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Old 2012-10-18, 19:28   Link #30901
Kealym
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
Thought I share this:
Found it interesting, not believing it though.
Well, that IS pretty interesting.
Disregards way, way too much of the story for me to really go with it, but damnit if I can entertain the idea of 6-year-old Ange as an evil mastermind who blew up her family, I can entertain this a little, too.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
Just sounds to me like as if Ryukishi kinda implies that while there is an actual truth which is correct, there is also another truth that is correct and far better when overthinking the obvious and seeing the mistakes to reach a conclusion that is superior than the actual one.

Which is why I think there are two answers to Umineko.
Shkanon and something else.
Well, I agree, SORT OF?
To keep from getting into a rant, Ryukishi brings up a lot of ... well, interesting points in Chiru. very interesting. He seems to be a writer who's very aware of what he's doing as a writer, but is ... inconsistent in how he feels about it. "Fine the truth!", but then "No, you don't need the truth." Or "Fill witches with an entire barrage of stakes!" but then "Don't forget the heart." And then there's EP5's where both of the answers acknowledged as valid we are outright told are both wrong, anyway.

Is Battler/Erika's answer better? Certainly more interesting and clever ... or are they just overeager goats who didn't notice that there was clearly a drawing of a hunk of cheese that would not bend the way they suggest, right on the page? Are they ignoring the heart of childrens--puzzle-book-writer-dude..?

...unless, wait, maybe you're talking about Prime? Who the hell knows what he intends THAT answer to be. You may as well say he wrote the question, burned it, and handed you a blnk sheet of paper with some corner scraps of the burnt paper. All you can evens write is "Yup, there's some real burnt paper, here."
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Old 2012-10-18, 19:43   Link #30902
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by Ryuudou View Post
What would make Yasu the head over Krauss anyways? Krauss vastly outranks Yasu who should be on the same level as the cousins, or slightly below Rosa whether you count her as a child or a grandchild. Is it the epitaph?
Kinzo's will. He's free to leave the headship to whoever he wants and EP 7 makes clear he wanted to leave it to Yasu as he/she is the child of the woman he loved and because he sort of stolen Beato's gold and wanted to return it to her somehow (said in EP 8 also).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryuudou View Post
Is there any confirmation Yasu actually solved it?
Ep 7 for start. If Yasu didn't solve it half of EP 7 is pointless. Plus it's implied by how bribes were handed to the servants (and likely to the relatives) [Ep 4] and by how someone activated the bomb on purpose (the mechanism as described in EP 7 isn't intuitive at all) and warned Eva she would do better to escape.
Our confession also implied this. And Ryukishi's interview confirmed this.

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Originally Posted by Ryuudou View Post
There's a scene in EP3 that implicitly shows Kinzo stating that he thinks a female heir is completely, absolutely, and utterly unfitting (mentioning this because Beatrice 2 is Kinzo's child and was actually female) and this is when Eva was around 17-20 I assume so it's not like it was before he was crazed over Beatrice 1/2. Sure he loved Beatrice 1 more than his marriage wife, but did Kinzo ever put it in writing about Yasu getting it over Krauss? Krauss was born before Beatrice 2.
It's unknown if Kinzo left a written will. Sometimes he says he's against this, in EP 2 though it's said he had Shannon write it (it's obviously fantasy yet it's still interesting because in EP 1 he said he wouldn't do it... and he does it with Shannon).

Anyway, written will or not I don't think Yasu inherited legally title and gold, expecially the gold as it's not supposed to exist since Kinzo owned it illegally but the title also as apparently no one officially notified Yasu's inheritance to someone nor Yasu was inscribed in the family register or officially recognized as Kinzo's child... which would have been troublesome because, if I'm not wrong, the type of incest from which Yasu had birth is a crime in Japan and Beato 2 wasn't even registered as a living person... nor was the baby's birth registered.

The point is: Yasu perceived himself/herself as Kinzo's heir a belief Nanjo, Genji and Kumasawa supported. Yasu had access to the gold which could be converted for him/her in cash by Genji and Yasu probably had no idea or doesn't care about how difficult it would be to legalize his/her claim at being the heir.

Age though isn't a relevant matter in chosing the heir as in EP 7 Kinzo wanted Lion to be the heir and Lion is definitely younger than Krauss, while Eva hoped Kinzo would choose her successful son over Krauss and Rudolf his male sons (as well as the 3 females that are in a higher place than George in the family line of importance).

We don't know if Kinzo ever consider making Beato 2 the heir... it's possible he was hoping to marry her somehow instead than declaring her his daughter so it might be he had a different plan for her.
As he wanted to see Yasu as his child/grandchild instead Kinzo wanted Yasu to be the heir.


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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
And Christie was wrong to do so, I think. It's a stupid technical detail related to a stupid misleading rule. It's also, like, the first thing I thought of in ep4, but like all things I thought of Shkanon-related I discarded it for being too goddamn stupid. Oh well.

It's probably better to just pretend that rule isn't even being considered.
I think Christie handled the whole thing very well instead but that's a matter of opinion.

Christie did many things that weren't exactly classical, like having a policeman being the culprit, or the guy who seemed to be the detective being the culprit, or having the narrator being the culprit or victim & culprit dying by suicide. She even let a culprit escape and we even had a maid who inherited a fortune because she was the actual secret illegittimate daughter to a rich person.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joeyscraggy View Post
Yasu, ladies an gentlemen:

And yup, that's Yasu
She's sort of a mini beato who, interesting enough, doesn't wear a skirt.
She's also similar to Lion and Clair.

