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Old 2020-08-23, 20:16   Link #641
Key Board
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
The issue is the USPS sabotage and the impact it could have on Biden voters, plus general vote suppression and intimidation (as we saw in places like GA in the midterms) turned up to 11 by Trump. If this were a free and fair election there's no question Biden would win, but it won't be. And even if he does Trump will refuse to accept the results, assuming he doesn't try to cancel the election before it even happens.

Or removing their right to vote.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...mpression=true

//
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Old 2020-08-23, 20:44   Link #642
mangamuscle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
No, he doesn't.
Let's think outside the box for a moment. Richard Nixon was ousted because he commited what was tantamount to electoral fraud. What if Donald Trump is already planning to literally rig the election? He only need to hack a few machines in a few states to "transform" biden votes into trumpo votes and voila! there is no paper trail, no checksums, no protection as tough as the one used in credit cards.

I can bet you Putin will give him a hand in the machines hacking and if he asks my president, AMLO will share a life long acumen in low tech electoral rigging. <jojo>now you are going to say "That can't happen in the U S A !!!</jojo>
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Old 2020-08-23, 23:32   Link #643
Guardian Enzo
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I have no doubt that could happen in the USA. I just feel like Trump's style is more brownshirt and less subversion, though.
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Old 2020-08-23, 23:47   Link #644
Johnny Dy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
Biden
Gramps ftw!
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Old 2020-08-24, 11:06   Link #645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
Just mentioning this for anyone who doesn't follow this closely but for the 538 model, that's their prediction for the actual election that's has many days to go, not if the election was tomorrow.
That's true for the Economist model as well.

I actually give their model more credence than Silver's. Perhaps that's because I've become friendly with the Economist's data guy, G. Elliott Morris, on Twitter, but one point in its favor is that all the code and data are available at GitHub. 538's model remains proprietary.

Quote:
That being said, given how low the number of undecideds are and given how strong many voters are to motivated to vote Trump out, I'd be surprised if Biden ever loses his lead unless something really crazy happens.
Back at the end of June I reran the simple "trends, methods, and house effects" model I'd used in 2012 and 2016. Using the data available at the time I predicted a Biden lead of about eleven points on election day with a "confidence interval" between 9.8 and 13 points on election day. Let me quote what I wrote at the time:

"It’s hard to understate how big an eleven point lead would be. The implied two-party vote division of 55.5-45.5% would be the largest Democratic victory since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide over Barry Goldwater in 1964. Given the historical relationship between the popular and Electoral College votes, a 55.5% win in the popular vote translates to a 72% victory in the College, or a margin of 390-148 Electoral Votes."

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...ntial-polling/

Yes, I'm discounting the various nightmare scenarios about rigging and Trump staying in office past next January. I have a lot more faith in state and local election officials than most people seem to have, and I'm pretty sure the Secret Service, assisted by Federal marshals if necessary, would show him the door on January 20th. I also expect the margin of Biden's victory will be large enough to make any claims about rigging laughable.
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Old 2020-08-24, 12:49   Link #646
ramlaen
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Since many of you won't watch the RNC you can instead watch the Postmaster General reduce the latest Democrat conspiracy theory to ashes.
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Old 2020-08-24, 12:55   Link #647
SeijiSensei
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Until DeJoy puts back the mailboxes and sorting machines, I wouldn't call it a "conspiracy theory."

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Old 2020-08-24, 17:48   Link #648
Guardian Enzo
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Dejoy, fresh off perjuring himself in front of Congress. A super-reliable source.
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Old 2020-08-26, 14:37   Link #649
Sugetsu
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The US is in more trouble than I thought. People in this country have become deeply tribal in their politics to the point that many only act based on emotions, turning off their critical thinking as a result.

After watching this video, I am left wondering if there can ever be national unity any time soon.

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Old 2020-08-26, 15:40   Link #650
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
Until DeJoy puts back the mailboxes and sorting machines, I wouldn't call it a "conspiracy theory."

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When even Nate Silver throws a wet blanket over the latest Democrat conspiracy theory.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...95031765274624
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Old 2020-08-27, 17:52   Link #651
Blueknight78
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i honestly don't know what democrats are trying to accomplish by allowing all the chaos and riot happening in they cities, they are loosing support fast and give trump a big change to win the next year elections, one thing is support a pacific protest another is allow peoples goes full rampage destroying privates properties and lootering stuffs, the "locals are start to get anger over it and see nothing being done to stop it and even in some cases some concil members or mayors are giving full support to all the chaos.

they are just giving trump all the weapons and tools he need to win the election.
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Old 2020-08-27, 18:38   Link #652
Key Board
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Because things haven’t changed

Seattle PD is agitating violence again.
Police murdered another black man in Kenosha
A Trump supporter drove 20 miles to kill a protester and right wing media are rallying behind him.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg

Protest seems to be working more than voting . Look at all the policy changes and reforms trying to be pushed through since than. I don’t know how many will pass, but this would not happen if not for the protest

