Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ows-war-s-cost

Prabowo insists that his peace plan on using DMZs to get Ukraine and Russia to pull back is "realistic" during the Shangri-La dialogue.

I've read the details from other news sources. It's unrealistic, but it's only because it can give Moscow/the L/DPR time to rearm itself.

Also consider that the elections in Indonesia are already coming.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

Possible first combat sighting of Leopards in DPR frontlines:



Khodakovsky is the deputy head of the Russian national guard in Donetsk, by the way - a former UA special forces operator who switched sides in 2014.

To be taken with a grain of salt, of course - and it's uncertain whether those where L1s or L2s.

L1's seem unlikely as the bulk of them are generally slatted to get delivered latter in the year, where as Leo2's are already in service with Ukrainian brigades.

Western Kit *might* suggest things amping up. But it's still not totally clear if this is the primary push or just a series of probing/fixing attacks. Still very much wait and see.

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1665905176140554243

The video shows the dam breach in Nova Kakhovka

[Roger Rambo]

By and large this only really makes sense as a tactical panic move by the Russians in response to the uptake in Ukrainian offensive activity. And them being anxious about being able to hold their side of the river. The dam both serves as a bridge across the Dnipro, and the flooding makes other types of river crossing more difficult.

That said. This is pretty goddamned monstrous and fucking stupid. This is going to cause massive amounts of human suffering. And this bloody dam was a strategic objective for Russia since it supplies water to the canal that goes down to Crimea, which got cut off post 2014. Russia seems to be applying scorched earth tactics to Southern parts of Ukraine they've already annexed even before the Ukrainians are retaking that territory.

[ramlaen]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...kraine-russia/

Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

[Jaden]

Blowing up that dam seems such a pointless and pure evil act, but I believe that is indeed what happened.

Could it be that it simply collapsed due to criminal negligence? It's been observed that the water levels in the reservoir were at an all-time high, yet floodgates were kept closed. And despite regular surveillance of the dam, there's no evidence that it exploded.

Ukrainians claim that although the dam was in disrepair, it wasn't about to collapse. And that the water was being held back deliberately to maximize flood damage. There's also footage of mines flowing downstream and exploding as they smash on rocks, suggesting that the Russians had indeed rigged the dam.

Also, the Russian counter-claim is not that this was an accident, but that the dam was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. This is the most unbelievable version of the story, as both the dam and Kherson bridge took many HIMARS hits in 2022 without any loss of integrity.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...kraine-russia/

Honestly that Ukraine cultivated some plans to bomb the Nordstream that involved maintaining plausible deniability for their own civil admin doesn't seem too unbelievable. I'm not certain this paints Ukraine as definitively 100% behind the bombing considering there was some rather suspect movement of Russian Navy Warships with their transponders strangely turned off before the pipeline burst, and I'm not sure Ukraine would have have wanted to carry out the plan if US and European intelligence knew about it.

There would certainly be a whole can of worms if the United States, Germany and potentially several other European countries knew that Ukrainian intelligence was planning this and all essentially opted to take no diplomatic/law enforcement/covert efforts to keep it from happening.

[mangamuscle]

IMO, the blowing of the Kakhovka dam is but a batman gambit. We all know that putin is a one trick pony that thinks the one answer to all his problems is to murder and brutalize anyone or anything in his path to glory. We know Crimea is an angular stone of that "Destiny Manifest" he believes only he can bring to fruition and it is no secret the AFU have been positioning their fores along the Dnipro river. So it was to be expected putin would flooding kherson to prevent a counteroffensive. It is also to be expected that russians would have the arrogance to believe they could do a controlled release.

So Ukraine could do nothing to stop putin ordering the flooding since the dam was under russian control and explosives had already been planted, so storming the dam would only precipitate its destrution. But they could plan ahead.

[Key Board]

Funny how Elon Musk became a Russian asset and is pushing Russian propaganda non stop because a Ukranian official told him to screw off last year.

//

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Key Board

Funny how Elon Musk became a Russian asset and is pushing Russian propaganda non stop because a Ukranian official told him to screw off last year.

//

I am curious where you read this gem.

[Key Board]

Musk has been amplifying the Russian narrative on twitter for months now.

if you're asking for the tweet that drove him over the edge, it's this

Spoiler:

//

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Key Board

Musk has been amplifying the Russian narrative on twitter for months now.

if you're asking for the tweet that drove him over the edge, it's this

Spoiler:

//

Can you give an example of a Russian narrative that Elon has been pushing, non stop or in passing, since last year?

Teslas were the most popular car in the world in Q1 of this year by the way.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...raine_war.html

Kadyrov's Telegram has him boast the Baoji Tiger APCs he acquired from China.

[Yu Ominae]

Turning Point has a video made on how Russia failed to turn the war in their favor after failing to take Kyiv.

[Renegade334]

Possibly one Leopard 2 lost to artillery (observed on fire by drone) with three more claimed destroyed by Russian milbloggers and commentators.

As expected, the switch from defensive to offensive mode has resulted in higher casualties than previously, though with reports of some territory gains. Lack of air support could unfortunately increase the ground troops' difficulties in reclaiming occupied land.

EDIT: alas, UA got Vuhledar'ed in one baffling instance in Zaporizhzia. Lost four Bradleys (damaged, then abandoned) and one Leo 2A6, then brought more Bradleys to the fray and started taking losses, too.

[Yu Ominae]

From the photos I've seen on the Bradleys/Leopard, their tracks got wrecked.

[Renegade334]

Mobility/mission kill indeed. Vehicles could still be salvageable if ARVs can get there.

Biggest priority right now for UA is get sustainable air support or higher artillery volume to push the frontlines back.

[Roger Rambo]

It's probably worth noting that a lot of stuff like this happened in the early phases of the Kherson Counter offensive. Where newly formed Ukrainian brigades moving against fortified positions through mined pre-sighted artillery fields. There was some really bad setbacks as a consequence to that, but that didn't get as much attention since the wrecked Ukrainian kit was all Soviet derived. To a certain extent this is blowing up because it's Western kit getting wrecked, which a lot of people noted should be expected even if this offensive ultimately makes gains.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...onging_to_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV..._to_our_drone/

A Ukrainian drone takes out a Kadyrov Chechen from the Akhmat Vostok (aka the Kadyrovtsy).

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65901723

BBC has a profile on General Valery Zaluzhny. He studied at a military college when Ukraine became independent, so his experience only came from anti-separatist operations in 2014 onwards.

He's only of the (rare) few officers who didn't fully study USSR military doctrine.

Zaluzhny's targeted by both the FSB and pro-invasion bloggers/Putinboos worldwide.