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Old 2015-06-02, 05:24   Link #1
JokerD
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Greece Economic Crisis

Seems like Greece is swinging from one 'crisis' to another based on their payments to creditors. Any comments if this is something of their own doing or an artificial one created by IMF?
Latest: Greek PM Tsipras has 'realistic' debt deal proposal

But domestically it is an entire different matter: Greeks see cash run out in undeclared default
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Old 2015-06-02, 05:31   Link #2
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
Seems like Greece is swinging from one 'crisis' to another based on their payments to creditors. Any comments if this is something of their own doing or an artificial one created by IMF?
Latest: Greek PM Tsipras has 'realistic' debt deal proposal

But domestically it is an entire different matter: Greeks see cash run out in undeclared default
The dyslexic in me read the topic headline as this :

Greece Economic Crisis
Joke

I need a better brain.

Still, Greece doesn't have the money to pay. I seriously doubt that there is any other solution than to write off Greece's debt or to enslave the entire country (and sell them to the Turks like during the Ottoman Age).
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Old 2015-06-03, 08:48   Link #3
ganbaru
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Greece threatens to skip IMF payment; Tsipras set for EU talks
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0OJ0GQ20150603
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Old 2015-06-28, 18:49   Link #4
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ATHENS — Greece will keep its banks closed on Monday and place restrictions on the withdrawal and transfer of money, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in a televised address on Sunday night, as Athens tries to avert a financial collapse.
The government’s decision to close banks temporarily and impose other so-called capital controls — and to keep the stock market closed on Monday — came hours after the European Central Bank said it would not expand an emergency loan program that has been propping up Greek banks in recent weeks while the government was trying to reach a new debt deal with international creditors.
The debt negotiations broke down over the weekend after Mr. Tsipras said he would let the Greek people decide whether to accept the creditors’ latest offer. That referendum vote is to be held next Sunday, after the current bailout program will have expired.
Mr. Tsipras in his televised address criticized Eurozone finance ministers for refusing to extend Greece’s loan program, a decision that in turn prompted the the European Central Bank to decline to increase its emergency loans to Greek banks.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/bu...T.nav=top-news

baring a late night deal. Looks like the greeks in euro experiment is done.
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Old 2015-06-28, 21:36   Link #5
OH&S
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What's the worst case scenario for the world if Greece votes NO in the upcoming referendum and fails to make any of its payments?
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Old 2015-06-29, 00:03   Link #6
Xellos-_^
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Assuming Europe isn't stupid they should already have plans in place for Greece leaving the Euro. So the issues isn't economics but political. Sanctions against Russia needs to unanimous. This is where Greece can gum up the works. And if Greece end up receiving Russian and Chinese money to survive. How much can the NATO trust Greece.
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Old 2015-06-29, 03:50   Link #7
JokerD
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Originally Posted by OH&S View Post
What's the worst case scenario for the world if Greece votes NO in the upcoming referendum and fails to make any of its payments?
I don't think the referendum will matter much. The interest payment date comes on 30 Jun, which is in fact before the vote. With the ECB not extending the bailout for 5 more days, they would have already defaulted and be on the way out of the EU before the vote.
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Old 2015-06-29, 03:52   Link #8
Lutz2
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Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
I don't think the referendum will matter much. The interest payment date comes on 30 Jun, which is in fact before the vote. With the ECB not extending the bailout for 5 more days, they would have already defaulted and be on the way out of the EU before the vote.
Yeah i think so too, but the funny thing is the Referendum will cost the Greece State so around 110 Million Euros .
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Old 2015-06-29, 05:59   Link #9
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Well, once they go back to their own currency, holidays in Greece should get a lot cheaper.
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Old 2015-06-30, 06:53   Link #10
ganbaru
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EU in last-ditch bid to Greece, urges 'yes' vote to bailout
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0P40EO20150630

Few signs of market panic as Greece nears default
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0P92YL20150630

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
And if Greece end up receiving Russian and Chinese money to survive. How much can the NATO trust Greece.
Probably as much as the EU can trust Bulgaria's prime minister right now.
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Old 2015-06-30, 14:55   Link #11
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IMO it's a dead end, no matter what happens. EU has no actual intention of helping Greece develop...on the contrary, they'd like to increase the level of dependency that Greece has, not so that they can ensure an extra income, but in order to resume the purchase of the country. Turkey's intentions are very clear, with their sights set on the Aegean (and multiple serious breaches of maritime borders) and if the privatization of public companies is resumed, I believe we will have lost a war, living hostage to the whims of "investors". That is the worst case scenario and I hope it will not come down to it, eventually.

