced that self-killing.

The only weak point I see in that sentence right now is the differentiation between この島 (this island) and ここ (here). Of course implicative grammar rules would say that those two refer to the same place...yet it could be they don't have to, if Beatrice was able to point towards the island as being near her while she was not technically on it.

[Megaolix]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

If Battler commited suicide he would naturally be the one killing him(self), even if some outside force induced that self-killing.

Who said both can't be true together? He did the act, but Beatrice's influence killed him. I still stand by what I said.

[Workworkwork]

Alternatively, Beatrice really DID do it.

Reaching back into the old bag of tricks with "Furniture do not equal people", even if it does not apply to Kanon or Shannon, what about Human!Beato, "The Ushiromiya Families furniture"?

Perhaps the one who, at that very moment, decided she was a person and Battler needed to die?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Workworkwork

Alternatively, Beatrice really DID do it.

Reaching back into the old bag of tricks with "Furniture do not equal people", even if it does not apply to Kanon or Shannon, what about Human!Beato, "The Ushiromiya Families furniture"?

Perhaps the one who, at that very moment, decided she was a person and Battler needed to die?

That's Unknown Person X again. There is no Unknown Person X. It would spoil the whole mystery.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

Still that would leave the fact that someone was able to fake his death and avoid being detected. So nothing would keep that person from being the person who has been avoiding detection throughout all games.

What? No, nobody had to fake their death at the time Battler meets Beatrice in ep4. You don't actually trust the magic scenes, right? Other than George (and I even have my doubts there), every single person on the island could be alive at the exact moment Battler meets Beatrice. Granted, the people in the dining room would have to die very quickly thereafter (before Battler can go to the chapel, get a key, and return, since he appears to head right to the dining room), but it still works. Battler doesn't even find Jessica, Kyrie, Krauss, Nanjo, or Shannon until the next morning. There's no proof they died before midnight. For all Battler can prove, they died 5 minutes before he found them.

Any of these people could have met with Battler and then later died. Jessica, Kyrie, and Shannon happen to be some of the most popularly theorized "Beatrice" candidates, too. Of course, the three of them happen to die in very curious ways, but there are plenty of imaginary scenarios in which they can all die the way they do:

1) Kyrie was "Beatrice." Someone listens in on her call, waits for her to come back after meeting Battler, and kills her and places her body as she described it to Battler on the phone. This person dies in some other way. (Problems: The killer cannot be Kanon, is unlikely to be Maria, George's death is hard to fake, everyone else dies from difficult circumstances)

2) Jessica was "Beatrice." She describes how she's going to die, kills everyone but Maria, shoots herself (or kills herself and orders Maria to do something to her body), Maria hides the weapon and kills herself. (Problems: Would Maria go along with it?)

3) Shannon was "Beatrice." She eventually finds herself at the well with Nanjo and either kills him or they agree to kill themselves with him going first. Shannon arranges the weapon so that it will fall through the slats in the grate covering the well and kills herself. The stakes lying by the bodies are coincidental or Nanjo placed them before he died. (Problems: What was the weapon? If it was something used on corpses, not to kill with, she can't do this.)

4) Anyone was "Beatrice." George wasn't dead. Battler goes to meet with Beatrice (he never sees George's body again from this point on). George gets into the house ahead of Battler or after Battler and kills whoever is "Beatrice" before she can make contact with Battler again. George wanders off and succumbs to his injury (if it was real) or kills himself. (Problems: Battler got a very close look at George and seemed to think he was definitely dead, but nobody else's body but Maria's is really in a state where they could still be alive after Battler sees them)

I could go on. ep4 is open-ended enough that I can come up with scenarios where just about everyone in the house is alive until mere minutes before Battler finds the first set of bodies in the dining hall. The important things are that Kanon can't kill Kyrie (since he has to die first out of "Kyrie's group" which must at least include himself and her), and Kyrie can't be the last one alive (it's impossible to get staked like that if no one does it for you).

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

That's Unknown Person X again. There is no Unknown Person X. It would spoil the whole mystery.

She's not unknown, you ship-sinker.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

Then I just want to ask you...what reason would there be to destroy the mansion? Has there been any evidence throughout the games that anyone would gain something from the mansion being destroyed?

At one point, Kinzo mentions that he came into the world with nothing, and he'll go out with nothing, and stresses that he has no intention of leaving any inheritance for his children. Perhaps he really meant that quite literally, and had set up something to destroy the mansion and chapel (though not the guesthouse; that was legitimately Krauss's) if he died.

Also, perhaps Krauss was in the habit of spending the day after the conference off the island with his family, so Kinzo set the bomb so it would go off on the day after the conference.

=====

In episode 3, one of the adults suggest the first twilight is a "game" organized by Kinzo. Maybe the various scenarios (2, 3, and 4 at least) were planned as "games" by Kinzo (though never intended as anything other than a game or test), and the real killer played it for real. The first twilight victims agreed to "playact" their parts until the killer started acting for real.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by ijriims

One thing comes to my mind:

The police did find the two letters-in-the-bottle in EP4 (as a continuation in EP3, I guess). One of the letters was actually recovered a week after the incident. The problem was: the letters heavily implied that someone knew about the death of all people beforehand (they identified the letters as being thrown out some days before the incidents), and they probably observed that the death of the 18 people described in the letters were following the epitaph. It was also established that the letters must be written by someone who had been Rokkenjima before. So why they still identify the incident as accident even though there was such strong evidence that someone planned the death of the 18 people before the incidents?

