2013-11-21, 10:45 | Link #1861 |
♪~Deculture~♪ (✿◠‿◠)
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Various Pocket Dimensions
Age: 30
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Abstained] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Ayasaki Hayate ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Abstained] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao] ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Saigyōji Yuyuko] ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō [Komichi Aya] Mori Yuki Pretty smooth voting, besides arena 16. Aya and Yuki were hard to decide between..
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2013-11-21, 11:00 | Link #1862 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Ayasaki Hayate * (I was tempted to vote for Hayate. Difficult choice. ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao] ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko Miyu Edelfelt [Totori Kagami] * (I think Miyu will have enough support. I'll support Totori from Fantasista Doll this time.) ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura * (Just started to follow C3 bu, but not enough to convince me to vote against Nepgear) ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō [Komichi Aya] Mori Yuki
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2013-11-21, 11:14 | Link #1863 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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Quote:
There do exist one way of testing and predicting the results though in the long term. I would like to ask you to post your predictions for the actual votes of at least 9 different contestants every match day for 2014 ISML regular season. Then I am going to poll people to identify two necklace period where people felt the SDO manipulation was most rampant. After that, I will compare the actual to your predicted for group A , the 3 periods that had less manipulation, and group B, the 2 periods with more manipulation, by simply calculating actual vote number - your predicted number. Then we can calculate variance of the two group, which will lead to F_{n(B)-1, n(A) - 1 } value, thus F test, to see whether the variance for the group B is indeed higher . ( assuming true sigma_A = true sigma_B ) Please post the numbers at least 24 hours before result announcement time so the public can see the number and comment on it before voting is over. It would really help if you post two numbers in each case, the number you expect when there isn't any SDO manipulation, and number you expect because of the SDO manipulation. We can check each set of numbers separately against the actual vote number. By posting your predictions, you have a chance to prove all your points. Do also see how volatile the support level of Misaka Mikoto fans are. I think you can easily see that they arrive only for very few select matches. Some fans are like that, and each have different ideas as to which match is important to them. --------------------------- I just thought of better way to do this. SO @ Team Rocket Elite : For Vegas Fantasy of 2014 ISML Regular Season, why not do over/under for the actual vote count of contestants of your choice instead of VF% ? We can compare your predicted numbers against iamadooddood's numbers if he wants to take up my request.
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Last edited by wontaek; 2013-11-21 at 11:27. |
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2013-11-21, 11:35 | Link #1864 | |
NOM.
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 31
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Quote:
TRE's predicted percentages can be used (unless there is a more accurate method of prediction; that one I'm not sure). The current method used to calculate the deviation from predictions, cannot be used. Gaah.
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Last edited by iamadooddood; 2013-11-21 at 11:47. |
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2013-11-21, 11:44 | Link #1865 |
失礼、噛みました
Join Date: Jul 2013
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Arena 01: 桐ヶ谷和人 [日向秀樹]
arena 02: [木下秀吉] 綾崎ハヤテ arena 03: ルルーシュ・ランペルージ [神田空太] arena 04: [折木奉太郎] はたけカカシ arena 05: [音無結弦] 富樫勇太 arena 06: エレン・イェーガー [真奥貞夫] arena 07: 桂木桂馬 [夜刀神狗朗] arena 08: 阿良々木暦 [赤坂龍之介] arena 09: 博麗霊夢 [チルノ] arena 10: [霧雨魔理沙] ルーミア arena 11: 十六夜咲夜 [西行寺幽々子] arena 12: レミリア・スカーレット [鈴仙・優曇華院・イナバ] arena 13: [倉橋莉子] 美遊・エーデルフェルト 戸取かがみ arena 14: 黒木智子 [ネプギア] 大和ゆら arena 15: [ディー・エンジー・ストラトミットス] 小阪ちひろ 蟲奉行 arena 16: 雪華綺晶 [小路綾] 森雪
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2013-11-21, 11:48 | Link #1866 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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Quote:
I did also thought about calculating a relevant average VF number and comparing it to VF number for a match or another average VF number. The problem with this is that it will have trouble handling cases like Topaz 1, that overall average VF numbers for all the characters tended to decrease in the later necklace period, and deciding which average VF number is the right one to use. Also, even if there was a more accurate prediction model, since it did NOT post its predictions before the start of the match, we cannot use it.
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2013-11-21, 12:05 | Link #1867 | |
NOM.
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 31
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Quote:
Though what you suggested in your last post here, could work too. In fact, I should be able to calculate deviation from any prediction, if done right. As long as the prediction is accurate I can use it.
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2013-11-21, 12:29 | Link #1868 |
┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!
Join Date: Sep 2010
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta] ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: Araragi Koyomi [Akasaka Ryūnosuke] ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno] ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Saigyōji Yuyuko] ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: [Kurahashi Riko] Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki |
2013-11-21, 13:50 | Link #1869 |
UNBOUND-ed
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Oakland, CA
Age: 71
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ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Ayasaki Hayate ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki
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2013-11-21, 14:32 | Link #1870 |
One PUNCH!
