Russia invasion of Ukraine

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by TheForsaken

I think that you guys have consumed too much of Western propaganda.
I have said before, and I will say it again: There is ZERO chance that a war is going to happen (unless Ukraine is stupid enough to attack first).

I will come back to this thread at the end of 2022 and ask: "Hey guys, how is the invasion going?"
Well, at that point, it's possible that the Western media will hype up a new imminent invasion lol.

Tell us why you think Russia is building up a substantial military force on Ukraine's border.

[mangamuscle]

A proposal to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognise two breakaway east Ukraine regions as independent will not be ready for discussion by the relevant parliamentary committee until next week, the committee's head told Reuters on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-01-24/

Bear in mind, next Monday is this 31. This is the reason putin wanted asap the USA and NATO response to his demands, so that could start the narrative the he is merely reacting to the west. putin is waiting for his opponents to blink to see how much he can get away with, like the KGB operative he is at heart.

[mangamuscle]

Russia relocates naval exercise near Ireland after Irish fishermen said they would disrupt it

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...val-exercises/

Is this Putin finally realizing his attempt at bullying the EU has only galvanized their governments against him or is this merely the calm before the storm? BTW, anyone that thinks some fishermen were mightier than a naval fleet deserve to be laughed at like Donald Trump was at the UN assembly.

[mangamuscle]

Viktor Orban under fire for Moscow meeting with Vladimir Putin

https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/31/...ing-with-putin

Divide and conquer is putin's motto and boot licking orban appoints himself as the wedge for said task.

[Jaden]

Finland buys 100% of its gas from Russia too, and nobody complains when our president meets with Putin.

[ramlaen]

Finland isn't s NATO member and didn't shut down a bunch of nuclear power plants making itself more dependent on Russian favor.

[AnimeFan188]

Putin's "Elite Capture" strategy:

"Of all the persuasion tools that the former lieutenant colonel of the KGB employs,
however, the most effective may be “elite capture” — offering attractive board positions
in Russian companies to former European leaders, including former German Chancellor
Gerhard Schröder, who last Friday took aim at Ukraine on his podcast for provoking
Russia and voicing his hope that “the saber-rattling from Ukraine will stop.”"

See:

https://news.yahoo.com/how-putin-has...221323602.html

[mangamuscle]

So, where are we atm? Putin went out of his way to ask xijing ping to sign a declaration against NATO's further expansion. Xi is pleased for two reasons, this make it seem like if China has a say in Europe's affairs. Also, he no doubt made Putin promise there wont be any invasion while the winter games take place, this is China's moment to shine in the international stage.

But the winter games end of february 20, the same day the joint belarus-russia military exercises are supposed to end. The thing is, Putin can't leave empty handed, he needs a win to avoid losing face, but he didn't expect such a solid resistance against his plans.

The other thing no one seems to take into consideration, Putin is already 69, he has already been in charge for more than two decades, it would make sense to wait a couple of years to see if he can get Biden out of the white house, but chances are either way he wont be able to place someone sympathetic to his plans and down the line there isn't any "low hanging fruit" for him to further his plans, so mark the 21 of february in your calendars, if anything just to come here and tell me "See, nothing happened!".

[mangamuscle]

Just a quick reminder of the playbook after an invasion of Ukraine:

The Soviet Massive Deportations - A Chronology

https://www.sciencespo.fr/mass-viole...hronology.html

[AnimeFan188]

It Looks Like Russia Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine's Coastlines
Next Week

"The Russian government has reportedly issued notices warning mariners and aviators to
avoid significant portions of the northern end of the Black Sea, as well as the adjacent Sea
of Azov, next week ostensibly due to upcoming live-fire naval exercises. The obvious
concern is that this could amount to a de facto blockade of Ukraine's southern coastlines,
which in turn might be part of preparations for new large-scale Russian military
intervention into that country.

Earlier today, Andrii Klymenko, a member of the Ukraine-based Institute of Strategic Black
Sea Studies think tank and editor-in-chief of the independent BlackSeaNews website,
posted a map on social media showing areas of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov covered
by these notices. He said that the alerts will be in effect starting this coming Sunday,
February 13, through the following Saturday, February 19."

See:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ines-next-week

[ramlaen]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/st...03576260759561

The U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and communicated those plans to the Russian military, three officials tell
@nickschifrin
. Two admin officials say they expect the invasion to begin next week—echoing what Secretary of State Blinken has said.

