2020 US Presidential Election Discussion (primary & general)

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Seems Georgia have to recount by hand since, you know, Bully-in-chief and his Bois are butthurt.

It's a bit more complicated than that. Georgia was committed to conducting a "risk-limiting audit" of its results which includes reviewing a sample of the ballots. The size of the sample depends on the narrowness of the lead. Because the vote in Georgia is as close as it is, the required sample would have been nearly as large as the total votes cast, so the state decided to review them all.

[Guardian Enzo]

Recounts don’t overturn 14K vote margins. It’s just time-wasting at this point, but in most states anything below .5% is subject to a recount request at state expense so, whatever.

[Sheba]

Any MAGA planning to donate to the legal defense team should read, because you may end up paying off your God's debts first.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN27R309

[The Green One]

So looks like everyone is projecting Arizona for Biden now. I don't think anyone doubts that Trump has North Carolina. It's really just Georgia that's up in the air, though it doesn't seem likely that's getting overturned. Looks like it's really going to be 306 Electoral Votes for Biden. Unless Trump somehow manages mass Electoral revolt it's all over.

[Johnny Dy]

Originally Posted by The Green One

Looks like it's really going to be 306 Electoral Votes for Biden.

That's what you call irony.

[cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by The Green One

So looks like everyone is projecting Arizona for Biden now. I don't think anyone doubts that Trump has North Carolina. It's really just Georgia that's up in the air, though it doesn't seem likely that's getting overturned. Looks like it's really going to be 306 Electoral Votes for Biden. Unless Trump somehow manages mass Electoral revolt it's all over.

Georgia really isn’t up in the air. Even with a recount, the gap is too big to close.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by The Green One

So looks like everyone is projecting Arizona for Biden now.

Hey, MAGA, how about not being assholes and not call McCain a loser and not send Native Americans body bags instead of masks for COVID19?

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by cyberdemon

Georgia really isn’t up in the air. Even with a recount, the gap is too big to close.

Yup, no chance a recount impacts it. Fortunately the Republican SoS in GA seems like an honest politician. Even directed Fulton to add additional polling places for the election.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Fortunately the Republican SoS in GA seems like an honest politician.

His predecessor, now-Governor Brian Kemp, was anything but. The evidence is starting to mount that voter suppression just makes people want to cast ballots even more.

[mangamuscle]

In recent days Michael Cohen predicted Trump will not return from his december vacation to the White House. So, can Pence sign any budget and executive actions in his place or will they have to invoke the 25th amendment for the USA government to continue working on the first weeks of 2021?

[Jaden]

I guess voting by mail gets around all the traditional means of voter suppression and gerrymandering?

Then maybe, the results of this election are the real "floor" for democrats, and how Biden was able to win even though he kind of sucks. Well, hopefully he'll be a better president than campaigner.

Still, I haven't seen a good explanation for why democrats underperformed in local elections. One theory I've seen floated is that there were sizable groups of independents and republicans that swung for Biden in the battleground states that he won. You could deduce that from the results, but I don't know why they would swing that way.

[cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by Jaden

I guess voting by mail gets around all the traditional means of voter suppression and gerrymandering?

Then maybe, the results of this election are the real "floor" for democrats, and how Biden was able to win even though he kind of sucks. Well, hopefully he'll be a better president than campaigner.

Still, I haven't seen a good explanation for why democrats underperformed in local elections. One theory I've seen floated is that there were sizable groups of independents and republicans that swung for Biden in the battleground states that he won. You could deduce that from the results, but I don't know why they would swing that way.

Gerrymandering is the problem for democrats in local elections. Republicans drew the voting lines so districts would favor them and moved larger groups of democrat areas into smaller districts. It doesn’t affect presidential elections because it is based on states as a whole. It’s essentially how many unpopular politicians stay in power. Check out the Donald kicking goofy district in pa

[Sheba]

DeJoy must be feeling like Teru Mikami in the final episode of Death Note.

[Jaden]

Originally Posted by cyberdemon

Gerrymandering is the problem for democrats in local elections. Republicans drew the voting lines so districts would favor them and moved larger groups of democrat areas into smaller districts. It doesn’t affect presidential elections because it is based on states as a whole. It’s essentially how many unpopular politicians stay in power. Check out the Donald kicking goofy district in pa

Oh yeah, forgot about that. Those district maps do look pretty wonky. Is there some constitutional reason for every congressperson requiring their own "territory"?

[cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by Jaden

Oh yeah, forgot about that. Those district maps do look pretty wonky. Is there some constitutional reason for every congressperson requiring their own "territory"?

Constitutionality of gerrymandering is still up in the air sadly.it’s very likely that if district lines were fairly drawn that the election may have favored more democrats for the house and states. Those in power will never give it up though because it is what gets them re-elected. In 2018 I believe it was, there was a state where democrats were voted for 70% of the time, yet somehow only won 3 out of i believe 10 seats for that state. That’s how much gerrymandering affects state elections.

[Sheba]

The ghost of John McCain is laughing:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/13/polit...uit/index.html

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Jaden

Oh yeah, forgot about that. Those district maps do look pretty wonky. Is there some constitutional reason for every congressperson requiring their own "territory"?

States have the role of drawing district boundaries both for Congressional districts and state legislative districts. More wonky stuff than you probably want to know, but you could start here:

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...-in-the-house/

Images

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...redistricting/

North Carolina's district map was the subject of a recent case before the Supreme Court, Rucho v Common Cause. The Court ruled it could not get involved in partisan gerrymandering only racial gerrymandering (though in practice the two are often related).

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...yer-criterion/

[Jaden]

Thanks Seiji. Just one of those "costs of liberty", huh?

In Finland there's the opposite of gerrymandering, since there's no first-past-the-post elections for representatives.

Geographical boundaries of constituencies haven't changed for 50 years (only their number of representatives changes), even though provincial boundaries have been overhauled several times. Nobody cares, because local government is ran entirely by unelected bureaucrats anyway.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

In recent days Michael Cohen predicted Trump will not return from his december vacation to the White House.

Michael Cohen is as unreliable a narrator as there us. A hack lawyer trying to cash in on his profitable dalliance with a despot while keeping himself out of prison.

Also - what is it in Trump's history that makes anyone think "fade quietly into the background" is an option?

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Also - what is it in Trump's history that makes anyone think "fade quietly into the background" is an option?

It isn't much his style to ''fade quettly into the night'' but what about '' cutting his lost'' or '' leaving his mess to someone else to clean'' ? He have 6 bankrupsy behind him so it isn't his first failure. To leave the White House for not coming back in January would be more like a tantrum than a dignified or quiet exit.