So, it seems Horo did calmed down and regained her mind. Getting info on Amati assets, making a marriage contract, she sure is busy.
That contract really looks like an ultimatum to Lawrence. And a test for him. Cause if he loose "ownership" of Horo, she would legally be married to Amati.
That was an exciting episode. There's a trope, I can't remember the name of it at the moment, that says that a plan discussed on camera ahead of time will fail. Thus, I think Lawrence's plan for Amarty is somehow doomed. What twist comes along, and how he will deal with it, has yet to be seen.
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You may say that pi is irrational. However, let me point out that 355/113 is close enough to pi for most purposes. And if that is not good enough for you, then who's being irrational?
Well well well Lawrence shows hes actually got a pair, that look he gave was complete bad ass. I agree with how hes trying to one up Amati. If your going to do it then completely destroy your opponent i say go for broke. But Lawrence also learned a valuable lesson i think we all forget that Lawrence is a traveling merchant once his business is done he leaves. But shop and store owners have to worry about their reputations and their standing within the community thats something that Lawrence does not have any experience with.
It seems Horo still has some tricks to play. When i saw that she had left Amanti's assets i was like whoa thats Horo for you. However then i saw the next document the marriage contract with Horo's name on it and i became very confused. I was little disappointed we didnt get to hear any of Horo's gorgeous voice this week. I also wondered where she exactly disappeared too. The situation does not seem to be as advantageous to Lawrence as i previously thought plus we dont even know if Horo's homeland was actually destroyed. Lawrence is taking a big risk on the pyrite and on Horo but him trusting Horo will tear up the marriage contract shows how much faith he has in Horo. I finally believe that Lawrence now knows how much Horo means to him.
the suspense is killing me its going to be a long week with my mind going wild with speculations.
question?
I love the OP song i think its beautiful. At one point during the OP we see Horo walking the land. First we see a small town that seems to grow into a village then into a full blown castle. My question is does that scene represent Horo's travels ?or does it represent her immortality and is showing how time passes?
Id rather go to the 9th layer of hell before i ever say Holo
question?
I love the OP song i think its beautiful. At one point during the OP we see Horo walking the land. First we see a small town that seems to grow into a village then into a full blown castle. My question is does that scene represent Horo's travels ?or does it represent her immortality and is showing how time passes?
I interpret that scene as representating her immortality.
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Well well well Lawrence shows hes actually got a pair, that look he gave was complete bad ass.
Eh. In the end, a look's only a look. What's bad ass is that, so soon after that mess with the armors, he's willing to put it all on the line again, to keep Horo with him. Not to mention he's betting on his ability to accomplish the impossible with not even a firm idea on the "how".
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I agree with how hes trying to one up Amati. If your going to do it then completely destroy your opponent i say go for broke.
I think you're misreading the situation a bit. The reason Lawrence went to Amati isn't to ruin him, but to get capital with which to act. And to tie up Amati's own capital so he won't have as much freedom. For Amati, that deal is a mistake: that's why Lawrence provoked him. In the end, all Amati'll really lose out of it is 500 silver trennies. Significant, but it won't bury him. Lawrence hopes that it, in addition to the market crash, will be enough to bring Amati's assets below the 1000 limit.
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But Lawrence also learned a valuable lesson i think we all forget that Lawrence is a traveling merchant once his business is done he leaves. But shop and store owners have to worry about their reputations and their standing within the community thats something that Lawrence does not have any experience with.
Yeah... Traveling merchants also have to worry about their names, but to a much lesser extent. Plus, they're expected to jump at every opportunity to make money. They have no store to mind.
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It seems Horo still has some tricks to play. When i saw that she had left Amanti's assets i was like whoa thats Horo for you. However then i saw the next document the marriage contract with Horo's name on it and i became very confused.
"Try harder, idiot."? Or maybe "The info on the assets is one last chance for you... but you'd better succeed, or else."
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I was little disappointed we didnt get to hear any of Horo's gorgeous voice this week. I also wondered where she exactly disappeared too. The situation does not seem to be as advantageous to Lawrence as i previously thought plus we dont even know if Horo's homeland was actually destroyed. Lawrence is taking a big risk on the pyrite and on Horo but him trusting Horo will tear up the marriage contract shows how much faith he has in Horo. I finally believe that Lawrence now knows how much Horo means to him.
