International Saimoe League 2009

[Demi.]

Originally Posted by Sonae

Actually, I think both of you messed up. I got 1458

lol, well try it again, and this time use a calculator.

[KholdStare]

Preliminary Round 2 (fixed)

Group A:

Total Votes: 1420
Good Performance: > 183.57
Bad Performance: < 74.61

14.65% Remilia Scarlet, 208
---
12.61% Sawatari Makoto, 179
12.46% Nagi, 177
12.32% Shinku, 175
10.14% Kōzuki Kallen, 144
9.79% Index, 139
8.87% Yin, 126
6.76% Amamiya Yūko, 96
---
5.00% Sakihata Rimi, 71
3.94% Shirakawa Kotori, 56
3.45% Miyamura Miyako, 49

Group B:

Total Votes: 1413
Good Performance: > 178.78
Bad Performance: < 78.13

14.37% Kirisame Marisa, 203
13.73% Kasuga "Osaka" Ayumu, 194
13.66% Anya Alstreim, 193
---
10.33% Ryōgi Shiki, 146
8.70% Yagami Hayate, 123
8.56% Minami Chiaki, 121
7.71% Nagase Minato, 109
7.64% Tsukamoto Yakumo, 108
6.37% Shindō Chihiro, 90
---
4.88% Sheryl Nome, 69
4.03% Vita, 57

Group C:

Total Votes: 1366
Good Performance: > 173.50
Bad Performance: < 74.86

16.84% Kushieda Minori, 230
---
12.23% Sunohara Mei, 167
11.64% Kamio Misuzu, 159
10.40% Nogizaka Haruka, 142
8.64% Ranka Lee, 118
8.57% Kagura, 117
8.27% Isayama Yomi, 113
7.39% Neliel Tu Oderschvank, 101
6.73% Misaka Shiori, 92
5.93% Yuno 81,
---
3.37% Miyako, 46

Group D:

Total Votes: 1403
Good Performance: > 175.59
Bad Performance: < 79.50

14.40% Patchouli Knowledge, 202
13.47% Chii, 189
12.83% Illyasviel von Einzbern, 180
---
10.05% Katagiri Yūhi, 141
9.12% Misaka Mikoto, 128
8.62% Alice Carroll, 121
8.48% Kawashima Ami, 119
7.84% Seto San 110,
6.13% Shihō Matsuri, 86
---
5.63% Aoba Tsugumi, 79
3.42% Zange, 48

Statistics:
Group with highest participation: Group A of Round 2, ∑ = 1420
Group with lowest participation: Group A of Round 1, ∑ = 1197
Most competitive group: Group D of Round 1, σ = 39.22
Least competitive group: Group A of Round 2, σ = 54.48

Characters with highest round 2 performance:

• Kushieda Minori: 15.35
• Patchouli Knowledge: 13.37
• Kirisame Marisa: 13.10
• Remilia Scarlet: 13.01
• Kasuga "Osaka" Ayumu: 13.66

Characters with highest total performance:

• Hakurei Reimu: 16.67
• Aisaka Taiga: 15.75
• Shameimaru Aya: 14.67
• Kirisame Marisa: 14.12
• Hinamori Amu: 13.96

Characters with lowest total performance:

• Sheryl Nome: 4.33
• Zange: 4.26
• Shirakawa Kotori: 4.08
• Miyako (Hidamari): 3.78
• Miyamura Miyako: 3.46

Characters with highest increased performance:

• Chii: +4.38
• Kasuga "Osaka" Ayumu: +4.10
• Illyasviel von Einzbern: +3.71
• Ranka Lee: +3.18
• Nogizaka Haruka: +2.41

Characters with highest decreased performance:

• Zange: -1.18
• Shindō Chihiro: -1.71
• Kirisame Marisa: -2.04
• Seto San: -2.47
• Vita: -3.35

[chaosprophet]

Originally Posted by Demi.

lol, well try it again, and this time use a calculator.

