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Old 2007-09-28, 00:17   Link #21
Ziv
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoab View Post
A reminder that thanks to the wording of the DMCA, anything "enabling" copyright infringement can be C&D'd. If there are instructions to use a black pen to bypass copyright protection, the company can C&D them to remove that information.


And they are going to point to all the people around you and ask how many of them have fansubs and are buying the DVDs too. The numbers the industry puts out indicate less than 10% of fansub watchers buy DVDs on average.
Those numbers are meaningless without any statistics from non-fansubbed shows to compare to. That may very well be an extremely good percentage. Furthermore it says nothing about the actual number of DVDs sold. Fansub viewers might buy 10 times as many DVDs as the average DVD consumer. No matter how you look at it, those numbers are useless.

Last edited by Ziv; 2007-09-28 at 01:12.
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Old 2007-09-28, 01:08   Link #22
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Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
More rationally minded is the notion they're not in full control of their product under the current situation.... but they have not yet provided the sort of "preview" mechanism that lets consumers make informed choices about purchasing (like the japanese consumers have by watching the broadcasts).
That's not a fair argument. What you call "preview," a television broadcast, provides significant revenue from advertisements. That's just plain not possible for anime in NA.

IGN more often than not has the first episode for free now. Without some sort of revenue stream, that's probably the best you will see in the form of a preview. Realistically speaking, you will probably never see the kind of "preview" in NA that's comparable to fansubs or television broadcasts.

-----------------

The bigger issue imo is that NA licensees focus too much on DVD sales. But then they shoot themselves in the foot with their ridiculous marketing, promotion, and expansion tactics (or lack thereof).

It seems that NA distributors really love to cater towards hardcore fans. From keeping the name Utaware to the Haruhi thing, it seems they pretty much try to satisfy the existing fanbase. That is a HUGE, HUGE mistake. You do whatever it takes to expand the market, not cater to the core. The results of this is seen again and again. Wii, WoW, nuff said. If you're part of a niche market and you can drive growth into untapped segments of the populace you literally become millionaires overnight. Growth should always be the absolute priority number 1 for any design or marketing team.

Secondly, fine, if they're really obsessed with just only the core fanbase and nobody else, then they at least need to expand their operations. It is absolutely critical to establish some sort of official community so they can start pushing merchandising. With any sort of creative property a very large portion of your revenue comes from licensed merchandise. As of right now they're just refusing free money.

Sort of went on a tangent, but the point is they make way too much fuss over their DVD business when 1) they don't run it very well, and 2) they should focus on more profitable opportunities. The industry has gone backwards since the turn of the century. That is the economic definition of incompetence. A couple C&Ds will not solve their problems. But they can go on believing that it's all because of the fansubbers right until they get their pink slip.

RIAA spends millions of dollars per year to fight online non-profit piracy and it does... nothing. Take note maybe? Even if they throw out a C&D those fansubs will still exist, so why?

Last edited by ImperialPanda; 2007-09-28 at 01:29.
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Old 2007-09-28, 01:31   Link #23
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The few that actually buy some of the anime after you watch it, I respect you for doing so. Unfortunately the large portion of downloaders these days only download and watch. It has gotten bad enough to the point when anime that is shown on TV that the downloaders won't even watch it on TV even though it is free and it can help the studio by bringing in sponsors.
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Old 2007-09-28, 01:53   Link #24
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Originally Posted by nhat View Post
The few that actually buy some of the anime after you watch it, I respect you for doing so. Unfortunately the large portion of downloaders these days only download and watch. It has gotten bad enough to the point when anime that is shown on TV that the downloaders won't even watch it on TV even though it is free and it can help the studio by bringing in sponsors.
I see. This must be why movie studios and recording labels are going out of business. Since pretty much everything can be downloaded for free.

Oh wait, if you look at the biggest box office openings, the top 20 are ALL made in 2002+, with the top 3 in 2007.

So maybe not.

Remember, sometimes, what you think is common sense might not be so factual.

Drawing on another comparison. The highest grossing film in 2007 - Spiderman 3, earned $381m. The next highest not in 2007? 2005 Star Wars Episode 3 at $303m. This is a healthy growth that will happen if you run a business properly.

