[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Renall]

The servants could have done it. They're paid extremely well, and this is why most of them don't stick around too long (I assume they bank enough that they can live off it or go find a new job). The work itself seems hard, but it also seems to mostly pay for everything; it's not clear where they live on days off, but it's probably nowhere expensive, and when they're on duty basically everything is provided by the employer.

However, Genji and Shannon have both been at their jobs an unusually long time. Genji is assuredly well-paid as Kinzo's confidante and chief servant, and after 10 years at a job most people can quit after 3, Shannon could have a rather large bankroll if she was saving all her money for that purpose. And neither of them seems like the sort to spend to excess (especially not Genji).

I don't think the adults would risk it if they're being honest about their current financial situation. If I needed several hundred million yen right away, and I had a half-dozen or so safes loaded with hush money, I'd just dip into those for a while. So either one of the adults is lying about how bad their financial situation is, they can't get at the money for some other reason, or they're not the ones doing it.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by k//eternal

I'd been thinking more along the lines of the fact that Battler's actions in the early portion of EP5 are no longer trustworthy (since Bern was controlling his piece), or what the hell Erika was doing in a swimsuit on the deck of a boat during a typhoon. Both kind of sketchy, although I get the feeling the real trick may be even more so...

I had an idea about this. One of the concepts that keeps popping up in the story is the "witch's darkness", the parts of the game board that aren't being observed. We know that Beato's power lets her use the witch's darkness to present false scenes, so long as they're consistent with any witness testimony, but maybe you can also think of the other witches' powers in those terms as well.

We're told that Bernkastel has the power to make any event happen, so long as it has a non-zero probability of occurring. Those events are exactly the ones that could be stated in blue text without being denied, so they're constrained by the amount of witch's darkness surrounding the event in question. We are also told that blue text becomes effectively true if it isn't denied, so in a way you can think of the blue as a weapon that arises directly from Bernkastel's power (or maybe vice-versa).

So what can we say in blue about Erika's actions in Episode 5? Since she's the detective, scenes shown from her point of view are unassailable, but there aren't very many of those. You could reduce the witch's darkness around her using testimony from people who were with her, but there isn't very much of that either since Erika does all of her evidence gathering alone and completely unobserved. And if you're unobserved, you can claim you were doing almost anything, and no one can refute it. Consider all of the cases where Erika did something strange or absurd:

• Surviving the typhoon and washing up on the island
• Climbing the guesthouse walls in a swimsuit to seal the second-floor windows
• Listening to Battler's room all night without sleeping
• Conducting a CSI investigation to pinpoint Genji's movements

In every one of them, she was all alone, in a state of maximum uncertainty, and left no evidence of what she was doing. The important thing from the perspective of Bernkastel's power is not what Erika was actually doing during those periods. She could have been drinking tea in the parlor all night. The point is that Bernkastel claims there is also a possibility that she really was listening to the wall of Battler's room, and since no one can disprove that possibility, she can treat it as if it were the truth.

If this is how Bern's power works, then it's a really nasty weapon. Battler's biggest problem in Episode 6 might be keeping an eye on Erika so she can't go off alone and then introduce false evidence.

[Geekodot]

Originally Posted by Renall

The servants could have done it. They're paid extremely well, and this is why most of them don't stick around too long (I assume they bank enough that they can live off it or go find a new job). The work itself seems hard, but it also seems to mostly pay for everything; it's not clear where they live on days off, but it's probably nowhere expensive, and when they're on duty basically everything is provided by the employer.

However, Genji and Shannon have both been at their jobs an unusually long time. Genji is assuredly well-paid as Kinzo's confidante and chief servant, and after 10 years at a job most people can quit after 3, Shannon could have a rather large bankroll if she was saving all her money for that purpose. And neither of them seems like the sort to spend to excess (especially not Genji).

I don't think the adults would risk it if they're being honest about their current financial situation. If I needed several hundred million yen right away, and I had a half-dozen or so safes loaded with hush money, I'd just dip into those for a while. So either one of the adults is lying about how bad their financial situation is, they can't get at the money for some other reason, or they're not the ones doing it.

Krauss could still do it, because he could embezzle Kinzo's money as he is the one controlling his assets. As long as Kinzo isn't announced dead, the inheritance isn't distributed and Krauss got it to himself. Any financial situation he has can be solved with embezzlement and filling several safe deposit boxes with money could be done too. A proof of this is how the other siblings seem to have noticed the embezzlement he has done before (meaning that he DID indeed use Kinzo's money).

