International Saimoe League 2013

[CrowKenobi]

ARENA 01: Tachibana Kanade [Hasegawa Kobato] Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Shiina Mashiro Aisaka Taiga Kuroyukihime Kōsaka Kirino
ARENA 02: Kinomoto Sakura Kyon no Imōto Neko [Fate Testarossa] Irisviel von Einzbern Hanekawa Tsubasa Sunohara Mei
ARENA 03: Takenaka Hanbee Nagase Iori Toshinō Kyōko Tomoe Mami [Katagiri Yūhi] Sonozaki Mion Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04: Kotegawa Yui Hirasawa Ui Nymph Aragaki Ayase Sanka Rea [Akemi Homura] Konoe Subaru
ARENA 05: [Makino Kanna] Yagami Tsurugi
ARENA 06: [Amy] Suzuhara Izumiko

[Sphire]

Originally Posted by wontaek

Let me rephrase what I posted earlier. Respect for the show or character don't get you much votes for ISML, but if you already have sufficient votes in ISML as well, it will help you keep the votes you got, no matter how you got those votes. Ami and Minori didn't have enough votes to keep them in league by 2011.


Also, in 2011, Taiga did beat Yuki and Azusa
Image noted

Similarly, you are conveniently forgetting that Taiga did this to earn her spot in phase II in 2012

Image noted

By the 2012 rules, written long time before 2012 regular season started, Yui-nyan had higher seed compared to Eucliwood since Yui-nyan lost to the winner of Nova while Eucliwood lost to the runner up. If you tell me that we manufactured Taiga's rise by predicting that Mio would 'upset' the higher seed and then do the following, I think you have too high of opinion of us

Image noted

I didn't get to reply earlier, so while waiting for results (I'll probably fall asleep first though), I might do so now.

The Toradora! name recognition I can understand. In the end Taiga gets a lot of neutral votes (aside from Kugyuu votes) because of Toradora! I am on board with that. But I do think its neutrals, not pure Toradora! fans. Because pure Toradora fans would have voted for the other Toradora characters (much like AB fans and SAO fans). Taiga is much like Eucliwood and Erio in that respect. But I guess in the end we are kinda agreeing here.

As for the ranking part, heh, I don't mean the tournament is manufactured specifically for Taiga or anything crazy like that. She just benefited from those early decisions you mentioned. Let's face it, Kuroneko beat Eucliwood in the 2012 circlet tourney, and gets rewarded by being forced into Kanade's path during the tiara tourney. Technically speaking, Kuroneko has every bit a right to claim for 2nd in the final ranking over Eucliwood, but history won't show that.

Part of that is just me being anal over how the tiara tourney wasn't handled like an official proper tourney (easiest example being a Tennis Grand Slam). Someone made mention that Kuroneko was placed in Kanade's half to avoid a repeat final in the tiara tourney (decided from before RS began, so I'm not implying some bias against Kuroneko, just that the initial call was bad in my opinion). With the Tennis GRand Slam example, imagine organisers placing Federer and Nadal to meet in the quarter-finals (and for arguments sake, we'll say they are ranked 1 and 2), simply to give more variety to the actual Grand Slam final match, instead of having the typical Federer vs Nadal repeat. That's horrible in my eyes, and that's how I see post-season 2 last year.

I also disagree with the fact that Yui was ranked higher than Eucliwood. Yui got to face Kanade exactly because she was weaker in RS, which suddenly becomes a positive thing. The obvious higher rank should've been Eucliwood, surely I can't be the only one who sees that. Even the final rankings reflect this (although I am arguing that the final ranking is moot....). So now, if this year is the same, it's much better to finish 4th in regular season than in 2nd or 3rd. Finishing 4th will provide for a better post-season 2 shot (granted, you still have to get there). Let me rephrase that, finishing 4th will provide for a better shot at winning the Tiara over finishing 2nd or 3rd. The RS ranking should have counted for more.

