[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[chad001]

Ugh logic error's really are errors in logic.

For the record, I heard that Battler and Beato get together at the the end, is that true?

[Kylon99]

In a sense they did. Are you sure you want to be spoiled on the game though?

[TsundereCake]

Originally Posted by chad001

For the record, I heard that Battler and Beato get together at the the end, is that true?

Spoiler for end of arc spoilers:

Battler and the "new" Beato get married at the end of Ep. 6, yes.

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I don't disagree with you, but I wasn't talking about who was getting targetted.

I'm trying to say that no one really has anything convincing to get 35 people to play dead in all episodes. Something 'greater' must be at work here. I was responding to:

Something greater? For the siblings (excluding Krauss) revealing Kinzo's living status is incredibly important, as they could request financial aid from Kinzo (even though they doubt his existence, it is a possible situation) or in the scenario where they force Krauss to admit Kinzo is dead, blackmail him for money. I'll list off the people on the island, and why they'd agree:
Krauss - Most unlikely to agree, but might have no choice. Refusing to "participate in such a ridiculous notion" is basically admitting that he can't because it would endanger the project of hiding Kinzo's death.
Natsuhi - Same reasons as Krauss. Still, it is shown that when she retires early because of headaches, she is either very good at acting or is completely unaware of the plot.
Eva - Anything to force Krauss' defeat. She knows her husband needs money.
Hideyoshi - As the apparent "nice guy" of Umineko, he might be reluctant to participate at first, but he does need the money.
Rudolf - He has a family to support. He needs the money more than anyone else on the island. As well, he completely trusts his wife, who is the most likely to organize something like this, in my opinion.
Kyrie - Understands how much Rudolf needs money, and has shown she's willing to dabble in dark businesses to help him get the money. As a intellectual genius, I highly suspect her of easily scheming something like this.
Rosa - As much as she hates/loves Maria, she needs to support her. Unless she gets the money, she might be in serious trouble.
Jessica - Enigma to me. She loves her parents very much, so I can't see her faking her death in a scheme against them. Unless she is not aware that the scheme would cause them trouble.
George - Understanding his father needs money, he might agree to go along with the scheme. Of course, if he's the murder mastermind, it would give him easy access to the faked corpses.
Battler - Understanding that Rudolf needs the money to support his little sister, Battler might agree to go along with the scheme, but other than that, Battler is almost as much of an enigma as Jessica is.
Maria - Would agree to anything Rosa would say, or if her Beatrice is among the schemers, she would listen to her. She wouldn't even need to know why. She'd just blindly trust them.
Servants - Opinions are irrelevant.
Nanjo - Never fakes his death, but I suspect he's in on the plot. They need him to falsely confirm the "corpses" as dead.

[Escargotage]

So, I read that on Erika's page on the Umineko Wiki that in the past

Spoiler for EP6:

her detective skills caused her to discover her lover was having an affair, making her very bitter.

Is this mentioned in EP6, since I don't recall any mention of it in EP5.

And also,

Spoiler for EP6:

After the true nature of her fate is brought to light (she did wash up onto Rokkenjima, but she was dead, having drowned in the ocean), she fades from existence and is ultimately removed from the story.

Can anyone confirm this? I thought her fate was just left open, as in, it wasn't stated outright that she washed up on Rokkenjima at all and her corpse was just floating around in the ocean.

[Jan-Poo]

I... don't think such claims can be done with 100% certainty.

first off, I always assumed that the unfaithful lover was Erika's dad and not her boyfriend. So basically what I think is that Erika was remembering a situation involving her parents. It is very very ambiguous, but I believe my interpretation is correct, because the situation described fits more with adult behaviors.

And the last one is just made up. There is absolutely nothing that say Erika did wash up on the island. The only thing we know is that a girl named Erika Furudo did fall from a pleasure boat on the same day of the fateful Ushiromiya family meeting.
That led fanatic "witch hunters" to speculate that Erika washed up in the island and was caught in the incident that killed all the Ushiromiya (minus 2). But no official information proved or disproved this theory.

[J the Drafter]

Something that bugs me: if there is a plot to fake people's deaths, and Battler can be chosen to participate in this plot, how come Beatrice never told a story where Battler was asked to fake his death? It would have helped Battler understand the story.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

Something greater? For the siblings (excluding Krauss) revealing Kinzo's living status is incredibly important, as they could request financial aid from Kinzo (even though they doubt his existence, it is a possible situation) or in the scenario where they force Krauss to admit Kinzo is dead, blackmail him for money.

I'm not sure if it's merely his living status. I think it might be Kinzo's will. But definitely I think only Kinzo or something about him would have the power over almost everyone on the gameboard.

