[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[rogerpepitone]

The last person alive other than Battler was almost certainly Maria.

Also, Rosa never entered Kinzo's room in the first place. How could she? Genji had one key; the other was (probably) still on Kinzo's corpse; the autolock is inside. She went somewhere else instead (killing Jessica? OTOH, there's a gratuitous golden butterfly when she's about to go upstairs, so maybe she went somewhere on the ground floor), and made up the story about talking to Kinzo as an alibi. She then attempted to discourage anybody from talking to Kinzo to check her story. ("He's safe in his room.")

Also, I think Kinzo's probably been in the boiler room all this time, buried in the coal bin or somesuch.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

The last person alive other than Battler was almost certainly Maria.

So then who killed "Beatrice?" If they were mortally wounded before that point, how did they end up with a half-smashed head? The only people who aren't killed that way are Kyrie (staked in the head, seems hard to do to yourself), Gohda/Kumasawa (again, rather hard to swallow), and George, who was the first person Battler confirmed dead (or "dead" anyway), before he even met with Beatrice. And possibly Kanon, but we know Kanon cannot have been the last alive or second-last after Maria.

[Alaya]

Of Kanon died long before in the 4th game begin... In this way, it would not contradict that Kanon died the first among Kyrie group. With this, we have room for 17th X person.

We only have guarantee that Kinzo is dead before everygame, but that doesn't mean another person did not die before the game start.

[Marion]

I don't like the 'Kanon is dead all along' theory honestly :/ Do you think that Ryukushi would use the same shtick twice? Not to mention it contradicts many things - Kanon does appear in front of a lot of people, in non-fantasy induced scenes.

[Matrim]

Maybe they are all dead from the start but don't realise it, that's why the culprits can pass through locked doors - being ghosts and all. The game ends when everyone realises they are dead.

[Alaya]

Originally Posted by Marion

I don't like the 'Kanon is dead all along' theory honestly :/ Do you think that Ryukushi would use the same shtick twice? Not to mention it contradicts many things - Kanon does appear in front of a lot of people, in non-fantasy induced scenes.

I think it's more like "Kanon randomly died before the game start", but it might not be true. Well, I like making speculations so sometimes they might sound strange

We still cannot find the Rule X, Y, Z except "people will be killed according to the epitaph". So we might not have a rule that state everyone's life status before every game (except Kinzo).

[Marion]

I think Kinzo being dead at the start is a rule. That's just me.

[Alaya]

Originally Posted by Marion

I think Kinzo being dead at the start is a rule. That's just me.

Well, then we have two rules. But how many undiscovered rules are there? I guess we can only keep guessing until the game is complete.

[Freelii]

Actually, in Episode 3, stuff started to deviate from the epitaph... the 1st twilight has been followed every time, but the other twilights don't seem to be as strongly set in stone.

[rogerpepitone]

Probably, Maria was "Beatrice". Or at the very least, she cleaned up the next-to-last victim's death before killing herself.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Alaya

Well, then we have two rules. But how many undiscovered rules are there? I guess we can only keep guessing until the game is complete.

I think that there are many rules, but three main rules - rules that are always standard for the game. Since Kinzo is always dead 'Kinzo is dead before October 4th 1986' is probably a rule of the game. Battler going missing on the 10th twilight might also be a possible rule. I remember that Ryukushi mentioned in an interview that in EP 3 a rule was broken, thus allowing Eva to survive. Battler that time also died at the 9th twilight, instead of going missing on the 10th.

'Battler is the last to die' might be a rule. In every game he always seems to be the last one to survive. Because of Eva in EP 3 he died, because she was still alive at that point.

[Alaya]

The rule that was broken in EP3 might be "no one is able to solve the epitaph", assuming Eva can really solve the epitaph. That's the only difference we can see now (I guess).

I'm tempted to purpose the rule that "anyone who can solve the epitaph would survive" but we only have one example of that (EP3) so it would be too rush to assume this.

