2010-08-31, 13:47 | Link #16861 | |||
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Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but if Erika only placed the seals when she investigated it, we just have to remember that she didn't go into the room while Krauss and the others could still catch her entering it. That is a few seconds gap. Quote:
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2010-08-31, 14:02 | Link #16862 |
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On the messages in the bottles.
The point Renall raised about the lack of reliability of such a method to convey a message is consistent with Beatrice's personality which was explained in detail many times. Beatrice entrusts everything to fate, if then her objective goes wrong because of "fate" she's ready to accept it. She prefers a method that has a chance to fail than a method that will work for sure, because if then it works she can believe fate had a part on it. So the messages in the bottle were used by a Beatrice that was well aware that they might have gone lost. She was ready to accept that risk. Then she probably sent several bottles, at the very least they were more than two, at least three I'd say, else there would be little point into writing different stories. The kind of system she used to send the money was yet another non reliable system. She didn't even explain a thing in the letter so the chances that they'd be ignored or tossed was high (in fact). Beatrice probably thought that only those favored by fate would have the right to actually get the money. Now this is the part I'm sure of. The rest... not so much. But I can try: 1) The content of the message in the bottle wasn't considered relevant. The story was obviously ridiculous, and no logic relation could be made about the explosion. Just a joke story which by some strange chance just happened to predict somehow the death of all the family members (and not even accurately since Eva survived). The first message was still kept as an evidence because it was found near the site, plus no one was there to claim it, unlike the diary and the stake. 2) Maria's diary can't possibly have been found on the site, it would have vaporized unless Eva for some reason took it with her, but that's unlikely. Rather it's more plausiblee that the diary comes from Rosa's house. That means that was an older diary and not the most recent one which Maria took with herself. The stake should also come from some other place. I don't think a 30 dollar junk can be that sturdy to survive an explosion that left a crater 1km wide. However it's very hard to imagine why that stake was found in a different place... Now the fisherman story is the only one that leaves me with some doubt, but we know very little about that fisherman and his reasons. That apart this story doesn't particularly strikes me as false. Not as close as the 900tons of explosive story anyway. On shkanon explanation I must say that the explanation for how shkanon came into play doesn't seem to make much sense especially after EP7. Even the magical explanation is ridiculous. I mean... Beatrice said: "I'll give you a younger brother to fill up the void that Battler left". But was it really necessary? Couldn't she fill the void with... I don't know... another boyfriend? Okay even if there wasn't any readily available boyfriend at that time, there certainly was another later, doesn't this mean that at that point Kanon was no longer needed? Well to be honest I fail to see the logic of this to begin with. Wasn't it easier to strengthen the bonds with already existing persons like Kumasawa and Jessica? The best cure for a broken heart is friendship, certainly, that's what normal people do, they don't create fictional friends, even less impersonate them. People don't seem to like the idea of DID, but seriously this girl is messed up regardless of the existence of DID as one of her psychological disturbs. At the very least she's psychotic. Now Shannon replies that she doesn't accept that, she doesn't want her love to die. So Beatrice comes up with another idea: "I'll take your love in myself, so that love will still live in me, I'll give it back to you should Battler return, in the meantime you'll forget about it". Perfect. But then if now we have this plan B why do we still need plan A? I mean Shannon wakes up and forgets why she even cried! So why does she still need that younger brother? Above anything else, why this young brother needs to be Kinzo's favorite fukuin servant? Does this have anything to do with Shannon's heart problems? Is a Kinzo's henchman more fitted for the role of Battler memory eraser? I don't know maybe I'm stupid, I don't get it. Usually magic scenes still have some grain of truth in them, but in this case I fail to find any plausible interpretation. Next thing we see is that Shannon wakes up and she says that a new servant (Kanon) is showing up that very day. Now let's say for a moment that shkanon is false. Then this new servant just showed up by himself, and Shannon just made up in her mind that his existence was created for the purpose of relieving her pain. But then I don't get why Kanon doesn't exist in Lion's world. Kanon has to be related to Beatrice somehow. No Beatrice = No Kanon. So if Kanon exists, then he must have been hired for Shannon's sake. On the other side if shkanon is true, I guess it could be easily explained if Shannon just asked Genji and Kumasawa to help her with her absolutely crazy idea to work twice as normal on top of her school