[Skeetulz]

Hello all, I joined this forum just to specifically talk in this one thread, hahah, anywho

I’ve been reading some of your guys’ theories over the course of these past few days, and I have got to say they are quite interesting and made me want to try out some of my theories.

This is just a jumble of random speculation so please, bear with me.

Spoiler for Rambling and speculating also EP4 spoilers:

Something that’s struck me as odd about EP4 during the Gaap/George fight was how George says in the beginning, and I’m paraphrasing here “I learned all my moves from mother.”

And then in the climax of the test, during Gaaps little “acting” part what exactly does George end up doing to Jessica? Well if I remember correctly he tears off half of her face with his kick.
This leads me to the first twilight in EP1, how did the adults die? They had their faces ripped off. This leads me to believe, this is just going out on a limb though, that Eva and/or George could’ve been one of the accomplices or even the mastermind. The same thing goes for the final twilights in EP1 as well. Although for the second twilight I originally theorized that Eva faked her death and George either gave an award winning performance to cover that up, or didn’t know at all, or isn’t even one of the accomplices at all.

What made me abandon this theory was that Eva would not kill Hideyoshi, I seriously doubt she would even when corrupted by her greed.

Spoiler for Regarding the theories for when they run out of time:

Another thing that bothers me is, most of you guys theorize that something like an explosion or landslide happens at the end of the 2 days right? What troubles me is that when the police do arrive, they say they found what looked like butcher scraps in the main hall. Which means that it couldn’t possibly be an explosion or landslide otherwise the police would’ve noticed, unless it was planned to be a cover-up from the beginning. Of course I might’ve misread the ending text for EP1 as well so, yeah.

Spoiler for EP2 musings:

Another thing I noticed during EP2’s second twilight was Kumasawa. Whether or not she’s an accomplice or innocent doesn’t matter because this works either way. If you take what she said to face value, the her being asleep and barely waking up as the gang arrives in the parlor, We can assume the culprit snuck into her room and took her master key, used it to open and attack Jessica and Kanon, and dragged Kanon’s body out, then locked the door, and finally returned Kumasawa’s key back to her before she woke up. Or maybe the culprit never returns it to her at all. If I remember correctly Kumasawa didn’t check to see if she had it, all she does is agree with “Every servant has a master key.”

That’s all I have for now, sorry if it’s been discussed/debunked etc. already.

[Jan-Poo]

Uhmm

about what the police has found in Ep1, you can read it here: http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...0&postcount=12

As you can see there is no mention of the Mansion hall, it only says that they had found several body pieces. Also mind that "crime scene" in japanese is more generic and could also refer to the site of an incident.

About Kumasawa I don't remember that part very well, but in the end Rosa gets all the keys, so the culprit must have returned the key to Kumasawa at a certain point.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Skeetulz

Spoiler for Rambling and speculating also EP4 spoilers:

This leads me to the first twilight in EP1, how did the adults die? They had their faces ripped off. This leads me to believe, this is just going out on a limb though, that Eva and/or George could’ve been one of the accomplices or even the mastermind. The same thing goes for the final twilights in EP1 as well. Although for the second twilight I originally theorized that Eva faked her death and George either gave an award winning performance to cover that up, or didn’t know at all, or isn’t even one of the accomplices at all.

Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths were confirmed in red for EP1, although I don't think there was a firm timestamp on it. Eva's stake (Asmodeus) was the same one used to stab Jessica in the back in Episode 2 though, so it doesn't seem like it could be a trick stake that could be used to fake a death. Battler also saw the body up close, and it would probably be impossible to fake the bulging eyes bit for very long, even if you did have a trick stake.

George is definitely a viable suspect for the first twilights, but he has an ironclad alibi for the 6th through 8th in EP1 since he was with Battler.

Spoiler for Regarding the theories for when they run out of time:

Another thing that bothers me is, most of you guys theorize that something like an explosion or landslide happens at the end of the 2 days right? What troubles me is that when the police do arrive, they say they found what looked like butcher scraps in the main hall. Which means that it couldn’t possibly be an explosion or landslide otherwise the police would’ve noticed, unless it was planned to be a cover-up from the beginning. Of course I might’ve misread the ending text for EP1 as well so, yeah.