Originally Posted by J the Drafter

Something that bugs me: if there is a plot to fake people's deaths, and Battler can be chosen to participate in this plot, how come Beatrice never told a story where Battler was asked to fake his death? It would have helped Battler understand the story.

So, Battler is purposely never chosen for any of the twilights, if you don't include EP6 where he himself acted as gamemaster. (I'm figuring that Battler in control in the meta-world means the Beatrice faction in the game is going under new plans led by Piece-Battler himself...) His chances of never being chosen for a twilight in 5 games is 0.165%, I think. Yes, that's 0.165 percent chance, not 16.5% chance. Astronomically low.

So I thought of the whole thing, from the fakes to the real murdering to be some kind of Battler show. That's pretty much what was said on the meta level about why Beatrice was doing this too, since it wasn't about revenge or terror.

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I'm not sure if it's merely his living status. I think it might be Kinzo's will. But definitely I think only Kinzo or something about him would have the power over almost everyone on the gameboard.



So, Battler is purposely never chosen for any of the twilights, if you don't include EP6 where he himself acted as gamemaster. (I'm figuring that Battler in control in the meta-world means the Beatrice faction in the game is going under new plans led by Piece-Battler himself...) His chances of never being chosen for a twilight in 5 games is 0.165%, I think. Yes, that's 0.165 percent chance, not 16.5% chance. Astronomically low.

So I thought of the whole thing, from the fakes to the real murdering to be some kind of Battler show. That's pretty much what was said on the meta level about why Beatrice was doing this too, since it wasn't about revenge or terror.

Right, so let me say this. All the adults, sans Krauss and Natsuhi, gather about a week or two before the conference. Like in the gathering, Kyrie says this:

Spoiler for Size:

"Alright, let me say this. I'm fairly confident that Father is already dead-in fact, I suspect he's been dead since before the last family conference."
Insert various murmurs of surprise from the other adults (except Rudolf) here.
"I think Krauss is in a situation where if he was to announce the death of Father, it would be incredibly inconvenient for him. So he has been pretending that Father is just never available, so that his existence is ambiguous. Now I am aware that we're all in various financial problems," Eva, Hideyoshi and Rosa all grimace here, "So I present this plan: force Krauss to admit that Father is dead, and have him reveal Father's will."
Eva/Hideyoshi/Rosa: "Kyrie, how do you plan to get him to admit the fact though?"
Kyrie: "Krauss has some strong pride as the next head of the family," Eva makes a face at this, "but he hasn't inherited Father's ability to deal with difficult situations. So we force him into one, where his strength fails and he admits defeat. A situation that he can not comprehend how to deal with... a murder on the island, perhaps? As he tries to deal with a murderer sneaking around on the island, he will become more and more unable to cope, and all we have to do is suggest he goes to Father for help. Eventually, the pressure will get to him, and he will crack, admitting that Father is dead."
E/H/R: "It might work, but surely you don't mean to actually kill someone, do you?"
Kyrie: "Of course not. All we have to do is fake our deaths, or maybe order the servants to assist us as well."

Allowing some variation, I'm pretty sure this would cause all the adults (excluding Krauss and Natsuhi) to agree. I think Kyrie uses her chessboard mind to plot out the scheme. Krauss is like the king of the opposing side; her side wants to capture him/make him surrender.

The reason I never mention a will whenever I theorize is because I doubt there even is a will. We've only ever seen Kinzo writing a will in one of the Episodes, and unless that's a flashback scene (which unfortunately, we have no way to determine), it's a fantasy scene, which makes the will an uncertain existence. I haven't seen any other proof that Kinzo ever wrote a will (unless you call the Epitaph a will), so I doubt it's existence.

"Because of your sin, people die." Or something like that. We've known since Episode 4 that at least some of the deaths that happen on the island are because of Battler's sin. It isn't hard to link it to the possibility that the murderer is killing to show Battler something.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

So, Battler is purposely never chosen for any of the twilights, if you don't include EP6 where he himself acted as gamemaster. (I'm figuring that Battler in control in the meta-world means the Beatrice faction in the game is going under new plans led by Piece-Battler himself...) His chances of never being chosen for a twilight in 5 games is 0.165%, I think. Yes, that's 0.165 percent chance, not 16.5% chance. Astronomically low.

Chance of Battler surviving the first twilight in n games = (2/3)^n
1 game: 67%
2 games: 44%
3 games: 30%
4 games: 20%
5 games: 13%
6 games: 9%

With 18 people, it's expected that 2.4 people will survive the first twilight in five episodes, and an expected 1.6 will survive the first twilight in six episodes. So there's nothing unusual, probabilistically speaking, about Battler and Nanjo surviving the first twilight in games 1-5.