Did the police know about the letter containing the bank card as well? If yes, how can the police still identify the case as accident if not something secret was behind?

Two possible reasons:

1) They were pretty sure it was an incident, and nothing suggested otherwise
2) The messages in the bottle talk about a witch reviving ritual and in the end everyone is swallowed by the golden land. This isn't exactly what the police would consider a reliable source. They have probably though it was a prank or some sort of game which tragically happened to become true on the "everyone dies" part.


About the bank account, I would say myself that it is hard to believe that the police didn't find out, however it appears that it is the case. If they really had known, don't you think that they would inquire on all the surviving relatives to see if they also received such a letter? Unless you claim that the police is less competent than a demented cockroach this is a very unlikely scenario.
We can be sure that Nanjo's son never informed the police, Kumasawa's son doesn't have a clue, and Ange threw the letter away.

Originally Posted by Megaolix

I'm tired of hearing about landslides and bombs just because of EP4. Here's my take on Battler being 'killed' while alone.

To kill someone does not automatically mean acting in a direct manner!

He was alone for day, knowing everyone else on the island was dead and not an idea as to who, how and why. At this point, he may have thought this was his fault. After all, he met someone that he saw as Beatrice, but failed to asnwer her question. 'Beatrice' is shocked that Battler does not remember his sin. She leaves, and then nothing else happens.

At this point, it is possible the culprit died (suicide), not even caring about anything else and thinking everything had been meaningless.

Battler is left alone. Find the corpses of everyone on the island. Probably wonders what the killer did after he failed to remember his sin. Who said he did not imagine then that the culprit simply stopped because he did not remember? That the killings happened because of him?

Thus, Battler was killed by Beatrice. Because Beatrice killed everyone else and Battler thought it was his fault, Beatrice 'killed' Battler.

Driving someone to suicide can be considered murder!

This is my opinion on it.

It might work but I'd give it a 40/100 at best.

The big problem in your theory is that the idea of Battler killing himself isn't very likely. The idea that Battler has been driven to kill himself merely because all of his close relatives were killed isn't really working for me, especially for the fact that it isn't true.

Let's compare Eva and Battler respectively at the end of Ep3 and Ep4.

Eva had all the reasons to kill herself, her husband and her only son which she treasured above anything else were dead. It appears that she doesn't have any close friend so basically she had lost anything. Fulfilling her dream to become the next head certainly was a positive factor but considering the way she lived afterward we can be pretty sure that it wasn't worth the loss of the persons she loved.

As for Battler he didn't really lose any significant person. While he didn't hate Rudolf anymore it can't be said that he was so important to him. And he certainly respected Kyrie but not at the point that he would kill himself for her. Same thing goes for his cousins, which he likes but the fact that he practically never met them for six long years hints that he wasn't very close to them.
In addition Battler didn't lose everything, he still had Ange. A 6 years old girl that was waiting for him. A girl who had lost both parents and was going to have an incredibly sad life if even her brother would die.
For Battler to kill himself not only you'd have to think that he was loser for giving up so easily but also that he was an incredibly irresponsible and selfish person.

Do you picture Battler that way? I know I don't.

Originally Posted by chounokoe

T

About the 'bombs beneath Rokkenjima' theory, surely possible...but it was said that you can get towards the answer with what EP1-4 gives you and there is surely not enough hard evidence pointing towards a military base, or any other facility harboring explosives, being located on Rokkenjima.
While Germany and Japan had a relation during WWII they fought individual battles and never really involved each other in the military regions of the other, and while I find it perfectly ample to believe that Beatrice might have been a woman of German descent based on her features, her love for English seems to imply either American or English descent.
Then again how would the bombs be set off? There is the accident through a small earthquake, but that is nonsense since there have been enough earthquakes in that area (alone this summer there were around 10 in closer proximity of where Rokkenjima would be located)...that would again require to much 'chance' and would be an even bigger miracle than Erika reaching the island.

Yes there is still the fact of Battler being alone, yet being killed...which is the big paradoxon which is leading us to the whole discussion.
But if it had to be a bomb it had to be prepared for a certain radius and a certain time to explode. Yet if the culprit was able to somehow avoid being present and yet being able to kill Nanjo in Episode 3 or Natsuhi in Episode 1, why would he bring him/herself in immediate danger of being killed in 'the explosion'? The problem here is that there would be no logic for that action and therefore it seems pretty much wrong compared to the otherwise very orchestrated crimes.

Arson may be the only 'accident' that would prove itself not totally counterproductive or too accidental to be true.

Why you say that Beatrice loves English? Kinzo certainly does, but I can't remember something that would definitely hint that way for Beatrice. Sure she used some broken english sentences when she called Battler on Ep4, but that was meant to mock him.
If we take what we see in the anime as true, then I think it can be rather said that Beatrice prefers to write in italian. Something that supports this is the fact that in the EP2 of the novel Beatrice mentions italian sweets.
Italy was another country that was part of the axis at the time of WWII, 'though Italy's regime fell before the end of the war and German troops from allied forces became occupying forces. It is therefore a lot of harder to imagine that the gold came form some italian officer that tried to find refuge in Japan.


About the arson/fire theory, I'd like to point out that by the end of October 5 the typhoon has already subsided. This is proven by the fact that in the novel the rain effect and sound are not there at that time and by the fact that the seagulls are supposed to cry in a few hours from then.