I guess it makes sense she would present herself as such though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Personally I've thought that the games are "fake", or at least ambiguous, until the red forces a decision (of course, this assumes that whenever 'xxx is dead' is said, that it's not a lie/copout) and the lid to the box is opened. Let's take EP3 - at the end more or less every normal person that "died" received a red (with the one known loophole of course) stating this.
But until this red was said, they could've been alive the whole time, it might've been a light hearted story about a fake-murder-game at the start. The red retroactively (!), similar to the first logic-error-battle in EP6, forces a decision.

Puts the red for "Because of you, Ushiromiya Battler, people die" in a whole new light; especially if you consider that 1986 would've happened anyway, if we choose to believe in Lions world, so the blame for the "actual" (... as actual as it gets) event can't be with him, he's neither there nor the cataclyst for anything.

Because he demanded this kind of red, they actually die - he turned the gameboards into massacres. Instead of believing.
I'm not sure how reliable is Bern's implication that a mess would happen regardless as she finds only 1 world with Lion when theoretically there should be countless.

Anyway I think that Beato's words about Battler's sins are truthful on a certain point of view.
On the gameboards the guilt is undoubtely on Battler as they're built to make him the cause of everything.
Now, if we consider Prime, the whole story seemed to imply that, at least in this reality, what Battler did started a chain reaction that lead to the Rokkenjima incident.

However, EP 7 seems to imply that, even if Battler hadn't done what he did the situation was as such that, although in a different way, we would reach the same result.

This doesn't make Beato's red wrong, it just says it's possible to reach the same result (everyone died) even in a way that's different from the previous (via Yasu's game)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
(P.S: I think the most hilarious one was that video about Our Confessions where he calls himself one of the few enlighted ones.).
Wait so he talks about Our confession as well?
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Old 2012-10-18, 20:06   Link #30903
Kiltias
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Well, that IS pretty interesting.
Disregards way, way too much of the story for me to really go with it, but damnit if I can entertain the idea of 6-year-old Ange as an evil mastermind who blew up her family, I can entertain this a little, too.
Where does it say she's the mastermind?
It implies that Uminekos central figure is actually Maria, that what we see is her fantasy, its her story and that the girl we see in 1998, Ange, is the actual Maria who relives her childhood fantasies in an alternate universe/reality due to her current living situation being the same as in childhood causing her to escape back into her fantasy.Ange meeting Maria = herself overcoming those illusion, realizing that actual magic doesn't exist allowing her inner child to move on.

Like I said I don't believe but I just like it somehow.XD

Quote:
Is Battler/Erika's answer better? Certainly more interesting and clever ... or are they just overeager goats who didn't notice that there was clearly a drawing of a hunk of cheese that would not bend the way they suggest, right on the page? Are they ignoring the heart of childrens--puzzle-book-writer-dude..?
Not sure what you mean, their answer was THE answer as stated by Maria.
They simply reached a far better conclusion than one that is indeed right.
Everyone part Battler and Erika said 3.That is correct.
Though not THE answer cause as Maria said it, THE answer was 1.
So yes their answer was better and THE actual answer overcoming an answer that is still correct but not the one that was looked for.
And how'd they do it?
One thought it was too easy.The other knew both answers and realized the books mistake and are stated by Maria herself that their answer is absolutely correct.
Implying that while something can be true it doesn't it is THE truth.

Then again, I don't wanna cause a (bleep)storm or something.
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Old 2012-10-18, 20:25   Link #30904
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
Just sounds to me like as if Ryukishi kinda implies that while there is an actual truth which is correct, there is also another truth that is correct and far better when overthinking the obvious and seeing the mistakes to reach a conclusion that is superior than the actual one.

Which is why I think there are two answers to Umineko.
Shkanon and something else.
It makes sense to me, if we go with the whole chessboard thinking thing. Nearly all really good detective novels have at least one fake culprit or fact that gets taken for granted for most of the story, only to get shattered in the big reveal. More fun for the writer, and more fun for the reader, who's forced to rethink everything they took for granted rather than just saying "oh, I guess that's what it was".

While it's certainly true that most of us didn't suspect that Shannon was the culprit or the heir until very late on, the servants as a whole have been obviously suspicious the whole time. In fact, they're so suspicious, you don't even have to think up explanations for most of the closed rooms, since they depend entirely on testimony from those people.

Even more suspicious than this is the character of Beatrice. We've been outright told that she's the culprit constantly, and the old witch pranks tie her pretty clearly to someone living/working on the island.

This is the biggest problem with Shkanon. It has plenty of details that we might find interesting and/or unexpected, but in the end, "crazy person who was Maria's friend, lives on the island, and has a love of the occult killed everyone for an insane ceremony" is the most obvious answer early on in EP1, and remains the most obvious answer throughout the whole series.


Remember the EP3 Ryuukishi, who gave us a half-dozen plot twists in the last few chapters of each game? I find it hard to believe that game's biggest twist is supposed to be which one of the servants was actually the ringleader.
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Old 2012-10-18, 21:56   Link #30905
Renall
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Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
Where does it say she's the mastermind?
It implies that Uminekos central figure is actually Maria, that what we see is her fantasy, its her story and that the girl we see in 1998, Ange, is the actual Maria who relives her childhood fantasies in an alternate universe/reality due to her current living situation being the same as in childhood causing her to escape back into her fantasy.Ange meeting Maria = herself overcoming those illusion, realizing that actual magic doesn't exist allowing her inner child to move on.