duties (actually she just finished school that year? Maybe that's how it went, she suddenly found herself with too much time! I guess she couldn't have that...). The only "little" problem is that as we see later Shannon/Beatrice/Yasu didn't know at all who she was, she believed herself to be just a servant, who the hell gave her the authority to tell Genji what to do? Certainly Shannon couldn't do that by herslef... I mean not even a master of tricks like her could pull something like that without any accomplice. In both cases we need to assume that at least Genji is acting to fulfill Shannon's desires. However this makes absolutely no sense. It would have been all a lot easier with the assumption that Yasu can have the cooperation of Geni and Kumasawa, or even better if the whole shkanon idea was Kinzo's will. However Episode7 destroyed both, and now shkanon makes even less sense than before. Ironically Episode7 also gives some strong hints about shkanon being true, and destroyed Kinzo/Kanon in the process. I'm still certain as before that shkanon is true... but for the life of me I can't explain it. Either Ryuukishi is going to give us an unsatisfactory explanation or this is the toughest mystery to solve he ever came up with
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Last edited by Jan-Poo; 2010-08-31 at 14:15. |
2010-08-31, 14:11 | Link #16863 | |
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Complaints to the difficulty of the task do not make my suggestion any less valid, and other than chronotrig, I know of no one who has even tried. I didn't like what he had, but he did have it.
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2010-08-31, 14:17 | Link #16864 | ||
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2010-08-31, 14:22 | Link #16865 | |
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For example after EP5 Shannontrice was a lot more sensate than Jessitrice or than the pony theory that assumed Beatrice existed as an individual. However not everyone seemed to realize it. What I mean to say is that the "answers" so far looked definitely better than the other theories, but it seems that a good lot of people just couldn't accept them. And guess what, this is exactly what Ryuukishi said he wants. He definitely said that he wants to give hints that will be only understood by those who found the truth, and still remain oblivious to those who are far from it.
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2010-08-31, 14:32 | Link #16866 | ||
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2010-08-31, 14:40 | Link #16867 | |
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It doesn't matter if you don't like Shkanontrice. It doesn't matter if it's [Solution X] and you don't like it either. No one can negate your personal judgment, but the story will be what it is and the solution will be what it is.
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2010-08-31, 14:46 | Link #16868 | ||||||||
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Also, it reinforces the concept of the meta-fictional Beatrice to "entrust everything to fate," but that doesn't prove that any "real" person set things adrift. Again, if there's a hoax going on, it would have to reinforce the conception of Beatrice that the message bottle writer wants people to have. In that sense, there'd be no way to tell for sure. Quote:
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If a person wanted to create a hoax, it would be difficult to do if the message bottles were released immediately upon discovery. There would be a weird story, but without the Kinzo occult library rumors and the foundation of the Rokkenjima Witch Hunt, there might not have been an audience. Mix that in and now you have a group that will believe anything you say because it runs counter to the "official" explanation. Now, and only now, do the message bottles have their full impact, and it's exactly at this time that they appear. Even though they've allegedly been in people's possession for some time. I dunno. That rubs me wrong. It sure is convenient. Quote:
Surely her imagination is better than that, as the entire Yasu story up to that point suggests she's quite imaginative.
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2010-08-31, 14:48 | Link #16869 | |
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Kinzo is the culprit Krauss is the culprit Natsuhi is the culprit Jessica is the culprit Eva is the culprit Hideyoshi is the culprit George is the culprit Rudolf is the culprit Kyrie is the culprit Battler is the culprit Ange is the culprit Rosa is the culprit Maria is the culprit Nanjo is the culprit Genji is the culprit Shannon is the culprit Kanon is the culprit Kumasawa is the culprit Gohda is the culprit Yasu/Lion is the culprit Asumu is the culprit Maria's dad is the culprit Kinzo's wife is the culprit Okonogi is the culprit Kasumi is the culprit Manon is the culprit Renon is the culprit Reinon is the culprit Runon is the culprit Berune is the culprit Asune is the culprit Kawabata is the culprit Nanjo's son is the culprit The Maid that got hurt falling from the stairs is the culprit The Maid that was carrying the baby is the culprit Beatrice2 is the culprit Beatrice Castiglioni is the culprit Nanjo's granddaughter is the culprit Amakusa is the culprit Ootsuki is the culprit Kumasawa's son is the culprit Hachijo Tooya is the culprit There is no culprit Good one of my "shotgun bullets" must have hit the center. Wasn't that the greatest display of detective logic?
