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Old 2011-08-29, 08:39   Link #3461
Coldlight
Sayaka★Magica
 
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu View Post
i've given up on isml a long time ago. but is there a way for kanade NOT to win???? because the gods know how much i want her defeated. let me just laugh when that happens. LOL
Of course there is a way. You start by not giving up on ISML as you claim yourself to have done (yet you post about this meaning you DO care ). The one and only way is to make it happen by voting against her in matches yourself, then pray to your gods that more people like you vote against her than there are people like me who vote for her. The gods also know how much I want her to win, you know.


ARENA 01: [Nakano Azusa] Shiina Mafuyu
ARENA 02: Kōsaka Kirino [Laura Bodewig]
ARENA 03: [Katsura Hinagiku] Furukawa Nagisa
ARENA 04: [Tachibana Kanade] Fujibayashi Kyō
ARENA 05: Holo [Index L. Prohibitorum]
ARENA 06: Hiiragi Kagami [Eucliwood Hellscythe]
ARENA 07: Asahina Mikuru [Hirasawa Yui]
ARENA 08: [Kuroi Mato] Victorique de Blois
ARENA 09: [Senjōgahara Hitagi] Fate Testarossa
ARENA 10: Izumi Konata [Saber]
ARENA 11: [Hirasawa Ui] Shinonono Hōki
ARENA 12: Suzumiya Haruhi [Aragaki Ayase]
ARENA 13: [Last Order] Akiyama Mio
ARENA 14: Kasugano Sora [Charlotte Dunois]
ARENA 15: Seraphim [Konjiki no Yami]
ARENA 16: [Tōsaka Rin] Shirai Kuroko
ARENA 17: [Shana] C.C.
ARENA 18: [Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)] Shiina
ARENA 19: [Yui] Huang Lingyin
ARENA 20: Louise Valličre [Sengoku Nadeko]
ARENA 21: [Misaka Mikoto] Kotobuki Tsumugi
ARENA 22: [Nagato Yuki] Sanzen'in Nagi
ARENA 23: [Aisaka Taiga] Iwasawa Asami
ARENA 24: Nymph [Nakamura Yuri]
ARENA 25: Haruna [Sakagami Tomoyo]
ARENA 26: Illyasviel von Einzbern [Matō Sakura]
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Old 2011-08-29, 08:51   Link #3462
Triple_R
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eater of All View Post
Unlike in sports though, contestants in ISML are much more consistent in strength.
Tell that to the 2000-2002 LA Lakers, the 1998-2003 NY Yankees, and the 1970s Montreal Canadiens.


Quote:
I'm not saying their strength don't fluctuate, but it certainly fluctuates much less, and are therefore more predictable.
For the very top two or three girls, yes, probably. So your first two or three necklace winners are probably going to be predictable.

But SDO isn't really helping that, and I don't know if anything could.

You argued that most people thought that Kanade would defeat Mikoto in spite of SDO. That might have been true, but I think that people have learned an important lesson there - The lesson that if one character has an insane 18 point SDO advantage over her closest competitor in actual strength, then that's it, game over, why even hold the match?

If freakin' Kanade can't overcome that, nobody can. You don't think people will remember this come 2012 ISML matches? I can say that I myself will not care one scintilla about a Necklace finale match where one of the characters has a 9 or greater SDO advantage over all her other competitors, because she has it in the bag before it even begins. I might even not bother to vote.

Also, the Mikoto victory in Aquamarine simply helped pave the way to the most horribly one-sided Necklace finale match ever. Ion is right: The Topaz Necklace finale was probably the worst Necklace finale match ever. And SDO played a huge role in making it happen.

Finally, Kanade won one of the first two necklaces, and Mikoto won the other one. This is probably what people would have expected even if SDO played no role whatsoever in the outcomes of Necklace finale matches.


Now, let's see what role SDO is playing in the more recent Necklace finale matches...

There's a key statistical truth being conveyed this year: A substantial SDO advantage (9 or more, say) over your toughest competitor in actual strength just about guarantees a necklace win. Mikoto and Taiga's victories make that abundantly clear.

SDO also can turn matches that could be interesting 3 or even 4-way battles into 2-person battles, as was the case with the Amethyst necklace finale: Everybody knew only Yuki or Eucliwood had any chance whatsoever at winning it. Without SDO, Amethyst's necklace finale may very well have turned into a more unpredictable Yuki vs. Shana vs. Eucliwood three-way affair.