The disaster isn't necessarily what killed the cousins in EP1. Kanon and possibly Shannon were also alive at the endgame, so one of them could have killed them before the disaster finished them off. That doesn't really explain why the corpses didn't vanish in that round though.

@Jan-Poo: Didn't Kumasawa's master key turn up in an envelope after her body vanished? I don't think there was any proof that she was carrying it beforehand.

[chounokoe]

Still, no landslide or bomb could stand in front of Natsuhi in Episode 1 or Nanjo in Episode 3 with drawn weapon, so there has to be someone there on the island carrying out those last murders.
And what real reason would anybody have to destroy the corpses after death? They should be literally swarming with finger prints and DNA after most of them were touched by almost anybody among the survivors...

It is true that we do not know nearly enough about the crime-scene to actually make any assumptions about what happened.
At least it is clear that some things like one stake was found in Episode 3's world, so if it wasn't drastically relocated there should still be a hall to find it in.
Yet we don't know about any corpses being actually found, we only know that it was a gruesome crime scene...but seeing it was later dubbed a serial murder incident it is safe to assume that at least some corpses were found (and the kids are specially mentioned to be missing, so only they should be missing).

How would the bombs for example work? Where are they located?
And the landslide...where did it come from? There don't seem to be high enough landparts around the mansion to induce a slide of enough force and the coast seems to be made of solid rock, so the mansion's ground sliding downwards towards the sea seems equally unreasonable.
Apart from that typhoon's are rather common along that part of the ocean and it shouldn't be the first typhoon to hit Rokkenjima in around 40 years...considering the mansion seems to have been there for at least 25-30 years I think it is safe to assume it has survived something like that.

[rogerpepitone]

Did anybody note which messages were specifically mentioned as being sealed with Kinzo's ring?

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

@Jan-Poo: Didn't Kumasawa's master key turn up in an envelope after her body vanished? I don't think there was any proof that she was carrying it beforehand.

Uhm you are right, too many things to remember ^^;

[Skeetulz]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Uhmm

about what the police has found in Ep1, you can read it here: http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...0&postcount=12

As you can see there is no mention of the Mansion hall, it only says that they had found several body pieces. Also mind that "crime scene" in japanese is more generic and could also refer to the site of an incident.

Ahh, I'm sorry I could've sworn it said mansion hall, hm.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

Still, no landslide or bomb could stand in front of Natsuhi in Episode 1 or Nanjo in Episode 3 with drawn weapon, so there has to be someone there on the island carrying out those last murders.

Someone could easily still be alive prior to the disaster in both cases. Kanon or Shannon could be alive in ep1, Kyrie or Hideyoshi in ep3.

And what real reason would anybody have to destroy the corpses after death? They should be literally swarming with finger prints and DNA after most of them were touched by almost anybody among the survivors...

There pretty much isn't one. Also bear in mind the DNA evidence would be hopeless in the mid-80s given the circumstances the bodies must have been found in (especially if the corpses were destroyed). There's no reason to hide the bodies at all because everyone knows the whole family (minus Ange) was on the island. Captain Kawabata would witness to that right away. This lends credence to a large-scale killing method or a natural disaster. In the former case, the bodies being destroyed isn't the killer trying to hide evidence (just the natural result of their method); in the latter, nature obviously has no motives.

It is true that we do not know nearly enough about the crime-scene to actually make any assumptions about what happened.
At least it is clear that some things like one stake was found in Episode 3's world, so if it wasn't drastically relocated there should still be a hall to find it in.

Well, if Kyrie was the one who survived long enough to kill Nanjo, and Mammon was the stake in her, perhaps Eva went looking for people and found the stake in another location, got worried, and took it with her to wherever was safe?

How would the bombs for example work? Where are they located?
And the landslide...where did it come from? There don't seem to be high enough landparts around the mansion to induce a slide of enough force and the coast seems to be made of solid rock, so the mansion's ground sliding downwards towards the sea seems equally unreasonable.
Apart from that typhoon's are rather common along that part of the ocean and it shouldn't be the first typhoon to hit Rokkenjima in around 40 years...considering the mansion seems to have been there for at least 25-30 years I think it is safe to assume it has survived something like that.

