North Korea Situation

[Jaden]

Yea, and said minister called that tweet a "declaration of war".

It'd be funny if Trump suddenly bombed the shit out of North Korea, and when world leaders denounce his surprise attack, he'd just say "lol I DOW'd on Twitter, was that not okay?"

I guess if you want to get technical, the US already declared war back in the 50s and there's only been a long ceasefire since.

[SeijiSensei]

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/w...-1054832707644

A disturbing conversation with Joe Cirincione, a long-time researcher on nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy. Useful historical parallels are included as well.

[MisaoFan]

This is my first post concerning North Korea and I've been searching articles about that country for years. I'd like to support peaceful reunification under South Korean rule but in what means could make for it to happen? Will there be another six-party talk to finally make it effective?

What's funny is that every partially recognized countries that are recognized by United States aren't recognized by North Korea and vice-versa. How so?

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by MisaoFan

This is my first post concerning North Korea and I've been searching articles about that country for years. I'd like to support peaceful reunification under South Korean rule but in what means could make for it to happen? Will there be another six-party talk to finally make it effective?

What's funny is that every partially recognized countries that are recognized by United States aren't recognized by North Korea and vice-versa. How so?

Peaceful reunification?

Maybe, maybe if someone successfully assassinates the Kim family.

That's about it, and even that's more of an outside chance than a dependable tactic.

I'll be frank, the last three US Presidents dropped the ball when it came to North Korea.

There are no good options left. North Korea is a rational actor, but their leadership has enormous risks if the status quo remains. The same for any attempts at liberalization. Therefor a policy of confrontation and an attempt to extort money from South Korea, Japan, and even the US or China is potentially a rational move. Up to and including a limited nuclear attack on another nation to demonstrate credibility of their threats. High risk, but high reward. If not acting carries the same high risk, why not go for the high reward option?

Additionally, the longer the US delays military action against North Korea the stronger North Korea's position becomes.

At this point I have come to the reluctant conclusion that the least risky action for the US to take is a first strike nuclear attack against North Korea.

If a nuclear attack by North Korea is inevitable, and I have become convinced that it is, then the only rational move left is to attack first before North Korea is ready for a nuclear war. That is basic nuclear war game theory.

Additionally, such an aggressive action as using nuclear weapons in the attack would probably dissuade China and Russia from intervening militarily (instead they would reap the propaganda benefits of framing the event as an act of American nuclear aggression).

The most likely outcome of such an action is millions of dead North Koreans. Radioactive fallout on South Korea and Japan - but likely only to cause higher rates of cancer rather than direct radioactive deaths. It would also result in the complete collapse of North Korea, and reunification with South Korea.

There is significant risk that North Korea might be able to respond with artillery shelling of Seoul, killing a million South Koreans, but the risk of this is much smaller than if an attack on North Korea was limited to conventional weapons.

The main cost to the US would be diplomatic in nature, but even the diplomatic fallout would not be all bad. It would certainly make other countries afraid of the US in a way that nothing else would.

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

C.) The Kim line are assholes.

I mean really, China's been treating them relatively well (well, considering how China treats everyone else), and look how grateful they are. The idea that they wouldn't act out without provacation is far fetched to say the least.

It is much like Muslim Extremism . Yea, no doubt the great powers made the problem worse but at the same time a quick look at their ideology makes it pretty obvious that they do not want peace to begin with and what they really want is an excuse to start shit.

Considering that they used nerve gas to assassinate Kim Jong-Un's brother, and did so in a public airport, risking the lives of thousands of people, in one of the few nations to have friendly relations with them - I think it's pretty much beyond doubt that North Korea is not going to play nice no matter how much people try to appease them.

It's pretty clear that the goal here is to gain an unassailable position, allowing them to threaten nuclear devastation.

Either so they can demand danegeld from the rest of the world, or just so that they can attack and conquer South Korea while threatening the destruction of all US major cities to prevent the US from intervening.

