[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[luckyssol]

One thing I forgot to mention (and I can't believe Renall hasn't pointed it out yet) is that Bernkastel was the game master for episode 7. In order words, be critical of what you read.

She claims that she was not the game master for the tea party and that the events of the tea party were the real world.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by kamuinoyume

I'll admit I might have judged Asumu and Rudolf's relationship somewhat harshly, but you'll have to excuse me for saying that NO woman would ever want to be "second best!" Especially if you consider the Kyrie from the forth game, she'd hardly give up on victory and her own son for anything.

Kyrie didn't like it, but for 12 years she did put up with being second place. And she didn't give up her son; she didn't know Battler was her son.

As for why I think Krauss knew or guessed:
1) Rudolf had some sort of secret that he was unsure whether or not to reveal in the "I'll probably be killed tonight" scene. The truth about Battler's parentage is the only likely secret.
2) Remember the scene in Episode 1 when the siblings are trying to shake down Krauss? Krauss is good at learning secrets and waiting for the best time to use them.

a) How did Rudolf learn about Battler's parentage?
b) Why didn't Rudolf reveal that years ago?
c) Why was he going to reveal it that night?

Try answering these questions under the assumptions that "the switch was accidental", "Asumu did it without Rudolf's knowledge", and "Rudolf was knowingly involved in the switch".

If Krauss managed to convince Kyrie of everything, I think it quite likely that Kyrie would file for divorce, get custody of Ange, break up the business; possibly Battler would also leave him. Losing everything could, metaphorically, be "getting killed tonight". Rudolf might be weighing the possibilities "Do I gamble that Krauss has nothing, or on my ability to talk things out now?"


And the "Asumu is Ange's mother" idea strikes me as ridiculous. Could Asumu go through 9 months of pregnancy without Battler noticing?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Renall

The issue is more that as soon as Eva is dead and Ange is on her own, Battler has no reason to continue staying away if he is willing to make contact (as the argument would be he was previously unable). Even if he's Amakusa, he has every opportunity to tell her he is when they're together on the run. Unless, that is, Amakusa is also keeping him from getting to her.

And Ange's motivation to figure out the Rokkenjima mystery is to find out who took away her Brother and her parents. That motive assumes her brother is in fact dead if he's not she has no reason to pursue it. It's not just if Battler told her. If anyone told her her brother was really alive she wouldn't have the will to think about it anymore.

He may have wanted to tell her, but couldn't because he wanted her to find out the truth when he realized she was looking into it. Another issue here is if Battler is really Amakusa did he kill Ange or not?

[kamuinoyume]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

As for why I think Krauss knew or guessed:
1) Rudolf had some sort of secret that he was unsure whether or not to reveal in the "I'll probably be killed tonight" scene. The truth about Battler's parentage is the only likely secret.
2) Remember the scene in Episode 1 when the siblings are trying to shake down Krauss? Krauss is good at learning secrets and waiting for the best time to use them.

a) How did Rudolf learn about Battler's parentage?
b) Why didn't Rudolf reveal that years ago?
c) Why was he going to reveal it that night?

Try answering these questions under the assumptions that "the switch was accidental", "Asumu did it without Rudolf's knowledge", and "Rudolf was knowingly involved in the switch".

If Krauss managed to convince Kyrie of everything, I think it quite likely that Kyrie would file for divorce, get custody of Ange, break up the business; possibly Battler would also leave him. Losing everything could, metaphorically, be "getting killed tonight". Rudolf might be weighing the possibilities "Do I gamble that Krauss has nothing, or on my ability to talk things out now?"


And the "Asumu is Ange's mother" idea strikes me as ridiculous. Could Asumu go through 9 months of pregnancy without Battler noticing?

What if Krauss was the one who did the switch? After all, I did theorize that one of the siblings might have been involved (though I was leaning more towards Eva - no real basis, just thought it would be something she'd do). I'm guessing that episode 7 didn't tell us much more than Battler is Kyrie's son, so we don't really have much on what to go by.

[rogerpepitone]

As I said before, if Krauss, Eva, Kasumi, Kinzo, or most anybody were behind the switch, please explain the exact scheduling.

Did they somehow anticipate that Asumu would have a stillbirth and Kyrie would carry hers to term? If not, how did they manage to learn about it and carry everything out during the interval?

[Dlanor .A. Nox]

Spoiler for First random thought:

I don't know if anyone looked back at Ep 1 recently, but I have a new computer so I decided now would be the perfect time look back with what we all know. Anyways the first thing that stood out was Kinzo's rant right at the very beginning. In it he states that in his deal with the witch he would die with nothing, and that in the end he would get no coffin or tomb. Then he starts on his fortune and prestige and how he knows it will die with him. Now we know there is an explosion that occurs, but the date of this conversation isn't really clear. So I don't know just a random thought.