The island is quite hilly, almost mountainous. It's suggested many times that actually getting to Kuwadorian would be incredibly dangerous and nearly impossible on foot from the mansion (Rosa did it, but Beatrice died on the way back, so it's obviously quite risky). Perhaps other typhoons have hit, but not bad enough to cause landslides.

Or perhaps human agency was at work to ensure a "disaster" happened. We have not the slightest idea what's going on, and until the midnight event is identified, I doubt it will be possible to save everyone from it.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Renall

In the former case, the bodies being destroyed isn't the killer trying to hide evidence (just the natural result of their method); in the latter, nature obviously has no motives.

But through inference we can argue that the one doing aranging the killings and the one killing Battler in the End of Episode 4 is the same entity.
As it was said 'Beatrice is not killing to induce fear' (during Episode 5) and 'You are all alone, yet I will kill you now' (at the end of Episode 4).
So assuming that it was both talking about the entity Meta-Beato represents, it cannot be a landslide killing Battler, as it was killing others during the games and those others were deffinitely not killed by a landslide. So as long as Meta-Beato does not represent different things at once or just the very abstract action of murder, we can say that Battler was killed by some force who was also responsible for killing the others, right?

So what reason would there be to write a random landslide or other natural disaster into the story or better to not write it in until maybe a very late point, only to make the people seem vanished?
I'm just trying to say that a natural disaster doesn't make much sense in the context right now as there is nothing hinting at something like that in any way.
Why would there even be a police team searching the grounds if there was a natural disaster, which would call for other forces?

Well, if Kyrie was the one who survived long enough to kill Nanjo, and Mammon was the stake in her, perhaps Eva went looking for people and found the stake in another location, got worried, and took it with her to wherever was safe?

That's possible, but Eva's last words during 1998 in Episode 3 (even though she was quite insane) hinted at her knowing quite well what happened on the island and she pretty much blamed herself for what happened to her family.
I think whomever actions she knew about, it seemed to ensure her safety to a certain extent and guaranteed her to arrive at Kuwadorian in the middle of the night, during a typhoon, after a 2km distance...I think she could be quite sure that someone was guaranteeing her survival...so taking that stake with her would only make her suspicious.

The island is quite hilly, almost mountainous. It's suggested many times that actually getting to Kuwadorian would be incredibly dangerous and nearly impossible on foot from the mansion (Rosa did it, but Beatrice died on the way back, so it's obviously quite risky). Perhaps other typhoons have hit, but not bad enough to cause landslides.

Or perhaps human agency was at work to ensure a "disaster" happened. We have not the slightest idea what's going on, and until the midnight event is identified, I doubt it will be possible to save everyone from it.

Believe me, there must have been plenty of typhoons to hit Rokkenjima during the 30 years the manor existed and many of them should have been equally bad as the one going on right now. Japan is hit by a good amount of typhoons each year and the damage is not disregardable...still Rokkenjima seems quite stormproven and it is often mentioned that the mansion is situated rather high up, as it it a steep climb towards the rose garden.

Beatrice's death had nothing to do with the hillside of Rokkenjima, but rather the rather steep coastside, as it was mentioned that Rosa was rather going around the island than straight through. The danger of the straight through path is more the dense forest that makes navigation nearly impossible and the harsh vegetation.

Apart from that, the typhoon has already went into a milder phase again at the time of Episode 4 ending, as Battler was able to pass through to and around the mansion. Had it been bad enough to cause a landslide, I doubt he would have walked around so carelessly.
The only 'reasonable' natural disaster that could cause a landslide at this point was possible an earthquake of middle to larger scale (maybe middle would be enough as the earth would be softer due to the rain...but seeing the depiction of Rokkenjima so far, it's more a rocky island so maybe there isn't even that much to dissolve). Yet an earthquake would be something that would have been mentioned by now I think.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

So what reason would there be to write a random landslide or other natural disaster into the story or better to not write it in until maybe a very late point, only to make the people seem vanished?
I'm just trying to say that a natural disaster doesn't make much sense in the context right now as there is nothing hinting at something like that in any way.
Why would there even be a police team searching the grounds if there was a natural disaster, which would call for other forces?

[...]

Apart from that, the typhoon has already went into a milder phase again at the time of Episode 4 ending, as Battler was able to pass through to and around the mansion. Had it been bad enough to cause a landslide, I doubt he would have walked around so carelessly.
The only 'reasonable' natural disaster that could cause a landslide at this point was possible an earthquake of middle to larger scale (maybe middle would be enough as the earth would be softer due to the rain...but seeing the depiction of Rokkenjima so far, it's more a rocky island so maybe there isn't even that much to dissolve). Yet an earthquake would be something that would have been mentioned by now I think.