I suspect that the danegeld is the main motivator actually. Afraid that the money from the Sunshine policy and Clinton's deal with them gave them a taste for extorted money. Rather than learning that cooperation is better than conflict, I think they learned that threats gets you money.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Sackett

Additionally, such an aggressive action as using nuclear weapons in the attack would probably dissuade China and Russia from intervening militarily (instead they would reap the propaganda benefits of framing the event as an act of American nuclear aggression).

A nuclear attack on North Korea will trigger a Chinese intervention. The Chinese (and Russians) won't just sit there and accept having their territory radioactively contaminated. The outrage among the Chinese population if Chinese people die from radioactive fallout caused by an American nuclear first strike will be beyond what you can imagine right now. What you suggest here is pure insanity.

[The Green One]

Dissuade action from China and Russia? Or provoke it to stop trigger happy nuclear America who would of just proven they're willing to fire first. If they see America pre-emptively nuke an enemy first, what's to stop them from doing it again? It might just spook them to fire their own nukes first on us to stop us from possibly nuking them.

Then bam, Nuclear WW3 and the end of the world.

[Key Board]

China to shut down North Korean companies (within its territory?)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41431057

[MisaoFan]

I have two questions to add?

1. Why does North Korea hate the rest of the world, given that the media is almost entirely made locally and rarely shows news about the outside world? Is it because they're afraid of American influence that dominates the rest of the world?

2. Is nuclear freezing very possible for North Korea? USA might do the same too as my sister had said.

[Eisdrache]

By North Korea, do you mean the government or the population?

[MisaoFan]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

By North Korea, do you mean the government or the population?

The country generally, but especially the govt.

[Top Sergeant]

Originally Posted by Jaden

I guess if you want to get technical, the US already declared war back in the 50s and there's only been a long ceasefire since.

Yes the war has never ended. The US declared war after the North Korean army launched an invasion into South Korea and dang near wiped out the US occupation forces still there since the end of WWII.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by MisaoFan

The country generally, but especially the govt.

Korea was a colony of Japan in WW2 but after the Japanese capitulation in 1945 the nation was occupied in the north by the Soviets and in the south by the US. Although it was initially planned to unite the two areas again, the negotiations between the two parties never reached a result until 1947. The US brought the matter before the UN which the Soviets saw as a breach of their agreement to find a solution between them only and therefore didn't participate in any conferences of the UN. The following year the south held elections which the north answered with the founding of the DRPK with Kim Il Sung as leader. Both sides saw themselves as the legitimate ruler of both parts and made known that they would involve their armies if necessary.

In 1950 the north invaded the south, starting the Korean war. The Soviets had trained their troops and supported with large amounts of weaponry. Initially extremely successful and occupying almost the entire south, three months after the beginning the south with help of American troops (the army was about 90% American) was able to fend off the invaders and push back even beyond the 38th parallel in September 1950, almost reaching the Chinese border in December. China feared that these troops would eventually cross into their territory and entered the conflict on North Korea's side, pushing the armies back until the initial border on the 38th parallel where they fought in a stalemate.

Almost every substantial building in North Korea was destroyed, which is why the DRPK harbors a deep resentment against America. Of course the South was destroyed just as much. Seoul itself changed hands four times. In 1953 both sides agreed to a ceasefire and establishing a demilitarized zone which still exists up to this day.

After the end of the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea became increasingly isolated. Thus they redoubled their efforts for nuclear and missile weaponry. Over the next years North and South Korea had numerous smaller and bigger conflicts. After the 9/11 attacks then president George W. Bush declared North Korea as part of the axis of evil.