And I did forget those seeding results. You're right, those went Taiga's way. My only retort to that is that it was 'Seeding'. In 2011, Yuki and Azusa were finished. Taiga still had the draw of Shana. Shana beat Kanade, and those Shana fans had to vote for other characters too, isn't Taiga an obvious choice? And yes Mio beat Misaka in 2012, but again, the major draw there was Kanade vs Eucliwood. The big influx in voters had to vote for other characters too, and so everyone in the 'Seeding' matches were sloppy seconds. Is it so out there to think that some pure Misaka fans just gave up and decided to not vote? Seeding matches can't be held as high as double-elim. Now, I don't personally want double-elim since I like the '1 chance' notion, but I know that inherently screws with ranking.

And that's not even considering that Misaka was the defending tiara bearer.

The only thing you can garner accurately from the tiara tourney now is that the tiara winner deserves it. The final ranking is moot, so arguing Taiga getting better final rankings is moot. Taiga still being strong and not fading as much as others, that I'm not arguing against.

[Ichuki]

Wait since when was Hanbee stronger than Mami or Kyouko? I'm very glad with the necklace results.

[ion475]

For necklace...like anyone didn't expect Kanade winning. Kuroneko having her vote split into 3 (or even 4) (Kobato + Kirino...not to mention anyone that would have vote for Kuroneko that voted for Tenshi) doesn't help...

Mashiro do look strong, though.

For exhibition, Neko won as expected (I really don't know how she lose to Subaru...name recognition from last year maybe), Hanbee defeat expectation (But then, searching her...Loli voiced by Ogura Yui, no wonder LOL. Maybe I should watch that series just b/c of her). Ayase winning from that group of weaklings is no surprise (Current series ALWAYS help...).

The last two, well, Tamako being the more popular series (Although more like Sasami-san is just not that popular), while since both girls are fresh in memory, a closer battle between Suisei and RDG with Suisei getting the love b/c of Urobuchi...

[Chaos2Frozen]

Mashiro as Number Two was surprising for me

[Team Rocket Elite]

Kanade fans clearly have no intention of messing around this year. Congrats on winning the Aquamarine necklace Kanade! Good effort by Mashiro to take second from Taiga. The top end of Nova may end up being competitive with the non-Kanade top end of Stella after all. SDO kinda messes with the match, though.

Neko fans decided to show up again. It's a bit too late to make the regular season, though.

While this probably isn't that surprising, Yuuhi is now a lot weaker than she used to be. She deserved better than getting axed in Round 1 of the preliminaries, though. Hanbei does well to take the win here.

Homura might have had a chance against pre-boost Ayase, but post-boost Ayase is out of her league. Ayase takes the win without trouble as expected.

Good to see Kanna win her match decisively. I don't really know Amy or Izumiko that well so I have no idea if the other 1 vs 1 match is a good result or not.

[ion475]

Mashiro as Number Two was surprising for me

Kuroneko did suffer by having to split vote with Kobato (mainly...since they're basically one and the same except Kobato is also an imouto) and Kirino (For Oreimo fan). Mashiro is probably stronger than Kobato, and obviously stronger than Hime. Taiga would win against Mashiro by being more well known in general, while Kuroneko would destroy her in a 1-on-1...(Kirino? She's just there anyway...she'll never be on the top just b/c of the amount of undeserved hate she gets...)

[RegalStar]

Also, many Kuroneko and probably some Kobato fans as well voted Kanade just to get her out of the way (so they can fight properly when they're in more advantageous positions).

[Ichuki]

Originally Posted by ion475

Kuroneko did suffer by having to split vote with Kobato (mainly...since they're basically one and the same except Kobato is also an imouto) and Kirino (For Oreimo fan). Mashiro is probably stronger than Kobato, and obviously stronger than Hime. Taiga would win against Mashiro by being more well known in general, while Kuroneko would destroy her in a 1-on-1...(Kirino? She's just there anyway...she'll never be on the top just b/c of the amount of undeserved hate she gets...)