Anyways onto my second thought. The lies, whatever Episode it always happens without fail. Kanon's fake death, Rosa's "conversation" with Kinzo, The Cigarettes in Eva's room, and the majority of Episode 4. What do they exactly gain by lying?

Spoiler for Episode 1-Kanon and Nanjo:

If Kanon faked his death then he would be able to move on freely, but then Jessica thinks he's really dead. Nanjo is the biggest load of crap on that island, he is there only to keep the illusion Kinzo is still alive but he is the one who is always telling more lies too. He is probably cooperating with someone who wanted Kanon to be able to move, which is why he declares Kanon dead even though it is impossible due to Red.

Spoiler for Episode 2-Rosa:

Now this is what I'm stuck on big time. Rosa is the only heir remaining, if she survived then she would inherit everything. So why maintain the notion Kinzo is alive? What does she gain from it? For whatever reason she doesn't say a thing about it. She says she went to go tell Kinzo but we are never shown what exactly Rosa does or is told. If she claims Kinzo is alive nothing good can come of it.

Spoiler for Episode 2:

Gohda-This guy is alot more clear he's obviously afraid or a really good actor. He shows real apprehension when questioned about Kanon's assault. If I'm not mistaken he looks scared. We know he's probably being threatened, the only other solution I can think of is that he's doing that (looking scared) on purpose. But why is he too scared? If he can come out and say the truth who knows what could have happened.

Spoiler for Episode 3-The cigarette:

Dine's rules prevent that item from playing a part in the debate, but what if that thing is something else entirely? A red herring, Eva's really smart, PROBABLY smart enough to know that Hideyoshi shouldn't smoke in that room. Tells him that and does whatever it is she has to do (whether it's murdering Rosa or discussing something with her, who the hell knows it's not the point I'm making) Anyways I read something like this happening in a novel I read, the Murder on the Links. In there a cigarette is used by a detective (not the main one) to infer that people from another country really did in the victim of the book. The main one states that it's a red herring so I'm thinking that's what happens here.

Spoiler for Episode 3-Eva's only seen murder:

We all know Eva murdered Battler there is no debate on that period. But in that same book I referred to previously, two people see the victim's body, from completely different view points, they see each other and they both think that the other one did it. We seen that Eva admitted to something but we aren't sure what she's referring to do. I think that some of Bern's truth events really happened. Not all of them but some of them, manipulation or something. Anyways aside from that Eva probably thinks that Battler was part of their group, since Battler is Rudolph's son. She probably associates them with him. When he accuses her of being the culprit she may have well been referring to killing Kyrie and Rudolph. Then again all we get is Eva admitting to something, so I wouldn't take too much thought into it...
What I'm thinking is that both views are different sides of the spectrum. Episode 3 claims that Eva did it. Episode 7 claims Kyrie and Rudolph did it. Both are obviously wrong but what if a mix of the events happened? Against Eva the evidence was the cigarette, I can't read Episode 7 yet but from what I heard about claims Kyrie committed the murders. So until WH does finishes I'm pretty much up the creek without a paddle until then so I'll keep Ep 7 as minor as possible in my deductions.

Spoiler for Episode 4 Jessica's Narration:

This is where I stopped and think why are they so bent on lying. Jessica said that she was going to die, but again she says something a person who knows they are going to die wouldn't waste their time saying. She lies about the events of fighting with demons or about there being witches on the island. I'm guessing Jessica didn't think that she was going to die. She was probably threatened and told she would live if she said that to Battler. Like a person being held at gunpoint. Only after the dial was cut *bang*

Spoiler for Episode 4-Kyrie's Narration:

Kyrie-She also lies and she summarizes all the events we witness to Battler. Knowing she is going to die she also tells Battler about witches and demons. Then has a heart to heart conversation. Again Kyrie is cut off, and who knows what happens. The only thing that has a grain of truth is the fact the bodies are where she said they are. (Aside from Kanon) Sound familiar? Jessica did the same exact thing with George but was apparently not supposed to know where George was.

Spoiler for The Liar's Fates:

The lies and liar's fates are what's getting to me. Of course all the situations are different but in the end the liar meets a grim fate nontheless so why lie? Gohda is dead, Rosa dies, Kyrie dies, Jessica is shown to be dead, Kyrie again is shown to have died in the room where she made her call. Who knows what happens to Kanon in Episode 1.

I'm thinking Beatrice is like a genie. Sure she gives red truths but sometimes those reds are horribly misleading.

