Japanese Politics

[Autumn Demon]

The secretary to opposition leader Ozawa was recently arrested for taking illegal donations from a construction company. Hopefully this won't ruin the chances of the LDP being defeated at this year's election.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=13240678

The best thing that could come from this is Ozawa resigning and a more transparent leader taking his place. Does anybody know what Okada Katsuya's political views are like?

[Shadow Kira01]

Originally Posted by Autumn Demon

The secretary to opposition leader Ozawa was recently arrested for taking illegal donations from a construction company. Hopefully this won't ruin the chances of the LDP being defeated at this year's election.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=13240678

The best thing that could come from this is Ozawa resigning and a more transparent leader taking his place. Does anybody know what Okada Katsuya's political views are like?

I don't know much about Okada, except that the guy is seen as pro-China. Thus, I hope the next the leader of DPJ won't be him. And if he does become the next DPJ leader, I hope the DPJ loses. Although, I do agree that the economy will only get worse if Taro Aso stays on as prime minister but replacing him with some random politician is only going to make it worse.

I still don't know why Koizumi Junichiro had to announce a retirement. What a horrible timing! With him leading the Liberal Democratic Party, I am certain everything will go smoothly including the economy.

****
Update: Due to the dropping approval rate of the Democratic Party of Japan due to Ozawa Ichiro's questionable explanations, the chances of him stepping down before the upcoming House of Representatives election has become evident. Currently, there seems to be two candidates suitable of replacing him: Okada Katsuya and Maehara Seiji. In terms of policy, it is clear that Okada Katsuya has the every intention to be pro-China and revise history to match that of both China and Korea. On the other hand, Maehara Seiji is seen to be pro-American meaning that if he becomes the next party president of DPJ, he will definitely approve the dispatch of SDF over to Afghanistan, thus approving Japan-US bilateral relations. The Afghanistan mission is vital to the Obama Administration and improving Japan-US bilateral ties would also help maintain a mutual understanding and perspective towards the issue of North Korean nuclear threats along with the unsolved mysteries of the abductees. Thus, Maehara Seiji makes a better candidate to replace Ozawa Ichiro.

[Ryuou]

Yeah there are a lot of people who want Koizumi to come back.

[Lathdrinor]

Originally Posted by Shadow Minato

I don't know much about Okada, except that the guy is seen as pro-China. Thus, I hope the next the leader of DPJ won't be him. And if he does become the next DPJ leader, I hope the DPJ loses. Although, I do agree that the economy will only get worse if Taro Aso stays on as prime minister but replacing him with some random politician is only going to make it worse.

I still don't know why Koizumi Junichiro had to announce a retirement. What a horrible timing! With him leading the Liberal Democratic Party, I am certain everything will go smoothly including the economy.

And how is that a bad thing? You want a confrontational leader in the midst of the financial crisis? One would think that at this point in time everyone in the world should be cooperating, as opposed to steering up conflict.

[sa547]

Originally Posted by Ryuou

Yeah there are a lot of people who want Koizumi to come back.

Now that's odd: first they put him onto the seat, then don't like him, now they want him again.

Looks like the same way that people (including me) threw out a former president for corruption a few years ago, and now some quarters (mostly the gullible and allies) wants the same fat guy back into the presidential palace.

[Vexx]

You just have to give a lot of lousy choices... eventually the only-somewhat-lousy guy looks pretty good.

[FateAnomaly]

The lesser evil so to speak.

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by Ryuou

Yeah there are a lot of people who want Koizumi to come back.

As a Japanese, I always thought that Koizumi was good all along, he just had bad foreign relation skills.

[lixuelai]

Koizumi was smart. He played off the nationalistic sentiments at home to consolidate his base and push through the reforms needed. He obviously didn't make China and South Korea happy but Japan's problem at that time was more internal than external. So he did what he had to do to get the political capital needed.

And how is that a bad thing? You want a confrontational leader in the midst of the financial crisis? One would think that at this point in time everyone in the world should be cooperating, as opposed to steering up conflict.

QFT, though I do agree on the lack of experience. But then Japanese politicians in general are just so bad I think anything new would be a nice change.

[Vexx]

As long as the underlying bureaucracy and inner circles resists reform, change, or improvements from elected officials (and even steers the election towards ineffective leadership), its going to keep gradually sucking harder and harder. "Fitting in to the clique" is really corrosive in this arena.

[Ryuou]

Yeah it's why I hate politics and most politicians in general. It's like corruption goes hand in hand with politics. The problem with the corruption/innefectiveness/unreliability in the Japanese government, is that it's bad enough for the people to scoff at it, but not bad enough to spur much reform. Which probably ties into culture a bit.

As a Japanese, I always thought that Koizumi was good all along, he just had bad foreign relation skills.

Seconded. And his popularity still seems to remain fairly high.

[Vexx]

Koizumi has the advantage of:
1) Even if you disagreed with some of his policies, he was cool.
2) He gave good speeches, he was cool.
3) The women swooned over him, he was cool.
4) He balanced internal and external interests - maximizing the number of factions working together, because he was cool.

I hope that was obviously just being a bit silly - but there's a kernel of truth to it. The guy has a charisma factor both domestically and internationally (even if he pissed neighbors off over the annual shrine attendance problem).