[AnimeFan188]

Russian Artillery Moving Into "Attack Positions" Along Ukraine Border: Report

"CBS News has reported that Russian artillery units have moved into "attack positions" in
preparation for a new invasion of Ukraine, citing U.S. officials. At the same time, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky says that he has been informed that the Kremlin will launch
this operation this Wednesday, February 16th, and that he has declared the day a holiday
to demonstrate the country's unity in response.

"Some Russian units have left their assembly areas – the bumper-to-bumper formations
seen in satellite photos – and are beginning to move into 'attack positions,' according to
the [U.S.] official," CBS News' story said. "This movement marks a change since Sunday,
when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be
viewed as attack positions.""

See:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-border-report

[mangamuscle]

Let me say something before tomorrow:

Worst Case Scenario. Putin attacks anyway since he is a serial liar. There is also the posibility that a trigger happy grunt might trigger the war; remember Flight MH17 and Archduke Franz Ferdinand. There is also the possibility of a repeat of the "little green men" scenario, everybody is looking at the border, not sure how closely they are monitoring people entering Ukraine thru airports and black sea ports.

Best Case Scenario. The promise of "The mother of all sanctions" stopped further escalation ... for now. Remember Putin is president for life (and longer if he manages to put his head in a jar, Futurama style). He can bet onto getting Trump (or one of his sons or daughters) into the WH. Would not be surprised if he announces retirement as part of a campaign to make the west believe the danger is over.

I do wonder what are the odds atm in Las Vegas gambling.

[mangamuscle]

So it was a cyberattack what Putin had mind for the day everybody was expecting a traditional attack, no doubt he is testing the west to see how far he can go before sanctions set in:

Ukraine's Military and Banks Hit By Apparent DDoS Cyberattack Campaign

https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-a...tag=CAD590a51e

[Sheba]

Nobody in the interwar period have bought into Japan's Mukden Incident bullshit, what made Putin think he can pull it?

[Ithekro]

Nearly 90 years of forgetfulness?

[mangamuscle]

I think Putin's train of thought is more like "If Dubya could invade Iraq with that WMD b*llsh*t, you bet I can pull it with a highly sophisticated blah, blah, blah". He thinks he is sooo smart when TBT, he hasn't been able to convince the west to lift the sanctions put in place for the invasion of Crimea which BTW, hasn't produced any real dividends on the long term /short term popularity spikes don't offset the long term costs). No doubt he is looking for crack in the sanctions the west would impose, but he is such an obvious bully that he can't prevent most of the sanctions from being implemented.

No doubt many think of the Russia-China alliance as similar to the German-Japan alliance of WWII, but if you look closely is more like the alliance between Germany and Italy. in the two decades since Putin became president he has put his efforts into making Russia a military powerhouse, neglecting the fact that you need to be an economical powerhouse (like China) to be a real superpower.

[ramlaen]

Trying to read tea leaves based on caricatures is folly.

At the moment it appears Russia is trying to create the appearance of a Ukrainian offensive against the 'seperatists' whom Russia will need to rescue.

[mangamuscle]

I was thinking, maybe Putin is looking to create a north and south Ukraine, just like in the Korea war, where they north got their butt kicked and china had to enter the fray. Lookin at the internal divisions of Ukraine as a country gave me that idea:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admini...e_4_colors.svg

No doubt putin wants the two secessionists oblasts, plus all the black sea coast and then up to the frontier with Hungary and Slovakia to form south Ukraine. Of course north Ukraine can keep Chernobyl, putin is not the kind of person to clean up after any mess created by the USSR.

This would plenty of provocations for Ukraine to go after the secessionists and could take years to complete, but putin isn't going anywhere. They are already telling civilians to flee into Russia, they have already given Russian passports to anyone who asks in the Donbas region.

[ramlaen]

There is a lot to unpack here.

YouTube

https://youtu.be/lJl6u13LqeQ

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Originally Posted by TheForsaken

I think that you guys have consumed too much of Western propaganda.
I have said before, and I will say it again: There is ZERO chance that a war is going to happen (unless Ukraine is stupid enough to attack first).

I will come back to this thread at the end of 2022 and ask: "Hey guys, how is the invasion going?"
Well, at that point, it's possible that the Western media will hype up a new imminent invasion lol.

Any comments on the Russian army moving into eastern Ukraine today?