[Hareoic]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Probably, Maria was "Beatrice". Or at the very least, she cleaned up the next-to-last victim's death before killing herself.

Did Battler actually confirm Maria's death? It looked like he just looked at her and saw that she was "foaming" and said she was poisoned.

[maximilianjenus]

No, but beatrice did.

[Hareoic]

You mean the bit at the very end of the first tea party, or before then?

[maximilianjenus]

When she says soemething akin to everybody is dead but you

[Renall]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Probably, Maria was "Beatrice". Or at the very least, she cleaned up the next-to-last victim's death before killing herself.

I find it exceedingly implausible that Battler would fail to discern that the "Beatrice" talking to him was nine years old. Maria isn't "Beatrice."

[Christen]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

When she says soemething akin to everybody is dead but you

She only said you are alone on this island. It might be the same thing, but semantics is both your friend and enemy in here.

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by Renall

I'd love to hear a reasonable explanation for 4. And not a vague one either. Who died when? Who was "Beatrice?" Who was the last person alive other than Battler? It's harder than it sounds, actually.

Okay, I'll take up that challenge. But it's gonna be huge. And I'm not gonna talk about motives... Those arguments never get anyplace.

Spoiler for A massive wall of text of DOOM:

By my theory, the first victims were Natsuhi, Rudolph, Hideyoshi, Eva, Genji and Rosa. As was said during the scene, the killer seemed to have truly struck at random. But I don't believe it was that random at all. And I don't think the killer worked alone. Remember, Kinzo's guns all only hold 4+1 rounds. And we have no reason to believe the guns used here were any different from the ones in previous games. The killers were Shannon and Kanon in this case. Kanon entered the room last, and after causing an uproar by throwing Kinzo's corpse into the room, came in shooting. Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths seem telling- they always die if Shannon survives the first twilight, probably because she sees them as an obstacle.

After shooting the required six victims, the survivors are herded someplace they can be kept under control. Gohda and Kumasawa are threatened and told to go to the guesthouse and keep the cousins there. They are given a specific story to tell, about how Kinzo summoned demons and killed everyone etc. If the killers find out they didn't tell them that story, the hostages lives are forfeit. The initial phone call is made. The prisoners are made to tell their families the same story as Gohda and Kumsawa, along with an addendum that they are being held prisoner in Kuwadorian- someplace the cousins have no idea how to find, discouraging them from staging a rescue mission. Everyone held 'prisoner' gets a round on the phone, seemingly removing them from suspicion. Kyrie slips in a seemingly coded statement during her conversation with Battler, which would seem odd since the first phone call was supposed to have been done without their jailer present.

Gohda and Kumasawa are locked into the garden storage, and killed immediately after the cousins leave. 'How' is almost a moot question, since there isn't even a guarantee there was only one key to the lock. But either way, the killer, Shannon, approached them from the door or the window and threatened them, ordering them to put the nooses around their necks. Once the ropes were set to the her satisfaction, she shot them. If it was from the door, she just locked up. The window: the impact and the tightness of the ropes holding them up caused them to turn away from the window after they were shot. Easy as pie.

I'm theorizing that Gohda and Kumasawa were killed early, because from the time they were locked in, until Battler found them, only an hour and a half or so passed. The killers had alot to do in that time, what with all the phone calls and chasing people around and whatnot. I doubt one of them stopped half way and suddenly felt compelled to kill the people in the box.

So from here the 'testing' begins. Jessica is called out. She meets up with Shannon. Now, it's been a pet theory of mine that Jessica could be involved with the killers. We promised not to talk about motives yet, right? If Jessica was working with them, things can clarify a bit. George is called out, and Shannon meets him at the arbor, where she shoots George dead. He failed his 'test'. Jessica is not happy about this. Her plan was to leave the cousins out of this. When Jessica goes to her room to make the phone call as planned, to cover for her own death, Shannon takes her gun and kills her. Jessica's phone call was the clue here- unlike Kyrie's calls, Jessica's call went out of its way not to give any clues about the killers. Instead, the clues in her conversation pointed back at her, since she knew things that were strange if she hadn't been involved (how she'd die, how George died).