Spoiler for Red Truth of the Genie:

Episode 2's chapel scene is what gave me this thought in the first place. Beatrice's mistake was way in the beginning ironically enough. Beatrice said in red that the envelope given to maria has never been opened. But she doesn't clarify if it was the same one as the one in midday.
Another is denial of Battler's birth, she uses two to erase him. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born, and the one about The only one qualified to play this game is Kinzo's grandson. Failing to mention that Battler is Rudolph's son pretty much screamed genie at me. (metaphor not an actual one)
Most of Beatrice's games can be summed up with one word "Lies" Eva's and Hideyoshi's murder room in Episode 1 was not sealed (again Ep 7 solution) Aside from that we are given no reds about the actual status of the room. Only that it was impossible to do it from the outside and that it was done in that room by other people. All we have is Kanon and Genji's word, which are surprise surprise lies. My previous theory had the flawed basis of trusting Kanon and Genji. I failed to notice before that afterwards Kanon faked his death. The Red is really brutal but at the same time it's like a house of cards. If you pick apart one of the bases of the cards then it will fall. Maria could have easily locked that room near the end of Episode 1 as well, Beatrice or whoever could have told her to do it and then lie about it.
Of course it's not that I'm claiming everyone is lying that would be downright silly. But the main problem in Beatrice's game is just that "lying" she never reveals a single truth about the actual problem only the sides of the problem. Episode 2 again when the keys reached Rosa's hands they were never left her side until she gave them to Battler. The flaw is when did Rosa receive the keys?

-whew-

That took awhile...as you can see I avoided using my regular SPEECH. If you think I'm that crazy then guess AGAIN. This is similar to my Method X theory but it's different in the fact that the lie is the lock not the lock ITSELF. If there are any flaws please let me KNOW.

[kamuinoyume]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

As I said before, if Krauss, Eva, Kasumi, Kinzo, or most anybody were behind the switch, please explain the exact scheduling.

Did they somehow anticipate that Asumu would have a stillbirth and Kyrie would carry hers to term? If not, how did they manage to learn about it and carry everything out during the interval?

I already answered this to begin with, when I speculated that the two might have been brought at Nanjo's hospital and he might have done the switch for whatever member of the Ushiromiya.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Judoh

He may have wanted to tell her, but couldn't because he wanted her to find out the truth when he realized she was looking into it. Another issue here is if Battler is really Amakusa did he kill Ange or not?

If Battler is Amakusa, almost certainly not. Even if Amakusa isn't Battler, almost certainly not. However, it is possible Kasumi managed to kill her before Amakusa could kill Kasumi.

Or maybe none of that happened quite that way at all. We may yet see come ep8.

Dlanor: Actually even if we accept that Eva shot Battler in ep3 there's no proof he died from that or indeed died in any particular episode. Not that it matters, necessarily.

But then Eva herself survived being shot in the ep7 Tea Party, but the behavior of the guns in ep7 was "realistic." In the fictions where the genre is murder mystery, guns probably don't fail to hit their lethal marks like that. Either way, it doesn't strike me as relevant because ep3 is almost certainly not quite accurate.

[estdesoda]

Er, anyone made the speculation that Battler was already dead, 6 years ago, in 1980?

This is one solution that I came up with after finished reading Episode 7. I got a lengthy theory for it, but just wonder if anyone had that idea already.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by estdesoda

Er, anyone made the speculation that Battler was already dead, 6 years ago, in 1980?

This is one solution that I came up with after finished reading Episode 7. I got a lengthy theory for it, but just wonder if anyone had that idea already.

By all means, go right ahead. I've considered it but couldn't find any particularly great reason for it to work, but if you think you've got something...

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by kamuinoyume

I already answered this to begin with, when I speculated that the two might have been brought at Nanjo's hospital and he might have done the switch for whatever member of the Ushiromiya.

Is there any evidence that Battler was born at Nanjo's hospital? (Wouldn't Rudolf mention something along the lines of "Nanjo delivered you" when introducing them?)

Is there any evidence that anybody else might have been at the hospital?

Why would Krauss or Eva WANT to switch the babies?

What reason would they have for being at the clinic BEFORE learning about Asumu's stillbirth?

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Ssol

LyricalAura, you didn't address my last comment though.

How does Battler (after overcoming the obstacle of always viewing his family positively) after leaning the truth say that no one is bad to Ange? If you say that he's just comforting her after the nightmare Bernkastel showed to her, then what about how Battler behaved with everyone present in the episode 6 tea party? Wouldn't it be strange if one of them turns out to be the culprit?

I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is the idea that "Rudolf loved Kyrie, so he must not have loved Asumu" is somehow valid reasoning. All evidence we have says that he loved both of them.

For that matter, why does the baby switch even have to be deliberate? Two babies with the same father were delivered in the same hospital on the same day. Doesn't that immediately suggest the possibility of a simple hospital error? If Rudolf found out about it after the fact, there's no way he could speak up. What would he say to Asumu? "Sorry dear, there was a mistake. Your baby is actually dead, we have to give this one back to Kyrie"?