And now big sports are holding a strike. Good

Maybe we’ll get enough senators to do the right thing eventually
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Old 2020-08-27, 19:06   Link #653
Blueknight78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Key Board View Post
Because things haven’t changed

Seattle PD is agitating violence again.
Police murdered another black man in Kenosha
A Trump supporter drove 20 miles to kill a protester and right wing media are rallying behind him.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg

Protest seems to be working more than voting . Look at all the policy changes and reforms trying to be pushed through since than. I don’t know how many will pass, but this would not happen if not for the protest

And now big sports are holding a strike. Good

Maybe we’ll get enough senators to do the right thing eventually
the problem is which the "protester also are "killing peoples too not only white but black too" if the problem is "killing peoples" and peoples are acting like "only the other side is doing crap which the crap is all over the place from all the sides.
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Old 2020-08-28, 00:24   Link #654
Guardian Enzo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueknight78 View Post
i honestly don't know what democrats are trying to accomplish by allowing all the chaos and riot happening in they cities, they are loosing support fast and give trump a big change to win the next year elections, one thing is support a pacific protest another is allow peoples goes full rampage destroying privates properties and lootering stuffs, the "locals are start to get anger over it and see nothing being done to stop it and even in some cases some concil members or mayors are giving full support to all the chaos.

they are just giving trump all the weapons and tools he need to win the election.
I'm sure I'll regret even asking, but on what basis do you conclude the Democrats are "loosing support fast"? Biden's lead (not that it'll matter if the election is cancelled or stolen) has been steady at 8-9 points since Trump teargassed the protesters in front of St. John's Church and posed with an upside-down bible. And before that it was 6-7 points from the time he clinched the nomination. There's no indication whatsoever that the race has changed in any measurable way during either party convention and indeed, very little indication that it's changed all year.
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Old 2020-08-28, 01:05   Link #655
Blueknight78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
I'm sure I'll regret even asking, but on what basis do you conclude the Democrats are "loosing support fast"? Biden's lead (not that it'll matter if the election is cancelled or stolen) has been steady at 8-9 points since Trump teargassed the protesters in front of St. John's Church and posed with an upside-down bible. And before that it was 6-7 points from the time he clinched the nomination. There's no indication whatsoever that the race has changed in any measurable way during either party convention and indeed, very little indication that it's changed all year.
i'm not using the pools, but i'm using the news for exemple the current situation in kenosha, the "local" living peoples are already demanding the mayor do something while he is doing nothing and full supporting the full riot and destruction, some of then area already talking about fight back and we already have peoples killed (2 white peoples), that are being place in the democrats account not on trump, all the places where the protesters are not being "pacific" the local peoples are getting tired and anger of all the chaos and start to look angry to the democrats, this is a indicator which can "affect" the elections, if the democrats keep "doing nothing" and the worst in some places the only thing they are doing is "protect themselfs, while allow the riot keep going.
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Old 2020-08-28, 01:37   Link #656
Ithekro
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Basically, the majority of the rioting cities are under the control of Democratic governments (be it city, county, or state). Which was something I was questioning when some cities started having protests and riots following Trump being elected President almost four years ago. They were all in Democrat controlled cities in states that voted Clinton,...sometimes by an overwhelming majority. But they were destroying property of fellow citizens. Citizens that also likely voted for Clinton. It made no sense to me then. That the current protests are happening in mostly Democratic run cities makes me question just how well the Democrats run their areas, since, shouldn't these problems not be happening under their control?
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Old 2020-08-28, 01:39   Link #657
Guardian Enzo
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Yeah, figured as much. Forget I asked.
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Old 2020-08-28, 14:17   Link #658
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
I'm sure I'll regret even asking, but on what basis do you conclude the Democrats are "loosing support fast"? Biden's lead (not that it'll matter if the election is cancelled or stolen) has been steady at 8-9 points since Trump teargassed the protesters in front of St. John's Church and posed with an upside-down bible. And before that it was 6-7 points from the time he clinched the nomination. There's no indication whatsoever that the race has changed in any measurable way during either party convention and indeed, very little indication that it's changed all year.
The best part is how you are clinging to polls like CBS's most recent giving Biden a +10 despite Biden and Trump's in party support being within 2% and Trump having a 10 point lead with independents.

It's the same Charlie Brown with a football routine from 2016 and you can't help yourself trying to kick the ball again.
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Old 2020-08-28, 17:08   Link #659
ganbaru
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Am I the only one than id being bothered with the idea of not having any presidential debate ? The one argument used by Pelosi ( not wanting to give credibility to Trump) is dumb. Given than the same argument was used when Trump had talk with Kim Jong-un, it leave me the impression than that so-call arguments is just a placeholder to use whan they don't have anything valid ( or than could pass as valid) to say.
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Old 2020-08-28, 22:20   Link #660
GDB
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It's stupid, but based on everything else Trump has done he wouldn't debate and would just try to turn it into a rally.

Maybe if moderators did their jobs a debate could work, but they don't, so...
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