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Old 2020-07-06, 07:06   Link #841
The Green One
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Every day I'm hearing stories about groups of people ignoring social distancing. It's like they just don't care. Fuck other people, I don't care what happens to them seems to be their mantra. It's just depressing to read.
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Old 2020-07-06, 09:22   Link #842
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I suspect it's an ideological issue for some people.

Check this from 2 months ago:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...r-mask-dispute

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Old 2020-07-06, 09:58   Link #843
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53306280

Xu Zhangrun has been disappeared after criticizing the CCP handling of the outbreak one too many times.
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Old 2020-07-07, 01:25   Link #844
OH&S
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
Reacting strongly to 100 cases might seem like an over-reaction but it's really to nip an issue in the bud, before it exponentially grows to a real problem. If people aren't currently socially distancing then it could grow very quickly. (I don't know the actual local situation there, I'm just talking in general).
191 new cases reported today in Victoria (+69 from yesterday); the highest single day in Australia since the pandemic began.

In addition to the border closure, Melbourne will be undergoing a 6 week lockdown (Stage 3 restrictions - stay home except for work, essential services, medical treatment or school) from midnight tonight.

EDIT: Victoria reimposes lockdowns on metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire as coronavirus cases rise by record amount

We are so screwed. If those who are infected have gotten out of the state before the border closed then Australia's going to be hit hard in a couple of weeks.
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Old 2020-07-07, 05:26   Link #845
kari-no-sugata II
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Originally Posted by OH&S View Post
191 new cases reported today in Victoria (+69 from yesterday); the highest single day in Australia since the pandemic began.

In addition to the border closure, Melbourne will be undergoing a 6 week lockdown (Stage 3 restrictions - stay home except for work, essential services, medical treatment or school) from midnight tonight.

EDIT: Victoria reimposes lockdowns on metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire as coronavirus cases rise by record amount

We are so screwed. If those who are infected have gotten out of the state before the border closed then Australia's going to be hit hard in a couple of weeks.
That'll depend on how good the testing and tracing system is... and how people behave. If those who got infected in the state and have since left isolate themselves properly then it should be okay...

But yeah, in some ways it gets a lot easier as the infection rates become truly small but in some ways it gets harder as the more relaxed people are and the less social distancing they are doing the easier it is for a new outbreak to expand rapidly.
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Old 2020-07-07, 10:47   Link #846
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News coming from Brazil says that Bolsonaro is confirmed to have COVID-19.
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Old 2020-07-07, 16:46   Link #847
Guardian Enzo
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Originally Posted by Yu Ominae View Post
News coming from Brazil says that Bolsonaro is confirmed to have COVID-19.
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Old 2020-07-08, 03:39   Link #848
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The comments I'm hearing about this particular case are either A) It'll be fatal to him or B) If he survives, he really will downplay it as "see? I told you it was just a flu"

No Boris Johnson moment from hi apparently...
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Old 2020-07-08, 04:27   Link #849
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You guys are aware that these people can get the finest medical treatment available, price be damned, right?

That's more than I can say for most of my patients.
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Old 2020-07-08, 07:34   Link #850
Guardian Enzo
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That helps the odds, but it doesn't make them 100%. It's been pretty reliably reported that things got pretty touch and go with Johnson, and I have no doubt he was getting the best care money can buy.
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Old 2020-07-08, 08:45   Link #851
kari-no-sugata II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
That helps the odds, but it doesn't make them 100%. It's been pretty reliably reported that things got pretty touch and go with Johnson, and I have no doubt he was getting the best care money can buy.
For what it's worth, he was on a "normal" NHS ward, not on private health care. No doubt his case got a lot more care and attention than normal though.

But yes, it was serious for him. To the extent that serious preparations/thought was being put into what to do if he did in fact die.

It's not like he had a perfect recovery either. He said that his eyesight has been worse since then for example. He's also been keen to help reduce obesity since then too.
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Old 2020-07-08, 11:41   Link #852
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Warning of serious brain disorders in people with mild coronavirus symptoms.