Like I said I don't believe but I just like it somehow.XD
There are, of course, a number of tricky questions raised by this sort of thing:
  • If Maria is Ange, who then was Ange in 1986? Why mention an irrelevant character if she isn't even the right person? If Ange and Maria switched places... why?
  • What about Ange, Maria, and the Mariage Sorcere? How is this read if Maria and Ange are the same?
  • What about Battler is special to "Ange" in 1998? Ange-as-Ange's obsession with him makes sense, but Maria-as-Ange is a more difficult matter to wrestle with. I suppose you can look to things like Meta-Battler of Chiru, but still...
  • What's the deal with the jawbone?
  • Why would some of these details (especially the entire romance arc) even matter to an older Maria? How does it bring her closer to either the truth or closure?
  • Who was really on the island? Was someone there who wasn't supposed to be (the real Ange?) Was someone not there the stories say was (Battler?).
  • How do the message bottles and "Ushiromiya Maria" signature figure in?
  • How many people are a figment of Maria-Ange's imagination? Did she make up Yasu? Did she make up the entirety of Umineko?
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This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
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Old 2012-10-18, 23:38   Link #30906
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Ohh So that's how Yasu looks like...She's cute XD She's like a little version of Lion :P
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Old 2012-10-19, 01:20   Link #30907
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Originally Posted by Kealym
When these things were written is one of those things everyone just ... has their own feeling about. One thing we can agree upon, though, is that we definitely are NOT reading the same text that was found in those bottles. For firsties, not a single EP is framing itself like a 9-year old's diary.
Seemed to me as if EP4 implies that the bottles were doubted because of this very fact; despite the author claiming to be Maria it just didn't seem like something a 9-year old would be able to write. A quick check of the handwriting lead to the conclusion that it wasn't her.

Of course, then there's the meta-world and the magic scenes that couldn't have been part of them anyway so I'll have to agree with you regardless. Only slight modifications by Itsuko then (+ discussions about the story starting from EP2)? Otherwise it'd be hard to claim that a author switch happened between EP2 and EP3 if Itsuko already wrote the first two as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jiblue1
Anyway I think that Beato's words about Battler's sins are truthful on a certain point of view.
On the gameboards the guilt is undoubtely on Battler as they're built to make him the cause of everything.
Now, if we consider Prime, the whole story seemed to imply that, at least in this reality, what Battler did started a chain reaction that lead to the Rokkenjima incident.
Considering that EP7's "motive" might be about the "crime" of writing murder stories - regardless of what Yasu may or may not have done during the conference - we can also just see Battler as the cataclyst for the Witch-Hunter movement (and screwing up the lives of Eva and Ange in the process, causing the death of the latter in EP4). But with this issue (and this red) we're deep in the realm of interpretation so I'm gonna put a big questionmark on this whole approach.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jiblue1
However, EP 7 seems to imply that, even if Battler hadn't done what he did the situation was as such that, although in a different way, we would reach the same result.

This doesn't make Beato's red wrong, it just says it's possible to reach the same result (everyone died) even in a way that's different from the previous (via Yasu's game)
Hence me just choosing to "believe" into this possibility. The whole Tea Party in EP7 actually reminded me of a certain other VN. "The forest [=will of the author] is forcing all these ridiculous plot twists to reach a predetermined conclusion!" - it's definitely utterly ridiculous even for Umineko how the tea party played out. It's just driving a point home. Do we "believe" in the point, it would've happened even without Battler, even without Beatrice, and is actually not (or barely) related to them at all even in Prime, or that it was just a metaprank for Ange? Take your pick I suppose.

There's another reason why I like to believe in the way Lion's world is structured, despite not having a single basis for of it: Battler didn't come back in Lion's world, where he probably neither had a relationship with Lion akin to the one he had with Shannon nor a promise; he came back in Prime (and thus causing the gameboards). If we want, we could find one conclusion, one message that Ryukishi might've wanted to tell us with EP7-Lion-gameboard layout: Battler remembered in Prime - he came back for Shannon.

Doesn't make it right or true in any form of course, but it's a "kinda happy end" that I can accept. Sadly it's hard to combine this thought with the "Nervous Wreck Battler"-theory (= the one where Battler snaps during the Prime-murder game and is the first one to shoot, hence Eva hiding the truth from Ange and Battler losing his memory when failing to cope with this in any other way) because it takes away all the basis for the murder game to happen in the first place. Still, that theory is a personal favourite of mine as well, kudos to whoever thought of it.
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Old 2012-10-19, 02:42   Link #30908
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Wait so he talks about Our confession as well?
Why, you think he'd miss that? He does crap all over it in one part of his videos, I don't remember which one.

But be warned, it's shitty as could be, he's using just the LyricalAura's summary. Yep, he goes on and on for about half an hour without even having red the actual stuff.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Yup. They completely fucked up Yasu's appearance just like I said they would.
In all fairness, she must have been a pain in the ass to depict, but that long hair is seriously not cute, especially for a boy.
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Old 2012-10-19, 03:56   Link #30909
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Yea, she's a pain in the ass to depict.