To be honest I think every contestants get "undeserved" hate (including CC and Eu even Tenshi) but I think people who does hate voting are a minority in this which is most likely the case.Since the tsunderes might be doing worse if hate voting wasn't the minority. So its just merely Kirino being weakest one in the match.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Sphire

I didn't get to reply earlier, so while waiting for results (I'll probably fall asleep first though), I might do so now.

The Toradora! name recognition I can understand. In the end Taiga gets a lot of neutral votes (aside from Kugyuu votes) because of Toradora! I am on board with that. But I do think its neutrals, not pure Toradora! fans. Because pure Toradora fans would have voted for the other Toradora characters (much like AB fans and SAO fans). Taiga is much like Eucliwood and Erio in that respect. But I guess in the end we are kinda agreeing here.

As for the ranking part, heh, I don't mean the tournament is manufactured specifically for Taiga or anything crazy like that. She just benefited from those early decisions you mentioned. Let's face it, Kuroneko beat Eucliwood in the 2012 circlet tourney, and gets rewarded by being forced into Kanade's path during the tiara tourney. Technically speaking, Kuroneko has every bit a right to claim for 2nd in the final ranking over Eucliwood, but history won't show that.

Part of that is just me being anal over how the tiara tourney wasn't handled like an official proper tourney (easiest example being a Tennis Grand Slam). Someone made mention that Kuroneko was placed in Kanade's half to avoid a repeat final in the tiara tourney (decided from before RS began, so I'm not implying some bias against Kuroneko, just that the initial call was bad in my opinion). With the Tennis GRand Slam example, imagine organisers placing Federer and Nadal to meet in the quarter-finals (and for arguments sake, we'll say they are ranked 1 and 2), simply to give more variety to the actual Grand Slam final match, instead of having the typical Federer vs Nadal repeat. That's horrible in my eyes, and that's how I see post-season 2 last year.

I also disagree with the fact that Yui was ranked higher than Eucliwood. Yui got to face Kanade exactly because she was weaker in RS, which suddenly becomes a positive thing. The obvious higher rank should've been Eucliwood, surely I can't be the only one who sees that. Even the final rankings reflect this (although I am arguing that the final ranking is moot....). So now, if this year is the same, it's much better to finish 4th in regular season than in 2nd or 3rd. Finishing 4th will provide for a better post-season 2 shot (granted, you still have to get there). Let me rephrase that, finishing 4th will provide for a better shot at winning the Tiara over finishing 2nd or 3rd. The RS ranking should have counted for more.

And I did forget those seeding results. You're right, those went Taiga's way. My only retort to that is that it was 'Seeding'. In 2011, Yuki and Azusa were finished. Taiga still had the draw of Shana. Shana beat Kanade, and those Shana fans had to vote for other characters too, isn't Taiga an obvious choice? And yes Mio beat Misaka in 2012, but again, the major draw there was Kanade vs Eucliwood. The big influx in voters had to vote for other characters too, and so everyone in the 'Seeding' matches were sloppy seconds. Is it so out there to think that some pure Misaka fans just gave up and decided to not vote? Seeding matches can't be held as high as double-elim. Now, I don't personally want double-elim since I like the '1 chance' notion, but I know that inherently screws with ranking.

And that's not even considering that Misaka was the defending tiara bearer.

The only thing you can garner accurately from the tiara tourney now is that the tiara winner deserves it. The final ranking is moot, so arguing Taiga getting better final rankings is moot. Taiga still being strong and not fading as much as others, that I'm not arguing against.

There is the following change this year due to what happened last year.

3. The first round will feature the following matchups based on Contestant ranking at the end of Phase I: 1N vs. 8S, 5N vs. 4S, 2S vs. 7N, 3N vs. 6S, 6N vs. 3S, 2N vs. 7S, 4N vs. 5S, 8N vs. 1S.

If higher seed wins throughout, this would mean that in quarterfinals, Nova 1 will meet Stella 2 instead of Nova 2 like last year. The problem with last year was that except for Kanade, we overestimated the Stella league girls and seriously underestimated Kuroneko and Eucliwood.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

To be honest I think every contestants get "undeserved" hate (including CC and Eu even Tenshi) but I think people who does hate voting are a minority in this (hopefully). So its just merely Kirino being weakest one in the match.