Heh. He just said that to provoke Amati. If he trusted Horo to tear up the contract, he'd let Amati give him the money, and try to make as much of his own as he could off the bubble, instead of bursting it prematurely. He's frantic precisely because he fears Horo will stay with Amati if he can't keep Amati from getting the 1000 trennies.
wanted to summarize the transactions this episode for those people who got confused by it, took me 3-4 watches of their discussions to figure out what they did
ok so initially with amarti owes 1000 silver to lawrence for 'buying' horo. therefore he has to raise funds.
lawrence's current contracts
+500 -received now with the promise to pay back amarti with 500 worth of pyrite the next day
-500 -uses the 500 he received to buy the pyrite he will eventually have to pay back to amarti the next day. he tried to get mark to do it for him using his connections but he refused to stake his reputation, so now lawrence has to do it him self with alchemists. purchase has to be made discreetly as to not destabilize the market with a massive 1 time purchase of 500 worth of pyrite
+500 - 500 = 0, today lawrence's net position is 0 and has 500 worth of pyrite in his pocket
therefore next day:
1) lawrence fails and prices go up -he will have to give back 500 worth of pyrite even though he could have sold it for lets say 1000 if he were not in the contract. therefore lawrence gets nothing and amarti gains 500 and horo
2) the rumor succeeds and pyrite prices plummet. -lawrence gives the 500 pyrite to amarti now worth 0 let's say. lawrence's net position is still 0, and from amarti's perspective he gave away 500 silver the night before for nothing
the clincher is that amarti still owes lawrence the 1000 silver for horo though he is now short 500 from his original position
based on the letter horo left for lawrence, it said that amarti had 700 silver in assets. so if market prices for pyrite goes up, it'll (should) push him over 1000 mark easily without him doing anything, however, if prices go to 0, he's now at 700-500=200 way below what he actually needs
i'm 70% sure this is what's going on though i could be mistaken because lawrence doesnt make actual 'profits' as he is reducing someone else's
in any case after watching the middle part again where lawrence gets the message from horo, i can say that she effectively 'raised the stakes' for all parties. so lawrence now knows more about amarti's position allowing him to take advantage of it, but at the same time he will lose the ability to ever be with horo again b/c she will be locked into marriage (compared to before where she was just freed?)
wanted to summarize the transactions this episode for those people who got confused by it, took me 3-4 watches of their discussions to figure out what they did
ok so initially with amarti owes 1000 silver to lawrence for 'buying' horo. therefore he has to raise funds.
lawrence's current contracts
+500 -received now with the promise to pay back amarti with 500 worth of pyrite the next day
-500 -uses the 500 he received to buy the pyrite he will eventually have to pay back to amarti the next day. he tried to get mark to do it for him using his connections but he refused to stake his reputation, so now lawrence has to do it him self with alchemists. purchase has to be made discreetly as to not destabilize the market with a massive 1 time purchase of 500 worth of pyrite
+500 - 500 = 0, today lawrence's net position is 0 and has 500 worth of pyrite in his pocket
therefore next day:
1) lawrence fails and prices go up -he will have to give back 500 worth of pyrite even though he could have sold it for lets say 1000 if he were not in the contract. therefore lawrence gets nothing and amarti gains 500 and horo
2) the rumor succeeds and pyrite prices plummet. -lawrence gives the 500 pyrite to amarti now worth 0 let's say. lawrence's net position is still 0, and from amarti's perspective he gave away 500 silver the night before for nothing
the clincher is that amarti still owes lawrence the 1000 silver for horo though he is now short 500 from his original position
based on the letter horo left for lawrence, it said that amarti had 700 silver in assets. so if market prices for pyrite goes up, it'll (should) push him over 1000 mark easily without him doing anything, however, if prices go to 0, he's now at 700-500=200 way below what he actually needs
i'm 70% sure this is what's going on though i could be mistaken because lawrence doesnt make actual 'profits' as he is reducing someone else's
in any case after watching the middle part again where lawrence gets the message from horo, i can say that she effectively 'raised the stakes' for all parties. so lawrence now knows more about amarti's position allowing him to take advantage of it, but at the same time he will lose the ability to ever be with horo again b/c she will be locked into marriage (compared to before where she was just freed?)
I think I'm going to elaborate a little further on what you're saying.
Lawrence is essence doing a modified version of shorting with Amarti being the lender. Lawrence doesn't directly borrow 500 silver worth of pyrite, but he might as well have, since if he had done so and immediately sold it at the current price, the situation would have been the same. However, they had to do it this way because: a) Amarti doesn't have 500 silver of pyrite, but he does have 500 silver b)If Amarti gave Lawrence that much pyrite, he will have already lost, for reasons explained below. The way it is now, Lawrence has to buy up the pyrite himself if he wants to influence the market (thus forcing prices up, in Amarti's favor) which is why he was trying to do it as subtly as possible. Of course, Mark's advice is even better. By buying from the alchemists, he avoids influencing the market at all, since they ordinarily wouldn't buy or sell. He's exploiting his access through Diana. I suspect he might only be able to convince Diana by telling her everything he knows about Horo.
The contract favors Lawrence because:
Ultimately, pyrite is worthless. In the long run it's value will drop to zero.
The contract favors Amarti because:
Right now, the market pressure is for the pyrite's value to go up. The timeframe is short (one day).
Amarti has given his liquidity, which has the power to drive prices up, to Lawrence, to whom it is worthless directly (hence why he has to find shady ways of using it). Amarti has held on to his pyrite, which he could sell to drive prices downward, and therefore it would be useful...only to Lawrence. (Unless he could find a shady way of selling it and then using the cash to drive prices up. The irony that would occur if he ends up selling to alchemists who then sell it to Lawrence...).