[estdesoda]

Ok, let me type...I have not much of participation of umineko in English before, so pardon me if some of my translations of terms and names look different.

First of all, I am using the Author Theory to explain what each Episodes are. I think the Culprit (or Maria) wrote Episode 1 and 2, and Tooya (八城十八) and/or other writers wrote Episode 3~6.

Ok, then let's start my speculation.

In 1980, Kyrie (霧江) killed both Asumu (明日夢) and Battler (戦人). She did it out of jealousy, hatred and love for Rudolf (留弗夫). After Kyrie did her murder, Rudolf decided help her conceal the murder and marry her. Possible reasons of Rudolf doing this, might be because Rudolf felt that he was responsible for Kyrie becoming a murderer (Kyrie won't kill Asumu if Rudolf had married Kyrie), and maybe also because Kyrie was pregnant with Ange (縁寿) at that time.

OK. Now Battler is dead, and Rudolf wants to concealing this fact.

Rudolf and Kyrie then decided to tell everyone that Asumu died, and Battler left the family out of anger. Telling everyone that Asumu and Battler are both dead would make Kyrie look too suspicious, I suppose. So, for 6 years continuously, Rudolf and Kyrie prepares fake letter and keeps on telling everyone that Battler is alive, but just full with anger and not wanting to go back home.

Unfortunately for them, they had no clue that Battler made a promise with Shanon (紗音) = Yasu (ヤス...yeah, I think they are the same person), so they had prepared no letter for poor Shanon. This got Shanon to be curious about how Battler actually is, and send people out (probably Genji (源次)) to make contact with Battler, but Genji came back, and tell Shanon that Battler actually is dead.

Shanon was extremly sad about this. However, before the meeting in 1986, she (as a maid on the island) heard the news that Battler is coming back. She was surprised - well, she knew that Battler was dead！So who exactly is the Battler, who came on 1986？That makes the 1986 Battler a fake, deliberately prepared by Rudolf and Kyrie.

Shanon soon figured out that the 1986 Battler was a fake. She then decides to do two things: 1. Write (or have Maria write) Episode 1 and 2, and send them out by wine bottle. 2. Make sure that nobody leaves the island alive.

Why did Shanon do this? The answer is, to make Battler live eternally, in people's mind, as the hero of the Rukujima Mystery, who eternally fights with Beatrice the golden witch. The entire event of Rukujima, is Shanon's way of making everyone remember Battler forever. Eva got out the island alive in the story of Episode 3 and 7, but things are fine as she decided to ot say anything.

Who is Meta-Battler, you may ask? Well, I think Meta-Battler is an imaginary character created by Shanon, Eva, and Ange together. Shanon created Meta-Battler by writing Episode 1 and 2, Eva helped in the creation by not breaking Shanon's lie, and Ange just firmly hopes that her brother is alive and fighting with the witch like a big hero. Thus, these 3 all have the name of BEATRIX.

Now, let's check this speculation with Reds.

犯人は物語当初の登場人物以外を禁ず。
The fake Battler in 1986 isn't the Culprit. He is a fake, but not the Culprit.

戦人くんは犯人ではありませんよ。
戦人くんは誰も殺してはいません。
Yeah, Battler (fake or not) didn't kill anybody. No problem.

提示されない手掛かりでの解決を禁ず。
手掛かりなき他の登場人物への変装を禁ず。
Episode 4 hinted that there was something fishy about Battler's idendity.

俺の名は右代宮戦人。
Well, Meta-Battler said this, and his creaters (Shanon, Eva, Ange) did name him Battler.

妾は黄金の魔女、ベアトリーチェ。
そして右代宮金蔵の孫、右代宮戦人と戦うためにこのゲームを開催した。
Yeah, Beatrix created the entrie Umineko story for the sake of Battler. No problem.

右代宮戦人の母は、右代宮明日夢である。
Yep. The mother of the real Battler is Asumu.

俺の名は右代宮戦人だ。
Meta-Battler said this, and yes he was named by his creater as Battler.

右代宮戦人は、右代宮明日夢から生まれた。
Yep. The real Battler was born from Asumu. No problem.

俺は右代宮戦人だ…！
Meta-Battler said this, and yes his name is Battler.

俺は右代宮明日夢から、
Meta-Battler said this, but Asumu didn't give him birth. Shanon did.

そなたは、右代宮明日夢の息子ではない。
This is said by Beatrix to Meta-Battler, and yes Meta-Battler isn't Asumu's son.

右代宮戦人は右代宮明日夢の息子ではないわ。
Remember the previous red of 右代宮戦人の母は、右代宮明日夢である。 ? For these two reds to both be true, I can only guess that there are two Battlers, one has Asumu as the mother, but not the other one.