Last edited by ImperialPanda; 2007-09-28 at 02:07.
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Old 2007-09-28, 02:41   Link #25
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oh, wait, if you look at the overall grossings with adjusted inflation, the first title from the 2000's is Shrek 2 at place 29: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

I agree that downloading is not the only cause of the decline of sales, but anime is targeted at an audience that has limited funds (teens to students) that is additionally very tech-savy. And at the price of zero, there's always a demand for anything.

And Funimation has this "strategic partnership" with GONZO, so it's not surprising for me at all that they act on behalf of them.

CU,
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Old 2007-09-28, 03:43   Link #26
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Originally Posted by Ziv View Post
Those numbers are meaningless without any statistics from non-fansubbed shows to compare to. That may very well be an extremely good percentage. Furthermore it says nothing about the actual number of DVDs sold. Fansub viewers might buy 10 times as many DVDs as the average DVD consumer. No matter how you look at it, those numbers are useless.
I will ask how you are supposed to compare the amount of exposure to a product. Obviously, the more exposures, the more sales you obtain. The question really is, which method of exposure produces the highest percentage of sales of a product. It doesn't matter if they buy 10 times as many DVDs if they are only buying 1 DVD for every 5 shows they watch.

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Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
I believe the phrase is "numbers pulled out of some industry orifice" .... these are the same sort of noises punted by the recording industry that get shredded by independent studies. Until they produce their study protocols and data, I politely call "wishful thinking" on that sound bite. A more credible objection is the notion they're not in full control of their product under the current situation.... but they have not yet provided the sort of "preview" mechanism that lets consumers make informed choices about purchasing (like the japanese consumers have by watching the broadcasts).
Well, thats only partially true. Thats not actually a sound bite. Thats a number I calculated from public statistics. The numbers the companies give out do not say who bought the product. Therefore, the said 10% is probably an overestimation.

I had previously computed this number off Inuyasha as a best chance estimate. I only quickly recalculated this off the recent public info from various series like To Heart and information leaking from Geneon. I am pretty sure if you redo the math again, you will find the same numbers. The Japanese sales are public (We have a thread here about them.) and you will likely get about the same numbers if you used those for an estimate. Remember that it's rare for US sales to well outperform Japanese sales.

That said, Gonzo actually tried to allow people to legally preview Romeo x Juliet. They brought a few episodes over and held multiple official screenings and panels during conventions over the summer. Gonzo has gone beyond what the usual Japanese company will do to try and increase sales in this country so this C&D isn't exactly out of the blue.
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Old 2007-09-28, 04:01   Link #27
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Well... if they give me the same opportunity to view the series as they do in Japan (aka the entire broadcast series) before buying the DVDs - then, as one of their paying customers, my complaints vanish. As an aside, what is the percentage of japanese viewers of a broadcast series versus number of R2 DVD set sales? (I doubt they think they're going to get a 1:1)

I guess what mdauben and I, at least, are saying is that they wouldn't have us as customers without broadcast subs of series being available. So if they managed to shutdown all fansubs without providing an equivalency of previewing -- my annual purchases will drop like a paralyzed falcon because I'm very unlikely to risk a few hundred dollars on the basis of a sample episode or trailer.
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Old 2007-09-28, 04:04   Link #28
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Hands up, everybody. In the last 3 years, who bought a DVD of a show he hasn't learned about before by other means (fansubs, TV, manga)? As a reference: My last "blind purchases" were 4 years ago, and I regret them till today.

Once more, a question to everybody: Which was the last successful show which went without fansubs/TV, and which was converted to a R1 DVD? I mean, there are many animes each season which aren't touched by any fansub group.

