International Saimoe League 2013

[KanbeKotori]

Arena 01: ギルガメッシュ 聖川真斗 レド [槙島聖護] 松岡凛 夜神月
arena 02: 赤羽雷真 アリババ・サルージャ 折原臨也 櫻田純 橘真琴 [うちはイタチ]
arena 03: [アリス・カラー] 土方十四郎 キョン 七瀨遙 名瀬博臣 [十神白夜]
arena 04: エドワード・エルリック [五河士道] 御子柴清十郎 苗木誠 [ 棗恭介] 奥村燐
arena 05: 一ノ瀨 トキヤ エルエルフ・カルルスタイン 直枝理樹 [岡崎朋也] [逆廻十六夜] 坂田銀時
arena 06: ドラえもん [比企谷八幡] エル・ローライト [佐藤潤] 高須竜児 滝川吉野
arena 07: 相川步 リヴァイ ロイ・マスタング [先島光] 月詠幾斗 [碓氷拓海]
arena 08: 一方通行 平和島静雄 狛枝凪斗 黒子テツヤ 龍崎怜 逆卷アヤト
arena 09: 寅丸星 射命丸文 霊烏路空 [ミスティア・ローレライ] 比那名居天子 [アリス・マーガトロイド]
arena 10: 多々良小傘 四季映姫・ヤマザナドゥ [パチュリー・ノーレッジ] 上白沢慧音 [フランドール・スカーレット] 橙
arena 11: 八雲藍 東風谷早苗 火焔猫燐 伊吹萃香 [茨木華扇] [藤原妹紅]
arena 12: 八雲紫 八意永琳 永江衣玖 [魂魄妖夢] 河城にとり [犬走椛]

[Frailty]

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato Ledo Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin [Yagami Light]
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin [Alibaba Saluja] [Orihara Izaya] Sakurada Jun Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō [Kyon] Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi [Togami Byakuya]
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō [Naegi Makoto] Natsume Kyōsuke Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein Naoe Riki [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi [Sakata Gintoki]
ARENA 06: [Doraemon] [Hikigaya Hachiman] L Lawliet Satō Jun Takasu Ryūji Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu [Levi] [Roy Mustang] Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya Reiuji Utsuho [Mystia Lorelei] Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: [Yakumo Ran] [Kochiya Sanae] Kaenbyō Rin Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku [Konpaku Yōmu] Kawashiro Nitori [Inubashiri Momiji]

Doraemon > all

[FlavoryFantasy]

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato [Ledo] Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja [Orihara Izaya] [Sakurada Jun] Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color [Hijikata Toshirō] [Kyon] Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō Naegi Makoto [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya [L-elf Karlstein] Naoe Riki [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon [Hikigaya Hachiman] L Lawliet Satō Jun [Takasu Ryūji] Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu Levi [Roy Mustang] Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: Accelerator [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei [Hinanawi Tenshi] [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: [Yakumo Ran] Kochiya Sanae Kaenbyō Rin Ibuki Suika [Ibaraki Kasen] Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Yagokoro Eirin [Nagae Iku] Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

For once I remembered to vote, and post here...

[Archaeon]

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato Ledo Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin [Yagami Light]
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja [Orihara Izaya] Sakurada Jun Tachibana Makoto [Uchiha Itachi]
ARENA 03: Alis Color [Hijikata Toshirō] [Kyon] Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō [Naegi Makoto] Natsume Kyōsuke Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein Naoe Riki [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi [Sakata Gintoki]
ARENA 06: Doraemon [Hikigaya Hachiman] [L Lawliet] Satō Jun Takasu Ryūji Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: [Aikawa Ayumu] Levi [Roy Mustang] Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato

[Triple_R]

Arena 1 was surprisingly hard. Good call on the part of whoever decided to load it up with good-to-great antagonistic/villainous characters. I might have went a bit further with it myself, and swapped Ledo with L-Elf in Arena 5. Still, nice match-up!

My vote for Jun in Arena 2 is based primarily on Adult!Jun in the latest Rozen Maiden anime.

I suspect recent LB! episodes might hurt Kyousuke in Arena 4...

We're getting pretty deep into the Touhou cast now, where I recognize few of the names, so it's abstain-ing time for me.