[Ryuou]

charisma factor

That was a big part of it I think too.

[ZephyrLeanne]

Originally Posted by Ryuou

Yeah it's why I hate politics and most politicians in general. It's like corruption goes hand in hand with politics. The problem with the corruption/innefectiveness/unreliability in the Japanese government, is that it's bad enough for the people to scoff at it, but not bad enough to spur much reform. Which probably ties into culture a bit.


Seconded. And his popularity still seems to remain fairly high.

Very high.

In connection to the below:

Originally Posted by Vexx

Koizumi has the advantage of:
1) Even if you disagreed with some of his policies, he was cool.
2) He gave good speeches, he was cool.
3) The women swooned over him, he was cool.
4) He balanced internal and external interests - maximizing the number of factions working together, because he was cool.

I hope that was obviously just being a bit silly - but there's a kernel of truth to it. The guy has a charisma factor both domestically and internationally (even if he pissed neighbors off over the annual shrine attendance problem).

I like to joke that Japan had an Obama before US, it was Koizumi. His election machinery was the same as Obama's [at least quite similar], AND he still has the popularity of Obama during pre-election.

[Ryuou]

I was going to draw an Obama parallel too, but I don't know too many details on Koizumi so I figured I'd avoid such a statement.

[Autumn Demon]

Today Japan's main opposition party the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) picked Hatoyama Yukio as its new president. Hatoyama won the presidency in a vote among DPJ Diet members from both houses, defeating Okada Katsuya 124 to 95. Both Hatoyama and Okada are former DPJ presidents, Hatoyama serving from 1999-2002 and Okada from 2004-2005. The president of the party becomes prime minister if the party wins a majority of seats in the lower house of the Diet. Hatoyama is also the grandson of a former prime minister.

Hatoyama will succeed Ozawa Ichirou who resigned as president after the arrest of his secretary in a fund-raising scandal. Before Ozawa's scandal the DPJ held high opinion poll ratings and were predicted to win a majority of seats in the coming general election to the lower house of the Diet that must be held by October. As a result of the scandal the DPJ and reigning LDP are now neck and neck in opinion polls. If the DPJ wins only a plurality of seats in the coming election the LDP may be able to form a coalition government with its partner New Komeito and continue its nearly uninterrupted half-century rule over Japan.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-b...0090516x2.html

[Circular Logic]

I'd be highly surprised if Hatoyama was any different from Ozawa, especially pre-election.

[Shadow Kira01]

I totally forgotten about this thread.. Although I had already posted in the News Stories, I guess I will now clarify my stance now that things seem to have changed from the obvious to the unexpected.

Honestly, considering that Hatoyama had immediately resigned as soon as Ozawa stepped down the other day, who would have thought that he will suddenly become the new leader a few days after his resignation? Apparently, he resigned due to his strong loyalty to Ozawa and for that same reason, he will now be assigning Ozawa to a key position.

From the looks of it.. I don't see any changes to the current policies of the DPJ, it will most likely be an Ozawa puppet regime in which the shadow minister will be pulling strings behind the scenes, whereas if Okada was elected.. Things would be slightly different. The guy will try to balance his anti-corruption image while trying to please China without becoming corrupted which is an extremely difficult task. The good thing about Okada is that he is only 55 compared to his rivals and opposition who are 62 and 68 respectively. Also, Okada is against the unrealistic financial proposals by Ozawa and that he enjoys strong public popularity for two reasons, one is that he keeps a distance from Ozawa and seems to be non-corrupted. However, his foreign policies are very problematic and if he becomes the next foreign minister, there will certainly be various changes in terms of bilateral relations. Japan-US relations will mostly likely deteriorate at a faster speed, while relations with China will definitely put Japan in a very disadvantageous position. However, chances are that Okada will most likely aim for a higher position than foreign minister meaning that this will probably not occur.

Currently, Hatoyama is the leader and Ozawa will take the election campaign committee seat, while Okada and Kan will be chosen for the seats Secretary-General and Acting President. If Okada becomes the Secretary-General, internal conflicts within the DPJ will definitely not occur and the public approval of the DPJ will increase. However, if Kan takes the seat instead leaving Okada in the Acting President position, the opposite will most likely occur and it may prompt Hatoyama to step down again causing some significant mess..

How will the blue-blooded Hatoyama make the decision for his party realignment? And more importantly, how will Hatoyama organize his future cabinet if the DPJ successfully oust the LDP from power in the upcoming general election? The boring times has finally passed and an interesting era has returned..

[solomon]

I was wondering, what is this fabled all-powerful "beureacracy" made of? Buisness leaders? Old Money?

[yezhanquan]

Originally Posted by solomon

I was wondering, what is this fabled all-powerful "beureacracy" made of? Buisness leaders? Old Money?

Business leaders work hand-in-glove with them, as do Old Money. Basically, most of them are the brightest guys (and some ladies) from top Japanese universities which got themselves working for the government. Given the power structure of the country, I think "local warlords" is a description not that far off the mark. Tokyo can't micromanage everything; these guys can, and do. Japanese companies may be getting off the "life-time employment" train; these guys are still on it.