Anyone?
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Old 2007-09-28, 04:19   Link #29
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Originally Posted by ImperialPanda View Post
The bigger issue imo is that NA licensees focus too much on DVD sales. [...] It seems that NA distributors really love to cater towards hardcore fans.
It is a home video market all right, but to say they only try to cater to hardcore fans is a bit too much. Admittedly Bandai Visual is now trying to bring out 'high-quality'=='expensive' products while excluding a certain portion of DVD purchasing crowds with their high prices, especially the casual fans who represent the majority of DVD customers. I actually applaud their tactic because it focuses more on hardcore crowds that aren't bothered by somewhat steep DVD prices. Other big name companies, especially ADV, really try to push their anime on TV channels, employ heavy advertising whereever possible, make DVD covers as noticable as possible, make their DVDs as cheap as possible, iTunes distribution etc. That indicates they are not focusing only on hardcore crowds, they're doing everything they can to present anime to the larger portion of the fandom--the casual fans. However, anime titles simply don't sell that well. Your average American fan wants to see anime on television. That's simply not possible because of the obscure nature of many shows. Sadly, American TV broadcasters recognise that fact. What sells in mainstream is kids' shounen shows (Naruto, Bleach) and not much else.
Quote:
Secondly, fine, if they're really obsessed with just only the core fanbase and nobody else, then they at least need to expand their operations. It is absolutely critical to establish some sort of official community so they can start pushing merchandising. With any sort of creative property a very large portion of your revenue comes from licensed merchandise. As of right now they're just refusing free money.
Why does NA anime home video distribution even exist? Because of DVD/BD regional distribution limitations, and obviously the language barrier. Figurines, models, toys, artbooks, and other such merchandise do not present those limitations. These items can simply be imported, there is no need for licencing these products. Companies like AnimeNation, Robert's Anime Corner Store and others do just that. Big name companies like Square Enix and Viz licence merchandise, but they obviously don't represent how this works in NA.
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Old 2007-09-28, 04:56   Link #30
bayoab
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Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
Hands up, everybody. In the last 3 years, who bought a DVD of a show he hasn't learned about before by other means (fansubs, TV, manga)?
My hand is up. But yes, these are a minority of my purchases.

Quote:
Once more, a question to everybody: Which was the last successful show which went without fansubs/TV, and which was converted to a R1 DVD? I mean, there are many animes each season which aren't touched by any fansub group.

Anyone?
There is one major problem. Any show that gets pre-licensed seems to get subbed anyway. (Even if they get C&D'd.) Finding a show that made it through it's entire run without an episode being subbed and then getting licensed is very difficult. Do pre-existing franchises count? (i.e. GITS:Laughing Man,)
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Old 2007-09-28, 09:51   Link #31
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Not surprised they did. Gonzo was one of the companies that came out to back the crackdown in Singapore recently.
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Old 2007-09-28, 11:30   Link #32
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Originally Posted by lamer_de View Post
oh, wait, if you look at the overall grossings with adjusted inflation, the first title from the 2000's is Shrek 2 at place 29: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

I agree that downloading is not the only cause of the decline of sales, but anime is targeted at an audience that has limited funds (teens to students) that is additionally very tech-savy. And at the price of zero, there's always a demand for anything.

And Funimation has this "strategic partnership" with GONZO, so it's not surprising for me at all that they act on behalf of them.

CU,
lamer_de
This type of "adjusted for inflation" data for movies that are more than decades old are not to be taken at face value. You have to account for the fact that these movies have been around for much longer and have had multiple releases in some cases. My next point about that list kind of blends in with the issue of fansubs.

Movie piracy has been around for many many years, and when you take the movie industry overall, it is still booming. The reason why? They adapted, where when you make a similar comparison to the music business, which has not. While the MPAA has its share of lawsuits, and that's necessary, they have not gone the super litigious route of the RIAA. The movie industry has done the right thing, making it so there is something more to purchasing a movie ticket or DVD then just watching the movie. Copies of movies on torrents are available for download the day after the movie comes out, but they still pull in tens of millions on release. Not only did they make the theater experience something that draws people, but they are able to promote merchandise. Think of Halloween costumes for instance, a relative mine works at one of the top 3 costume making companies, and this year they sold tens of millions of dollars worth of Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers costumers. You compare this kind of adaptation to the market to the RIAA which has failed with its litigious route.

