HD wars redux

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by kujoe

It's an old model, but it's one that everybody can easily understand. iTunes succeeds due to its ease of use, but that's still in the realm of computers in a world where most people still watch things on their tv screen. Moreover, are the consumers properly wired up for such a new way of doing things? The infrastructure simply isn't there yet. We're in the road of connecting the two, but it's still relatively new territory for a lot of people out there. So yes, generation and demographics do matter. People who grew up with the internet will undoubtedly find all of this second nature compared to older folks.

If you are talking about consumer electronics you really have to move your perspective away from things like PCs. Sure with Intel and MS they would love the digital home to be centered around the PC (aka Home Server), but with Sony and other CE firms they discuss more of the meshed networks where everything adds to the digital home. The cell processor is an example of it. I'm not sure if they actually did implement it the way the earlier specs that were specified, but the idea was that all CE devices would have a processor, memory and storage inside them and they would all be able to use each others resources with no technical experience from the user. Bit like SETI but in your home.

Second nature is easily covered by not changing the UI too much. How many of you have digital TVs now? Much of a change? Not really. The UIs are very similar to what were are used to because they are designed in that way. Back-end tech is very much separated from UI.

In HK they don't really have much cable from what I gather, it is mostly TV over ADSL. Is it difficult? No it isn't, the engineer comes along gives you a micro-filter, they plug in a funky modem looking thing, give you a remote and bing bong you have tons of new channels to watch. Need to geek? None. Need to be smart, yes plenty, or you end up subscribing to premium channels automatically

Consumer electronics is a really tough business, MS found out how hard it is by the amount of loss they made on each unit they sold, but they were able to recover by selling their media. Media is king when it comes to profits for companies, hence their need to control it via DRM. Optical media offers them a level of control as it is a physical object, but nowadays it means squat as how easy is it to copy it.

If it was Sony who had iTunes and if they moved into video, I bet there would not be as much drive in pushing out BR. BR is a huge investment in replacing all the printing machinery, the interweb is required for other reasons as well and doesn't require direct investment in it by them.

[kujoe]

Originally Posted by grey_moon

If you are talking about consumer electronics you really have to move your perspective away from things like PCs....

I think you're misunderstanding me. We're basically just going in circles here. What I mean is, we're aware of this stuff already, but you cannot say the same thing for the general populace right now. Not always. It's not that the technology isn't moving at a certain pace, or getting easier. It's about people being used to a certain way of doing things. People are still buying their dvds (even pirated versions) while others download them through their computer. I think we're in a transition right now, and because of that we're not there yet.

Originally Posted by grey_moon

Second nature is easily covered by not changing the UI too much. How many of you have digital TVs now?

Good question. How many indeed?

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by kujoe

I think you're misunderstanding me. We're basically just going in circles here. What I mean is, we're aware of this stuff already, but you cannot say the same thing for the general populace right now. Not always. It's not that the technology isn't moving at a certain pace, or getting easier. It's about people being used to a certain way of doing things. People are still buying their dvds (even pirated versions) while others download them through their computer. I think we're in a transition right now, and because of that we're not there yet.

My point is new technologies are coming into the living room everyday and normal users don't need to be a geek to use them.

[Sides]

I personlly think that the decision will be final, as soon HD broadcasting is become standard. In that case, even with build-in HDD receivers, most people probably want a storage solution so that they can archive their TV recording and be able to take it to friends, collegues or relatives. So the first one with simple user interface and authoring solution, on stbs, will make the run. Obviously 2 things will be important for users, (no) heavy/complicated safetly stuff such DRM and storage space.
Of course other factors will/can deceide which format will come out as winner, such as support from cheap stb manufactures.

[kujoe]

Originally Posted by grey_moon

My point is new technologies are coming into the living room everyday and normal users don't need to be a geek to use them.

And I acknowledged that. I'm just saying, not yet ready for a mass scale from the average user point of view. Who knows? Maybe Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD will be the last physical format war ever. Maybe.

[hobbes_fan]

realistically the next format will last 10-20 years if history is anything to go by. That's 2020-2025, by that time the tech savvy teens will be the either finishing college or entering the workforce. They will be in a better position to drive the direction of consumer technology. Right now and in the next couple of years or so I really don't think you'll see much change. CD/DVD sales are steady, they're reducing but quite slowly. This generation of consumers is still tied to the 70's,80's, 90's method of distribution (dinosaurs like me included). The next generation is not (basically anyone 20 and under). They've grown up with readily available broadband internet, p2p, digital distribution.

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by hobbes_fan

realistically the next format will last 10-20 years if history is anything to go by. That's 2020-2025, by that time the tech savvy teens will be the either finishing college or entering the workforce. They will be in a better position to drive the direction of consumer technology. Right now and in the next couple of years or so I really don't think you'll see much change. CD/DVD sales are steady, they're reducing but quite slowly. This generation of consumers is still tied to the 70's,80's, 90's method of distribution (dinosaurs like me included). The next generation is not (basically anyone 20 and under). They've grown up with readily available broadband internet, p2p, digital distribution.

That again is dependant on country. Japan has had their version of HD over the air for a while, whilst UK is just bringing theirs in. China went S-VCD when the rest of the world went what? The popularity of mini-disk adoption was very much country specific, but broadly I would say USA and Europe pretty up match what you say, but Asia do not as they seem to love new things. But being anime fans I think we very much have to keep in mind what Asia follows.