I would argue that the strongest ISML girls this year are actually pretty close after the top two or three. I think that if we had no SDO this year, that the last three Necklace finale matches would have actually been more unpredictable than what they ultimately ended up being. Take away Taiga's SDO edge for Emerald, and it becomes a real competition, involving two KugRie girls and two K-On girls and three other girls that could conceivably "come up the middle" to win. But with Taiga's SDO edge, it became a foregone conclusion that she would win.


Quote:

Close matches only happen between girls who are already close in strength, not between girls who have an established distance apart.
Generally speaking, true. But anime sequels/prequels involving one or more of the competitors (like the upcoming Shana III and Fate/Zero) can cause a bounce, or can cause a decline if the competitors in question come off poorly in the sequel/prequel.


Quote:
Whether or not it's popular doesn't affect my arguments for it. And hey, maybe my arguments will actually make it more popular. *shrugs*
Fair point.


Quote:

I've seen past ISMLs, and I still think this system is the best, at least so far.
That may be so, but I don't think the ISML staff has even tried Necklace finale matches determined strictly by vote count, have you? So how can you know, for certain, how the current system would compare to the one I'm advocating for until you try the one I'm advocating for? All we can do is speculate and hypothesize over what difference no SDO impacting Necklace finale matches would make, and based on my own speculations, it would make for more unpredictable matches, at least in the later Necklace periods.


Maybe you should see how the system I'm advocating would play out for a year - You might just end up being surprised. Many overestimated Kanade's strength for Aquamarine, so maybe you're also overestimating the strength difference between the various Tier 1 girls.


Quote:
Maybe if the staff has found a better system, they can definitely move to that one.
Hopefully.


Quote:
I see luck as a natural cure to predictability, and predictability is IMO a pretty bad thing in something like this.
Not if you overvalue luck. If you overvalue luck, you simply make things predictable in a different way.


Quote:
...Far from what I want to be then.
My apologies then. It was meant mostly in jest.


Quote:
In that scenario she does. The point is that someone who fought through the top dogs have more "right", or "distinction", to earn the necklace than someone else who reached the same page by going through easy opponents.
But this is simply a matter of luck. The girl who went through easier opponents may very well have done just as good as the girl who went through more "top dogs" if they simply exchanged schedules.

Frankly, I want to know which girl is the strongest for a given period. I don't particularly want to know which girl happened to draw the most opportunistic matches. I'm much more impressed with the former than I am the latter.


Quote:

If there's some sort of secondary necklace, sure why not. That's worth rewarding, but the primary reward should go to who was strong AND gave more effort.
Ok, then here is an idea.

Award one necklace per period for the girl with the best SDO X Vote calculation, and award a different piece of jewelry (a Championship ring would seem fitting to me ) to the girl who gets the most votes in the Necklace finale.


Quote:
So in summary, you want it to work like checkpoint matches to determine who is the strongest currently, and the necklace goes to the current champion?
Ideally, yes.


Quote:

Your idea has some merit, and it has some unpredictabilty due to fluctuation over time. But not enough. It still seems too predictable. Even with the one-necklace rule, I can't see the necklaces going outside of top 8, and the worst part is that even the order would be predictable.

I don't see how the current system is more predictable than your system.
That's why I made the arguments earlier on in this post that I did.

I really do think that you and some members of the ISML Staff are overestimating the strength difference between some of the top girls in ISML. I also think that you're underestimating the "chaos factor" unpredictability inherent in 7-way matches. The irony is that SDO is actually largely negating that chaos factor, as fans of the girls with significant SDO disadvantages going into the match may not even bother to vote for them because SDO has ruled them out before the match has even begun. If all the competitors going into a Necklace finale match started from the same point, with no handicaps, then strange things could happen. You could see a girl unexpectedly "come up the middle" (especially in a scenario where, say, the KugRie vote is split and/or the K-On vote is split). SDO actually makes such strange upsets less likely, imo.


Quote:

Not if everyone knows who's going to get what. An Aqumarine that Kanade could've grasped easily hardly feels as precious as an Aquamarine that Mikoto defied all expectations to get, IMO.
Again, Mikoto only "defied all expectations" because people drastically underestimated the power of SDO when its applied to Necklace finale matches. People aren't going to drastically underestimate it forever. In fact, after Mikoto and Taiga's wins this year, most people will now realize that a substantial SDO advantage going into a match is a guaranteed win scenario.

So SDO might have created the false perception of unpredictability for a while this year (which, admittedly, is almost as good as the real thing), but that won't continue forever.