[Renall]

It is slightly more statistically unusual for both to survive five times in a row, though it is far from impossible.

[rogerpepitone]

No, it's not statistically unusual. With each individual person having a 13% chance of surviving all 5 games, there's a fairly good chance that some 2 of them will survive all 5.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Chance of Battler surviving the first twilight in n games = (2/3)^n
1 game: 67%
2 games: 44%
3 games: 30%
4 games: 20%
5 games: 13%
6 games: 9%

With 18 people, it's expected that 2.4 people will survive the first twilight in five episodes, and an expected 1.6 will survive the first twilight in six episodes. So there's nothing unusual, probabilistically speaking, about Battler and Nanjo surviving the first twilight in games 1-5.

No, that's not the right calculation. That's only if you consider Battler surviving all first twilights of EP1-5. What we want is the probability of Battler surviving all 9 twilights in all games.

13 people to choose to kill from out of 18 people which in EP1-4 means the probability of him surviving is therefore 5/18 in EP1-4. In EP5 since only 7 people were killed then his survivability is 11/18. So the formula is:

5/18^4 * 11/18 = 0.00364 or so. About 0.364% chance for Battler to survive.

If you want the probability for any one person to survive from EP1-5, then knock off EP1 as a factor results in:
5/18^3 * 11/18 = 1.31% chance.

By the way, earlier, I just went 5/18^5, assuming EP5 would've went to 13 people but then technically speaking the game ended at 7 people. So it's better to only assume the probabilities we're actually given. 5/18^5 is the 0.001654ish number I got earlier.



By the way, what is the probability that Battler and Nanjo surviving first twilights for EP1-5? And the probability of any two people surviving 5 first twilights? Writing the Choose formula as nCk (n Choose k), I think the formula is:

Probability of not choosing either Battler or Nanjo
16C6 / 18C6 (Number of ways to choose 6 without B&N / Number of ways to choose 6 over all 18 people)
8008 / 18564 = 0.43137

8008 / 18564 ^ 5 = 1.4937% Probability of not choosing either Battler or Nanjo in all 5 games
8008 / 18564 ^ 4 = 3.46% Probability of not choosing two people in all 5 games

Can anyone double check the math here?

[FredericaBernkastel]

Originally Posted by Renall

Are you suggesting the culprit is killing out of love?

Obviously. 'Without Love.. The Truth Cannot be Seen.' <-- Is Massively subverted.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by J the Drafter

Something that bugs me: if there is a plot to fake people's deaths, and Battler can be chosen to participate in this plot, how come Beatrice never told a story where Battler was asked to fake his death? It would have helped Battler understand the story.

If Battler was told to fake his death he would have to be rekilled later. And if Beatrice set up a game where that happened in the question arcs he'd automatically know who the murderer is. He'd also know about the fake death plan. After that there is no reason for Battler to reason who the culprit is because he'd already know. It works the same way if there are no fake deaths. Like for example If Battler was murdered by the Culprit or they confessed to him at the first twilight. He'd know who the murderer is from the meta world and then solving the next game would be a cake walk.

[Laserworm]

Spoiler for For those who have yet to clear Ep6:

I'm don't know how many others feel this way, but I for one am sorry to see Erika die. I'm going to miss her and her massive screwing with the game.

Maybe she will get brought back in ep7 like Beato in ep6. For some odd reason I hope this happens.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by J the Drafter

Something that bugs me: if there is a plot to fake people's deaths, and Battler can be chosen to participate in this plot, how come Beatrice never told a story where Battler was asked to fake his death? It would have helped Battler understand the story.

Most likely, she can't. Remember how, under Bern's deal, Ange was forbidden from identifying herself to Battler? Lambdadelta probably had a similar condition in her deal with Beato.

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by Laserworm

Spoiler for For those who have yet to clear Ep6:

I'm don't know how many others feel this way, but I for one am sorry to see Erika die. I'm going to miss her and her massive screwing with the game.

Maybe she will get brought back in ep7 like Beato in ep6. For some odd reason I hope this happens.

That's the only part about EP6 that I'm looking forward to.

[Laserworm]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

That's the only part about EP6 that I'm looking forward to.

: ( Erika didn't deserve death I don't think. Maybe some punches to the face. I wouldn't mind doing it either, seeing what she did to my fav characters. XD but I will miss her, she was a cool evil pawn.

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by Laserworm

: ( Erika didn't deserve death I don't think. Maybe some punches to the face. I wouldn't mind doing it either, seeing what she did to my fav characters. XD but I will miss her, she was a cool evil pawn.

Erika was more irritating to me than cool... some characters can entertain me while being evil... Erika is not one of them. In my eyes, she deserves worse than death.