According to my analysis, most of the time, very few voters do hate vote, despite attempts to organize hate voting by many faction leaders. The time of exception usually is a match day with many matches too close to call.

[Kotohono]

Awful results all around today, bleh. All the more reason to hate vote vs Kanade for the rest of ISML forever.

Ayase getting the extra was only remotely redeeming thing to it.

[HasuMasu]

Kuroyukihime looks alright, Shiina probably stronger though.

[ion475]

To be honest I think every contestants get "undeserved" hate (including CC and Eu even Tenshi) but I think people who does hate voting are a minority in this which is most likely the case.Since the tsunderes might be doing worse if hate voting wasn't the minority. So its just merely Kirino being weakest one in the match.

I'm 100% sure that I'm the only one that hate Eu here

As far as Kirino...I'm referring more to the fact that she'll never be one of the "top guns" just b/c she's just not all that likable (or getting hated) with her personality. She did well last year but IMO it's more like Nova drops off quickly after where she finish anyway (tied with Niku and Kobato).

[Ithekro]

Originally Posted by Konakaga

Awful results all around today, bleh. All the more reason to hate vote vs Kanade for the rest of ISML forever.

Ayase getting the extra was only remotely redeeming thing to it.

Unless they changed something, Kanade can't get another necklace this year now.

[CptChaos]

I'm pretty sure by now Kanade will defend the tiara. I'm fine with that, but she totally seems to be in a league of her own.

[broken270]

I think the tier list for this year has already been written out, but can someone remind be again what it is? I have it as:

Spoiler for Stella:

Tier 1: Nakano Azusa, Aisaka Taiga, Gokou Ruri, Tachibana Kanade, Eucliwood Hellscythe
Wildcard: Yui-nyan
Tier 2: Kousaka Kirino, Akiyama Mio, Nakamura Yuri, Misaka Mikoto, Shana
Tier 3: Nagato Yuki, Katsura Hinagiku, Sakagami Tomoyo, Kuroi Mato, Senjōgahara Hitagi
Tier 4: Iwasawa Masami, Victorique de Blois, Charlotte Dunois, Tōsaka Rin, Louise Vallière
Tier 5: Furukawa Nagisa, Fujibayashi Kyō, Illyasviel von Einzbern, C.C., Last Order
Tier 6: Hirasawa Yui, Saber, Konjiki no Yami, Sengoku Nadeko, Suzumiya Haruhi
Tier 7: Nymph, Izumi Konata, Aragaki Ayase, Hirasawa Ui, Holo

Spoiler for Nova:

Tier 1: Hasegawa Kobato, Shiina Mashiro, Kuroyukihime, Yuuki Asuna, Takanashi Rikka
Wildcard: Yui
Tier 2: Chitanda Eru, Kirigaya Suguha, Mikazuki Yozora, Kashiwazaki Sena, Yuzuriha Inori
Tier 3: Natsume Rin, Yūki Mikan, Tōwa Erio, Oshino Shinobu, Makise Kurisu
Tier 4: Nyarlathotep, Araragi Karen, Misaki Mei, Shirakiin Ririchiyo, Momo Belia Deviluke
Tier 5: Araragi Tsukihi, Kirishima Shōko, Kanzaki H. Aria, Honma Meiko, Roromiya Karuta
Tier 6: Ayano Keiko, Nōmi Kudryavka, Aoyama Nanami, Nibutani Shinka, Takanashi Tōka
Tier 7: Kurasaki Fūko, Konoe Subaru, Kotegawa Yui, Akemi Homura, Sanka Rea

I still think PS should have a DE bracket instead of a SE bracket (for the Tiara at least), but I am probably in the minority here.