So...give her the one appearance she absolutely CAN'T have, as a significant plot point? Idiots.
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Old 2012-10-19, 04:17   Link #30910
GuestSpeaker
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that it had been abandoned no earlier than a few days before the accident.
Or have you fallen for the same old trick? There are no MORE than 18 on the island, it cannot have been abandoned EARLIER than a few days before...
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Old 2012-10-19, 04:40   Link #30911
Kiltias
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
There are, of course, a number of tricky questions raised by this sort of thing.

Of course I can't answer that, I'm not the Author afterall but your point of making up the entire of Umineko strongly reminds me of the Movie Identity from 2003.

Malcolm Rivers was a killer that awaits execution for several murders at a motel.
While awaiting execution his journal contains information about the actual truth.

A group of strangers find themselves stuck at a motel cause of a storm.
While they spend the night, they realize there is an unknown murderer present killing everyone.

All the others become worried, and Ginny runs to her room. Her husband Lou chases after her but is also murdered. Ed and Rhodes find the con, knock him out, and put Larry on duty guarding him. However, he is later found dead. Paris discovers a dead body in Larry's freezer. Larry attempts to escape in his truck, claiming he did not kill anybody. He then accidentally runs over George, killing him. Each body is accompanied by a room key, which appear to represent a countdown. The survivors tie Larry up, and as he tells them his story the others start to believe that he really did not kill anyone. Ginny and Timmy both die when their car blows up, but their bodies are nowhere to be seen. The remaining four discover that all the bodies have disappeared and that all 10 share the same birthday, and have surnames the same as US states. Paris also discovers that Rhodes is a convict as well, having killed the corrections officer transporting him and Maine across state and assumed his identity as a police officer. Rhodes attempts to kill her, but she is saved by Larry, who in turn is shot dead by Rhodes.

However here is the deal:
Malcolm suffers from a personality disorder and that all the murders occured within his mind and everyone being a personality of his.
The murders were are way to eliminate the hostile personality of the actual murders (The ones Malcolm had done in real and awaits execution for) to save him from execution.

In the end only Paris survived but inside Malcolms mind, she now lives on a Orange Grove and finds her Motel Key on the floor just like with the other victims and finds Timmy behind her revealed to be the actual hostile personality having orchestrated the murders faking his own death within Malcolms minds killing Paris and taking over Malcolm.
Incidentally, Timmy took over when Malcolm was being driven to a Mental Insitution strangling his psychiatrist causing the van to get in an accident leaving his fate unknown.

Last edited by Kiltias; 2012-10-19 at 04:55.
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Old 2012-10-19, 06:59   Link #30912
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Why are people so shocked by Yasu's appearance? She looks pretty much how I expected her to, really. I always assumed she was blonde, considering that she's supposed to resemble Beatrice.
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Old 2012-10-19, 08:18   Link #30913
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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Basically everywhere in the english Umineko "community" except here. No point in going against it, if others prefer an empty story about nothing and more than 80% of pure filler-material, let them have it.
Funny you say the "English" community. Do you mean to imply that the Japanese community is different, or are you just being unassuming?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese community would have a different opinion just based on them having a more accurate set of reds.

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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
1st theory (that he doesn't support himself): Fake-death drug? Wasn't there something about drugs and all, scientific stuff and all... one of the Knox's.
Knox's 4th. It is forbidden for unknown drugs or hard to understand scientific devices to be USED!!
And it's mighty nice that Nanjo just left him conveniently alive because he's not a killer, it's like the meta-world has influence over him. Like, this theory is trying to go for realistic behaviour and such, right?
For the fake death drugs he refers to Erika mentioning the possibility of insulin being used by the first twilight "victims" in EP6, and how she even says it'd get around Knox's forth. 'Course he uses this as license to invoke fake death drugs... like 2 or 3 times per game. His term 'fake death drug' is really an awful word choice. Apparently he only means common sedatives.

The Nanjo thing stems from his interpretation of Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not killers, spoken in EP4 about the 6th-8th twilights in EP1. He considers it a "general statement" so it applies across all games. So basically it's more a matter of it fitting Nanjo's condition of not being a killer than to fitting Kanon's condition of still being alive.

But yeah, it's still pretty awful. And you're spot on about his second theory. It's even worse.

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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
So either we didn't see the "original bottle"-stories or... well. Ryukishi, it happens to the best of us.

Unless it was actually known for about a week that Ange is going to be sick and Yasu just changed it to "suddenly, on this day, she got sick" to add credibility to the story. Why?
...
Why do you ask? It's When they Cry. Since the bottles are more of an emotional ventil for Yasu an addition like that seems pointless. And probably is.

Was it said somewhere in EP4 or EP8 (therefore, outside the catbox) when Ange got sick? I thought that it said the same as EP1, so on a very short notice, but I might be wrong.
Here's what I have to say about it:

Logistical reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Bribing the police should be pretty difficult.

Thematic reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Eva, who survives in the real world, dies in both of the bottle-stories.
2) Beatrice is supposed to be dead by all magical accounts.