The problem is that the idea that there wasn't a natural disaster makes even less sense.

You say that you find strange that this disaster has never been mentioned? So what about the fact that it was never mentioned that the police was searching for a criminal? It is undeniable that something is being hidden from us.

How do you explain that Nanjo's son is pissed off at the the idea that people think it was a crime? If there was evidence that it was a crime wouldn't be natural for him to wish the culprit was brought to trial and condemned?

Why Okonogi says that he shouldn't call it a crime?

Why everyone calls it an "unfortunate incident"? A mass murder nromally wouldn't be called "unfortunate".

There is overwhelming evidence that the Rokkenjima incident wasn't officially considered a crime. And yet 17 people died or vanished.

If it wasn't a natural disaster then I guess it could be a fire or the boiler room exploded as many suggested, but those hardly explain how that could lead to people being missing.

Lastly, Professor Ootsuki says that at the auction house they explained that the books escaped the disaster. If it was merely a mass murder, well why would people think that the books would be affected? In addition it appears that those books were found in kuwadorian, but we know there were probably a lot of more valuable occult books in Kinzo's study. So why they weren't auctioned?

[ijriims]

Let's say Rokkenjima was a military base during the WWII, there was an arsenal beneath it. Beatrice relocated the explosive to right under the mansion through the tunnel system. She set up a small time bomb to trigger a massive explosion at 00:00 Oct 6.

After the explosion, police came and discovered the history of Rokkenjima. They concluded there was no evidence that the explosion was either man-made or accidental explosion because of environmental factor (since all the trace of someone moving the explosion and the evidence of the small time bomb was erased) or the boiler went exploded and triggered the mass explosion.

The mass explosion also started a landslide which covered where the mansion, rose garden located (thought is was not clear whether it covered the guesthouse, the chapel and garden shed as well), but that was not part of Beatrice's plan. The landslide covered Rosa, Maria, Krauss and Natsuhi's bodies and they were never found. While those people or bodies inside the mansion were reduced to pieces (Nanjo, Kyrie, Rudolf, Hideyoshi, George, Jessica, Battler, Kinzo and the five servants' bodies)

Due to the benefit of doubt, they could not charge that Eva actually caused the explosion, as well as the fact that her husband and son being dead. Even though her presence of 2km away from the mansion, the holding of Maria's diary and Mammon stake were suspicious enough (she took it from Kyrie's body as she found her "body" moved and identified her as George's killer.

They dropped the case as murders but identified it as accident cauing mass death on family meetings.


These explained 1.why there was a tunnel system. 2. Why there was 10t gold. 3. why Beatrice said they had no hope of surviving before the typhoon ended. 4. why the children were reduced to pieces in EP1 (as they located at the ground zero of the explosion). 5. why Beatrice said "she" killed Battler in the end of EP4 even though none of the others survived up to that point 6. why police would identify the incident as accident.


Mere speculation,
but I believed it is the "Answer".

[k//eternal]

So the question is, how does it all happen because of Battler? (Also not really clear on how this explains the gold, I don't think 10 tons of gold is something people stash in your average military base.)

[Jan-Poo]

For once I don't think jirmis theory is bad. The only problem is that there's no apparent reasons for bombs to set off. Maybe there was a small earthquake that caused the bombs to explode? Well that would certainly be called unfortunate.

As for what Battler has to do with that, well imho whatever is the disaster that is occurring Beatrice either "set it up somehow" or "knows that it's going to happen". In the first case she would be killing everyone directly in the second it would be an indirect murder because she's not telling them.

Jirmis idea could work in that the incident could be caused by a man while still having a chance to being considered an incident.

As for the gold it's been speculated that it comes from some german official that escaped with it before the allies crushed the nazi's army. Since Japan was part of the axis it is not too far fetched that germans would try to find refuge there. Oh and BTW

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_gold

It is still debated where all that gold ended up.

[chounokoe]

The problem I have with earthquakes and landslides is, that it is somehow too random to be actually true. It would be like a slap in the face and totally impossible to foresee. Earthquakes sometimes happen on an almost daily basis in Japan at least once a months there is one that is strong enough to be felt, typhoons happen on a not so heavy but also almost regular basis. Something like that being the case feels more like 'Whoops, oh yeah this time it got them'...sure it's possible but it would lead the investigation-process involving everything that happened on the island ad absurdum.