[kujoe]

Japan is pretty much Blu-ray territory right now as far HD media is concerned. Considering that it's the home base of many major electronic manufacturers, what must happen is really one big paradigm shift from both the maker and consumer sides of the equation. And well, I can still imagine the otaku lining up for their gaming and anime fix. Collectors, especially. All those specialty shops will continue to exist, while others will fade away as new ones pop out of nowhere.

For now, this format war has to end if we ever want to get somewhere after this. If not, all that money put into this whole thing would've been for nothing.

[grey_moon]

Originally Posted by kujoe

For now, this format war has to end if we ever want to get somewhere after this. If not, all that money put into this whole thing would've been for nothing.

Ah the wonders of branding. Kinda like one of the theoretical reasons for Intel to compete against the OLPC. Also I guess in this situation there are the royalties for everyone who wants to support each format too. If I remember correctly when I was reading up about DVD players a few years ago, a quarter of the manufacture fees of a player were for the DVD format royalties. China were getting an arse whopping at the time for missed fees.

[SeijiSensei]

An article appeared at Slashdot today concerning NHK's proposed next-generation TV technology, which expands the screen by a factor of four over HDTV's 1920x1080 in each dimension, resulting in 16x as many pixels (some 33 million) being displayed.

Originally Posted by from the article

The broadcast standard will be able to travel along 260 kilometers of fiber optic cable and carry 16 different wavelength signals. The total bandwidth they have achieved in tests is 24 gigabit.

I guess I'll have something to spend my retirement funds on in 2015. Wall-sized anime, indeed!

[hobbes_fan]

That's cool but the biggest TV (discounting projectors) is retailing for something like 120kUSD (approx 6 ft by 8ft). I don't think the next generation of tv's will use either LCD or Plasma. OLED tech is a likely successor but 7yrs is a long time. (40" LCD/Plasma tech was retailing for 8-10k at the time of the 2001 sydney olympics.)

Also it's definite that there's a point where resolution has to be in ratio with size. Already 1080p is moot with TV's less than 40" so I'd imagine this is not really going to apply to anyone with a TV less than 60"

[Quarkboy]

But when we all have cybernetic eyes with 100 megapixel resolution in 2020 we'll be able to tell the difference!

[GHDpro]

The only problem is that because of the size and resolution of the screen, the picture will look so realistic it might cause motion sickness for some people when watching certain movies. Also according to Wikipedia, Ultra HD will have 22.2 audio (24 audio tracks!). How do they expect the average consumer to install 24 speakers in his living room? (Not to mention the minimum size the screen would be to notice the difference in quality from normal HDTV, as already mentioned)

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by Quarkboy

But when we all have cybernetic eyes with 100 megapixel resolution in 2020 we'll be able to tell the difference!

But if you want to see in detail how Legolas whips the ass of an orc somewhere 500ft in the background of a battlescene, you prasise the lord of hi-res for provding you the means to do it.

Originally Posted by GHDpro

The only problem is that because of the size and resolution of the screen, the picture will look so realistic it might cause motion sickness for some people when watching certain movies. Also according to Wikipedia, Ultra HD will have 22.2 audio (24 audio tracks!). How do they expect the average consumer to install 24 speakers in his living room? (Not to mention the minimum size the screen would be to notice the difference in quality from normal HDTV, as already mentioned)

Imo for motionsickness one would need a simulator. Heh, I want one.

Concering 33Mpixel resolution.. what is missing at the moment, is the quality of raws to meet that standard. Imo, today there is no film offering that resoulition. When I watch a movie in a cinema, I always try to identify the details, but even if the film is rather new, many things just blur out. So either they change the quality of the raws for the new technologies or there is no need for 33Mpixel showing a blurred scenery.

[hobbes_fan]

I'd like to see personally the reincarnation of the 3d hologram type concept (see starwars and pricess leia's message to obi-wan). Personally I think that we're at the limits of this way of watching movies (although I can just see the pervs having a field day with 3d ecchi/fanservice/porn ) It'd bring a new level of err interactivity

[grey_moon]

Heh I got sick watching Beauty and the Beast on iMax, I think if I could afford that beast I would also need a very long room so I can sit far away from it

[problemedchild]

We all need Pansonic's new 150" Plasma IMO

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by GHDpro

The only problem is that because of the size and resolution of the screen, the picture will look so realistic it might cause motion sickness for some people when watching certain movies. Also according to Wikipedia, Ultra HD will have 22.2 audio (24 audio tracks!). How do they expect the average consumer to install 24 speakers in his living room? (Not to mention the minimum size the screen would be to notice the difference in quality from normal HDTV, as already mentioned)

SurfaceSound might make that problem go away, if it works as nicely as they think it will. It's basically a material that conducts sound, and it seems like it's already been marketed for greeting cards, computers, and some Toyota cars. It turns the objects into speakers of sorts.

[lamer_de]

Well, most movies have digital intermediates of 2K (the english wikipedia doesn't seem to have an article about it, so here's a table of what it means in pixels from the German one http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/2K_%28Film%29 ), because that's near the resolution of 35mm film. Which means, 1080p is pretty damn near the resolution you get to see when you're in the cinema (Iirc there are like 10-20 movies with 4K intermediates as of now, although apparently Sony sells a 4K projector already: http://www.sony.co.uk/res/attachment...2517874712.pdf). So, I somehow doubt we'll see anything like 8K anytime soon, even less in consumer products. Also interesting to read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_cinema

[hobbes_fan]

Aren't OLED TV's supposed to be the next gen to replace plasma and LCD?