Logistical reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) Battler's return was predicted.
2) Ange's absence was predicted.
3) The typhoon was predicted.
4) An accident was predicted. (Well, this just means that either the author is the actual culprit, or it was written after the tragedy)

Thematic reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) The way I see it, this situation is kind of like a closed room, except it's bound by points in time rather than physical windows and doors. So I see debating whether these logistical conditions allow the author enough time to write... as similar to debating how long the chain is on a closed room and whether it allows someone to lock it or unlock it from the outside. But knowing how Beatrice rolls, the answer has nothing to do with the chain and everything to do with the witnesses: In this case, it's that random fisherman that found the one bottle and the police that released the other.

So yeah, I believe in post-incident authorship. A lot of people here do, though not everyone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
But until this red was said, they could've been alive the whole time, it might've been a light hearted story about a fake-murder-game at the start. The red retroactively (!), similar to the first logic-error-battle in EP6, forces a decision.

Puts the red for "Because of you, Ushiromiya Battler, people die" in a whole new light; especially if you consider that 1986 would've happened anyway, if we choose to believe in Lions world, so the blame for the "actual" (... as actual as it gets) event can't be with him, he's neither there nor the cataclyst for anything.

Because he demanded this kind of red, they actually die - he turned the gameboards into massacres. Instead of believing.
It also works very similarly to "Paranoid Battler" theory. Everything is his fault because he didn't believe in the witch. Which, by the way, thematically matches the EP1 Tea party to a tee.

I wonder if these two ideas can be grafted together.

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Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
And I mean exactly that first twilight. A death drug? Makeup? Seriously? I mean, okay man, you may not like Shkanon, but try to live with it. I won't say anything as arrogant as 'it totally violates Knox', just that I fell from my chair when I watched it.
EP5? Yeah, good times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
No, but seriously, I'm convinced that even if you showed a red statement by Ryukishi himself verifying Shkanon, that guy would still manage to find a way round it. Ryukishi is part of the Illuminati or something...
Well, he claims that Ryukishi lies in interviews, so yeah, I don't think what you are saying here is the slightest exaggeration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
...really? I know KnownoMore has a fair amount of people who are wowed by at the least, his thoroughness, and like the theory, but ... did these people just NOT read the same Dawn that we did..?
They read the same Dawn that Erika did... when she slept through the love duel. It's yet another example of Erika parodying them without them even realizing it.
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Old 2012-10-19, 09:10   Link #30914
qno2
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Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker View Post
Or have you fallen for the same old trick? There are no MORE than 18 on the island, it cannot have been abandoned EARLIER than a few days before...
Point taken. It's said that the bottle appeared in another ocean, implying at least a bit of distance, but who knows how fast a bottle travels on the sea - I wouldn't know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
Funny you say the "English" community. Do you mean to imply that the Japanese community is different, or are you just being unassuming?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese community would have a different opinion just based on them having a more accurate set of reds.
Since I can't read japanese (working on it though) I can't judge their side of endless Umineko-discussions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
For the fake death drugs he refers to Erika mentioning the possibility of insulin being used by the first twilight "victims" in EP6, and how she even says it'd get around Knox's forth.
I'll have to review that scene later...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
The Nanjo thing stems from his interpretation of Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not killers, spoken in EP4 about the 6th-8th twilights in EP1. He considers it a "general statement" so it applies across all games. So basically it's more a matter of it fitting Nanjo's condition of not being a killer than to fitting Kanon's condition of still being alive.
Yes, I'm aware of the red - that's why I said that Nanjo's behaviour in his theory, it's just not... well it is mystery-logic, same as Shkanon. Because the red said so, he doesn't kill. I assumed that KnowNoMore wanted to make the individual stories a bit more realistic (and less dominated by the red) and less bound to such meta-reasons. Guess it's another misconeption I'll have to get rid of.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
So yeah, I believe in post-incident authorship. A lot of people here do, though not everyone.
Guess I won't choose a side juuust yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
I wonder if these two ideas can be grafted together.
I'd say that "Battler's retroactive red killing" is just a supplement for the "Paranoid Battler"-theory then.

Didn't even think about EP1's TP for this... how they are all happily discussing their current predicament until Battler forces their death...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
It's yet another example of Erika parodying them without them even realizing it.
"But... I loved my husband..." - "It's not red, I don't believe it! Say it in redddddd!"
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Old 2012-10-19, 10:23   Link #30915
Captain Bluebeard
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
EP5? Yeah, good times.
But it's not the same thing. In EP5 everyone else was in on it and did their best to hide the corpses from Erika (the detective), plus there kinda were hints of fake deaths all over the place.

I've watched his explanation of the EP1 twilight, I clenched my teeth and tried to endure him, but it's utterly ridiculous. Okay, maybe it was the bad wording of 'death drug' like you said above, but still.... nothing in his explanations seems to tie in with anything, that's why I can't see where the idea he's uncovered the big conspiracy behind Umineko comes from.

Plus he's an arrogant bounder.

Quote:
Well, he claims that Ryukishi lies in interviews, so yeah, I don't think what you are saying here is the slightest exaggeration.
That's exactly my point, and I think Jan-Poo's characterization of him as a 'conspiracy theorist' is deserving of applause.

Even if we accept that Rosa is the Prime culprit, even if we clench our butts and half-heartedly say: yeah, all the absurd stuff make sense, it was all crazy lady for no apparent reason (yeah, sounds almost like Shkanon but at least regardless of how solid it is, at least it does actually connect the points with SOME logic), how, oh, how the hell are we so sure that Ryukishi is writing bullshit to deceive us, waiting for an enlighted guy with an unbearable accent to come and uncover everything in YouTube, and what reason is good enough for a person to spend four years of his life masturbating via the internet at the expense of the people who are dumb enough to read his prodcut.