North Korea hates the west and America specifically because of their history in the Korean war. The regime blames them for their sanctions and economical woes, painting them as an ever present threat able to invade them at any point if not met with constant resistance. This is indoctrinated into the general population who has been isolated from outside news since the ceasefire. Sixty years of having the state tell you about the outside danger (and executing anyone who opposes them) will turn anyone into a loyal supporter. It should be said however that the government is well aware about the outside world but if that would ever spread to the people, their dictatorship would collapse quickly. The government is going to extreme lengths to prevent any such thing of happening. In other words the government are the bad guys while the populace simply doesn't know better.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by MisaoFan

1. Why does North Korea hate the rest of the world, given that the media is almost entirely made locally and rarely shows news about the outside world? Is it because they're afraid of American influence that dominates the rest of the world?

Somewhat yes, but mostly no. What would exposure to the outside world, even the world as near as Seoul, show to the citizens of the DPRK? Affluence far beyond their imagination. K-Pop. A vision of life entirely unlike what those living north of the 38th parallel have ever experienced.

The Kims cannot allow these images to spread within their domain.

Now as to the relationship with the US, Eisdrache's excellent piece above provides a good review of the historical details. I agree that the root causes of the conflict go back to the Korean War. But I don't think that's the only reason why America is the perennial boogeyman in DPRK propaganda. Satanizing the US has served the Kim family well for three generations. Everything wrong about North Korea is the Americans' fault.

For an insight into the role played by the US in North Korean culture, I give you this performance by what I understand to be Kim's favorite musical group, the all-female Moranbong Band. You'll see quite an array of DPRK functionaries dancing in the aisles as the ladies on stage celebrate their country's missile program targeting the US. Someone should tell the Band that if your number ends with the destruction of the planet (at 4:19), there's no need for an encore.

YouTube

https://youtu.be/ADN0H6MREHA

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

2. Is nuclear freezing very possible for North Korea? USA might do the same too as my sister had said.

The "freeze" was an idea current in the 1980's when America through NATO deployed IRBMs and cruise missiles with nuclear warheads along the border with the Warsaw Pact nations. Since then the US and first the USSR, and later Russia, have substantially reduced their strategic weapons and Europe remains, I believe, still free of those shorter range missiles as well.

North Korea will not curtail its nuclear weapons program. Continuing their development gives Kim more power on the world stage than any other poor country. To abandon the program now would be an enormous blow to the "prestige" of the DPRK and the Kim family.

[Key Board]

We're at the brink of a nuclear disaster now

[Ithekro]

What did who do now?

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

What did who do now?

Either it's this or this.

He's basically shitting on everything his 3 predecessors have done on the topic of North Korea, and the message to read between the lines is that he wants to launch the first strike like an asshole.

[MrTerrorist]

Hackers from North Korea are reported to have stolen a large cache of military documents from South Korea, including a plan to assassinate North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un.

[AntonKutovoi]

Originally Posted by MrTerrorist

Hackers from North Korea are reported to have stolen a large cache of military documents from South Korea, including a plan to assassinate North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un.

But does this plan involves James Franco and Seth Rogen?

[AnimeFan188]

North Korea May Test A Nuke In Pacific Because
Their Underground Site Is Crumbling:

"As we have mentioned recently, North Korea's mountainous Punggye-ri nuclear test
site has experienced a series of smaller but significant earthquakes in recent weeks
that geologists believe are indicative of the huge caverns created by nuclear
detonations falling in on themselves. Satellite imagery has also show large
deformations and landslides in the area. This has led to fears of a major radiation
release from the site that could endanger people living in the region, including most
notably those living on the Korean Peninsula and across the country's northern border,
in nearby China.

It is thought that another nuclear test at the site could be "suicidal" for the regime,
not just due to the instability of geological formations in the test area, but also due to
weakening deeper down along key fault lines that traverse the area. There are even
concerns that further underground nuclear detonations, especially ones as powerful as
North Korea's September 3rd thermonuclear weapon test, which had an estimated
yield of some 140kt, could result in a catastrophic eruption of North Korea's sacred
Mount Paektu."

See:

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...e-is-crumbling