I believe Demi is right. There were one extra vote for Minori, one extra for Ranka and 100 extra for Miyako. 1468 - 102 = 1366.

Edit: KholdStare correct it when I was writing my post.

Anyway so a questio to everybody:

Who do you want to enter ISML from the remaining characters?

I would want Ilya, Osaka, Misaka, Hayate, Ami, Shinku, Nagi andIndex. Maybe Vita, Shiku and Ranka.

[Sonae]

Originally Posted by Demi.

lol, well try it again, and this time use a calculator.

Shut up! >> How do we even know the totals on the site are right? One missed vote could throw it off.

-leaves-

I shouldn't bother with this anyways. No one I want to win will.

[Mushi]

Originally Posted by KholdStare

However, right now, Touhou will be losing head-to-head.

If that's the case, then five slots are now gone to "losing" characters. Openings that could have gone to better established (more deserving, IMHO) anime characters.

Oh, well. The powers that be have already shoved that little snowball down a long mountain side. We'll see where it ends up. Strange things can happen depending on the swell of fans at any given time frame.

[KholdStare]

Originally Posted by Sonae

Shut up! >> How do we even know the totals on the site are right? One missed vote could throw it off.

-leaves-

I shouldn't bother with this anyways. No one I want to win will.

You do know that Anya is one of the ones almost guaranteed to enter the regular season right? Look at the "Non-Touhou with highest total performance:" section. Three of the five listed are already in. All Touhou characters are already in. Anya has a higher performance rating than Shinku. I think you can figure out what I'm trying to say right now.

[Ithekro]

There will always be a loser in head to head matches. It is the number of losses to wins that matters there. The Touhou girls will not be complete losers as they have a fanbase to lean on. They just may or may not make 0.500. I doubt any of them will go 0-63. In fact I doubt anyone this year will go 0-63.

[Sonae]

I know what you're saying. I'm saying that in all, Anya will not win. Anyways a year long is kind of too distracting. I'll probably check in every few days or so.

[Demi.]

Originally Posted by Chaosprophet

Who do you want to enter ISML from the remaining characters?

Hayate, Chii, Illya, Alice...err, and I guess that's it. Rest didn't get nominated or are already auto-qualified.

Originally Posted by Mushi

If that's the case, then five slots are now gone to "losing" characters. Openings that could have gone to better established (more deserving, IMHO) anime characters.

Oh, well. The powers that be have already shoved that little snowball down a long mountain side. We'll see where it ends up. Strange things can happen depending on the swell of fans at any given time frame.

I find your comments strangely amusing.

Originally Posted by KholdStare

You do know that Anya is one of the ones almost guaranteed to enter the regular season right? Look at the "Non-Touhou with highest total performance:" section. Three of the five listed are already in. All Touhou characters are already in. Anya has a higher performance rating than Shinku. I think you can figure out what I'm trying to say right now.

Go on...

[KholdStare]

Fine, Demi. I predict Anya and Shinku will win their respective groups in Round 3 if voting patterns continue and there is no massive hate voting.

[Mushi]

Originally Posted by Demi.

I find your comments strangely amusing.

At least they're good for something. It's just the despair talking.

[Team Rocket Elite]

My picks:
Sawatari Makoto - 2nd
Vita - 11th
Kamio Misuzu - 3rd
Patchouli Knowledge - 1st

Secondary picks:
Index - 6th
Kirisame Marisa - 1st
Miyako - 11th
Seto San - 8th

One of my primary picks and one of my secondary picks managed to advance. Marisa and Patchy advance to the main bracket. However for each advancing character, I also choose a choose a character that placed dead last. Vita and Miyako weren't doing well to begin with and the split votes just murdered them. My two Key picks did well but not quite well enough to advance. They should be able to advance soon. Seto San fell quite a bit from Round 1 to Round 2. It's difficult to say if she'll eventally make it through or not. Index did alright. She can advance if she gets a favorable match up in the later prelims.