Quote:

Ok, in more practical terms, she had a harder period. Therefore, she got the cookies she deserved.
I disagree. I think that the girl who gets the most votes in the match against all the strongest of her competitors should win "the cookies".


Quote:
Because doing so (with your method, in any case; I'd gladly agree if you can find something that satisfies your criteria and is unpredictable) would make uninteresting championships.
I disagree. I think the last few Necklace finale matches would have been more interesting without SDO. That is my honest assessment.

Now, as for something that satisfied my criteria and is unpredictable... Why do you think I recommended a replacement system?

If you keep replacing competitors through out the year - removing the girls that constantly lose, and replacing them with brand new popular girls like Homura, Ohana, Menma, and Erio - then you create total unpredictability. Mikoto vs. Homura, Shana vs. Ohana, Yuki Nagato vs. Menma, Kuroneko vs. Erio... these would be wild, at least somewhat unpredictable, matches.

The introduction of these new girls would make Necklace finale matches later in the year almost total crapshoots, and yet, it would still reward the strongest girl for that period if you also, at the same time, scrapped SDO.


Quote:

When I looked from the start of Emerald, I saw that there was a 96% chance that either Shana or Azusa would win it (I made the exact percentage jokingly, but I meant the percentage to be around there).

Of course, maybe I just suck at predicting, but SDO certainly made Emerald more unpredictable for me.
Overall predictability is less important, in my opinion, then match-by-match predictability. The Emerald finale was very predictable once Taiga's SDO advantage was known.
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Old 2011-08-29, 09:16   Link #3463
RegalStar
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I personally don't care if there are 5 or 7 or 13 or however many other necklaces, but I think a lot of people would care about that, since less necklaces mean less people have a shot at it, on top of the fact that we'd have more people next year under this proposal.
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Old 2011-08-29, 10:32   Link #3464
melange
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Staff are and will be continuing to discuss how necklace matches work, including how to lessen the impact of SDO within the necklace match. However, the things that are more important to discuss now is :-
  1. the fundamental proposal of two divisions,
  2. the determination of newcomer/veteran,
  3. the 'return' rule allowing remade series to be considered newcomer, and
  4. what to do about new characters appearing in old series.
All this talk on necklaces and how SDO affects it is all very good, but we're starting to put the cart before the horse, since if ISML2012 changes to two divisions it changes the way necklace matches work fundamentally (if they are cross matches between the two divisions)

There was talk about Two division vs keeping one division and having a replacement system:-
Unfortunately I don't think a replacement system midway in a round robin can work out fairly at all. Consider things such as the soccer leagues in Europe, they do have a avenue for replacing the bottom teams with other teams but this only happens once a full season is run and every team has faced every other team and its been determined for certain that those are the very worst. This is how any replacement system should be done, after running thru the full season and fairly determining the bottom of the pack. If it is done halfway, you could end up with characters who due to a quirk in the schedule meet really strong opponents at the beginning of the season and lesser opponents at the back, being penalized and kicked out.

determination of newcomer/veteran has been between the time-based rule and an appearance based rule:-
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=3439
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=3440
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=3445
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=3446

return rule is supposed to allow characters with long ago series which are 'remade'/'revamped' in a newer series for a newer audience to be considered 'newcomers' (as they will be 'new' to these new audiences) i don't recall seeing any comment on it here.. but there has been this comment in the ISML forums.
http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/f...t=2247#p104983

the last rule is written to allow new characters who have appeared in series considered veterans to be allowed into the newcomer division where new faces belong..

in essence the discussion for now should concentrate on the area in blue below and once that is determined stuff like the necklaces can be discussed on firmer ground.

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Old 2011-08-29, 12:06   Link #3465
Sphire
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I understand that you want to move the discussion on. But I'm gonna bring it back one last time. I apologise if I come across hard-headed or a pain in the ass. I do this only because I actually like ISML, but looking at next years proposal, I seriously wonder if I would return.

I'm gonna make a proposal here. And if you guys think it's crap then so be it, I won't be offended. And I'll try to help with comments about your proposal. This would be easier with pictures, and if I have time, I'll show you what I mean.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melange View Post
There was talk about Two division vs keeping one division and having a replacement system:-
Unfortunately I don't think a replacement system midway in a round robin can work out fairly at all. Consider things such as the soccer leagues in Europe, they do have a avenue for replacing the bottom teams with other teams but this only happens once a full season is run and every team has faced every other team and its been determined for certain that those are the very worst. This is how any replacement system should be done, after running thru the full season and fairly determining the bottom of the pack. If it is done halfway, you could end up with characters who due to a quirk in the schedule meet really strong opponents at the beginning of the season and lesser opponents at the back, being penalized and kicked out.
That is true, and I would like to hear Triple R's proposal too, but here is mine. It is of course open to changes.