However, the power to sell pyrite is more powerful than the ability to buy it, since if Amarti had just given Lawrence that much pyrite, Amarti would basically end up trying to buy it off Lawrence, who would obviously refuse. So it's helpful that Lawrence has been given gold, not pyrite. (Of course Lawrence's genius is that he got the pyrite anyway...probably).
I don't want to make Horo out to be a commodity, but that does make things easier to visualize. I've tried to think up every possible ridiculous scenario:
*takes deep breath
Spoiler for seriously, this is long:
Lawrence:
Assets:
Whatever gold he started with (it was gold). He will spend it on pyrite and then sell it before the second day to try and force prices down.
500 silver
Horo
1000 silver from Amarti, if Amarti has it on the second day
Liabilities:
500 silver/price of pyrite on the first day to Amarti
Horo, if Amarti has 1000 silver on the second day
Amarti:
Assets:
Whatever he has left over after raising 500 silver (he doesn't just have 500 silver on hand, remember.)~200 silver in value. This is possibiy in pyrite.
500 silver/price of pyrite on the first day from lawrence
Horo, if Amarti has 1000 silver on the second day
Liabilities:
1000 silver to Lawrence, if Amarti has it on the second day
Scenarios, assuming Amarti does nothing himself but try to raise 1000 silver:
Prices drop before the second day, Amarti does not have 1000 silver (likely)
Lawrence walks off with Horo+~500 silver (500 silver/alchemist cost*below market price sale)+~what he had to start with.
Amarti has ~200 silver
Prices drop before the second day, Amarti has 1000 silver anyway (unlikely, but possible if he had 200 silver entirely in pyrite and was able to sell it all early).
Lawrence leaves with 1000 silver+~500 silver
Amarti gets Horo+<200 silver (probably broke but not bankrupt)
Prices rise, and Amarti is able to sell it all in time
Lawrence has <whatever he had to start with. Probably a lot less.+1000 silver. At least he's not bankrupt.
Amarti gets Horo+>200 silver+>500 silver. He is a rich man, in every way.
Prices rise, but crash immediately after lawrence pays Amarti. Amarti has not sold enough beforehand to raise 1000 silver.
Lawrence has Horo+<whatever he had to start with. Probably bankrupt and in debt.
Amarti gets <1000 silver. (Probably broke but not bankrupt, but he could be fine. He could be 1 silver short.)
Prices rise, but crash immediately after Lawrence pays Amarti. Amarti has already sold enough to raise 1000 silver.
Lawrence has <whatever he had to start with. Probably a lot less+1000 silver. At least he's not bankrupt.
Amarti gets Horo+(probably not much)
Personally, I think Lawrence has f'd up way too many times in a row for him to mess up again. I think he actually wins and the market collapses. When he triumphantly shows up to give Amarti his worthless shinies, Amarti pulls 1000 silver from a back pocket (to quote another poster: "his ass"), since he found a way to somehow convert 200 silver of assets into 1000 (possibly by selling the pyrite early enough. Bubbles grow fastest just before they break.) Lawrence is heartbroken but then Horo shows up and tears the marriage contract in half because she wasn't really expecting this to happen. In return, she gets Lawrence to absolve her fake 1000 debt so Amarti doesn't have to pay for her freedom.
though the one thing that bothers me about the whole idea is how lawrence is betting everything on the market collapse. if we look at today's markets it seems impossible like that to happen based on market efficiency (for those who know what im talking about, arbitrage etc)
so the only conclusion i can come to is that the pyrite market is effectively a massive bubble (think US housing bubble). so i can't believe that the other regular merchants/store owners of the city arn't able to foresee the future fall of the pryrite market even though their main commodity is wheat and everyone already knows it's going to rise, so you shouldn't need a rumor in the first place. it's not like the pyrite would keep increasing in price indefinitely
Of course it's a bubble. And of course everyone knows it'll collapse pretty soon. The trick is to know when. The ones still holding pyrite after that will be the losers. The ones to sell just before the winners.
though the one thing that bothers me about the whole idea is how lawrence is betting everything on the market collapse. if we look at today's markets it seems impossible like that to happen based on market efficiency (for those who know what im talking about, arbitrage etc)
so the only conclusion i can come to is that the pyrite market is effectively a massive bubble (think US housing bubble). so i can't believe that the other regular merchants/store owners of the city arn't able to foresee the future fall of the pryrite market even though their main commodity is wheat and everyone already knows it's going to rise, so you shouldn't need a rumor in the first place. it's not like the pyrite would keep increasing in price indefinitely
Well, even the best stock broker can end up taking risks based on a friends word of mouth. I think the series (season 1) even talked about how unknown the market can be sometimes. Even though they know it wont last forever, everyone still wants a piece of the action. Hince why pryrite is still being bought.
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