But wait, lets rewind a bit- Kanon died ninth after all. He's been on guard duty, looking after the prisoners. At some point, he lowers his guard for some reason. Maybe Shannon contacted him, or Jessica. However it happened, he was distracted long enough for Krauss to overpower him and take the gun away. He's killed during the struggle, or maybe Krauss just got even for his wife. On her way back from killing Jessica, Shannon sees Krauss and company fleeing out the back door. She shoots Krauss immediately, and chases Nanjo and Kyrie out to the well. Nanjo is shot, and Shannon forces Kyrie to go back into the mansion for a final phone call.

The call is made, Kyrie makes a number of cryptic statements that I think were trying to hint at the truth to Battler, and then is shot. Shannon goes into the final stage of her plan. This is the first time she's made it this far. She calls Battler up, talking crazily to get him off balance. Maria is the one to answer the phone, she is told to come to the doors of the mansion where 'Beatrice' will let her in. Battler is kept busy for a few minutes while the witch spins him some BS. Finally, she tells him to come to the front doors of the mansion for his test.

Battler detours a bit along the way, checking on Gohda and Kumasawa and seeing them lying limp on the ropes. He also finds George where he fell in the arbor. Around this time, Maria is made to take a poison capsule by Beatrice. She's given a clean death, out of deference to her position in the Mariage Sorciere. Battler finally arrives at the mansion. Beatrice is waiting for him, coming out onto the balcony to meet him.

Battler is tested, and Beatrice is not happy with the results. She decided that further testing is useless, and she should 'leave the game board'. Battler demands to know where Maria is, and she tells him to go to the chapel, where she left a set of keys some time earlier, probably around the time she killed Gohda and Kumasawa. They probably belonged to Genji. While Battler is busy running to the chapel and fumbling around with the keys, Shannon changes back out of the Beatrice getup. Honestly, I kind of suspect she could be wearing it under her maid outfit- looking at Shannon and suit Beato in the TIPS, you can almost see the edge of Beatrice's skirt in Shannon's normal outfit. I'm gonna resign from the debate as to how the tatoo changes legs however. A stick on I suppose After she's changed, she picks up all the guns, a rope, and a heavy stone or some other similar object. While she's in the boiler room getting the rope, she tosses Kinzo into the fire.

She doesn't have alot of time, and she might not really care about the ceremony anymore anyway, so she does a very half hearted job of the stakings. Only Kyrie and Krauss are staked, and only one is done correctly. For consistency's sake, she drops Nanjo's stake next to him. She then drops any extra guns into the well. Tying a rope to the heavy stone, she ties the other end to the stock of her gun, and lowers the stone down through the gaps in the grate. She lies down, and sets her stake next to her head. She shoots herself, and when she goes limp the stone drags the gun up the side of the well and through the grate, removing the last weapon from Battler's reach.

So Battler is left alone, and spends the next 24 hours searching for clues. He never finds Kanon, so I'm not really sure where his body fell. It might be locked in Kinzo's study- Battler never found Genji's key so he never went inside.

And as for the final mystery... well. There has been alot of speculation. The arrival of another person on the island named 'Ushiromiya Battler', poison, explosion, volcano, landslide, lightning strike, meteors, tidal waves, you name it. And with no evidence, we can't rule out much. But we can rule out another person on the island, unless you can accept that Beatrice's red might be interpreted loosely enough that, as said, there was another person on the island named Battler. We're talking so loose that they'd fall off if they were clothes. Asumu's real son? Maybe, but it wasn't Kanon- he's confirmed dead, and is too young anyway.

Bleh, that got even bigger than I thought. And I'm not going to touch on motives, that just opens up a maze of thought with no exits. Only one thing about the killer's motive is clear- they wanted, very badly, for Battler to believe in 'magic'. They even made all the victims repeat the story they made up. So killing them self to complete the illusion doesn't seem impossible. I pretty much made this theory backwards, starting with 'Who could have committed suicide at the end and how?' and ending here when I could only put Shannon as having an opportunity to commit suicide.

