[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[crazysjd89]

It might be hard for Kasumi to keep up the act, but I think she had enough hatred to do it. Plus, when she's not being bad-mouthed, or angered, she is really calm. Kyrie only very rarely speaks during the Family Conference, anyway.

It's a bit farfetched, perhaps, but I think Kasumi's determination could do it.

This part isn't logical evidence of any sort, it's just something interesting to think about:

Spoiler for Episode 4:

Kasumi was being possessed by Eva-Beatrice. As I said, not real evidence though, since that was saying that she got taken over by black magic and the dark witch.

However, I feel that most other explanations are also a low probability, mostly George's death.

I can understand why someone who wasn't truly dead would kill Nanjo, since he claimed they were dead, but they weren't.

But I cannot think of a good reason to not only kill George, but also inscribe that number on the door also. Considering that they must have lost a lot of blood and was on the verge of death (assumption), I don't see how they could have gotten the energy to do it.

Then of course, you could say Eva killed George. This is possible, but I find it really hard to believe Eva would kill George, with how much she dotes on him.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

It's not enough to say Eva survived. In fact, it's a Devil's Proof. Just because Eva was the only known person on the island who survived, doesn't mean their weren't more that people don't know of.

They would need actual physical evidence to convict Eva. An arguement of "She was there and survived" wouldn't hold up, and it definitly wouldn't give anyone the death penalty.

As for Ange, how would she do this? She was being completly bound by Eva. It would be very hard for her to go to Rokkenjima while Eva was alive. And, even if she somehow got away, Eva would have all the guards and such after Ange.

Not only that, but at that point, Ange probably didn't really have money to throw around - Eva controlled it all.

And, I find it hard to believe that a volcanic eruption wouldn't make it into the news.

You didn't get my point about Ange. I'm talking about the event in 1998. I don't know if my memory is tricking me but I think it's been said that the captain goes to the Kuwadorian's harbor and not the other harbor near the Mansion. This is what is very odd.

As for the news and the police report, we are not told what is the official story. There's a big hole here. You cannot say that a Volcano's eruption was not reported, maybe it was, we simply aren't told anything about that.

[crazysjd89]

My point wasn't that we hadn't heard about it, it was that Ange and every person wondering about the Rokkenjima incident didn't hear of it.

If a volcano went off near the island, then the most logical explanation would be that the volcano was the cause of the deaths. However, you have things like the Witch Hunters, and people who believe it's a conspiracy.

What I mean is much like this:

You hear that a house was set on fire.

At this point, you can think of many ways to explain it. Someone burned it. A witch used magic to burn it. A residence of the house accidentally left the stove on.

Now, you hear that this house had a gas leak in the pipes.

That certainly doesn't mean it was because of the gas leak that the house set on fire, but the probability is high, and most people would think it was because of this. There would be very very few people who would believe otherwise.

In this situation, people hear about how 17 people on Rokkenjima died. However, they also hear that a nearby volcano erupted. While the volcano wasn't necessarily the reason they died, the probability is high, and I doubt there would be a bunch of media attention and a whole group dedicated to proving a witch did it.

[Jan-Poo]

My assumption is that Ange and everyone knows more than what we are told.

I've just replayed the part when Ange goes to Rokkenjima.

The Captain says: "that's where the harbor used to be". Why "used to be"? It looks like no one is surprised to know that the harbor doesn't exist anymore.

After that it is written that the boat is rounding the island. It isn't clear where they are going it only says after a while that they reach the shore.

The the most important part. Ange says: "Today, our main goal is Kuwadorian. after I deliver this, I'll come right back."

Why she doesn't even want to go to the old mansion? That doesn't make sense.
Yes it is said that there's been a landslide, but how Ange was supposed to know? I can only conclude that the Mansion doesn't exist anymore, neither does the chapel the guesthouse and the harbor, and that is common knowledge. Ange knew that already, and probably Juuza knows that too. No one is surprised. It is a know fact.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

The Captain says: "that's where the harbor used to be". Why "used to be"? It looks like no one is surprised to know that the harbor doesn't exist anymore.

Are you referring to this?

".........Can you see it?`@` Over there's where the harbor was at the time."

If so, remember this line:

After that incident, the island was sealed off and left to the wild.