Apparently, he won't tell.
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Old 2012-10-19, 10:37   Link #30916
Kiltias
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Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
Why are people so shocked by Yasu's appearance? She looks pretty much how I expected her to, really. I always assumed she was blonde, considering that she's supposed to resemble Beatrice.
Same.

Though anybody else thinking this is all we'll get to see of Yasu?
As in we'll never see her actual face/eyes.

Oh and, I freaking LOVE this one:
Spoiler for Manga:


Quote:
Well, he claims that Ryukishi lies in interviews
At least he didn't go as far as some others claiming stuff like Battler being Marias father born cause Rosa seduced him when he was a boy.

Then again, I only watched one video not even full cause I admit, my head actually couldn't take it.XD

I got nothing against the guy, nor theory I don't mind it, though he does strike me as a bit of a (bleep).Or at least arrogant partially.

My doubts are little regarding Yasu as I said before, though personally I am an admirer of the depth regarding her and the truth.
Don't really care if people disagree but I see Yasu as simply an amazing character without equal.
I explained it to a friend as she only saw the Anime and she was like:
"Too deep!TOO DEEP!"

Last edited by Kiltias; 2012-10-19 at 10:51.
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Old 2012-10-19, 11:02   Link #30917
theacefrehley
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Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post

At least he didn't go as far as some others claiming stuff like Battler being Marias father born cause Rosa seduced him when he was a boy.
Now everything makes sense...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Here's what I have to say about it:

Logistical reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Bribing the police should be pretty difficult.

Thematic reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Eva, who survives in the real world, dies in both of the bottle-stories.
2) Beatrice is supposed to be dead by all magical accounts.

Logistical reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) Battler's return was predicted.
2) Ange's absence was predicted.
3) The typhoon was predicted.
4) An accident was predicted. (Well, this just means that either the author is the actual culprit, or it was written after the tragedy)

Thematic reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) The way I see it, this situation is kind of like a closed room, except it's bound by points in time rather than physical windows and doors. So I see debating whether these logistical conditions allow the author enough time to write... as similar to debating how long the chain is on a closed room and whether it allows someone to lock it or unlock it from the outside. But knowing how Beatrice rolls, the answer has nothing to do with the chain and everything to do with the witnesses: In this case, it's that random fisherman that found the one bottle and the police that released the other.

So yeah, I believe in post-incident authorship. A lot of people here do, though not everyone.
I always imagined the bottle message stories were ready for quite some time, in case Battler came back or something. And typhoons are a normal occurrence around there, maybe?
And maybe Ange's roles in the stories were so small, Yasu could just erase her name and fill it with whatever, if she wrote it with a pencil. Even if Ange's absence was informed a day or two before the meeting.
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Old 2012-10-19, 11:33   Link #30918
Renall
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Here's what I have to say about it:

Logistical reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Bribing the police should be pretty difficult.

Thematic reasons to believe pre-incident authorship:
1) Eva, who survives in the real world, dies in both of the bottle-stories.
2) Beatrice is supposed to be dead by all magical accounts.

Logistical reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) Battler's return was predicted.
2) Ange's absence was predicted.
3) The typhoon was predicted.
4) An accident was predicted. (Well, this just means that either the author is the actual culprit, or it was written after the tragedy)

Thematic reasons to believe post-incident authorship:
1) The way I see it, this situation is kind of like a closed room, except it's bound by points in time rather than physical windows and doors. So I see debating whether these logistical conditions allow the author enough time to write... as similar to debating how long the chain is on a closed room and whether it allows someone to lock it or unlock it from the outside. But knowing how Beatrice rolls, the answer has nothing to do with the chain and everything to do with the witnesses: In this case, it's that random fisherman that found the one bottle and the police that released the other.

So yeah, I believe in post-incident authorship. A lot of people here do, though not everyone.
A couple of other points:
  • We don't know how accurate the endscroll is to facts or merely "what we're told happened." In other words, we don't know if "they found Maria's jaw" is a fact or if it means "a number of identifiable teeth were found that match Maria," which could give credence to e.g. "Maria's baby teeth were used to fake her death." Thus, we don't know if being told "a fisherman found one of the bottles" actually means it happened, or if a bottle was introduced which somebody said was found by a fisherman.
  • The works at least appear to be voluminous from the descriptions. If they're only a short summary written in a brief time, then we're getting more text than the message bottles actually had. If they're long works, either they had to have been written with a lot of time to spare ahead of the incident (meaning the author knew a lot of difficult-to-pin-down details well ahead of time), or they were written well after (in which case there is at least a partial hoax going on).
  • If the message bottles were believed to be any sort of clue to the incident, why would the police seem to care so little about them? Eva does die in the stories, but that alone wouldn't be reason to reject something as having no useful clues as to potential premeditation or motive.
  • It is extremely logistically unlikely that any message bottle would ever be found by anybody anywhere, unless dozens were released (we're told at least that Land may have been; how many others were there?). If dozens were released, it becomes harder and harder to buy pre-incident authorship.
  • As Wanderer basically said, it would fit Beatrice's MO more to have the appearance of a message-in-a-bottle confession turn up than to actually do that, especially because there is no guarantee releasing a bunch of bottles will work. Beatrice likes faking miracles with testimony to back it up and relies far less on chance and luck than she claims to. She can't control when the bottles are found either; maybe one will be found a hundred years from now, what good would that be? However, if she fakes it, she can guarantee it will work merely by having sufficiently hard-to-trace stories and a few people willing to lie.
Basically, it's easier to bribe a fisherman and a couple police officers than it is to trust that two message bottles will survive a typhoon and explosion and both be found and published within a few years of the incident, and that the finders will actually try to release them. Given that one group who claims to have found one are the police, it seems quite unlikely they'd release it unless someone could convince them to do so. The only two reasons I can think of for that is that they believe the bottle has absolutely no relevance (which is absurd), or someone was sufficiently able to influence that release.