Although, I suppose if Jessica were the killer, as I thought once before, she might have ordered Maria to hide the gun, lock the door, and then swallow poison.

[The Visored]

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

Okay, I'll take up that challenge. But it's gonna be huge. And I'm not gonna talk about motives... Those arguments never get anyplace.

Spoiler for A massive wall of text of DOOM:

By my theory, the first victims were Natsuhi, Rudolph, Hideyoshi, Eva, Genji and Rosa. As was said during the scene, the killer seemed to have truly struck at random. But I don't believe it was that random at all. And I don't think the killer worked alone. Remember, Kinzo's guns all only hold 4+1 rounds. And we have no reason to believe the guns used here were any different from the ones in previous games. The killers were Shannon and Kanon in this case. Kanon entered the room last, and after causing an uproar by throwing Kinzo's corpse into the room, came in shooting. Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths seem telling- they always die if Shannon survives the first twilight, probably because she sees them as an obstacle.

After shooting the required six victims, the survivors are herded someplace they can be kept under control. Gohda and Kumasawa are threatened and told to go to the guesthouse and keep the cousins there. They are given a specific story to tell, about how Kinzo summoned demons and killed everyone etc. If the killers find out they didn't tell them that story, the hostages lives are forfeit. The initial phone call is made. The prisoners are made to tell their families the same story as Gohda and Kumsawa, along with an addendum that they are being held prisoner in Kuwadorian- someplace the cousins have no idea how to find, discouraging them from staging a rescue mission. Everyone held 'prisoner' gets a round on the phone, seemingly removing them from suspicion. Kyrie slips in a seemingly coded statement during her conversation with Battler, which would seem odd since the first phone call was supposed to have been done without their jailer present.

Gohda and Kumasawa are locked into the garden storage, and killed immediately after the cousins leave. 'How' is almost a moot question, since there isn't even a guarantee there was only one key to the lock. But either way, the killer, Shannon, approached them from the door or the window and threatened them, ordering them to put the nooses around their necks. Once the ropes were set to the her satisfaction, she shot them. If it was from the door, she just locked up. The window: the impact and the tightness of the ropes holding them up caused them to turn away from the window after they were shot. Easy as pie.

I'm theorizing that Gohda and Kumasawa were killed early, because from the time they were locked in, until Battler found them, only an hour and a half or so passed. The killers had alot to do in that time, what with all the phone calls and chasing people around and whatnot. I doubt one of them stopped half way and suddenly felt compelled to kill the people in the box.

So from here the 'testing' begins. Jessica is called out. She meets up with Shannon. Now, it's been a pet theory of mine that Jessica could be involved with the killers. We promised not to talk about motives yet, right? If Jessica was working with them, things can clarify a bit. George is called out, and Shannon meets him at the arbor, where she shoots George dead. He failed his 'test'. Jessica is not happy about this. Her plan was to leave the cousins out of this. When Jessica goes to her room to make the phone call as planned, to cover for her own death, Shannon takes her gun and kills her. Jessica's phone call was the clue here- unlike Kyrie's calls, Jessica's call went out of its way not to give any clues about the killers. Instead, the clues in her conversation pointed back at her, since she knew things that were strange if she hadn't been involved (how she'd die, how George died).

But wait, lets rewind a bit- Kanon died ninth after all. He's been on guard duty, looking after the prisoners. At some point, he lowers his guard for some reason. Maybe Shannon contacted him, or Jessica. However it happened, he was distracted long enough for Krauss to overpower him and take the gun away. He's killed during the struggle, or maybe Krauss just got even for his wife. On her way back from killing Jessica, Shannon sees Krauss and company fleeing out the back door. She shoots Krauss immediately, and chases Nanjo and Kyrie out to the well. Nanjo is shot, and Shannon forces Kyrie to go back into the mansion for a final phone call.