ARENA 01: Gilgamesh Hijirikawa Masato Ledo [Makishima Shōgo] Matsuoka Rin [Yagami Light]
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja Orihara Izaya [Sakurada Jun] [Tachibana Makoto] Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō [Kyon] [Nanase Haruka] Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō [Naegi Makoto] [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya [L-elf Karlstein] Naoe Riki [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon Hikigaya Hachiman [L Lawliet] Satō Jun [Takasu Ryūji] Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu Levi [Roy Mustang] [Sakishima Hikari] Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] Heiwajima Shizuo Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya [Ryūgazaki Rei] Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran Kochiya Sanae Kaenbyō Rin Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

[CrowKenobi]

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato [Ledo] Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin [Alibaba Saluja] Orihara Izaya Sakurada Jun [Tachibana Makoto] Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō [Kyon] [Nanase Haruka] Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō Naegi Makoto Natsume Kyōsuke [Okumura Rin]
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein [Naoe Riki] [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: [Doraemon] Hikigaya Hachiman L Lawliet Satō Jun [Takasu Ryūji] Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: [Aikawa Ayumu] Levi Roy Mustang Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto [Usui Takumi]
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō [Shameimaru Aya] Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran Kochiya Sanae Kaenbyō Rin Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori [Inubashiri Momiji]

[npal]

ARENA 01: Gilgamesh Hijirikawa Masato [Ledo] Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja Orihara Izaya [Sakurada Jun] Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: [Alis Color] Hijikata Toshirō Kyon Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi [Togami Byakuya]
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō Naegi Makoto [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya [L-elf Karlstein] Naoe Riki Okazaki Tomoya Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon [Hikigaya Hachiman] L Lawliet [Satō Jun] Takasu Ryūji Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: [Aikawa Ayumu] [Levi] Roy Mustang Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: Accelerator Heiwajima Shizuo Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya [Reiuji Utsuho] [Mystia Lorelei] Hinanawi Tenshi Alice Margatroid
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu Patchouli Knowledge [Kamishirasawa Keine] Flandre Scarlet Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran Kochiya Sanae [Kaenbyō Rin] Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku [Konpaku Yōmu] Kawashiro Nitori [Inubashiri Momiji]

Yeah, I know, I abstained from some, and I just picked a bit at random for Touhou based on the portraits

[Ichuki]

ARENA 01: Gilgamesh Hijirikawa Masato Ledo Makishima Shōgo [Matsuoka Rin] Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja Orihara Izaya [Sakurada Jun] [Tachibana Makoto] Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō Kyon [Nanase Haruka] [Nase Hiroomi] Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō [Mikoshiba Seijūrō] [Naegi Makoto] Natsume Kyōsuke Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein [Naoe Riki] Okazaki Tomoya Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: [Doraemon] [Hikigaya Hachiman] L Lawliet Satō Jun Takasu Ryūji Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu Levi Roy Mustang [Sakishima Hikari] [Tsukiyomi Ikuto] Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: Accelerator Heiwajima Shizuo Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya [Ryūgazaki Rei] Sakamaki Ayato
(Rei-nyan)

ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō [Shameimaru Aya] Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: [Yakumo Ran] Kochiya Sanae Kaenbyō Rin [Ibuki Suika] Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori [Inubashiri Momiji]

[Ahasuerus]

ARENA 01: Gilgamesh Hijirikawa Masato [Ledo] Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin [Yagami Light]
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja [Orihara Izaya] [Sakurada Jun] Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō [Kyon] Nanase Haruka [Nase Hiroomi] Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō Naegi Makoto [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein [Naoe Riki] [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon Hikigaya Hachiman [L Lawliet] Satō Jun [Takasu Ryūji] Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu [Levi] [Roy Mustang] Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō [Shameimaru Aya] Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: [Yakumo Ran] Kochiya Sanae [Kaenbyō Rin] Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Yagokoro Eirin [Nagae Iku] Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

[mistress_kisara]

ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Hijirikawa Masato] Ledo Makishima Shōgo [Matsuoka Rin] Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin [Alibaba Saluja] Orihara Izaya Sakurada Jun [Tachibana Makoto] Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: Alis Color Hijikata Toshirō Kyon [Nanase Haruka] [Nase Hiroomi] Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō [Mikoshiba Seijūrō] [Naegi Makoto] Natsume Kyōsuke Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: [Ichinose Tokiya] [L-elf Karlstein] Naoe Riki Okazaki Tomoya Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon [Hikigaya Hachiman] L Lawliet Satō Jun Takasu Ryūji [Takigawa Yoshino]
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu [Levi] Roy Mustang Sakishima Hikari [Tsukiyomi Ikuto] Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: Accelerator Heiwajima Shizuo Komaeda Nagito [Kuroko Tetsuya] [Ryūgazaki Rei] Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi Alice Margatroid
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu Patchouli Knowledge Kamishirasawa Keine Flandre Scarlet Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran Kochiya Sanae Kaenbyō Rin Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari Yagokoro Eirin Nagae Iku Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