My predictions for group winners:

Sawatari Makoto - 2nd
Kirisame Marisa - 1st
Kushieda Minori - 1st
Patchouli Knowledge - 1st

So, so close to a perfect prediction. If I was going to make a mistake, I knew it was going to be Group A. Remelia managed to not only outdo Shinku who beat her last round but also managed to steal first place. She did it with a few votes to spare, too. Nagi improves quite a bit in Round 2 and puts up a performace on par woth Shinku and Makoto.

Marisa wins Group B as I predicted, but not as convincingly as I had hoped. Anya and Osaka were Marisa's top 2 challengers as I expected. I originally thought Anya would be a tiny bit ahead of Osaka but they turned out to be pretty much equal(Osaka was up by 1). For the most part Group B went pretty close to what the stats called for. The only real exception was Vita who got murdered by split votes. However, Hayate actually exceeded expectations despite split votes. I have some hope that Hayate will advance but still no confidence in Vita.

Minori wins Block C with ease. As expected her top competiton were Misuzu and Mei who along with Shiori created a 3-way Key split vote. Despite that Misuzu and Mei still managed 2nd and 3rd place. Shiori doesn't fair as well. Both of Shiori's matches had Key split votes so we still don't know if Shiori has any actual power or not. I expected Yuno to get hurt by Hidamari split votes but she got absolutely killed. Yuno and Miyako end up taking the last two positions.

Group D was even more by the book than Group B with one exception. Seto San completely took a dive. Zange underperformed a bit as well but it looks like nothing compared to what happened to San. San was predicted to get 2nd but pulls a lousy 8th. Chii and Illya took up the challenge of stopping Patchy but Patchouli comes out the winner in the end.

Well I once said "Given favorable conditions and [the remaining Touhou character] might all be in by the end of Preliminary Match 2.". Well it came true and apparently the conditions didn't need to be all that favorable.

5 out of 5 characters in after 2 rounds of preliminaries. Touhou has been doing pretty well so far, hasn't it?

[Noe]

Alice, Illya, and Makoto getting in would be nice. o:

[Ithekro]

You are getting an early start on the despair I see.

So the numbers were off. Oh well. Then we may loose 50 or so voters for the remaining rounds. Still, with eight girls removed the remaining can divide up the rest fairly well. Check the nummbers and you'll find several close heats for second place this round. Those chacters will probably all gain entry over the course of the next five rounds.

That's right...five rounds. 19 spots to fill. There are 11 close to the top characters now...and 8 spot padding should be fine for all of them to get in at some point unless RNG (sort of) plays the groups just so for maximum despair.

[Sonae]

Well, I still have one more plan

[minhtam1638]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

There will always be a loser in head to head matches. It is the number of losses to wins that matters there. The Touhou girls will not be complete losers as they have a fanbase to lean on. They just may or may not make 0.500. I doubt any of them will go 0-63. In fact I doubt anyone this year will go 0-63.

Ever heard of a girl named Evangeline?

[Demi.]

Originally Posted by minhtam2448

Ever heard of a girl named Evangeline?

I would hope Eva can atleast defeat a few lower tier characters who make it via. prelims. If it where any other Negima character, I doubt it...But Eva has some kind of backing to atleast win one match, I think...

[Ithekro]

Another thought is that there are several people that are voting consistantly (as much as group selection will allow anyway) for characters that happen to be near the top presently. Once those characters are in, who knows where those voters will shift towards? The odds change at that point because the focused fire may focus someplace unexpected due to the voters' priorities. Someone that isn't doing so well now could do great in a round once the voter's primary choice has gotten in. Especially if it is one of the 150+ characters that gets in and nearly all of those voters switch to one of the 90 or less vote characters....a sudden +150 to 90 should equal an instant win.

(As for Evangeline...from what I understand she just came back in the manga...so her fan base might still be out there..lurking)

[Mushi]

1000!

[Ithekro]

Filling in for Qtip? Or following tradition?

(1000!

...via handwavium?)