The call is made, Kyrie makes a number of cryptic statements that I think were trying to hint at the truth to Battler, and then is shot. Shannon goes into the final stage of her plan. This is the first time she's made it this far. She calls Battler up, talking crazily to get him off balance. Maria is the one to answer the phone, she is told to come to the doors of the mansion where 'Beatrice' will let her in. Battler is kept busy for a few minutes while the witch spins him some BS. Finally, she tells him to come to the front doors of the mansion for his test.

Battler detours a bit along the way, checking on Gohda and Kumasawa and seeing them lying limp on the ropes. He also finds George where he fell in the arbor. Around this time, Maria is made to take a poison capsule by Beatrice. She's given a clean death, out of deference to her position in the Mariage Sorciere. Battler finally arrives at the mansion. Beatrice is waiting for him, coming out onto the balcony to meet him.

Battler is tested, and Beatrice is not happy with the results. She decided that further testing is useless, and she should 'leave the game board'. Battler demands to know where Maria is, and she tells him to go to the chapel, where she left a set of keys some time earlier, probably around the time she killed Gohda and Kumasawa. They probably belonged to Genji. While Battler is busy running to the chapel and fumbling around with the keys, Shannon changes back out of the Beatrice getup. Honestly, I kind of suspect she could be wearing it under her maid outfit- looking at Shannon and suit Beato in the TIPS, you can almost see the edge of Beatrice's skirt in Shannon's normal outfit. I'm gonna resign from the debate as to how the tatoo changes legs however. A stick on I suppose After she's changed, she picks up all the guns, a rope, and a heavy stone or some other similar object. While she's in the boiler room getting the rope, she tosses Kinzo into the fire.

She doesn't have alot of time, and she might not really care about the ceremony anymore anyway, so she does a very half hearted job of the stakings. Only Kyrie and Krauss are staked, and only one is done correctly. For consistency's sake, she drops Nanjo's stake next to him. She then drops any extra guns into the well. Tying a rope to the heavy stone, she ties the other end to the stock of her gun, and lowers the stone down through the gaps in the grate. She lies down, and sets her stake next to her head. She shoots herself, and when she goes limp the stone drags the gun up the side of the well and through the grate, removing the last weapon from Battler's reach.

So Battler is left alone, and spends the next 24 hours searching for clues. He never finds Kanon, so I'm not really sure where his body fell. It might be locked in Kinzo's study- Battler never found Genji's key so he never went inside.

And as for the final mystery... well. There has been alot of speculation. The arrival of another person on the island named 'Ushiromiya Battler', poison, explosion, volcano, landslide, lightning strike, meteors, tidal waves, you name it. And with no evidence, we can't rule out much. But we can rule out another person on the island, unless you can accept that Beatrice's red might be interpreted loosely enough that, as said, there was another person on the island named Battler. We're talking so loose that they'd fall off if they were clothes. Asumu's real son? Maybe, but it wasn't Kanon- he's confirmed dead, and is too young anyway.

Bleh, that got even bigger than I thought. And I'm not going to touch on motives, that just opens up a maze of thought with no exits. Only one thing about the killer's motive is clear- they wanted, very badly, for Battler to believe in 'magic'. They even made all the victims repeat the story they made up. So killing them self to complete the illusion doesn't seem impossible. I pretty much made this theory backwards, starting with 'Who could have committed suicide at the end and how?' and ending here when I could only put Shannon as having an opportunity to commit suicide.

Although, I suppose if Jessica were the killer, as I thought once before, she might have ordered Maria to hide the gun, lock the door, and then swallow poison.

WOW.
That surely is a massive wall of text of DOOM.
Seems pretty solid but is hard to see Shannon do that.
Though is true that if Shannon pass through the first twilight
we see Beatrice in her "human form".

We can add that Shannon knows Battler's Sin because he meets her
before leaving the family six years before and for telling her that he will
return in a white horse (or something like that) implicating that maybe there
is something between Shannon and Battler that we don't know.