That, or the bottle being in police custody at all was also a lie.
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This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
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Old 2012-10-19, 14:13   Link #30919
jjblue1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theacefrehley View Post
I always imagined the bottle message stories were ready for quite some time, in case Battler came back or something. And typhoons are a normal occurrence around there, maybe?
They are. There's a siblings' discussion about how the weather is always bad when they go visiting and how they would like to change the time for the family reunion but apparently nobody had the guts to tell Kinzo this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theacefrehley View Post
And maybe Ange's roles in the stories were so small, Yasu could just erase her name and fill it with whatever, if she wrote it with a pencil. Even if Ange's absence was informed a day or two before the meeting.
I've always thought Ange wasn't in because she argued with Maria and therefore was banned from the golden land or something like that.
As the tales always end with everyone dying and reaching the Golden Land it makes sense she's not included in the cast.
It's also possible that the tales were a lot more vague on the details than what the story we read was, for example making impossible to know when it started raining exactly.

A storm is a typical excuse in horror movies to keep a bunch of people all in a place so it's a common trick to write a story (I even suggested to use it to a friend who was writing a horror story and needed an excuse to trap some people in a place years ago).

Incidentally those two coincidences came true when the Rokkenjima incident took place while it didn't come true the fact that everybody died as Eva survived.

The fact that nobody takes the tales seriously and apparently, apart from checking they weren't written by Maria, they didn't bother to check if they were written by someone else, pushes me to think that, although they gave a definite 'Rokkenjima' feeling the police didn't believe them to be relevant, one way or the other, nor that there was a need to bribe someone into saying they have found such 'irrelevant' tales (irrelevant as they doesn't really help figure out who's the real culprit in Prime as they are considered only by the witch hunters).

The fact they don't seem to push the blame on everyone (Ange doesn't wonder about why they implied person X was the culprit, nor apparently the police or the witch hunters) imply they weren't written to push the suspicions away from the true culprit but the whole point of the tales as presented seem to be to solve Beato's heart or, losely, to figure out the pain Yasu went through when Battler didn't keep his promise as this is the motive for PieceYasu to murder.

Yes, they seem to be an awfully huge amont of things to write but there's people who's famous for speed writing so it's not impossible to write them in the short amount of time prior to the incident.

All this to say... unless Ryukishi will come out and confirm either a theory or another that's not possible to say for sure if the tales were written prior or after the incident.

Everyone embraces the theory he/she likes more as they have both strong and weak points.

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Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
Why, you think he'd miss that? He does crap all over it in one part of his videos, I don't remember which one.

But be warned, it's shitty as could be, he's using just the LyricalAura's summary. Yep, he goes on and on for about half an hour without even having red the actual stuff
Well, I didn't really have the strength to watch that endless video in a language that's foreign for me so I didn't know he even went and twisted Our Confession to fit to his theory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Basically, it's easier to bribe a fisherman and a couple police officers than it is to trust that two message bottles will survive a typhoon and explosion and both be found and published within a few years of the incident, and that the finders will actually try to release them. Given that one group who claims to have found one are the police, it seems quite unlikely they'd release it unless someone could convince them to do so. The only two reasons I can think of for that is that they believe the bottle has absolutely no relevance (which is absurd), or someone was sufficiently able to influence that release.

That, or the bottle being in police custody at all was also a lie.
Or wikileak or a journalist discovered the police had also found a bottle and revealed it and the police didn't deny it because it was pointless to lie over it.

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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Considering that EP7's "motive" might be about the "crime" of writing murder stories - regardless of what Yasu may or may not have done during the conference - we can also just see Battler as the cataclyst for the Witch-Hunter movement (and screwing up the lives of Eva and Ange in the process, causing the death of the latter in EP4). But with this issue (and this red) we're deep in the realm of interpretation so I'm gonna put a big questionmark on this whole approach.
Those interpretations are also possible and interesting.

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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Hence me just choosing to "believe" into this possibility. The whole Tea Party in EP7 actually reminded me of a certain other VN. "The forest [=will of the author] is forcing all these ridiculous plot twists to reach a predetermined conclusion!" - it's definitely utterly ridiculous even for Umineko how the tea party played out. It's just driving a point home. Do we "believe" in the point, it would've happened even without Battler, even without Beatrice, and is actually not (or barely) related to them at all even in Prime, or that it was just a metaprank for Ange? Take your pick I suppose.

There's another reason why I like to believe in the way Lion's world is structured, despite not having a single basis for of it: Battler didn't come back in Lion's world, where he probably neither had a relationship with Lion akin to the one he had with Shannon nor a promise; he came back in Prime (and thus causing the gameboards). If we want, we could find one conclusion, one message that Ryukishi might've wanted to tell us with EP7-Lion-gameboard layout: Battler remembered in Prime - he came back for Shannon.