[RegalStar]

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato Ledo Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin Yagami Light
ARENA 02: [Akabane Raishin] Alibaba Saluja Orihara Izaya Sakurada Jun Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: [Alis Color] Hijikata Toshirō [Kyon] Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō Mikoshiba Seijūrō Naegi Makoto [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: Ichinose Tokiya L-elf Karlstein [Naoe Riki] [Okazaki Tomoya] Sakamaki Izayoi Sakata Gintoki
ARENA 06: Doraemon Hikigaya Hachiman L Lawliet [Satō Jun] [Takasu Ryūji] Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu Levi Roy Mustang [Sakishima Hikari] Tsukiyomi Ikuto [Usui Takumi]
ARENA 08: [Accelerator] Heiwajima Shizuo Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei Sakamaki Ayato
ARENA 09: [Toramaru Shō] [Shameimaru Aya] Reiuji Utsuho Mystia Lorelei Hinanawi Tenshi Alice Margatroid
ARENA 10: [Tatara Kogasa] Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu [Patchouli Knowledge] Kamishirasawa Keine Flandre Scarlet Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran Kochiya Sanae [Kaenbyō Rin] Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen [Fujiwara no Mokō]
ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] [Yagokoro Eirin] Nagae Iku Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

[Team Rocket Elite]

Spoiler for Votes:

Gilgamesh
Yagami Light
Alibaba Saluja
Orihara Izaya
Hijikata Toshirō
Kyon
Edward Elric
Natsume Kyōsuke
Okazaki Tomoya
Sakata Gintoki
Hikigaya Hachiman
Takasu Ryūji
Aikawa Ayumu
Roy Mustang
Accelerator
Heiwajima Shizuo
Hinanawi Tenshi
Alice Margatroid
Patchouli Knowledge
Flandre Scarlet
Kochiya Sanae
Ibuki Suika
Yakumo Yukari
Konpaku Yōmu

[Rajura]

Disclaimer is still in effect...

ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Hijirikawa Masato [Ledo] Makishima Shōgo Matsuoka Rin Yagami Light
ARENA 02: Akabane Raishin Alibaba Saluja [Orihara Izaya] Sakurada Jun Tachibana Makoto Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: [Alis Color] [Hijikata Toshirō] Kyon Nanase Haruka Nase Hiroomi Togami Byakuya
ARENA 04: Edward Elric Itsuka Shidō [Mikoshiba Seijūrō] Naegi Makoto [Natsume Kyōsuke] Okumura Rin
ARENA 05: [Ichinose Tokiya] L-elf Karlstein Naoe Riki Okazaki Tomoya Sakamaki Izayoi [Sakata Gintoki]
ARENA 06: Doraemon Hikigaya Hachiman L Lawliet Satō Jun Takasu Ryūji Takigawa Yoshino
ARENA 07: Aikawa Ayumu Levi [Roy Mustang] Sakishima Hikari Tsukiyomi Ikuto Usui Takumi
ARENA 08: Accelerator [Heiwajima Shizuo] Komaeda Nagito Kuroko Tetsuya Ryūgazaki Rei [Sakamaki Ayato]
ARENA 09: Toramaru Shō Shameimaru Aya Reiuji Utsuho [Mystia Lorelei] Hinanawi Tenshi [Alice Margatroid]
ARENA 10: Tatara Kogasa Shiki Eiki Yamaxanadu Patchouli Knowledge [Kamishirasawa Keine] [Flandre Scarlet] Chen
ARENA 11: Yakumo Ran [Kochiya Sanae] [Kaenbyō Rin] Ibuki Suika Ibaraki Kasen Fujiwara no Mokō
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari [Yagokoro Eirin] [Nagae Iku] Konpaku Yōmu Kawashiro Nitori Inubashiri Momiji

[Team Rocket Elite]