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2010-08-31, 14:54 | Link #16870 | |
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2010-08-31, 14:57 | Link #16872 | |
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...BUT YOU MISSED ONE PERSON. The killer is the reader. Because they want to read this twisted story, people die in it. Seriously though, even if you keep an open mind everyone has some kind of pet theory. I like the Krauss-theory the best. |
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2010-08-31, 15:09 | Link #16873 | ||
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Now I'm not expecting that the true theory will shine like a sun in a world of darkness, but at least a bit shiny than the rest, yeah I'd expect at least that much. I think that "coming up with theories" is the easiest work of a detective, and the less detective-like job. That's because it's possible to come across the true theory by mere chance using a brainstorming technique. And finding the answer to a mystery by mere chance is actually an infringement to the knox rules. The true praiseworthy detective skill comes later when you actually try to discern the truth from the sea of lies, but that means the truth must be seen somehow. That doesn't mean that the truth must be seen by anyone, but it must definitely be seen by someone who has the skill to see it, and not just by someone who had the luck to just fancy that theory more than the rest. When you create a bulk of theories like a shotgun round, you practically just create a sea of lies, with possibly a single truth in them. But creating lies is not what a detective should do, a detective job is to find the truth.
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2010-08-31, 15:15 | Link #16874 |
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Well, you forget, a truly clever witch can deflect the entire shotgun approach with a flurry of reds that will avoid excluding as many people as possible while making it appear that the red has made it impossible for every single person to be the culprit. Indeed, "x is the culprit" alone might be insufficient, because the witch side can pull out the one thing they were not involved in and say "Aha, but x didn't do y!"
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2010-08-31, 15:18 | Link #16875 | |
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There are thousands of possible theories here, the clues are vague at best, and the light is covered by darkness. I accused Ryuukishi of cheating on this very basis that the only way to find an answer being the machine gun approach, which violates Knox and Dine. I don't remember who pointed out that Japanese literature yadda yadda. I think we are going to get some random solution that we could have reasonably deduced but had no incentive to believe in it over anything else. I don't believe Umineko is a fair mystery. You either use the shotgun or you hope for your single theory to be that 1-to-1000 miracle shot, as everyone here agrees that Umineko isn't a fair mystery. A single theory isn't enough, because even if it contradicts absolutely nothing, it has a small chance of being true. The best theory the fandom has so far is that we have an androgynous psychopath on the loose. Umineko isn't a fair mystery. It's cheap. We are not the detectives. If we had the chance to use actually say things(I don't even need blue, give me black and white and I'll take it) and investigate the world for ourselves, sure. Then we could actually find the truth hidden in the sea of lies. But as it is now, it's more like finding a drop of water in the Ocean. It's not the impossibilities that are the problem. It's the possibilities that make it impossible for a single solution duel like in most fair mysteries to be possible. |
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2010-08-31, 15:24 | Link #16877 |
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The actual problem is that none of those statement directly denies magic.
But I was making a more general example about the shotgun method. Of course you could say "saying the culprit doesn't suffice" but then it just becomes a matter of time, I can add to the variables the motive and method, so to get in the end a theory with a whydunnit and howdunnit as well. I could actually create a program to make all the possible combinations for me, the list would be enormous of course. The point is that given enough time I could definitely compile a list of theories where I'd most probably hit the right solution to this game at least partially. I don't think I actually need to do that, I think the example I made before should suffice to make you understand what I'm saying. What I'm trying to say is that the shotgun method is certainly effective if used to its full potential, maybe even more effective than any other method. But even so it's a worthless method, it's a brainless method. What matters is not the goal but how you reach it.
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2010-08-31, 15:27 | Link #16878 | |
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2010-08-31, 15:35 | Link #16880 | |
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Getting it right by solving clues with a 100% method was it? There is no such a thing as 100% in mysteries. A fair mystery should be 50-50 in the writer vs reader duel. The writer must mislead the reader while allowing him to see the right answer at the same time. The reader must see through the illusion. |
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