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 AnimeSuki Forum International Saimoe League 2013

NOM.

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 28
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iamadooddood After my exam tomorrow? I should be able to give a satisfactory answer by Friday night or Saturday morning. (And study for other exams after that; my exam schedule is ridiculous.)
I finished writing out the formula and all the workings half a day ago, and would have posted here much earlier if not for the fact that my laptop charger stopped working properly.

Problem with my formula is, I typed everything on Microsoft Word 2010 by inserting equations everywhere so everything looked neater, but the formatting's not going to work here. Is there anywhere I can upload my workings? Word or PDF is fine.

But for now, I'll post the final results I got:

For a given match, let the predicted voter numbers for the 2 characters to be x and y respectively. Let the fluctuations be +Δx and -Δy respectively. Then, we have actual vote numbers as x + ∆x and y - ∆y respectively. The fluctuation percentages are (∆x/x)*100% = x'% and (∆y/y)*100% = y'% respectively. We now let x'' = x'/100 = ∆x/x and y'' = y'/100 = ∆y/y respectively.

Let the predicted vote percentages be [x/(x+y)]*100% = X% and [y/(x+y)]*100% = Y% respectively. Again, x/(x+y) = X/100 = X' and y/(x+y) = Y/100 = Y'. Let the difference between predicted and actual be Z% such that the actual percentages are (X+Z)% and (Y+Z)% respectively. Finally, we let Z/100 = Z'.

We note that for each specific match, x, y, X, Y, Z, X', Y' and Z' are constants, whereas x', y', x'' and y'' are not. (Tip: things are easier to calculate once you realise that x+y = total number of votes.)

General formula: {[Z(x+y)^2]/xy}% = {[y - Z'(x+y)]/y}x'% + {[x + Z'(x+y)]/x}y'%

Special case 1 (Fluctuations of the same magnitude in opposite directions; the smallest possible fluctuations i.e. x' = y'): x'% = y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/(2xy/Z' + y^2 - x^2)}%

Special case 2 (Only x fluctuates i.e. y' = 0): x'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/x[y/Z' - (x+y)]}%

Special case 3 (Only y fluctuates i.e. x' = 0): y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/y[x/Z' + (x+y)]}%

I must say, things would have been much easier if it was possible to include absolute numbers of voters as well... but that is too much to ask for, isn't it?

On another note: my exam went without a hitch — albeit only just. Finished the last question with 30 seconds to spare.

I'll see if I can do anything about the hybrid SDO-VD/VF system I talked about earlier.
__________________
When life gives you lemons... enjoy reading them.

Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 is screwed up. Everyone's argument is invalid.

 2013-11-23, 04:51 Link #1882 KholdStare ISML Technical Staff Graphic Designer     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Phoenix, AZ Age: 32 We will be hosting a VN tournament in 2014, so please nominate now in ISML Forums. __________________ Kholdy's MAL, ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama

Join Date: Oct 2010
Quote:
How are you going to obtain the initial values for x, y, Δx, Δy, and how are you going to adjust them?

 2013-11-23, 13:35 Link #1884 wontaek Senior Member     Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Planet Earth Age: 51 Anyway, I really think we should consider using absolute value instead of percentages for over/under in the Vegas Fantasy. Please tell me how you feel about this, Team Rocket Elite and RegalStar. __________________
 2013-11-23, 14:52 Link #1885 RegalStar Mishaguji-sama     Join Date: Oct 2010 Absolute vote number is dependent on absolute number of people who vote, which is a factor that's affected by so many random things (interesting match present, school, holidays, ISP going down due to a fire, large group of Taiwanese schoolgirls suddenly showing up for one match then disappearing in the next, natural disasters, what you have) that it's effectively impossible to perdict.
wontaek
Senior Member

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 51
Quote:
 Originally Posted by RegalStar Absolute vote number is dependent on absolute number of people who vote, which is a factor that's affected by so many random things (interesting match present, school, holidays, ISP going down due to a fire, large group of Taiwanese schoolgirls suddenly showing up for one match then disappearing in the next, natural disasters, what you have) that it's effectively impossible to perdict.
I totally agree. Still, for the mere fantasy game purpose, if TRE can supply us with set of numbers that turned out to be over the actual number 40 ~ 60% of the times, that is a usable number no matter how he arrived at the numbers. For the fantasy game purpose, guesses based on intuition will suffice.

Also, no matter how the number was predicted, if the prediction was made before the actual event, and it is over the actual number 40 ~ 60% of the times, then it can be used as a baseline for analysis, provided that sample we are analyzing is of sufficient size. This means that while you can't use this number to ask why Emerald Round 7's XXX's vote is under the predicted, you can use these numbers to ask why XXX's vote was usually below the predicted for the entire Emerald Necklace Period. The hope here is that, if you have sufficient large number of control sample and sufficiently large number of cases within data sample you wish to analyze, all the factors you didn't account for, can't control, or randomly changes will cancel each other out.