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2005
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ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta] ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō Komichi Aya [Mori Yuki] |
2013-11-21, 15:49 | Link #1871 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2008
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Abstained] Ayasaki Hayate ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Abstained] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: Katsuragi Keima [Yatogami Kurō] ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Abstained] Cirno ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Abstained] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Abstained] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Abstained] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: [Abstained] Kurahashi Riko Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura ARENA 15: [Dee Ensy Stratmitos] Kosaka Chihiro Mushibugyō ARENA 16: [Abstained] Kirakishō Komichi Aya Mori Yuki |
2013-11-21, 15:59 | Link #1873 |
He Without a Title
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The land of tempura
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ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Abstained] Ayasaki Hayate ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta] ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: Katsuragi Keima [Abstained] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Abstained] Cirno ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Abstained] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Abstained] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Abstained] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura ARENA 15: [Dee Ensy Stratmitos] Kosaka Chihiro Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō Komichi Aya [Mori Yuki]
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2013-11-21, 17:38 | Link #1874 |
Mishaguji-sama
Join Date: Oct 2010
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao] ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: Araragi Koyomi [Akasaka Ryūnosuke] ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno] ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Saigyōji Yuyuko] ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: [Kurahashi Riko] Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko Nepgear [Yamato Yura] ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō [Komichi Aya] Mori Yuki |
2013-11-21, 18:09 | Link #1876 |
Yuri µ'serator
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: FL, USA
Age: 36
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ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Ayasaki Hayate ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao] ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Saigyōji Yuyuko] ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Reisen Udongein Inaba] ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō [Komichi Aya] Mori Yuki Aya, Miyu, and Nepgear all easily earn my vote . Ryūnosuke vs Koyomi and Lelouch vs Sorata were closes ones though.
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2013-11-22, 03:46 | Link #1877 |
Sayaka★Magica
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Under the piercing blue sky
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ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata] ARENA 04: Oreki Hōtarō [Abstained] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta] ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao] ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: [Hakurei Reimu] Cirno ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: [Abstained] Kurahashi Riko Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami ARENA 14: [Abstained] Kuroki Tomoko Nepgear Yamato Yura ARENA 15: [Dee Ensy Stratmitos] Kosaka Chihiro Mushibugyō ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki
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2013-11-22, 12:12 | Link #1878 |
Senior Member
Author
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Arenas 8. 9, and 13 were close calls. Riko vs. Miyu was particularly painful.
ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: Katsuragi Keima [Yatogami Kurō] ARENA 08: Araragi Koyomi [Akasaka Ryūnosuke] ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno] ARENA 10: [Kirisame Marisa] Rūmia ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami ARENA 14: [Abstained] Kuroki Tomoko Nepgear Yamato Yura ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki
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2013-11-22, 17:13 | Link #1879 |
My wolfu is >> your waifu
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Charleston, West Virginia
Age: 42
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*Disclaimer remains in effect...
**Now the corollary to the disclaimer... if no awesome male character, vote for the least effeminate one ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki] ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate] ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata ARENA 04: Oreki Hōtarō [Hatake Kakashi] ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta ARENA 06: [Eren Yeager] Maō Sadao ARENA 07: Katsuragi Keima [Yatogami Kurō] ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno] ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Rūmia] ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Reisen Udongein Inaba] ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko Miyu Edelfelt [Totori Kagami] ARENA 14: Kuroki Tomoko [Nepgear] Yamato Yura ARENA 15: [Dee Ensy Stratmitos] Kosaka Chihiro Mushibugyō ARENA 16: Kirakishō Komichi Aya [Mori Yuki]
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2013-11-23, 00:10 | Link #1880 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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I initially thought Kakashi looked better this year but that seems to just be due to the multiway matches, Kakashi looks about the same this year as last year. That means Oreki is about the same as last year as well. Not much change for Hideyoshi or Hayate either. Keima might be a bit stronger than last year but nothing too huge. Yuuta seems to have fully recovered with a good showing on Yuzuru. That makes Yeager look even better that that is corroborated by Yeager's strong performance on Sadao. Sadao may be a top 10 charcter going out already. Yuuta may be as good as top 6 and he's gone. Touma is probably top 16 and he didn't even get this far. Some tough luck in the bracketing this year. Not a good performance by Lelouch here. Sorata wasn't that strong last year. Sorata may be stronger now but it would have to be by quite or bit for Lelouch to look like his usual self. Similarly, Kirito didn't do that well on Hinata. The former champions need to get their act together if they want to win another title.
Touhou results were more inline with what I would normally expect. Nothing really too crazy this time. My knowledge on Summer characters is pretty weak since I haven't had time to watch a lot of the shows. It's hard to say if any of these characters are likely to be regular season material. I was hoping Tomoko would do better since she seemed to have some hype behind her but she does as badly as she did in her previous exhibition match. Same thing with Aya, although Aya won. It's nice to see Miyu did well. Considering Illyasviel isn't a super safe pick for making the regular season, it's hard to have too high expectations for Miyu's future. I'd be happy if she was strong, though. Dee Ensy Stratmitos might have some strength but not being able to easily put away a Kaminomi character isn't that good a sign. I'm probably being too negative but I do hope to see some good performances out of these characters.
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