Sealing the island would mean that to prevent anyone to set a foot there. So the harbor no longer there doesn't exactly need a natural catastrophe.

The the most important part. Ange says: "Today, our main goal is Kuwadorian. after I deliver this, I'll come right back."

Why she doesn't even want to go to the old mansion? That doesn't make sense.
Yes it is said that there's been a landslide, but how Ange was supposed to know? I can only conclude that the Mansion doesn't exist anymore, neither does the chapel the guesthouse and the harbor, and that is common knowledge. Ange knew that already, and probably Juuza knows that too. No one is surprised. It is a know fact.

You are making a quick interpretation here.
First, remember that none of the siblings could reach kuwadorian except Rosa (if she can be trusted) by foot. It is public knowledge that Kuwadorian is at least 2km afar of the Mansion, and that it wasn't exactly found that easily.
Therefore, it is not really logical to expect Ange to be able to do the other way (and nothing prevent her to do another trip and reach the mansion from the other side, and she wouldn't mind jumping off of the boat, if you think about it).

Also, remember that the whole odd point was Eva being alone in Kuwadorian. If the police didn't find anything in the main Mansion, why would Ange bother with it anyway? The whole idea of this trip was to pay a visit to Maria (though originally, ending her own life there).
Ange has absolutely no other goal than this one considering the context, so checking the Ushiromiya Mansion is moot (for the moment).

[Jan-Poo]

I don't get your point. If it was simply sealed off, the harbor would still be there. Actually how can you seal off an harbor? Even if it was sealed off, we are talking about a girl that threw herself from a skyscraper. Would a police seal stop her? There's no way I'm going to believe that.
Or you mean the harbor was destroyed? That would be a pointless waste of money. You don't really need a harbor to reach an island and the event shown prove that.

About the kuwadorian. It is illogical to think it wouldn't be easily found from the hidden harbor. Captain Kawabata shipped goods there for 20 years. A path must exists, and it must have been in good enough condition to carry various stuff. After 12 years you can assume the conditions deteriorated but not as much to completely erase any trace. And then again the kuwadorian can't be that distant from the harbor, certainly not 2 kilometers.

I also really do not understand how can you say:

If the police didn't find anything in the main Mansion, why would Ange bother with it anyway?

Do you think Ange trusts the police? But that's not the point. It's the place where everyone she loved died, it's the place that is part of her childhood memories. She went all the trouble to get to Rokkenjima at the risk of being killed. She went all the trouble to meet various persons to find the truth to ascertain the truth by herself. And now she just doesn't bother to see the mansion where everything happened? Are you serious?
If the whole idea of going to Rokkenjima was only to pay a visit to Maria and then die, it was because there was really nothing else to do on Rokkenjima (i.e. everything was destroyed). You can't say that Ange has no interest in knowing the truth by herself, it doesn't match with all the investigations she has done before that.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I don't get your point. If it was simply sealed off, the harbor would still be there. Actually how can you seal off an harbor? Even if it was sealed off, we are talking about a girl that threw herself from a skyscraper. Would a police seal stop her? There's no way I'm going to believe that.
Or you mean the harbor was destroyed? That would be a pointless waste of money. You don't really need a harbor to reach an island and the event shown prove that.

You are implying that the island would have a mere seal? I really doubt you would do such a half work for a mass murder scene but well.

Before even Ange was trying to do that, probably countless of reckless mystery freaks tried to do so (the game implied many witch hunters tried to get in Rokkenjima).
However they weren't able to do so due to the whole "cursed island", so they could only have a trip. Now, how is it possible to call that a "cursed island", but without even mentioning a volcanic activity? That would be the very first thing to be mentioned.

About the kuwadorian. It is illogical to think it wouldn't be easily found from the hidden harbor. Captain Kawabata shipped goods there for 20 years. A path must exists, and it must have been in good enough condition to carry various stuff. After 12 years you can assume the conditions deteriorated but not as much to completely erase any trace. And then again the kuwadorian can't be that distant from the harbor, certainly not 2 kilometers.

I think you really mistook what I said.
What I posted previously was that Krauss and the siblings weren't able to find Kuwadorian, except Rosa by chance, from the mainland. That means: unless you get access from the Hidden Harbor, the chances you find the kuwadorian mansion are extremely slim.