What I could accept as possible would be for example, arson. Someone set the mansion (and possibly the guesthouse, too) on fire after the incident and destroyed all possible evidence that was left...that would also explain why Eva had to be relocated to Kuwadorian for that night.
Back in the 80's, after a typhoon, on an island that was supposedly closed off from any civilization during those days, the forces may deemed that as an unfortunate accident.

We still also don't know what exactly was considered unfortunate and accidental about what they happened to find on Rokkenjima. On the one hand it is said they searched and found bodyparts and people went on calling it a serial killing, yet it was closed as an unfortunate incident...something is surely not quite right, but Ryukishi may be playing with us, making us expect something like the orchestrated Hinamizawa disaster.
How come the relatives of those killed on Rokkenjima never wanted to find out what happened? It's still odd that Ange is the only one who ever wants to find something about the actual events, and even she only after meeting Bernkastel.

What would truly help would for example be Eva's confession after she was found on the island. She was the only source of information left...and possibly she really implied something to the police that led them away from actual clues.

About the 'bombs beneath Rokkenjima' theory, surely possible...but it was said that you can get towards the answer with what EP1-4 gives you and there is surely not enough hard evidence pointing towards a military base, or any other facility harboring explosives, being located on Rokkenjima.
While Germany and Japan had a relation during WWII they fought individual battles and never really involved each other in the military regions of the other, and while I find it perfectly ample to believe that Beatrice might have been a woman of German descent based on her features, her love for English seems to imply either American or English descent.
Then again how would the bombs be set off? There is the accident through a small earthquake, but that is nonsense since there have been enough earthquakes in that area (alone this summer there were around 10 in closer proximity of where Rokkenjima would be located)...that would again require to much 'chance' and would be an even bigger miracle than Erika reaching the island.

Yes there is still the fact of Battler being alone, yet being killed...which is the big paradoxon which is leading us to the whole discussion.
But if it had to be a bomb it had to be prepared for a certain radius and a certain time to explode. Yet if the culprit was able to somehow avoid being present and yet being able to kill Nanjo in Episode 3 or Natsuhi in Episode 1, why would he bring him/herself in immediate danger of being killed in 'the explosion'? The problem here is that there would be no logic for that action and therefore it seems pretty much wrong compared to the otherwise very orchestrated crimes.

Arson may be the only 'accident' that would prove itself not totally counterproductive or too accidental to be true.

[Geekodot]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

Yes there is still the fact of Battler being alone, yet being killed...which is the big paradoxon which is leading us to the whole discussion.
But if it had to be a bomb it had to be prepared for a certain radius and a certain time to explode. Yet if the culprit was able to somehow avoid being present and yet being able to kill Nanjo in Episode 3 or Natsuhi in Episode 1, why would he bring him/herself in immediate danger of being killed in 'the explosion'? The problem here is that there would be no logic for that action and therefore it seems pretty much wrong compared to the otherwise very orchestrated crimes.

Arson may be the only 'accident' that would prove itself not totally counterproductive or too accidental to be true.

There is no reason for the one who kills Natsuhi and Nanjo to be the same person who planted the bomb. The bomber might already be dead, you know... If you go with this theory, you should look for someone who never makes it to the end to be the bomber.

There is a very very high chance that there are more than one murderer and different motives going around. If Kanon was the murderer in Episode 1 and killed Natsuhi, then he wouldn't know about the bomb if it was prepared by Krauss (just an example)... and the bomber himself wouldn't be saved because he was killed in the first twilight.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Geekodot

There is no reason for the one who kills Natsuhi and Nanjo to be the same person who planted the bomb. The bomber might already be dead, you know... If you go with this theory, you should look for someone who never makes it to the end to be the bomber.

There is a very very high chance that there are more than one murderer and different motives going around. If Kanon was the murderer in Episode 1 and killed Natsuhi, then he wouldn't know about the bomb if it was prepared by Krauss (just an example)... and the bomber himself wouldn't be saved because he was killed in the first twilight.