Not too surprisingly, the rest of Free also looks pretty bad. Gilgamesh and Light appear to be in their usual form. I didn't know anything about Raishin so I underesitmated him by a lot. He's not fodder but not strong enough to advance either. I expected Izaya to be a bit stronger than Itachi but the reverse was true. Not really a huge shift, though. Haruka doesn't look as bad as the rest of Free but still not great. Kyon might be a bit weaker now but it could be a lot worse since Haruhi is just getting older right now. Shidou was my pick for second place and he nearly drops it. Not quite the dominance shown by the female Date A Live characters but it's not bad. Izayoi looks pretty good as well but similarly doesn't dominate like the other Mondaiji characters. I guess this is an all time tournament and not a seasonal tournament so it is a lot harder to put up really big performances. Doraemon actually did have a lot of voters. I didn't really expect that. It's pretty nice to see. Hachiman had a good performance but not enough to advance. I'm happy with it, though. Levi looks to be in the running to win the whole tournament. It's a sizable win in a strong group. Roy and Takumi were top 20ish last year and Ayumu seems to have risen to their level. Even if they fell a bit, Levi still looks really good. It's hard to really figure out the last group. You get two votes and there are only 3 characters that aren't really weak. It's probably an alright performance for Accelerator and Shizuo.

Wow, Mystia did really well in her match. I expected her to be one of the weaker Touhou characters. I can't believe Aya did so badly. Alice having so much trouble winning was also surprising. I'm happy to see Tenshi advance. Keine getting that close to Patchouli is another surprising result. Otherwise the second Touhou match looks fine. Kasen advancing was really unexpected for me. I though Sanae would win without much trouble with Mokou behind her. Yukari and Youmu winning the last match was expected and they didn't have much trouble. Yukari is my favourite Touhou character so I'm hoping she goes deep in the tournament.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by wontaek

1. Yes. If there was only one instance where we had the character peak or dip for a period, then that might be mere luck or accident. If you have several of them do that, then we really need to worry. For SDO, the performance for entire period is much more important compared to merely one match for the opponents. If a character usually go 1 - 6, and the character does 1 - 6 again for the period, then it is possible to consider that sole victory as something expected from that character.

2. In ISML, it is rare to have a character's strength level change by the week. It usually takes at least a month for any change to fully manifest itself. So, if a character was weak in period 3 but strong in period 5, then at period 4, that character would be in some sort of Schrodinger's Cat like situation where she would be in weak/strong overlap case, where the opponent and the situation may make her look very weak in one match while rather strong in another. To push Quantum Mechanics/Logistic Regression talk a bit further, you can say a character's expectation value for her strength is slowly changing, but it is hard to know that while the change is occurring, because the wave-function collapse/expression of result is bit polar, either definitely weak or strong. ( Note: You can consider every match to be case for wave function to collapse/results to be expressed, thus you might have series of alternating cases of strong and weak while things are in transition ) You have to look at the whole thing in long term to understand that the expected value was in transition.

3. In case of TRE's prediction, what I want is the residues = actual percentage - predicted percentage. For example, if TRE predicted 54% for character A, but that character got 48%, then the residue from that match would be 48 - 54 = -6% . For Regular season matches in 2013, TRE posted 19 predictions in each round for the purpose of Fantasy games. That means, excluding Emerald period, since Emerald period is what we really want to investigate, our control sample is the 4 other period * 7 rounds * 19 predictions = 532 predictions which can be compared to the actual results. This means we can have 532 residue values calculated as Actual - Predicted. For those 532, I want to know the (1) mean, (2) STDEV (3) Median ( 4 ) The 10th percentile ( or 25th percentile if you want more text book stem-leaf plot ) , and (5) the 90th percentile ( or 75th ) value. Once we have these 5 values, we can then assign probability for each of the 7 events in the question that also have TRE's posted predicted value. If (1) - (5) shows that whole thing can be generalized as normal distribution and (2) STDEV value indeed is near 3% as per my guess, then we can definitely claim the deviation of 6% is something you expect to see once or twice every match day, thus it is more likely that Mikoto was unlucky compared to any large group of people deliberately working to sink Mikoto's chances. This statement can be disproved if (2) STDEV value is less than 2% ( Because that will make P ( |Z| > | observed value | ) too small ) or while the whole distribution can't be generalized as normal distribution, deviation greater than 6% still was something very unlikely in those 532 data points.