………縁寿は、……俺の妹だ。
Meta-Battler said this, and Ange did create him as the heroic big brother who fights with the evil witch on island, so yes Ange is Meta-Battler's little sister.

………右代宮戦人。今から私が、あなたを殺します。
Beatrix said this to Meta-Battler. I explain this as Beatrix decalring that she is going to make another Episode of story, that has Battler failed to defeat the evil golden witch, and not coming back from the island.

………そしてたった今。この島にはあなた以外誰もいません。この島で生きているのは、あなただけです。島の 外の存在は一切干渉できません。
This red was spoken in the Meta-world. I say that this means that, in this story, created by Beatrix (or the author of EP 4), has progressed to the stage that every other characters of the story on island have died. Nobody else that's not in the story (not on the island) could interfere with him.

………この島にあなたはたった一人。そしてもちろん、私はあなたではない。なのに私は今、ここにいて、これ からあなたを殺します。
The EP4 story had progressed to the stage in which everyone else other than Battler had died. Of course, Beatrix (the writer) isn't the same as Battler, and Beatrix (the writer), now, is going to kill Battler again, by writing out the ending of "Battler did not come back from island" again.

このゲームに、ハッピーエンドは与えない。
The real Battler was dead, so there is no happy ending.

「幻は、幻に。約束された死神は、魔女の意思を問わずに、物語に幕を下ろす。」
Battler is dead. This truth doesn't change regardless of how the witch thinks or hopes, and so every story must say "Battler did not come back from the island".

(戦人に対し)そなたは無能だ！
This was said by Beatrix to Meta-Battler. Meta-Battler is powerless because he can't win (he was written, or created to fight enternally, not to win).

そなたは妾の一番のお気に入りの家具にしてやるよ。
そなたを愛して愛して、灰になるまで妾の玩具にしてやるよ…。
This was said by Beatrix to Meta-Battler, and yes Meta-Battler, accoring to my theory, IS the most beloved toy of the golden witch.

妾は約束は守る。
Shanon had created the umineko story, so that the promise between the real Battler and Shanon could have been kept.

ベアトは、あなたに解いて欲しいと願って、解けるようにこのゲームを、……この物語の謎を生み 出しました。
Yep. Beatrix made the game so that Meta-Battler could try to solve it.

これまでのあなたは探偵デシタ！
Dlanor (ドラノール) said this to Meta-Battler. Yeah, Meta-Battler was a dectective previously.

So, in a way, I am saying that there are 3 Battlers.

Battler No.1：Born by Asumu, killed by Kyrie.

Battler No.2：Meta-Battler, created by Beatrix.

Battler No.3：A fake, prepared by Kyrie and Rudolf to go on the island in 1986.
The reds in Episode 3 about Battler refers to him, this fake guy. He can be called as Battler, because the true Battler's father had decided to make him Battler.

What does this speculation do?

It answers the motivation of Yasu. It explains where このゲームに、ハッピーエンドは与えない came from. It shows how Battler was both born from Asumu and not born from Asumu. It also explains why Battler seems to have "forgot" his promise with Shanon - well, dead people can hardly keep their promises.

Er, why did Rudolf and Kyrie prepared a fake?

Well..maybe Kinzo was angry that Battler leaving the family, and made some huge cut to the amount of money that Rudolf could inherit. Rufold and Kyrie did this, to hire a fake Battler to please Kinzo, so that they can get more money.

[Marion]

I don't like that theory mainly because at this point in the game it's too big of a deus ex machina to throw. The idea of hiring a fake Battler doesn't make sense because

1) Kyrie and Rudolf think Kinzo is already dead. So why hire a fake to possibly please Kinzo when they think this?
2) We see a lot of Battler's inner thinking and there are detailed thoughts of things Kyrie and Rudolf likely wouldn't have knowledge of.
3) In EP 6 Kyrie mad no mention of wanting to kill Battler- her intent was only to murder Asumu and no one else. I doubt Rudolf realizes she wanted to kill Asumu, or else he would probably think twice about marrying her.

Furthermore your speculation is only based on red truths. The red text provides concrete details about the murders and so forth, but they do not provide anything on who the character is as a whole being. White text is essential to the 'Why Do It' because there isn't any red regarding motivations.

Besides it's clear in EP 7 that Yasu/Shannon/Whatever you wanna call her is just insane. She literally decides to blow up the island because Battler forgot about the promise. It's not that he didn't keep it, it's that he didn't remember it at all. This isn't something a person who is of sane mind would do. And yes I know some people are willing to forgive her, because if Bern is actually telling the truth about the true events (and that's a big 'What If'), then Yasu didn't kill anyone. Personally I don't because she still had the intent to blow everyone up if no one solved the epitaph that night, but that's an opinion.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Marion

Furthermore your speculation is only based on red truths. The red text provides concrete details about the murders and so forth, but they do not provide anything on who the character is as a whole being. White text is essential to the 'Why Do It' because there isn't any red regarding motivations.