[Team Rocket Elite]

For those interested, here are my character rankings from before Aquamarine 1 and after Aquamarine 7:

Before Aquamarine 1:

Spoiler for Character Ranking before Aquamarine 1:

Tachibana Kanade - 72.89
Eucliwood Hellscythe - 63.53
Aisaka Taiga - 60
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) - 58.22
Nakano Azusa - 57.98
Misaka Mikoto - 57.1
Akiyama Mio - 54.77
Yui-nyan - 53.65
Shana - 53.53
Nakamura Yuri - 52.41
Kōsaka Kirino - 51.11
Nagato Yuki - 49.86
Suzumiya Haruhi - 49.57
Saber - 48.51
Konjiki no Yami - 48.02
Hirasawa Yui - 47.91
Sengoku Nadeko - 46.66
Katsura Hinagiku - 44.32
Illyasviel von Einzbern - 43.13
Tōsaka Rin - 42.8
Senjōgahara Hitagi - 42.59
Charlotte Dunois - 42.45
Kuroi Mato - 42.35
Sakagami Tomoyo - 42.11
Louise Vallière - 41.58
Victorique de Blois - 41.34
Last Order - 41.22
Fujibayashi Kyō - 41.09
C.C. - 40.79
Iwasawa Masami - 40.66
Furukawa Nagisa - 40.29
Nymph - 39.62
Aragaki Ayase - 39.42
Izumi Konata - 39.11
Hirasawa Ui - 37.86
Holo - 36.55

Yūki Asuna - 57.7
Takanashi Rikka - 54.78
Hasegawa Kobato - 52.18
Shiina Mashiro - 51.95
Kuroyukihime - 51.42
Yui - 50.7
Kashiwazaki Sena - 47.65
Yuzuriha Inori - 47.17
Chitanda Eru - 45.02
Aoyama Nanami - 45
Mikazuki Yozora - 43.03
Ayano Keiko (Silica) - 42.82
Kirigaya Suguha - 42.53
Nibutani Shinka - 42.5
Yūki Mikan - 42.37
Oshino Shinobu - 41.94
Takanashi Tōka - 41.4
Natsume Rin - 40.44
Momo Belia Deviluke - 40
Nōmi Kudryavka - 39.83
Nyarlathotep - 39.61
Makise Kurisu - 39.15
Misaki Mei - 38.81
Shirakiin Ririchiyo - 37.96
Araragi Karen - 37.75
Tōwa Erio - 37
Roromiya Karuta - 36.49
Kirishima Shōko - 36.37
Araragi Tsukihi - 36.19
Kurasaki Fūko (Sky Raker) - 35.96
Honma Meiko - 35.73
Kanzaki H. Aria - 35.71
Akemi Homura - 34.72
Kotegawa Yui - 34.51
Konoe Subaru - 34.48
Sanka Rea - 34.45

After Aquamarine 7:

Spoiler for Character Ranking after Aquamarine 7:

Tachibana Kanade - 72.33
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) - 65.32
Misaka Mikoto - 61.67
Aisaka Taiga - 61.36
Eucliwood Hellscythe - 58.75
Nakano Azusa - 55.24
Shana - 54.88
Akiyama Mio - 53.36
Kōsaka Kirino - 52.02
Suzumiya Haruhi - 51.8
Yui-nyan - 51.14
Nakamura Yuri - 50.64
Nagato Yuki - 50.22
Aragaki Ayase - 48.99
Hirasawa Yui - 48.98
Saber - 48.18
Konjiki no Yami - 47.32
Last Order - 44.51
Senjōgahara Hitagi - 44.48
Katsura Hinagiku - 44.45
Sengoku Nadeko - 43.48
Victorique de Blois - 43.3
Louise Vallière - 42.78
Sakagami Tomoyo - 42.34
Kuroi Mato - 41.58
Charlotte Dunois - 41.53
Furukawa Nagisa - 41.36
Tōsaka Rin - 41.21
Nymph - 41.15
Fujibayashi Kyō - 40.92
Illyasviel von Einzbern - 39.5
Iwasawa Masami - 39.28
C.C. - 38.61
Izumi Konata - 37.56
Holo - 36.74
Hirasawa Ui - 35.53