The anime industry needs to take a look at itself and adapt to the piracy situation in some other way other than trying to eradicate fansubs through lawsuits. They need to take a lesson from the booming movie industry, and while I don't think they can use the same methods as the movie industry, they need to at least try to come up with something.
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Old 2007-09-28, 11:59   Link #33
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Originally Posted by ImperialPanda View Post
That's not a fair argument. What you call "preview," a television broadcast, provides significant revenue from advertisements. That's just plain not possible for anime in NA.
Form what was explain to me by others in the forum. In Japan, the anime companies pay the tv stations to air the anime. Not the other way around. The financial backers of the anime make their money back by selling cds, dvds, figures, and other related merchandise. Basically anime on japanese tv is a big informarcial.

Quote:
I
The bigger issue imo is that NA licensees focus too much on DVD sales. But then they shoot themselves in the foot with their ridiculous marketing, promotion, and expansion tactics (or lack thereof).

It seems that NA distributors really love to cater towards hardcore fans. From keeping the name Utaware to the Haruhi thing, it seems they pretty much try to satisfy the existing fanbase. That is a HUGE, HUGE mistake. You do whatever it takes to expand the market, not cater to the core. The results of this is seen again and again. Wii, WoW, nuff said. If you're part of a niche market and you can drive growth into untapped segments of the populace you literally become millionaires overnight. Growth should always be the absolute priority number 1 for any design or marketing team.
There is also a danger in aliening your core base and not attract enough new fans to replace the core and your company could go out of business.

One example of this was Greyhawk, the original D&D game setting. In a attempt to expand thier fanbase, the company alienate the core fans. In the end they lose the core fans and did not gain enough new fans. So greyhawk ended up in the dumper.

currently Wotc is doing the same thing with the Forgotten Realm. The transition form 3rd ed to 4th and a lot of thier core fans (myself inlcude) is not happy. It will be interesting to see if the new 4th ed marketing desicion will work or single the end of FR.

However that doesn't mean i am agianst companies trying to expand but they need really think carefully whether the new approach is going to work. if they make the worng decision small niche companies like anime companies could easliy go bankrupt.

Personally i think the best way for the anime company in the us to expand their base is to offered the anime free to the tv stations. doesn't matter what time slot or even what station just get it on air and get some exposure.
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Old 2007-09-28, 14:32   Link #34
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This was posted on ANN as a follow-up. Note that this is something posted on ANN without a source or anything, so take it's contents with a really really large grain of salt. If this is true, I would guess that it's some sort of trial balloon, testing out to see if fans would be pissed off at this. If not they would probably send out vast quantities of the letters to stop fansubbers, as it isn't very expensive to do.

Quote:
The unofficial anime subtitling group Shinsen-Subs reported that it had received a letter Thursday which requested that Shinsen-Subs cease and desist its subtitling of Gonzo's Romeo × Juliet anime series. The distribution company FUNimation Entertainment sent the letter on behalf of Romeo × Juliet's Japanese studio Gonzo. Shinsen-Subs stated it has "already complied to the requests in the letter, and this project is hereby dropped."

FUNimation has confirmed that it did send the letter on behalf of Gonzo and that the series has not yet been licensed to a distributor in North America. In a statement to ANN, FUNimation said, "…[I]t is important to note that the rights owned by Japanese producers are still applicable, and enforceable, worldwide even before the anime is licensed for local distribution."

In a situation similar to Gonzo's, the Japanese anime distributor Media Factory's law firm requested that several websites and subtitling groups stop the unauthorized distribution of Media Factory's titles in December of 2004. The titles included ones which did not have local distributor in North America at the time. Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex scriptwriter Yoshiki Sakurai asked American fans to buy anime, instead of downloading without authorization, in a December 2002 post on the Production I.G forum. At the time, the Stand Alone Complex series was still running in Japan, and had been effectively licensed but not yet released by Bandai Entertainment and Manga Entertainment in North America.

FUNimation's statement added, "FUNimation Entertainment, along with others in the industry both in Japan and North America, have long understood that unauthorized distribution of anime, especially prior to localization, is very harmful to Japanese producers because it lowers the value of the anime on the worldwide market. For this reason, Japanese producers are highly motivated to stop unauthorized distribution. We believe there will be a strong trend toward these types of anti-infringement actions being taken more regularly and systematically."