In fairness, it does sort of work with the red, but then so does Kinzotrice and Battlertrice.

And Rosa states outright this idea in ep2 when she's chasing Battler off.

Besides it's clear in EP 7 that Yasu/Shannon/Whatever you wanna call her is just insane. She literally decides to blow up the island because Battler forgot about the promise. It's not that he didn't keep it, it's that he didn't remember it at all. This isn't something a person who is of sane mind would do. And yes I know some people are willing to forgive her, because if Bern is actually telling the truth about the true events (and that's a big 'What If'), then Yasu didn't kill anyone. Personally I don't because she still had the intent to blow everyone up if no one solved the epitaph that night, but that's an opinion.

It's completely opinion as to whether Yasu is insane. Her personality leading up to the Beatrice thing is decidedly possible to read as entirely sane. And everything after could be manipulated for mudslinging purposes. Remember, it's in certain people's interests to make Beatrice look as uncharitably-motivated as possible.

My opinion is that if you can't plausibly connect Yasu's primary characterization with an individual who would commit a mass murder, then that simply isn't what she was actually intending (or the characterization is a lie). And I don't really think the Yasu stuff makes Beatrice more plausible as a culprit. If anything, it makes it much, much less so.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is the idea that "Rudolf loved Kyrie, so he must not have loved Asumu" is somehow valid reasoning. All evidence we have says that he loved both of them.

Yea, that is not valid reasoning but I never wrote that. My opinion is that Rudolf loved Asumu and Kyrie. However, Asumu moved quicker than Kyrie and became engaged with Rudolf when they both became pregnant. Kyrie admitted that was her mistake. Rudolf probably would have chosen Kyrie over Asumu but Asumu took advantage of the situation first.

Your claim:
"All evidence we have says that he loved both of them."

Can you clarify this? Are you saying that no evidence can be found in this game to suggest that Rudolf did not love Asumu?

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

For that matter, why does the baby switch even have to be deliberate? Two babies with the same father were delivered in the same hospital on the same day. Doesn't that immediately suggest the possibility of a simple hospital error? If Rudolf found out about it after the fact, there's no way he could speak up. What would he say to Asumu? "Sorry dear, there was a mistake. Your baby is actually dead, we have to give this one back to Kyrie"?

The baby swap does not have to be deliberate. It could have been a hospital error as you suggest. Is that what you believe happened?

[estdesoda]

Originally Posted by Marion

I don't like that theory mainly because at this point in the game it's too big of a deus ex machina to throw. The idea of hiring a fake Battler doesn't make sense because

1) Kyrie and Rudolf think Kinzo is already dead. So why hire a fake to possibly please Kinzo when they think this?

Do you mind to remind me where in the game that they said that Kyrie and Rudolf thinks that Kinzo is dead? Yeah, that would definitly give my theory trouble.

Originally Posted by Marion

2) We see a lot of Battler's inner thinking and there are detailed thoughts of things Kyrie and Rudolf likely wouldn't have knowledge of.

I have claim that the Umineko Episodes were written by Beatrix and other authors (like Tooya). They can write up the "Battler's inner thinking" as much as they want, and it doesn't need to match with what the fake Battler was actually thinking, as nobody alive (maybe expect Eva, who doesn't speak) would know the difference.

Originally Posted by Marion

3) In EP 6 Kyrie mad no mention of wanting to kill Battler- her intent was only to murder Asumu and no one else. I doubt Rudolf realizes she wanted to kill Asumu, or else he would probably think twice about marrying her.

Well, why would Kyrie NOT want to murder Battler? I have always found it odd that Kyrie appears to be in a good term with Battler, despite of her hatred to Asumu.

Originally Posted by Marion

Furthermore your speculation is only based on red truths. The red text provides concrete details about the murders and so forth, but they do not provide anything on who the character is as a whole being. White text is essential to the 'Why Do It' because there isn't any red regarding motivations.

Want some reds regarding motivation?

……恐怖を味わわせるのが目的ではありません。
誰かに復讐するためのものでもありません。
…ベアトは、快楽目的で殺人を行なっていることはありません。

If Yasu blew up Battler because Battler forgot her, how come that doesn't count as revenge?

Originally Posted by Marion

Besides it's clear in EP 7 that Yasu/Shannon/Whatever you wanna call her is just insane. She literally decides to blow up the island because Battler forgot about the promise. It's not that he didn't keep it, it's that he didn't remember it at all.

and why did Battler just forget it? Why, if he was just forgetful, could he not just recall his promise, win back Shanon's heart, and go live happily after?