We can even decide whether such analysis is possible or not if (1) TRE is willing to give us absolute number predictions, and (2) We do this for the entire 35 rounds of Regular season and then look at the mean, median, STDEV, 10th percentile, and 90th percentile value of actual - predicted values. If STDEV is large, mean very far away from median, or one of the percentile values be far off from what you guess based on mean and STDEV values, then indeed, it would be better to not to do any further analysis based on these predicted values. If STDEV value is small compared to mean and median ( both of which needs to be close to each other ), and guess of 10th percentile and 90th percentile values based on the mean and STDEV values is close to the actual percentile values, then we can safely decide the these predicted values are useable, and do further analysis based upon it.
__________________

NOM.

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 28
Quote:
 Originally Posted by RegalStar How are you going to obtain the initial values for x, y, Δx, Δy, and how are you going to adjust them?
Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match.

As for Δx and Δy, that's what I'm calculating in the first place (or at least, a form of it; x'% = (∆x/x)*100% and y'% = (∆y/y)*100%). But I can't give details on my workings unless I have someplace to upload them to. Does the ISML site have such a place?
__________________
When life gives you lemons... enjoy reading them.

Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 is screwed up. Everyone's argument is invalid.

RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama

Join Date: Oct 2010
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iamadooddood Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match.
I thought they were supposed to be the perdicted VF of the two girls?

 2013-11-24, 10:16 Link #1889 Archaeon Senior Member   Join Date: Oct 2012 ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Orihara Izaya ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Uchiha Itachi] ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: Levi [Heiwajima Shizuo] ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Accelerator] ARENA 09: Patchouli Knowledge [Abstained] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Abstained] Flandre Scarlet ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Abstained] Konpaku Yōmu ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari [Abstained] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: [Abstained] Akatsuki Fino Bloodstone Koto ARENA 14: [Nase Mitsuki] Rachel Alucard Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: Miyauchi Renge [Charlotte Belew] Celia Cumani Aintree
 2013-11-24, 10:44 Link #1890 exec Senior Member   Join Date: Jul 2009 ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Orihara Izaya] ARENA 02: [Yagami Light] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: [Levi] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: [Usui Takumi] Accelerator ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: [Fujiwara no Mokō] Konpaku Yōmu ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: Akatsuki [Fino Bloodstone] Koto ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki Rachel Alucard [Mankanshoku Mako] ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree
 2013-11-24, 10:51 Link #1891 RegalStar Mishaguji-sama     Join Date: Oct 2010 ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Orihara Izaya ARENA 02: [Yagami Light] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: Levi [Abstained] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: [Usui Takumi] Accelerator ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: [Fujiwara no Mokō] Konpaku Yōmu ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: Akatsuki Fino Bloodstone [Koto] ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki Rachel Alucard [Mankanshoku Mako] ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree
 2013-11-24, 10:52 Link #1892 hinakatbklyn Senior Member   Join Date: Nov 2009 ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Orihara Izaya] ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Uchiha Itachi] ARENA 03: Kyon [Itsuka Shidō] ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: [Sakamaki Izayoi] Takasu Ryūji ARENA 07: Levi [Heiwajima Shizuo] ARENA 08: [Usui Takumi] Accelerator ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu] ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: Akatsuki [Fino Bloodstone] Koto ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki [Rachel Alucard] Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree __________________
 2013-11-24, 10:59 Link #1893 Dextro He Without a Title     Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: The land of tempura Damn it, that Arena 13 was brutal for me. Mitsuki to me steals every scene she's in and Rachel is a favourite of mine in the BlazBlue games but Mako is Mako. Can't escape Mako la Mako Spoiler for votes: __________________
 2013-11-24, 11:46 Link #1894 Ichuki ┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!     Join Date: Sep 2010 ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Orihara Izaya ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Abstained] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: Kyon [Itsuka Shidō] ARENA 04: Edward Elric [Nanase Haruka] ARENA 05: [L Lawliet] Sakata Gintoki ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: [Levi] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: [Usui Takumi] Accelerator ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu] ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: [Akatsuki] Fino Bloodstone Koto ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki [Rachel Alucard] Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara Matsumae Ohana [Tōma Kazusa] ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree
FlavoryFantasy
♪~Deculture~♪ (✿◠‿◠)

Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Various Pocket Dimensions
Age: 26
ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Orihara Izaya
ARENA 02: [Yagami Light] Uchiha Itachi
ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka
ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki]
ARENA 06: [Sakamaki Izayoi] Takasu Ryūji
ARENA 07: Levi [Heiwajima Shizuo]
ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Accelerator]
ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid
ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet]
ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu]
ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari [Ibaraki Kasen]
ARENA 13: [Abstained] Akatsuki Fino Bloodstone Koto
ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki Rachel Alucard [Mankanshoku Mako]
ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa
ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree
__________________

 2013-11-24, 12:32 Link #1896 npal I desire Tomorrow!     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: As far away from reality as possible Age: 38 ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Abstained] Orihara Izaya ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Abstained] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: Kyon [Itsuka Shidō] ARENA 04: Edward Elric [Abstained] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: [L Lawliet] Sakata Gintoki ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Abstained] Takasu Ryūji ARENA 07: [Levi] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Abstained] Accelerator ARENA 09: Patchouli Knowledge [Alice Margatroid] ARENA 10: [Hinanawi Tenshi] Flandre Scarlet ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu] ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari [Ibaraki Kasen] ARENA 13: Akatsuki [Fino Bloodstone] Koto ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki [Rachel Alucard] Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree Damn, seeing the first brackets made me want to abstain from the whole thing xP I didn't think I'll get enough votes. Thankfully the girls saved it. It's not like I didn't know who to pick, it's like I either didn't care for either or didn't like either of the options :P __________________
 2013-11-24, 12:40 Link #1897 CrowKenobi One PUNCH! Administrator     Join Date: Dec 2005 ARENA 01: [Gilgamesh] Orihara Izaya ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Uchiha Itachi] ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: Edward Elric [Nanase Haruka] ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: [Levi] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Accelerator] ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Abstained] Konpaku Yōmu ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: Akatsuki [Fino Bloodstone] Koto ARENA 14: [Nase Mitsuki] Rachel Alucard Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara Matsumae Ohana [Tōma Kazusa] ARENA 16: Miyauchi Renge [Charlotte Belew] Celia Cumani Aintree __________________
 2013-11-24, 13:48 Link #1898 Ahasuerus UNBOUND-ed     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Oakland, CA Age: 68 ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Orihara Izaya] ARENA 02: [Yagami Light] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: [L Lawliet] Sakata Gintoki ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: Levi [Heiwajima Shizuo] ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Accelerator] ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu] ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: [Akatsuki] Fino Bloodstone Koto ARENA 14: [Nase Mitsuki] Rachel Alucard Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: Miyauchi Renge [Charlotte Belew] Celia Cumani Aintree __________________
 2013-11-24, 14:07 Link #1899 KanbeKotori 失礼、噛みました     Join Date: Jul 2013 ARENA 01: ギルガメッシュ [Abstained] 折原臨也 ARENA 02: 夜神月 [うちはイタチ] ARENA 03: キョン [五河士道] ARENA 04: エドワード・エルリック [七瀨遙] ARENA 05: エル・ローライト [Abstained] 坂田銀時 ARENA 06: [逆廻十六夜] 高須竜児 ARENA 07: リヴァイ [Abstained] 平和島静雄 ARENA 08: [碓氷拓海] 一方通行 ARENA 09: [パチュリー・ノーレッジ] アリス・マーガトロイド ARENA 10: 比那名居天子 [フランドール・スカーレット] ARENA 11: 藤原妹紅 [魂魄妖夢] ARENA 12: 八雲紫 [茨木華扇] ARENA 13: [アカツキ] フィノ·ブラッドストーン コト ARENA 14: [名瀨美月] レイチェル・アルカード 満艦飾マコ ARENA 15: 成瀬荊 [松前緒花] 冬馬かずさ ARENA 16: [宮内れんげ] シャルロット・ブリュー スィーリア·クマーニ·エイントリー __________________ 「友達なんていない。人はすぐに裏切るし、学校っていうのは誰かを標的にしないとやってられない馬鹿共の集 まり。ままごとみたいな役決めて、仲のいいふりして都合が悪くなったら知らんぷり。そんな奴らと仲良くした いとか全然思わない。」
KanbeKotori

Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iamadooddood Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match. As for Δx and Δy, that's what I'm calculating in the first place (or at least, a form of it; x'% = (∆x/x)*100% and y'% = (∆y/y)*100%). But I can't give details on my workings unless I have someplace to upload them to. Does the ISML site have such a place?
Yes we have. Go make an account there. Find a suitable sub-section to post.
__________________
「友達なんていない。人はすぐに裏切るし、学校っていうのは誰かを標的にしないとやってられない馬鹿共の集 まり。ままごとみたいな役決めて、仲のいいふりして都合が悪くなったら知らんぷり。そんな奴らと仲良くした いとか全然思わない。」

 Tags isml, saimoe