In case of a default, even if the everyone else in the world decides to stop trading with Greece, people can always shift to agriculture; self-sufficiency really isn't hard and several bills that afflict farmers today could be revoked. Sure, it would be many steps back in time, maybe putting a stop to progress for as much as two decades...but at least I'd be sure of my future, unlike today, wondering if I ever reach retirement (or if there will be a pension to collect at the time).

As it has been said before (perhaps in this forum, I don't remember), saving Greece is not an economical matter, but a political one. The fact that EU's grip on it has been tightening is an offensive move that should not be allowed to pass with no retribution, so if leaving the EU (not just switching currency) would mean at least causing some damage back to the people who put the country in this state in the first place. One could argue that it all started with corruption and unpaid loans, and of course they'd be correct, but there are very few countries that are debt-free and I don't see anyone breathing down their necks, so I hope you get my point.
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Old 2015-06-30, 15:41   Link #12
Xellos-_^
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kafriel View Post

As it has been said before (perhaps in this forum, I don't remember), saving Greece is not an economical matter, but a political one. The fact that EU's grip on it has been tightening is an offensive move that should not be allowed to pass with no retribution, so if leaving the EU (not just switching currency)would mean at least causing some damage back to the people who put the country in this state in the first place. One could argue that it all started with corruption and unpaid loans, and of course they'd be correct, but there are very few countries that are debt-free and I don't see anyone breathing down their necks, so I hope you get my point.
that would be Greek Politicans who cook the books to get in the Euro in the first place.
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Old 2015-06-30, 16:28   Link #13
Kafriel
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There's more than one party to blame for that, but I won't get into the matter.

As ironic as it may sound, the 90's was the best decade for this country (it was also the time of mass and shameless embezzlement, hence the irony). People had triple buying power in a very flexible market and everyone had proper education, a decent job and more than enough money to get by.

Upon changing currency, prices on most products tripled because the euro didn't replace the drachma, but the 100 drachma coin, which was the most used one (3.5 such coins approximately equaled one euro at the time). Things were not so bad yet, but then the crisis broke out and the recession kicked in...a recession that is still ongoing, which resulted in our current situation.
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Old 2015-07-01, 01:31   Link #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kafriel View Post
In case of a default, even if the everyone else in the world decides to stop trading with Greece, people can always shift to agriculture; self-sufficiency really isn't hard and several bills that afflict farmers today could be revoked. Sure, it would be many steps back in time, maybe putting a stop to progress for as much as two decades...but at least I'd be sure of my future, unlike today, wondering if I ever reach retirement (or if there will be a pension to collect at the time).
I don't really agree with the rest of your post either but assuming that everyone indeed stops trading with Greece the country will not simply switch to be self-sufficient. 11 million inhabitants aren't fed that easily not to mention that a lot of them will not accept the massive drop of living standard.

It would also mean a complete collapse of the state, meaning Greece won't just go back 2 decades but rather back to the stone age. How are you going to drive that car if there is no fuel? How are you going to operate that machine if there is no electricity? Who will pay your pension if there is no state? Along many more problems. There is no future for Greece on that path.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kafriel View Post
As it has been said before (perhaps in this forum, I don't remember), saving Greece is not an economical matter, but a political one. The fact that EU's grip on it has been tightening is an offensive move that should not be allowed to pass with no retribution, so if leaving the EU (not just switching currency) would mean at least causing some damage back to the people who put the country in this state in the first place. One could argue that it all started with corruption and unpaid loans, and of course they'd be correct, but there are very few countries that are debt-free and I don't see anyone breathing down their necks, so I hope you get my point.
Saving Greece is a political matter but it is an economical one too. I don't know the exact numbers but Europe has pumped very high amounts of money into Greece. Money that could have been been used to boost the economy of countries that aren't on the verge of collapse. Not to mention that every single person/company that invested into Greece will flat out lose the money which is not in the interest of neither the investors not Greece. Leaving the EU to 'at least cause some damage back' will make you happy for a few weeks and then you'll regret the absence of money deeply.

Last edited by Eisdrache; 2015-07-01 at 01:44.
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Old 2015-07-01, 02:28   Link #15
Cosmic Eagle
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http://www.theguardian.com/business/...eek-referendum
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Old 2015-07-01, 04:29   Link #16
JokerD
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle View Post
An analogy would be if a person spends so much on credit cards that the monthly pay would only be able to cover the interest payments to the banks. In this situation, would the creditors be persuaded to allow the person to continue the lifestyle which lead to the problem in the first place or demand payment to the debts owned before the person can spend? (A very flaw analogy I know since this is on a national level)