I propose a 2 division, 2 season ISML that allows for replacements, that also fulfills the round-robin, 7 necklaces (if you want) and the tiara fundamentals.

1. Division of characters is divided by strength ie Div 1 is top Tier characters, while seasons are divided into 3 periods each.
2. Each period is still 7 matches.
3. Number of characters will be reduced to 22 per division, 44 overall.
4. As such, first season will have 21 matches over 3 periods, giving a full season (Everyone in each division would have faced each other).
5. Bottom 5-10 characters from Div 1 get relegated into Div 2, while top 5-10 from Div 2 get promoted to Div 1.
6. Bottom 10 from Div 2 get eliminated entirely, to be replaced by 10 new replacement characters.
7. New characters are chosen by some sort of 2-slot nomination akin to prelims just before or when season 1 ends.
8. Season 2 thus starts with those changes, and carries on for 3 more periods. At the end of season 2, something like top 10 from Div 1 and top 6 from Div 2 go into post-season SE making 16 characters overall (this can be increased to 24 with by's for the top 8 in Div 1)

Pros and Cons (note these will vary between people).
1. There will be...I think ~55 repeat matches in Div 1. But honestly, is having 2 Kanade vs Shana matches worst than Kanade/Shana vs Laura Bodewig? (no offense to Laura fans)
2. You don't get a full year round-robin. A big sacrifice?
3. As you see, there are only 6 periods, meaning 6 necklaces, so what about that 7th since I said we could keep all 7? Why not give Diamond to the Div 1 winner at the end of season 2? Something actually worth while. Not just as reward for the character, but reward for the voters who cared to vote throughout the year. We all know some people only turn up for the post-season.
4. Post-season SE will not be complicated, just do as this year really.
5. New characters can't face top tiers during regular season/season 2, but can in post-season.
6. You might actually get new characters into the tournament, the Homuras, Elsies, Ohanas and Erios of this year. It'll depend on the voters
7. Fodder characters get eliminated.
8. Less characters. Only 44 at a time (54 overall really). But looking at the bottom 10 of this year, is it that bad?
9. You get competitive matches almost every round. More so than this year, more so than what has been proposed for next year. And don't competitive matches draw bigger votes?
10. No messing around trying to figure out eligibility criterias.
11. I've not listed how necklaces would go, but I imagine whatever you guys think up for your current proposal, it should work for mine here technically. I think.

I think that really sums most of it up. There might be more pros/cons. If that has major flaws or is just bad, then so be it, I'll move on. But consider it at least.
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Last edited by Sphire; 2011-08-29 at 16:07. Reason: bad calculation mistake
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Old 2011-08-29, 12:09   Link #3466
Triple_R
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melange View Post

There was talk about Two division vs keeping one division and having a replacement system:-
Unfortunately I don't think a replacement system midway in a round robin can work out fairly at all. Consider things such as the soccer leagues in Europe, they do have a avenue for replacing the bottom teams with other teams but this only happens once a full season is run and every team has faced every other team and its been determined for certain that those are the very worst. This is how any replacement system should be done, after running thru the full season and fairly determining the bottom of the pack. If it is done halfway, you could end up with characters who due to a quirk in the schedule meet really strong opponents at the beginning of the season and lesser opponents at the back, being penalized and kicked out.
I understand and respect what you're writing here.

I certainly wouldn't advocate turning over half the roster mid-season, as that would be brutally unfair, and could even knock out a girl that could conceivably pull off a stunning upset later on.

However, right now, we have six girls with 3 or fewer wins. Does anybody honestly think either of these girls have any shot whatsoever of winning anything of value this year?

Even if a girl has the incredible misfortune of meeting each and every competitor from the top half of the roster (and not one from the bottom half) if she can't muster up more than 3 wins in her first 24 or so matches, then she's at absolute best the 22nd strongest girl in the competition, which means she has no real chance of winning anything.

My suggestion is that you assign a elimination cutoff point that's applied mid-season, right after the 4th (of 7) necklace period. That cutoff point would be set somewhere between 4 and 7 wins - The highest you feel would not be intolerably unfair. Any girl below that cutoff point is removed from the 50, and has to be replaced by a newcomer. Now, we can use special exhibition matches to determine who the newcomers will be, or we can just use J-SaiMoe results as auto-qualifiers for mid-season replacements.