4. Faction campaigning to have people vote in a way they like isn't breaking any rules. Campaigning is encouraged. If they use computers to break the 1 vote 1 person principle, then they would be breaking rules. We hope that for all the votes, there exists an unique individual that can say " Yes, I knew I would be voting for AAA,......., ZZZ when my vote was submitted. "

-------------------------

After typing all this, I feel like playing the role of Bohr, Heisenberg, Schrodinger, and Born against Einstein in insisting there is no Hidden Variable in QM and that "god does play dice with ISML world" . Heck, I can stretch quantum entanglement analogy to some ISML situation, though they aren't that interesting here.

1, 2. True. A sudden peak/dip might be attributed to some OVA/movie/series/episode that put the character in a very good/bad light. But then, only if the character does not fall/rise drastically back to original levels. Still, there are those who may take advantage of this fluctuation, so it's hard to say. However, I don't think it needs quantum physics to explain. In fact, if even one fluctuation happens out of sequence that cannot be explained, it's less likely to be a random fluctuation, and more likely to be manipulation.

However, as to whether it really can be explained as random fluctuations if it only happens once or twice a period, I'm still not sure.

3. Manipulators are more likely to be in more or less fixed numbers, so using absolute numbers of votes for a certain character, independent of how many voters voted for who, would be more accurate for finding manipulation. On the other hand, random fluctuation should be calculated by percentage of votes for a certain character. Calculating for suspected manipulation should be using a combination of these two, not the way TRE calculates it. It's different from the first calculation, because unlike numbers of manipulators, percentages vary by match. Eg. 3000+100 voters and 6000+100 voters, the 100 due to being manipulators. It's also different from the second calculation, because the number of votes for a certain character determines the fluctuation (the higher the number, the greater the fluctuation of votes). E.g. 3000±90 voters would have the same fluctuation as 6000±180 voters, because the fluctuation is 3% for both characters.

Consider 2 cases of match-ups with 10000 voters total. Case 1 has 5000 voters each voting for A and B, case 2 has 2600 voters voting for C and 7400 voters voting for D. Next, assume the accepted fluctuation for each voting fanbase to be ±5%. Assume no manipulation.

First, consider case 1. The worst case scenario for A (and best case scenario for B) will be 95% of projected voters, or 4750 voters voting for A, and 105% of projected voters, or 5250 voters voting for B. This gives 47.5% of voters voting for A and 52.5% of voters voting for B; a 2.5% fluctuation. Not 5%. Of course, for the best case scenario for A (and worst case scenario for B), just flip the numbers.

Next, consider case 2. The worst case scenario for C (and best case scenario for D) will be 95% of projected voters, or 2470 voters voting for C, and 105% of projected voters, or 7770 voters voting for D, giving a total of 10240 voters. The % voting for C will be exactly 24.12109375% in this case, a deviation of 1.87890625%. Ditto for D, which will gain exactly the same percentage, to get a total of 75.87890625%.

Now, the best case scenario for C is 105%, or 2730 voters voting for C, and
95%, or 7030 voters voting for D, with a total of 9760 voters. We get 27.97131...%, or 1.97131...% more. Again, D loses this percentage of votes. We notice here that the percentages are different, and smaller than in case 1.

It's clear from here that using residue percentages is only accurate when the score is close to 50-50. At larger differences, TRE's method actually fails.

As to the actual calculations, I don't have time to do it now so I'll do it in the next post or two. What I can say first though, is that it ends with the number of manipulating voters, being set as the gradient of a best fit straight line graph.

Unless you added them together and you decided that it's more or less equal to what this current system is using?

4. I see. So it's equivalent to doping in real life sports.

That said, in most cases where they can't prove that an athlete is doping (especially when said athlete declares having not doped), the athlete is given the benefit of the doubt. And when they're found out later... their titles are stripped. Like what happened to Lance Armstrong.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

1, 2. True. A sudden peak/dip might be attributed to some OVA/movie/series/episode that put the character in a very good/bad light. But then, only if the character does not fall/rise drastically back to original levels. Still, there are those who may take advantage of this fluctuation, so it's hard to say. However, I don't think it needs quantum physics to explain. In fact, if even one fluctuation happens out of sequence that cannot be explained, it's less likely to be a random fluctuation, and more likely to be manipulation.