In regards to a possible license of the Romeo × Juliet anime re-imagining of William Shakespeare's romantic play, FUNimation said, "…[O]f course it is a fine show, and we would very much like to distribute it" in the United States.

FUNimation concluded, "As part of the longstanding relationship between FUNimation and Gonzo, we have been asked to monitor and take action against unauthorized distribution of all Gonzo's current new titles. Because we believe that this will benefit FUNimation, and the industry in general, we have agreed to do so."

Thank you to Zalis116 for the news tip.
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Old 2007-09-28, 15:16   Link #35
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Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
Hands up, everybody. In the last 3 years, who bought a DVD of a show he hasn't learned about before by other means (fansubs, TV, manga)? As a reference: My last "blind purchases" were 4 years ago, and I regret them till today.

Once more, a question to everybody: Which was the last successful show which went without fansubs/TV, and which was converted to a R1 DVD? I mean, there are many animes each season which aren't touched by any fansub group.

Anyone?
Well, this is a causation and correlation problem, as I'm sure you realize. There are many shows each season that aren't fansubbed, but that's typically because most fansubbers don't find them interesting. If the fansubbers don't find them interesting, it stands to reason that the viewers (as a general rule) wouldn't find them interesting, and so there wouldn't be huge interest in them among R1 licensors. Successful R1 releases tend to be fansubbed beforehand, but that doesn't mean they're successful because of fansubs. And in terms of blind purchases, I have bought shows "blind" within the last three years, but it's not a matter of habit simply because it doesn't usually have to be. How would my purchases be affected if I absolutely could not watch or in any way preview any anime until it appeared on DVD? I have a policy of buying everything I watch, but would other be more likely to purchase certain shows if they weren't able to download them anymore? It's all so hypothetical... really, who can know?

I don't think anyone, in the industry or outside of it, can truly claim to know the long-term market consequences of eliminating fansubs and piracy (assuming it were even possible). I'm sure they don't mind people who purchase after downloading, but they sure would like to eliminate those who don't buy because they can just download instead. Unfortunately, you can't eliminate the one without affecting the other, hence the dilemma. At the end of the day, someone has to decide if it's a "net loss" or a "net gain", and I'm sure it's not too trivial. There are no simple solutions to complex problems.
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Old 2007-09-28, 15:17   Link #36
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Bleh... more fun in the vein of MFI.
It is a strange move by GONZO indeed. I mean, here we have a company that is known to have less of a (quality) reputation than MFI. ...To where if it's GONZO, the expectations in the public eye are that the title is not going to be good.

Consumers to buy GONZO titles? Hell, it's tough enough to give it away for free. This title? I don't really know that much about it. ...A tragedy in the end this seems.
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Old 2007-09-28, 17:56   Link #37
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If that release Calawain quoted isn't loaded with salt.... ah well, I can guarantee the industry's sales to me will plummet if they don't provide some way for me to watch the broadcast series before buying their supposedly precious DVDs.

In the end, I'm the guy with the wallet who makes decisions on whether they get any of its contents and I rather prefer having proper data before purchasing anything.

Misrepresenting speculation as fact ("have long understood that unauthorized distribution of anime, especially prior to localization, is very harmful to Japanese producers because it lowers the value of the anime on the worldwide market") doesn't improve my attitude as I glance over at $1000s of dollars in DVDs that I'd have never purchased without fansubs.

Meh, I've stated my position and said enough
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Old 2007-09-28, 17:57   Link #38
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All I can say is that, while I may not be able to buy everything I like immediately, I do support my favorite shows. As soon as I found out Mai-Otome (essentially the show that kicked me headfirst into the world of anime beyond the mainstream) had a license, I made sure I'd buy all the DVDs. Even Zwei. It's just loyalty to a product.

(That, and for an amateur videomaker, fansubs are terrible. I don't want subbing clogging up my projects that I do in my spare time).

But I do think that fansubs are important as well. If it weren't for fansubs, I don't think I'd ever be in the anime section of my local Best Buy, scouting out what they have. Yet because of them, I was there last Tuesday getting Haruhi 3.