Now, let's say we were to apply a cutoff point of 5 wins, right now. That would mean that Seraphim, Nymph, Kasugano Sora, Haung Lingyin, Shinonono Hoki, Shiina, and Laura Bodewig would all be gone.

Anybody here think either of these girls have any chance of winning anything the rest of the year?

If not, let's say you removed them, and replaced them with Homura, Ohana, Menma, Erio, and three other new girls that are doing well in J-SaiMoe and/or ISML exhibition matches. Instantly, the competitions would get much more interesting, and less predictable. You don't need to turn over half your roster, just enough of it to make a difference.


The above being said, the 2-division may be feasible. The key downside to it is that it might prevent certain matches from ever happening that people would like to see. But then, the 2-division format would have its positives as well, I admit, such as possibly increasing the value of Necklace matches if those are always inter-divisional, providing our first real taste of newcomers vs. vets.

May I also say, just as an aside, that if you go with that, you've worked in all the unpredictability you need. Some of these newcomers would be facing veterans for the first time ever (or the first time in a very long time), giving at least some unpredictability to the match, as long as there's no severe handicaps in place, of course.
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Last edited by Triple_R; 2011-08-29 at 12:20.
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Old 2011-08-29, 12:35   Link #3467
KholdStare
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I'm glad to know you mostly like it. And yes, necklaces will actually be interesting now since they are the only way to gauge vets vs. newcomers until the tiara.

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Old 2011-08-29, 14:14   Link #3468
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So much serious business going on here.
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Old 2011-08-29, 15:38   Link #3469
Game8910
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ISML is not a sport
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Old 2011-08-29, 15:44   Link #3470
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeroryoko1974 View Post
So much serious business going on here.

Saimoe always was, and probably will remain to be a serious business.
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Old 2011-08-29, 15:52   Link #3471
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Hmm interesting match next round, Kōnagi Yui vs Sakura Kyōko; I definitely found Yui to much more moe character, even if I like Kyōko more; wonder if Yui has a chance though .

Other matches that I am not sure who will win Kagami vs Holo and the clannad rival match of Kyou vs Tomoyo.
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Old 2011-08-29, 15:56   Link #3472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Game8910 View Post
ISML is not a sport
ISML is a competition. Sports are also competitions. It's perfectly legitimate to hold ISML up to the standards of competition set by the much, much more well-known, established, and long-standing pro sports realm.
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Old 2011-08-29, 15:59   Link #3473
Rajura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wontaek View Post
I prefer 5 necklace instead of 7 necklace since we will only have 35 matches in the regular season this time. 5 necklace period of 7 matches a period looks better compared to 7 necklace periods of 5 matches.
I would laugh if Shana did not win Ruby this year... and it turns out Ruby were to be eliminated next year!***



***Simply because of the obsession of people to have her win and then the sick twist that it would not be able to be won.
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:04   Link #3474
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They just want to see her in her red dress.
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:07   Link #3475
Game8910
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
They just want to see her in her red dress.
is that so much to ask!?
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:09   Link #3476
Rajura
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Originally Posted by Game8910 View Post
is that so much to ask!?
The same could be asked of my desires...
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:20   Link #3477
Sphire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konakaga View Post
Hmm interesting match next round, Kōnagi Yui vs Sakura Kyōko; I definitely found Yui to much more moe character, even if I like Kyōko more; wonder if Yui has a chance though .
Definitely interesting. I'll probably back Kyouko, seeing as I liked her most from PMMM. Yui's decent nonetheless.
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:28   Link #3478
Akito Kinomoto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rajura View Post
I would laugh if Shana did not win Ruby this year... and it turns out Ruby were to be eliminated next year!***



***Simply because of the obsession of people to have her win and then the sick twist that it would not be able to be won.
Please don't jinx that possibility.
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:44   Link #3479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
we can just use J-SaiMoe results as auto-qualifiers for mid-season replacements.
To function as a completely independent Moe Competition, I would highly suggest to not depend on results from the other two Saimoe Majors (Anime Saimoe and KBM).

Quote:
Originally Posted by wontaek
Saimoe always was, and probably will remain to be a serious business.
With massive butthurt and tears. The more of that stuff, the better.
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Old 2011-08-29, 16:53   Link #3480
Ithekro
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Also at that point in the year, Saimoe is just starting up...only thing you might have is the preliminary groups done.
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