Kuroyukihime - 56.64
Shiina Mashiro - 56.07
Takanashi Rikka - 54.7
Hasegawa Kobato - 54.24
Yūki Asuna - 54.09
Kashiwazaki Sena - 48.68
Chitanda Eru - 46.36
Aoyama Nanami - 46.2
Yuzuriha Inori - 44.41
Yui - 44.19
Nyarlathotep - 43.99
Nibutani Shinka - 42.85
Makise Kurisu - 41.11
Ayano Keiko (Silica) - 40.48
Natsume Rin - 40.28
Kirigaya Suguha - 40.19
Takanashi Tōka - 40.04
Oshino Shinobu - 40.02
Mikazuki Yozora - 39.96
Momo Belia Deviluke - 39.5
Kanzaki H. Aria - 39.29
Shirakiin Ririchiyo - 38.99
Tōwa Erio - 38.79
Nōmi Kudryavka - 38.27
Roromiya Karuta - 37.95
Yūki Mikan - 37.39
Honma Meiko - 37.33
Kirishima Shōko - 36.99
Sanka Rea - 36.75
Misaki Mei - 36.57
Kurasaki Fūko (Sky Raker) - 36.3
Araragi Karen - 36.05
Kotegawa Yui - 35.97
Konoe Subaru - 35.9
Akemi Homura - 35.39
Araragi Tsukihi - 34.54

While my stats from before Aquamarine reflect my expectations for everyone, the stats from after Aquamarine 7 reflect the reality of the situation.

The character that did best relative to what I thought she would do was Aragaki Ayase. I had no idea the new season of OreImo would help her as much as it did. The new season only just got started so there's stil time for Ayase to climb even higher from here. Kuroneko also seems to be a fair bit stronger now. While Kirino had a strong start, she didn't seem quite as good at the end of Aquamarine so her ranking didn't go up by too much.

Following to trend of strength boosts from a new season, Nyarlathotep, Misaka and Last Order also show improvements in strength.

Mashiro and Kuroyukihime both turn out be stronger than I thought they would. I didn't really think they would be competitive with Rikka and Asuna and now it turns out they are probably stronger.

SAO has been the big disappointment for me. Yui turns out to be much weaker than I thought she would be. Asuna isn't even the favourite to win Nova let alone the strong favourite I initially pegged her as being. Silica and Suguha are both just weaker than I thought they would be. However, I guess I can't complain too much since Suguha and Silica are still strong enough to qualify for the playoffs. However, I'm not sure if this will still be true a few months from now.

Eucliwood had a strong start where she took out Mikoto but hasn't looked as good latetly. She did lose to Taiga recently but I don't think that matters that much. Taiga is pretty strong herself.

Mikan had strong performances in preliminaries but isn't quite able to keep them up in the regular season. She might have had a shot at qualifying for the playoffs if she was able to.

Illyasviel beat Hitagi to qualify for the Regular season. She looked decent in her loss to Victorique but has really fallen off since then. She had a good match with Holo. Hopefully it's a sign of a turnaround back to her former level of strength.

No one from Nova seems strong enough to challenge Kanade. Since Mikoto would also be a repeat champion, it seems to be up to Kuroneko to produce a new winner. She still has a long way to go to catch Kanade, though.

[DorkingtonPugsly]

Not surprised, but not happy about her 2 years in a row win... Oh well

[Sphire]

Hmm, day 1's will always be interesting now that Misaka isn't level 1. She's going to face a top character every time (I think). I'll call it now, necklace winner to be decided by Kuroneko vs Misaka. Great timing too.

It will be interesting to see how Hina fares against Haruhi after her episode of Hayate, although I'm pretty sure many neutrals aren't watching it. Shana vs Azusa could be interesting, depending on how many voters turn up. The rest seem rather straight forward.

And while I do think the necklace winner will be between Misaka and Kuroneko, I'd love to see Kuroyukihime get in. I'm still not sold on how strong she is though. Will just have to wait and see.

Side note: I always love seeing Suigintou's Amethyst necklace picture. Possible my favourite pic of them all.