Looks like the Greece government is blinking:
NewsTsipras prepared to accept all bailout conditions
Remains to be seen if this is too late
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Old 2015-07-01, 05:01   Link #17
Cosmic Eagle
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Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
An analogy would be if a person spends so much on credit cards that the monthly pay would only be able to cover the interest payments to the banks. In this situation, would the creditors be persuaded to allow the person to continue the lifestyle which lead to the problem in the first place or demand payment to the debts owned before the person can spend? (A very flaw analogy I know since this is on a national level)

Looks like the Greece government is blinking:
NewsTsipras prepared to accept all bailout conditions
Remains to be seen if this is too late
More like....would the creditors allow the debtor the freedom to take actions which are necessary for him to even earn enough to begin to approach being able to pay the creditor back...or continue to be squeezed into the life of a hobo. Who will incidentally also never be able to repay anything

In this case, spending is needed for any major form of economic restructuring to even be carried out


Leaving is really the best option for Greece and the EU honestly. Neither side gains anything in the long run if the split doesn't occur
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Old 2015-07-01, 05:12   Link #18
Kafriel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eisdrache View Post
I don't really agree with the rest of your post either but assuming that everyone indeed stops trading with Greece the country will not simply switch to be self-sufficient. 11 million inhabitants aren't fed that easily not to mention that a lot of them will not accept the massive drop of living standard.

It would also mean a complete collapse of the state, meaning Greece won't just go back 2 decades but rather back to the stone age. How are you going to drive that car if there is no fuel? How are you going to operate that machine if there is no electricity? Who will pay your pension if there is no state? Along many more problems. There is no future for Greece on that path.
The so-called living standard is currently shit. I live in Athens and the crime rate is high (as in terrorists taking refuge 5 blocks from my house, in the suburbs, or my brother getting mugged 2 minutes away from home). The unemployment is much worse than you'd think, I got fired from my last job purely because of the last election results, the amount of beggars and homeless people has increased since last year and I don't know a single person who is actually happy with their lives right now. There is, however, the other side of the story...

I choose not to drive a car, although there are many quarries in the country (37% of the country's exports atm are mineral fuels), so fuel is not really an issue. Fuel and transport prices are the cheapest anyway (1 euro/day is the monthly cost of a multi-transport card, airport excluded, 1.3~1.6 euro/lt on unleaded), water is also cheap at 11~17 cents per 500ml bottle and as far as pension money goes, the elderly farmers back in my village actually have five-digit bank accounts and nothing to worry about. So, one should wonder, when life is so cheap, how can everyone be so damn miserable?

This pretty much answers that question, after all these years of living a very (VERY) simple life, people refuse to see what progress has been made, because of the attitude of the EU. It hasn't been all bad, you know. This can show you just how much has actually changed since Greece adopted the euro and IMO it was a good investment, there has been actual growth in many departments. Despite this, you hear people saying that Greece is just a moneysink...if they can't see this country's worth, we're better off without them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle View Post
More like....would the creditors allow the debtor the freedom to take actions which are necessary for him to even earn enough to begin to approach being able to pay the creditor back...or continue to be squeezed into the life of a hobo. Who will incidentally also never be able to repay anything

In this case, spending is needed for any major form of economic restructuring to even be carried out

Leaving is really the best option for Greece and the EU honestly. Neither side gains anything in the long run if the split doesn't occur
Pretty much this. Being held hostage on debt is not profitable for anyone, unless they have much darker intentions...in which case, there's no reason to keep it up.

Quote:
Saving Greece is a political matter but it is an economical one too. I don't know the exact numbers but Europe has pumped very high amounts of money into Greece. Money that could have been been used to boost the economy of countries that aren't on the verge of collapse. Not to mention that every single person/company that invested into Greece will flat out lose the money which is not in the interest of neither the investors not Greece. Leaving the EU to 'at least cause some damage back' will make you happy for a few weeks and then you'll regret the absence of money deeply.
I'd say it's debatable whether investors can be found elsewhere or not...
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Old 2015-07-01, 06:55   Link #19
JokerD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle View Post
More like....would the creditors allow the debtor the freedom to take actions which are necessary for him to even earn enough to begin to approach being able to pay the creditor back...or continue to be squeezed into the life of a hobo. Who will incidentally also never be able to repay anything

In this case, spending is needed for any major form of economic restructuring to even be carried out
Freedom, most likely not, would you trust a person with those spending habits with extra money? Remember this is not the first batch of money that was given to Greece, so I would argue that money had already been given for the economic restructuring (which shrank the economy, great job IMF )

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Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle View Post
Leaving is really the best option for Greece and the EU honestly. Neither side gains anything in the long run if the split doesn't occur
Agreed.
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Old 2015-07-01, 09:42   Link #20
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle View Post
Leaving is really the best option for Greece and the EU honestly. Neither side gains anything in the long run if the split doesn't occur
What? You crazy! What about my market volatility? The high value of euro! The cost of Finnish wolf lolis *IS SHOT*.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
Freedom, most likely not, would you trust a person with those spending habits with extra money? Remember this is not the first batch of money that was given to Greece, so I would argue that money had already been given for the economic restructuring (which shrank the economy, great job IMF )
I think the problem is that Greece does not have the ability to make money, thanks to its tagging to Euro, which is big as compared to other international currencies. That makes imports easy and exports difficult - Greece is not particularly well known for any of its exports. One of its major industries, which is hydrocarbon, collapsed under the shrinking price of crude.