Nope, that kind of thing will never happen, as promised in red：

このゲームに、ハッピーエンドは与えない。

and my theory gives a reason for why it would never happen.

Originally Posted by Marion

This isn't something a person who is of sane mind would do. And yes I know some people are willing to forgive her, because if Bern is actually telling the truth about the true events (and that's a big 'What If'), then Yasu didn't kill anyone. Personally I don't because she still had the intent to blow everyone up if no one solved the epitaph that night, but that's an opinion.

Umm, yeah I agree that Yasu look insane, and was probably willing to kill people.

[Marion]

Spoiler for reply to estdesoda:

Do you mind to remind me where in the game that they said that Kyrie and Rudolf thinks that Kinzo is dead? Yeah, that would definitly give my theory trouble.

Look back on the family discussion in EP 4- Kyrie is the first one to bring up the idea to everyone, but its implied in EP 5 that everyone had a suspicion about it.

Well, why would Kyrie NOT want to murder Battler? I have always found it odd that Kyrie appears to be in a good term with Battler, despite of her hatred to Asumu.

Rudolf. While it's possible that Rudolf doesn't care much about Asumu, he clearly cared a lot about his son. I can't imagine him helping her cover up the murders for that reason.

If Yasu blew up Battler because Battler forgot her, how come that doesn't count as revenge?

You forget that Yasu can bypass red text because of the personalities/imaginary friends she made up. The one he made the promise to was Shannon and not Beatrice- the latter was the result of the forgotten promise.

and why did Battler just forget it? Why, if he was just forgetful, could he not just recall his promise, win back Shanon's heart, and go live happily after?

Battler forgot it because his mother just suddenly died, his dad remarried suddenly and now he also has a little sister from the other woman. With all of that on his mind I think something embarassing he said one time would sort of not register as important. It's not uncommon for people to not remember things as well from such a long time ago, unless the event was significant enough to stick (such as the death of a loved one). To YasuShannon the promise was incredibly important, but to Battler it was more like another day of talking with his crush.

As to why he gave up- he said on the beach in EP 3 about that. Shannon is with George and Jessica implies that George might be proposing. He might have a small crush on her, but he's not going to stand in the way of them.

[estdesoda]

Spoiler for reply to Marion:

Originally Posted by Marion

Look back on the family discussion in EP 4- Kyrie is the first one to bring up the idea to everyone, but its implied in EP 5 that everyone had a suspicion about it.

Oh. Yeah, I remember that now.

It is possible that Kyrie only gained that suspicion after she is on the island, and seeing that Kinzo still isn't around - but by that time, the fake guy is already on the island. Or, maybe Kyrie thought about Kinzo being actually dead, but Rudolf didn't think so, so they still hired the fake.

But yeah, the above explanations I just made looks somehow stretching.

Originally Posted by Marion

Rudolf. While it's possible that Rudolf doesn't care much about Asumu, he clearly cared a lot about his son. I can't imagine him helping her cover up the murders for that reason.

Hmm. Kyrie decided to put up her smiling face with Battler because Rudolf cared about him? Ok, that sounds possible. I agree.

The motivation I gave for Rudolf on covering up the murder, was that Rudolf 1. loved Kyrie and 2. thought that it was entirely HIS fault that Kyrie become a killer. If these 2 statements are true - plus maybe Kyrie had Ange - then I can see Rudolf to be willing to cover up the murder.

Originally Posted by Marion

You forget that Yasu can bypass red text because of the personalities/imaginary friends she made up. The one he made the promise to was Shannon and not Beatrice- the latter was the result of the forgotten promise.

So that Battler made his promise with Shanon, but Yasu - or Beatrix - or maybe even Kanon or カップ blew up Battler with the bomb？

(thinking)

er...ok.

but even if it was Shanon's imaginary friend/other personality/or maybe even Genji that blew up the island, the motivation for the blowing up still came from Battler's forgiveness, and how come that doesn't count as revenging-for-the-sake-of-our-friend/lord-Shanon?

er...wait. The reds said that Beatrix didn't do it for revenge, but didn't say anything about the motivation of others (personality/imaginary friend).

Alright.

Originally Posted by Marion

Battler forgot it because his mother just suddenly died, his dad remarried suddenly and now he also has a little sister from the other woman. With all of that on his mind I think something embarassing he said one time would sort of not register as important. It's not uncommon for people to not remember things as well from such a long time ago, unless the event was significant enough to stick (such as the death of a loved one). To YasuShannon the promise was incredibly important, but to Battler it was more like another day of talking with his crush.

Hmm. Good explation on why Battler would forget.
This still makes Battler look irresponsible, but oh well.