Doesn't make it right or true in any form of course, but it's a "kinda happy end" that I can accept. Sadly it's hard to combine this thought with the "Nervous Wreck Battler"-theory (= the one where Battler snaps during the Prime-murder game and is the first one to shoot, hence Eva hiding the truth from Ange and Battler losing his memory when failing to cope with this in any other way) because it takes away all the basis for the murder game to happen in the first place. Still, that theory is a personal favourite of mine as well, kudos to whoever thought of it.
Not quite. The interesting part of Ep 6 is that Battler is organizing a murder game agaisnt Beato as well. And in Ep 5 both Battler and Beato were compared to 2 shy kids who can't find the gut to declare to each other. So what if Battler came back to Shannon but found out she was engaged to George before he could tell her 'hey, I came back for you?'

What if the both of them had the bright idea to organize a murder game, Shannon with the adults as accomplices and Battler with the cousins as accomplice and the two muder games clashed against each other sending everyone into a paranoyd frenzy?


Also, the game in which Battler didn't come back and Yasu didn't play her game and yet everyone died, although might seem cruel, is, in a way, nice, as it clearly states that the murders weren't their responsibility but that they would happen regardless of what they were to do.

It's still horrible as it destroy the hope of a happy ending but, in the real world, there's no chance for it so, at least knowing they weren't to blame and that they merely, at best, provided a setting but weren't the reason behind it, can offer some sort of comfort.

Last edited by jjblue1; 2012-10-19 at 14:33.
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Old 2012-10-20, 02:20   Link #30920
Wanderer
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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Yes, I'm aware of the red - that's why I said that Nanjo's behaviour in his theory, it's just not... well it is mystery-logic, same as Shkanon. Because the red said so, he doesn't kill. I assumed that KnowNoMore wanted to make the individual stories a bit more realistic (and less dominated by the red) and less bound to such meta-reasons. Guess it's another misconeption I'll have to get rid of.
Ohhhh no. He's all about the red. Alllll about it. To him it's red, then detective's perspective, then whatever makes the most sense to him after that (which is... quite silly at times).

And to be fair, it's really quite hard to make Nanjo not be an accomplice no matter what theory you ascribe to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
But it's not the same thing. In EP5 everyone else was in on it and did their best to hide the corpses from Erika (the detective), plus there kinda were hints of fake deaths all over the place.
Nono, I was thinking you were joking about KnownNoMore's theory for the first twilight of EP5, which I find more... um... silly than his EP1 first twilight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theacefrehley View Post
I always imagined the bottle message stories were ready for quite some time, in case Battler came back or something. And typhoons are a normal occurrence around there, maybe?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
They are. There's a siblings' discussion about how the weather is always bad when they go visiting and how they would like to change the time for the family reunion but apparently nobody had the guts to tell Kinzo this.
But we're not just talking about predicting that a typhoon would come during or around the family conference, we're talking about predicting that a typhoon would arrive on the afternoon of the first day of the conference between ~3:30PM and ~5PM. Is that a regular occurrence? In other words, even if we assume a typhoon will come, it's still ridiculous. If you consider the typhoon to last 36 hours, it would affect the conference if it started any time on October 3rd or October 4th, or in the morning of October 5th. That's a 60 hour span. However, the timing of the typhoon's arrival in the story is narrowed down to a 1-2 hour period. If you do the math, the chance of guessing the timing of the typhoon's arrival in that period of time is around 2-3%. And this is if you assume a typhoon even comes at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theacefrehley View Post
And maybe Ange's roles in the stories were so small, Yasu could just erase her name and fill it with whatever, if she wrote it with a pencil. Even if Ange's absence was informed a day or two before the meeting.
That's not easy. It's hard to imagine that Ange would have a role that small because if Ange were there then her family's behavior would be completely different. This would be especially significant given that Battler is the viewpoint character and, as her brother, watching over her would be a central concern of his. And making these changes would be exceedingly difficult; Beatrice wasn't using Microsoft Word.

Basically, these are the kinds of awkward arguments I was talking about before; it's searching for a silly gap in the closed room, like saying maybe the chain was set from the outside or maybe they used small bombs. Sure, maybe it's possible, but it's probably not the right way to think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
The fact that nobody takes the tales seriously and apparently, apart from checking they weren't written by Maria, they didn't bother to check if they were written by someone else, pushes me to think that, although they gave a definite 'Rokkenjima' feeling the police didn't believe them to be relevant, one way or the other, nor that there was a need to bribe someone into saying they have found such 'irrelevant' tales (irrelevant as they doesn't really help figure out who's the real culprit in Prime as they are considered only by the witch hunters).
Preposterous. People do not, all on a whim, write stories about the murder of all their friends and family on a certain day, bottle them, and throw them into the ocean... only to have those people to happen to die on that very day for completely unrelated reasons. If it was pre-incident, which the police thought it was (at least as the story goes), then it's an obvious confession by the killer. There's no way that they would think it was anything but eminently relevant, even if they don't understand it well.

And I don't know why you assume the police didn't investigate the writing. If they did, they would do it discretely in the first place. And if we go by your interpretation, since Ootsuki didn't mention it, the Witch Hunters themselves also did not check for other peoples' signatures.
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