However, as to whether it really can be explained as random fluctuations if it only happens once or twice a period, I'm still not sure.

3. Manipulators are more likely to be in more or less fixed numbers, so using absolute numbers of votes for a certain character, independent of how many voters voted for who, would be more accurate for finding manipulation. On the other hand, random fluctuation should be calculated by percentage of votes for a certain character. Calculating for suspected manipulation should be using a combination of these two, not the way TRE calculates it. It's different from the first calculation, because unlike numbers of manipulators, percentages vary by match. Eg. 3000+100 voters and 6000+100 voters, the 100 due to being manipulators. It's also different from the second calculation, because the number of votes for a certain character determines the fluctuation (the higher the number, the greater the fluctuation of votes). E.g. 3000±90 voters would have the same fluctuation as 6000±180 voters, because the fluctuation is 3% for both characters.

Consider 2 cases of match-ups with 10000 voters total. Case 1 has 5000 voters each voting for A and B, case 2 has 2600 voters voting for C and 7400 voters voting for D. Next, assume the accepted fluctuation for each voting fanbase to be ±5%. Assume no manipulation.

First, consider case 1. The worst case scenario for A (and best case scenario for B) will be 95% of projected voters, or 4750 voters voting for A, and 105% of projected voters, or 5250 voters voting for B. This gives 47.5% of voters voting for A and 52.5% of voters voting for B; a 2.5% fluctuation. Not 5%. Of course, for the best case scenario for A (and worst case scenario for B), just flip the numbers.

Next, consider case 2. The worst case scenario for C (and best case scenario for D) will be 95% of projected voters, or 2470 voters voting for C, and 105% of projected voters, or 7770 voters voting for D, giving a total of 10240 voters. The % voting for C will be exactly 24.12109375% in this case, a deviation of 1.87890625%. Ditto for D, which will gain exactly the same percentage, to get a total of 75.87890625%.

Now, the best case scenario for C is 105%, or 2730 voters voting for C, and
95%, or 7030 voters voting for D, with a total of 9760 voters. We get 27.97131...%, or 1.97131...% more. Again, D loses this percentage of votes. We notice here that the percentages are different, and smaller than in case 1.

It's clear from here that using residue percentages is only accurate when the score is close to 50-50. At larger differences, TRE's method actually fails.

As to the actual calculations, I don't have time to do it now so I'll do it in the next post or two. What I can say first though, is that it ends with the number of manipulating voters, being set as the gradient of a best fit straight line graph.

Unless you added them together and you decided that it's more or less equal to what this current system is using?

4. I see. So it's equivalent to doping in real life sports.

That said, in most cases where they can't prove that an athlete is doping (especially when said athlete declares having not doped), the athlete is given the benefit of the doubt. And when they're found out later... their titles are stripped. Like what happened to Lance Armstrong.

1. Our IP records show that between every match, thousands of votes disappears, and thousands of votes either reappears or shows up for the first time. With this great number of fluctuation, I highly doubt size of manipulators to be fixed.

2. TRE posted percentages. I used his numbers because (1) it isn't mine, (2) it is posted before the match started , (3) and we have enough of them to do a meaningful analysis. Also, the definition of residue is as follows

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errors_..._in_statistics

A residual (or fitting error), on the other hand, is an observable estimate of the unobservable statistical error.

You are making your claim about 50-50 based on another of your assumption about things changing only 5% of base value, of which there is no supporting data. It also is several steps beyond what I claimed, which is that deviation of 6% away from TRE's predicted percentage happens about once every round. The best way to refute this is also the simplest way : To show that either deviation of greater than 6% reliably happens more than twice every match day, or reliably happens less than once every two match day. There is no need to bring in any fancy argument: just plain simple counting the number of cases where you have deviation greater 6%, and then comparing it to total number of predictions TRE made.

Specifically, what I am asking you to do is a Chi-squared test for variance in a normal population ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_test ), with assumption that square root of the true variance is about 3% ( note : if we simply use -6 for case predicted is 54% and actual is 48%, instead of -0.06 , this would mean we are assuming true variance to be 9 . This should be more manageable compared to using 0.0009 ). After VARIANCE of all the Residue is calculated, you can plug the whole thing into http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experim...s/chiCalc.html <- here and see what the probability is. If the probability is less than 0.05, then it is likely that my assumption of 3% as stdev of the TRE's model's residue value is wrong. If it is wrong, then the next step would be to find the 95% confidence interval for the variance, thus STDEV, using the program in that same webpage. With that confidence interval, we can have good idea how often 6+% deviation should occur. ( http://www.stat.purdue.edu/~tlzhang/...chapter7_4.pdf ) This is the FORMAL way to get the idea of the variance which is CENTRAL to the question at hand, as I am arguing for large variance to randomly occur every day , while those who suspect purposeful manipulation needs to claim this variance from purely random reason to actually be small. For this, I hope to demonstrate that variance is large in necklace period not in question.