Originally Posted by Marion

As to why he gave up- he said on the beach in EP 3 about that. Shannon is with George and Jessica implies that George might be proposing. He might have a small crush on her, but he's not going to stand in the way of them.

Good answer. But let me make up some scenarios, and see how this answer would work under that kind of condition.

Say Battler, or somebody discovered that ShannonYasu wants to blow up everyone. People would natually want to make sure that the blowing up doesn't happen - at least not to themselves. However, ShannonYasu, well, won't want to tell people how to stop the bomb in that kind of condition; therefore, people might 1. Give up and die, 2. Go hide like Eva, or 3. Try to convince ShanonYasu.

Now.

Why wouldn't

1. Battler successfully convince ShanonYasu and go happy ending (if ShanonYasu wants to blow up everyone, including George, then the reasoning of "not wanting to stand between George and Shanon" would be very slim)

or

2. Everyone coorperate, go hide together safely, and send ShanonYasu to either jail or mental hospital

ever happen?

In EP4, Lambda and Bern had promised that Beatrix would never win (I think this was white, not red..oh well..). Ok, why? Say Battler won't take the initiative and approach ShanonYasu because of George, but why can't ShanonYasu ditch George and take her initiative?

Oh, maybe she did do so in EP4...but Battler still had no clue. Why, would Battler still have no clue when Beatrix pops up in front of Battler, and ask him who he loves? Yeah, he could forget his promise for 6 years because his mother died and his dad marries another woman, but still not remembering it after that girl he had a crush on jumps back and ask him who his favourite is AFTER having killed people is weird.

"Hey, this girl that I was in good terms with 6 years ago just killed everyone else but me, and is now asking me what the name of my best lover is. Er, what do I do?"

The EP4 Battler's reply was like..."Haha I have no clue! Well, that's say it's you, so that you would die!"...which doesn't look like as if he had any clue of what's going on, and I say that this is just odd. Why would he still not remember the promise, under that kind of condition？

I say that it is because this Battler was not the same Battler who made the promise, coming back to my theory. ShanonYasuTrice may have tried something like that with the fake Battler, in the hope that she was wrong about Battler's death, but it didn't work.

This also explains why there was a red that promises that the old Beatrix would never wake up. The old Beatrix had tried everything to test to see if the Battler she met was fake, and the Battler that she met indeed was. So, she gave up, and never wakes up again.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Yea, that is not valid reasoning but I never wrote that. My opinion is that Rudolf loved Asumu and Kyrie. However, Asumu moved quicker than Kyrie and became engaged with Rudolf when they both became pregnant. Kyrie admitted that was her mistake. Rudolf probably would have chosen Kyrie over Asumu but Asumu took advantage of the situation first.

Your claim:
"All evidence we have says that he loved both of them."

Can you clarify this? Are you saying that no evidence can be found in this game to suggest that Rudolf did not love Asumu?

I think there is ambiguous evidence that you could interpret as suggesting that, but you could equally interpret it as supporting other, more solid evidence that Rudolf did love her. Basically it's like this:

Originally Posted by Frederica Bernkastel

Many things were found from his room.
From those evidences, it is possible to deduce that I am loved by you.

Many things were found from my room.
From those evidences, it is possible to deduce that I also love you.

Nothing was found from her room.
However, I can’t deny the existence of an undiscovered evidence X of unfaithfulness.

--Frederica Bernkastel

Without a flashback, all we have to go on is accounts of Rudolf's actions toward Asumu. There's Kyrie's account of their college days, where Rudolf and Asumu seemed to grow very close, and there's Battler's account of six years ago suggesting that Rudolf hooking up with Kyrie came as a surprise (in other words, there was no obvious reason beforehand to think he was unhappy with Asumu).

We do also have ambiguous data, such as the quick marriage to Kyrie and the removal of Asumu's photos. You can interpret it favorably in light of the other evidence: he was devastated by Asumu's death and ran to his closest friend/lover for comfort, and it hurt too much to keep seeing her photos lying around. Or, since Rudolf's thoughts are a cat box, you can claim that he had secret motivation X which caused him to pretend to love Asumu, and then when she died he immediately tossed her aside and ran to his real lover.

However, I think the story is practically shouting at this point that you shouldn't assume the worst of people in the absence of data. What is there to make that second line of reasoning more attractive? Rampant speculation about the baby swap, which is also inside a cat box?

Originally Posted by Ssol

The baby swap does not have to be deliberate. It could have been a hospital error as you suggest. Is that what you believe happened?

Yes, I think it's the least malicious interpretation that can be imposed, given what we know. There doesn't seem to be anything linking it to Rokkenjima, so I don't feel a need to cook up some complicated scheme involving multiple people to explain it. Sometimes tragic things happen that are just accidents.