Now you all know the reason why the Brits stuck to the pound. You can control your own currency and economy much better than being part of the bloc. It is better to have a major currency as a benchmark (like the USD) than to peg your economy against it.

Now here is an interesting piece by Brett Arends :

10 things they’re not telling you about the Greek crisis

Quote:
1. The Greeks have already tightened their belts even more than they were asked to. Since the bailout agreement five years ago, the Greek government has slashed spending, raised taxes and turned a primary government deficit (before debt interest) of 24 billion euros into a surplus of 3 billion euros. It has actually cut its debts even more than the bailout demand. No wonder the IMF itself called the austerity measures “exceptional by any standard” and hailed their “important progress” on reforms.

2. The real problem is that the Troika’s medicine has failed. The IMF initially predicted that austerity would spark a “V-shaped” economic recovery in Greece starting in 2011, thanks to “confidence effects (and) regained market access.” No, really. Those are actual quotes from the 2010 bailout document. The IMF predicted that, by 2014, the economy would be growing by more than 3% a year. “Unemployment is projected to peak at nearly 15 percent by 2012,” it said. Oopsie. So while the Greek government has slashed its debt, the economy has simply shrunk further.

3. The “experts” being quoted are all biased. Yes, there are lots of smart people on TV and the Internet are wagging their fingers at the Greeks right now. The problem? They pretty much all work in finance. So their focus is on things like stocks, bonds and other financial assets, not on bread-and-butter things like jobs and household incomes in places like Athens and Thessaloniki. Finance may indeed be important, but it’s certainly not everything.

4. Greece is already in a catastrophe. My jaw drops every time another expert claims that the Greeks face economic “disaster” if they stop paying money to the troika or leave the euro. Um, what? Gross domestic product has fallen 25% in eight years. Imports have fallen by 40%. The official unemployment rate is 25%. Disaster? That’s already happened.

5. A country cannot “generate” money by tightening its belt. Talks between the Greeks and the troika actually broke down over how far the Greek government should raise taxes or cut spending. Um, what? This is based on the fallacy of “single-entry bookkeeping.” Yet it is widely repeated, even by reputable news outlets. If a country raises taxes or cuts spending, it does not create money overall — it merely transfers it from one set of hands to another.

6. Yes, the Greeks could relaunch the drachma quite easily. The jeremiads are totally bogus. This sort of thing has been done before — for example, in many Eastern European countries after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The International Monetary Fund and other international institutions helped out back then, and the transition was successful and relatively painless. If they refuse to help the Greeks, it will be a deliberate act of malice.

7. Yes, the Greeks could be just fine without the euro. The Brits are. So are the Poles. So are the Scandinavians. And so are the Icelanders, who have recovered from the 2008 financial crisis in part because they control their own currency. Indeed, the IMF has actually admitted that Greece could have avoided such a depression if it still had the drachma and could simply devalue the currency. The idea that Greece needs the euro is rubbish.

8. No, the Greeks didn’t cause this crisis alone. Blame the Davos Darlings who pushed their beloved “euro” project on everybody, including countries such as Greece, for whom it was unsuited. That helped inflate the big debt bubble last decade. Since then, the Davos Darlings have been pushing their patented debt cure of bread, water and gruel — to no effect. You notice the Davos Darlings aren’t foolish enough to try their own medicine. In Brussels, Frankfurt, London and Washington, the diet instead runs to Lobster Thermidor, Oysters Rockefeller and Chateau d’Yquem.

9. Everyone should stop panicking. This crisis should be no big deal for the rest of the world. The Greek economy is about the size of Alabama’s. Markets have already written off most Greek financial assets. And the Greek crisis will only spread “contagion” if international policymakers let it. I appreciate some people like a good panic. But they should get a grip.

10. The troika’s proposed “cures” make no sense. Should Greece reform its pension system? Should it broaden and simplify its tax base? Should it privatize the ports? Sure, OK. But none of that will help get a million people back to work, earning and spending money. You might as well try treating a gunshot wound with “diet and regular exercise.” They’re not wrong — just completely irrelevant.
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Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.

Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2015-07-01 at 10:42.
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