3. Doping is illegal in Sports. It is written in to the rules governing the sports. Faction campaigning is NOT illegal. Faction campaigning is not breaking any rules. Best analogy to doping in ISML is multivoting by using various softwares and scripts. I do believe we caught most of these doping cases in ISMl. Sure some might have went through some cracks in our defense, but unlike sports which is mostly small number of people vs small numbers, ISML is about thousands of voters. The records from multivotes we have caught strongly suggest that even our multivoters are so diverse, that they actually mirror the real legit people voting. It is rare to have the VF% for a character significantly differ between the votes we have thrown away for obviously being doped multivoting, and those we have accepted as likely to be clean votes. ( Yes, to prove this, I have done the proper F-test in numerous cases. ) SDO manipulations, if done by purely real human voting, is an unavoidable part of these events. Even in knock-out events like Saimoe, you have factions deliberately trying to torpedo or assassinate a promising character before they become a threat to their favorite(s) . As long as necklace feels important to the people, people will try the hardest to manipulate the necklace score by asking other people to vote in certain way. I believe the profound diversity of the voter characteristics have prevented these manipulations from getting really out of hand. ( If it did, we should have more cases similar to Sakurazaki Setsuna of 2008 )

[exec]

ARENA 01: [Kirigaya Kazuto] Hinata Hideki
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate]
ARENA 03: Lelouch Lamperouge [Kanda Sorata]
ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi
ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta]
ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao]
ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō
ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke
ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno]
ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Rūmia]
ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko
ARENA 12: [Remilia Scarlet] Reisen Udongein Inaba
ARENA 13: [Kurahashi Riko] Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami
ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura
ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos Kosaka Chihiro [Mushibugyō]
ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki

[Archaeon]

ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Ayasaki Hayate]
ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata
ARENA 04: [Oreki Hōtarō] Hatake Kakashi
ARENA 05: Otonashi Yuzuru [Togashi Yūta]
ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao]
ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō
ARENA 08: [Araragi Koyomi] Akasaka Ryūnosuke
ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Abstained] Cirno
ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Abstained] Rūmia
ARENA 11: Izayoi Sakuya [Abstained] Saigyōji Yuyuko
ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Abstained] Reisen Udongein Inaba
ARENA 13: [Kurahashi Riko] Miyu Edelfelt Totori Kagami
ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura
ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos [Kosaka Chihiro] Mushibugyō
ARENA 16: [Kirakishō] Komichi Aya Mori Yuki

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by wontaek

1. Our IP records show that between every match, thousands of votes disappears, and thousands of votes either reappears or shows up for the first time. With this great number of fluctuation, I highly doubt size of manipulators to be fixed.

2. TRE posted percentages. I used his numbers because (1) it isn't mine, (2) it is posted before the match started , (3) and we have enough of them to do a meaningful analysis. Also, the definition of residue is as follows

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errors_..._in_statistics

A residual (or fitting error), on the other hand, is an observable estimate of the unobservable statistical error.

You are making your claim about 50-50 based on another of your assumption about things changing only 5% of base value, of which there is no supporting data. It also is several steps beyond what I claimed, which is that deviation of 6% away from TRE's predicted percentage happens about once every round. The best way to refute this is also the simplest way : To show that either deviation of greater than 6% reliably happens more than twice every match day, or reliably happens less than once every two match day. There is no need to bring in any fancy argument: just plain simple counting the number of cases where you have deviation greater 6%, and then comparing it to total number of predictions TRE made.