But why would someone who is able to plant bombs in an unknown location, maybe the underground, and has therefore complete access to the island and knowledge about the family conference and the individual locations of the people at the end of those days, why would such a person be unknown to the real culprit?
It is not like Rokkenjima is a huge island, we know it spans only 2km in length and therefore maybe 1km to the sides. It's not like two parties planning the demise of a family through an almost apocalyptic scenario could work alongside each other, in the same location, without ever noticing each other. At least it is hardly believable.

If there was someone planting bombs among the first victims, it is very much possible that the culprit knew about them, therefore it would be going along with his plan and I still do not see a good enough reason to plant a bomb risking to be killed along with it, if he/she goes through the hassle of killing those people individually.
If a bomb was part of the plan it would have been unneccessay to kill them in such a fashionable manner in the first place...that is why I can still not quite believe in an orchestrated grand scale destruction of the crime scene in the first place...unless that person would know about what is happening in the Meta-world, which would hint the existence of magic and therefore make a bomb feel cheap.

It is very well hinted that Natsuhi (EP1), Battler (EP2), Nanjo (EP3) and again Battler (EP4) met someone in the mansion at the end of the last day, who then killed them. It could very well always be someone different, unconnected to the murders, but for that the people killed are to randomly picked.
I still just don't see any reason or evidence pointing towards a bomb...but of course if you have a fool proof theory how a bomber and a culprit orchestrating the murders could exist alongside, I'll gladly listen to it.

[Geekodot]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

But why would someone who is able to plant bombs in an unknown location, maybe the underground, and has therefore complete access to the island and knowledge about the family conference and the individual locations of the people at the end of those days, why would such a person be unknown to the real culprit?

If the bomber had planned to kill everyone with a bomb at the end of the fifth, or if he had planned to destroy the mansion for some reason after the family conference when everyone left (they were supposed to leave that day, remember), and the murderer was someone else with a different agenda working alone and knowing nothing of the bomb plan, then it is possible. The one who planted the bomb and the one who carries out the murders are individuals who know nothing of each others plans.

Originally Posted by chounokoe

It is not like Rokkenjima is a huge island, we know it spans only 2km in length and therefore maybe 1km to the sides. It's not like two parties planning the demise of a family through an almost apocalyptic scenario could work alongside each other, in the same location, without ever noticing each other. At least it is hardly believable.

Well, the one who plants the bomb might notice the murders and wanting to remove the bomb again, but is killed while he tries or something quite early in the games, or killed randomly at the first twilight. There is NO REASON for the murderer to know that there was a bomb there and perfectly believable that the murderer didn't know.

Originally Posted by chounokoe

If there was someone planting bombs among the first victims, it is very much possible that the culprit knew about them, therefore it would be going along with his plan and I still do not see a good enough reason to plant a bomb risking to be killed along with it, if he/she goes through the hassle of killing those people individually.

The bomber could easily be killed randomly at the first twilight right? or for other reasons than the bomb itself. There is no reason for the murderer to know about the bomb.
The bomb could be planted to destroy the mansion and not killing themselves. What if the bomber and everyone close to him/her were going to flee to Kuwadorian?

Originally Posted by chounokoe

If a bomb was part of the plan it would have been unneccessay to kill them in such a fashionable manner in the first place...that is why I can still not quite believe in an orchestrated grand scale destruction of the crime scene in the first place...unless that person would know about what is happening in the Meta-world, which would hint the existence of magic and therefore make a bomb feel cheap.

The bomb was obviously not in the killer's plan. The bomb and the killings are done by individuals.

Originally Posted by chounokoe

It is very well hinted that Natsuhi (EP1), Battler (EP2), Nanjo (EP3) and again Battler (EP4) met someone in the mansion at the end of the last day, who then killed them. It could very well always be someone different, unconnected to the murders, but for that the people killed are to randomly picked.
I still just don't see any reason or evidence pointing towards a bomb...but of course if you have a fool proof theory how a bomber and a culprit orchestrating the murders could exist alongside, I'll gladly listen to it.

Natsuhi and Nanjo met someone at the 9th twilight, which is close, but not the end. If everyone dies at the tenth twilight, then all the tenth twilights could be magic scenes, because no witness survives.

Battler in Ep 4 couldn't have met with anyone. He was the only one on the island, and from this, I can conclude that the tenth twilight is a magic scene because he did meet the witch again when it was impossible to do so.

In conclusion, it is very well hinted that what you see 24.00 at the tenth twilight in every game is just a magic scene which makes it not real.