I don't see why people wouldn't want to buy the DVDs if they're a fan of anime, no matter what the show is. That's all I'll say on this for now - that fansubs and R1 releases are closely linked to me - the first is a test run, the second is me having it bigger and better and taking up less hard drive space and more shelf space.
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Old 2007-09-29, 01:50   Link #39
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Well, this is a causation and correlation problem, as I'm sure you realize. There are many shows each season that aren't fansubbed, but that's typically because most fansubbers don't find them interesting. If the fansubbers don't find them interesting, it stands to reason that the viewers (as a general rule) wouldn't find them interesting, and so there wouldn't be huge interest in them among R1 licensors. Successful R1 releases tend to be fansubbed beforehand, but that doesn't mean they're successful because of fansubs. And in terms of blind purchases, I have bought shows "blind" within the last three years, but it's not a matter of habit simply because it doesn't usually have to be. How would my purchases be affected if I absolutely could not watch or in any way preview any anime until it appeared on DVD? I have a policy of buying everything I watch, but would other be more likely to purchase certain shows if they weren't able to download them anymore? It's all so hypothetical... really, who can know?
This is a fair point, and in fact, something I subscribe to, aswell. I was posing the questions in response to those omniscient people who without any trace of doubt regurgitate the same old litany that evil fansubs caused the downfall of <insert last belly-up company>, probably while they're waiting for their torrents to finish.

These are my counterpoints:

1) I know for a fact that I won't be purchasing a new DVD "blind" unless I know for sure or at least can gauge by prior knowledge that the content is good. That means that I'll watch the show at least raw, but fansub is preferred. And I believe that this position of mine is representative for a large (if not the major) part of the fanbase.

2) If fansubs would indeed "kill" sales, there should be examples of good shows which sold well in R1 without fansubs. Because - sorry - it's not like every good show out there would actually be fansubbed. Not at all. Still waiting for prominent fansub-unspoiled examples.

3) There's one group of shows which should do the BEST sales numbers, according to the fansub-denouncers: Those which had initial episodes fansubbed, and who then stalled. Here, fansubs would prove that initial interest WAS there, and the LACK of fansubs afterwards allow for a true realization of market potential. If their theory was correct, it should ALSO show that the sales of the LATER episodes should increase over those which were available fansubbed.

So, where's the meat, I wonder?

Quote:
I don't think anyone, in the industry or outside of it, can truly claim to know the long-term market consequences of eliminating fansubs and piracy (assuming it were even possible).
A bit less likely than eliminating movie/music piracy. So, no, not possible.

Quote:
I'm sure they don't mind people who purchase after downloading, but they sure would like to eliminate those who don't buy because they can just download instead. Unfortunately, you can't eliminate the one without affecting the other, hence the dilemma. At the end of the day, someone has to decide if it's a "net loss" or a "net gain", and I'm sure it's not too trivial. There are no simple solutions to complex problems.
I think I agree. However, due to the observations raised by me above AND due to the fact that I know what causes ME to purchase (or more exactly, what prevents me from purchasing), I feel that the conventional-wisdom-tale of fansubs killing anime is most likely wrong.
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Old 2007-09-29, 02:21   Link #40
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A reminder that thanks to the wording of the DMCA, anything "enabling" copyright infringement can be C&D'd.
The problem with that is that you'd have to C&D half of the Internet. Why the hell don't they C&D Google, for example? It enables anyone to bypass almost any kind of copyright (were it by linking to torrent files or directly to where the file is hosted).

DMCA is downright retrograde. This sort of shit happened in the past, with content providers going crazy about video and audio recorders. But what happened? The market adapted itself and found other ways of doing business. The same will happen this time around. It'll take a bit longer since the US government seems to have allied with the content providers (aka Big, Fat & Evil Corporations--most of times, it's not the authors of the work themselves the ones complaining), but I'm sure things will change in the future.

I suggest more and more people should download and watch Steal This Movie!, a documentary film done by the guys who built The Pirate Bay. While it only touches this topic tangentially, it has to do with the whole DMCA issue.
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