Specifically, what I am asking you to do is a Chi-squared test for variance in a normal population ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_test ), with assumption that square root of the true variance is about 3% ( note : if we simply use -6 for case predicted is 54% and actual is 48%, instead of -0.06 , this would mean we are assuming true variance to be 9 . This should be more manageable compared to using 0.0009 ). After VARIANCE of all the Residue is calculated, you can plug the whole thing into http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experim...s/chiCalc.html <- here and see what the probability is. If the probability is less than 0.05, then it is likely that my assumption of 3% as stdev of the TRE's model's residue value is wrong. If it is wrong, then the next step would be to find the 95% confidence interval for the variance, thus STDEV, using the program in that same webpage. With that confidence interval, we can have good idea how often 6+% deviation should occur. ( http://www.stat.purdue.edu/~tlzhang/...chapter7_4.pdf ) This is the FORMAL way to get the idea of the variance which is CENTRAL to the question at hand, as I am arguing for large variance to randomly occur every day , while those who suspect purposeful manipulation needs to claim this variance from purely random reason to actually be small. For this, I hope to demonstrate that variance is large in necklace period not in question.

3. Doping is illegal in Sports. It is written in to the rules governing the sports. Faction campaigning is NOT illegal. Faction campaigning is not breaking any rules. Best analogy to doping in ISML is multivoting by using various softwares and scripts. I do believe we caught most of these doping cases in ISMl. Sure some might have went through some cracks in our defense, but unlike sports which is mostly small number of people vs small numbers, ISML is about thousands of voters. The records from multivotes we have caught strongly suggest that even our multivoters are so diverse, that they actually mirror the real legit people voting. It is rare to have the VF% for a character significantly differ between the votes we have thrown away for obviously being doped multivoting, and those we have accepted as likely to be clean votes. ( Yes, to prove this, I have done the proper F-test in numerous cases. ) SDO manipulations, if done by purely real human voting, is an unavoidable part of these events. Even in knock-out events like Saimoe, you have factions deliberately trying to torpedo or assassinate a promising character before they become a threat to their favorite(s) . As long as necklace feels important to the people, people will try the hardest to manipulate the necklace score by asking other people to vote in certain way. I believe the profound diversity of the voter characteristics have prevented these manipulations from getting really out of hand. ( If it did, we should have more cases similar to Sakurazaki Setsuna of 2008 )

1. I should think that, over a certain period of time, the number of manipulators tends to a constant. Still, if you say so, I can drop this part for a different calculation.

2. The % amounts I used, are the assumed maximum possible accepted fluctuations. 5% was just an estimate. I forgot to add that it could be any amount; 5% was simply an example, nothing more. When I did my first calculations, it was 3%. What is the maximum you accept, again? I'll base my future calculations on that.

I'm not calculating the residual (that was left to the above point), I'm calculating the statistical error (which I presume you call the residue) using a different method from TRE's. (At least, if not now, in a future step.) TRE used a simple ±%, which I felt was inadequate and only really captured a specific case. The links you posted only dealt with N ± ΔN, and the only thing this applies to would be the number of voters (which fluctuates a lot more). Here, we are dealing with X% ± ΔX%, which will need more complex calculations.

3. I didn't mean faction campaigning (which is perfectly legal; it's equivalent to training in the sport), I meant using computers "to break the 1 vote 1 person principle". That is the equivalent of doping.

And that's the reason why I say that Saimoe only needs one round. All characters into a free-for-all, and all you need to care about is the multivoters.

[npal]

ARENA 01: Kirigaya Kazuto [Hinata Hideki]
ARENA 02: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Ayasaki Hayate
ARENA 03: [Lelouch Lamperouge] Kanda Sorata
ARENA 04: Oreki Hōtarō [Hatake Kakashi]
ARENA 05: [Otonashi Yuzuru] Togashi Yūta
ARENA 06: Eren Yeager [Maō Sadao]
ARENA 07: [Katsuragi Keima] Yatogami Kurō
ARENA 08: Araragi Koyomi [Akasaka Ryūnosuke]
ARENA 09: Hakurei Reimu [Cirno]
ARENA 10: Kirisame Marisa [Abstained] Rūmia
ARENA 11: [Izayoi Sakuya] Saigyōji Yuyuko
ARENA 12: Remilia Scarlet [Reisen Udongein Inaba]
ARENA 13: Kurahashi Riko [Miyu Edelfelt] Totori Kagami
ARENA 14: [Kuroki Tomoko] Nepgear Yamato Yura
ARENA 15: Dee Ensy Stratmitos Kosaka Chihiro [Mushibugyō]
ARENA 16: Kirakishō [Komichi Aya] Mori Yuki