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Its a concern if some hidden epidemic could occur after Covid where youre going to see delayed effects on the brain, because there could be subtle effects on the brain and slowly things happen over the coming years, but its far too early for us to judge now, Zandi said.
inb4 we all turn to zombies.
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Old 2020-07-08, 12:51   Link #853
SeijiSensei
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US cases are skyrocketing while deaths from COVID have levelled off. Because of the lag between cases and deaths, it's hard to know what to make of these figures. However using just a simple model for deaths based on caseloads at 14, 28, and 42 days prior indicates that deaths should have risen sharply after July 1st, but the actual death toll was lower.



https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...es-and-deaths/
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Old 2020-07-08, 13:42   Link #854
kari-no-sugata II
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^ I don't want to try to debug individual models but perhaps it's too simple or overfitted or whatever.

I did see this thread, though don't ask me about accuracy of the numbers:
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/statu...93940128268289
Quote:
All data from @covid19tracking

All using 7 day moving avg (because daily data bouncy)

And all comparing today (7/7) vs. exactly 2 weeks ago (6/23)

What do we see? Some concerning numbers

I look at 5 states with the highest number of new cases / population (7-day rolling avg).

Again, comparing today to 14 days ago.

Alphabetically:

1. Arizona:
Testing up 12%
Cases up 36%
Current Hospitalizations up 66%
Dally deaths up 79%

2. Florida:
Testing up 80%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps not available
Daily deaths up 37%

3. Louisiana:
Testing up 15%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps up 50%
Daily deaths up 7%

4. South Carolina:
Testing up 56%
Cases up 65%
Current Hosps up 76%
Daily deaths up 62%

5. Texas:
Testing up 41%
Cases up 86%
Current Hosps: up 140%
Daily deaths up 52%

And what about next 5 states?

Georgia, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, and California.
They all have big increases in hospitalizations

And 4 out of 5 have increased deaths...all but Georgia
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Old 2020-07-08, 14:17   Link #855
SeijiSensei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
^ I don't want to try to debug individual models but perhaps it's too simple or overfitted or whatever.
I know it's simple. It also "explains" 99+% of the variance in deaths. And I don't really need any help "debugging" my models. Trust me, I've been analyzing data for decades, and I know what I'm doing.
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Old 2020-07-08, 16:23   Link #856
Anh_Minh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
US cases are skyrocketing while deaths from COVID have levelled off. Because of the lag between cases and deaths, it's hard to know what to make of these figures. However using just a simple model for deaths based on caseloads at 14, 28, and 42 days prior indicates that deaths should have risen sharply after July 1st, but the actual death toll was lower.



https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...es-and-deaths/
So what does it mean? Better treatment, improved testing, or horrible surprise in a few days?
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Old 2020-07-08, 16:25   Link #857
GDB
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Wasn't there something about a lot more young people catching it in the US recently? Maybe that's related to the lower death count in some capacity.
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Old 2020-07-08, 21:05   Link #858
SeijiSensei
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Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
So what does it mean? Better treatment, improved testing, or horrible surprise in a few days?
I attribute it mostly to the changing demographics of who is being infected and better treatment.

Also a substantial portion of the earlier deaths have occurred in prisons and in facilities for the elderly. As of a week or so ago, half the deaths in Florida had occurred in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. These kinds of institutional epidemics still matter, but there are more people becoming infected from mask-less public interactions, and more of them are younger.
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Old 2020-07-08, 21:34   Link #859
Guardian Enzo
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Hospitalizations and deaths are already spiking in AZ, FL, and TX. They always lag positive test results and total cases. We're seeing a repeat of what happened in the NE two months ago, except this time with governors who won't try and mitigate it.
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Old 2020-07-09, 01:17   Link #860
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Out of curiosity

Are masks and social distancing a partisan issue in other countries, or is it just an American thing.

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