To prove it, Krauss wasn't able to locate it, despite tailing Kinzo, or when he was planning his resort project. Furthermore, if we consider that only a few people knew about the hidden harbor, and that Krauss didn't find anything for several years, it is plainly difficult.

Now the true point of my post is: Ange didn't go to the old mansion because accessing from Kuwadorian to the Mansion (and vice versa) is extremely difficult without the underground passage. As explained above, Krauss didn't find anything despite he had the time for this ordeal. Therefore, for her to access the Mansion from the other side of the island is very unlikely. That was the whole point.

And like I said: it is NOT the distance between the harbor and Kuwadorian that is 2km. It is between the MANSION and Kuwadorian that it is 2km. And that distance with cliffs, forest and the like is certainly not practicable.

Do you think Ange trusts the police? But that's not the point. It's the place where everyone she loved died, it's the place that is part of her childhood memories. She went all the trouble to get to Rokkenjima at the risk of being killed. She went all the trouble to meet various persons to find the truth to ascertain the truth by herself. And now she just doesn't bother to see the mansion where everything happened? Are you serious?
If the whole idea of going to Rokkenjima was only to pay a visit to Maria and then die, it was because there was really nothing else to do on Rokkenjima (i.e. everything was destroyed). You can't say that Ange has no interest in knowing the truth by herself, it doesn't match with all the investigations she has done before that.

1) at the risk of being killed? by who? Kasumi decided to kill her just because they were on a secluded island. I don't think you can expect any culprit lurking there for years like bunch of mindless guardians.
2) Like I said: I never said she "never wanted" to check the mansion, but her primary first goal was to settle things with Maria, no more no less. There was no guarantee she will leave Rokkenjima past this point (she said: go back, in the sense of joining back Amakusa and the captain). If you link the fact it would take ages to reach the Mansion from Kuwadorian, it would be more logical to go around with the boat instead.
3) And I never said that Ange has no interest into finding the truth. You are jumping on conclusions for words I never wrote. Given what she said during the trip, the ACTUAL context of her ordeal at the Kuwadorian rest would be to settle things with Maria. No bothering to check the Mansion doesn't mean she doesn't want to know the truth. And if you consider the possible SHOCK of it, certainly it wouldn't be a merry round.

Afterwards, it is up to Ange to continue her investigation that seems to be extremely hard to resolve. But that is another story.

[Marion]

She might not want to go because it brings up bad memories. You have to remember in EP 3 Battler is confirmed definietly dead. The only person that went 'missing' was Jessica.

Ange's entire journey was self-satisfaction. She wanted to know about the murders and everything, but then she realized it was impossible. So she went to the island to say farewell to Maria, the sister she upsetted and to give back Sakutaro and revive him. She also apparently wanted to revive Battler and her family as well.

You can't say "Ange would go to the mansion if she could" because we really don't know whether or not she would want to. As far as the volcano theory or what not I think that would be silly. Wouldn't the police know if a volcano erupted on the island - I think Ange might mention that she wouldn't go to the mansion because of a volcano in the narration. It just seems too easy. And once again - if there's an active volcano on the island there is no way the police or the government would let the Ushiromiya family stay on an island that could be wiped out by an eruption because it's a safety hazard.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

You are implying that the island would have a mere seal? I really doubt you would do such a half work for a mass murder scene but well.

Before even Ange was trying to do that, probably countless of reckless mystery freaks tried to do so (the game implied many witch hunters tried to get in Rokkenjima).
However they weren't able to do so due to the whole "cursed island", so they could only have a trip. Now, how is it possible to call that a "cursed island", but without even mentioning a volcanic activity? That would be the very first thing to be mentioned.

Now let's try to analyze this logically. What is exactly this seal? If you ask me I can only answer: "beats me". I seriously have no clue. What is your idea of seal?

We know that neither Kawabata neither Kasumi had any major problem reaching the island. How do you explain that? To me the only reason why the various mystery freaks couldn't do the same it's because they didn't find anyone that would bring them there. Simply as that.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

I think you really mistook what I said.
What I posted previously was that Krauss and the siblings weren't able to find Kuwadorian, except Rosa by chance, from the mainland. That means: unless you get access from the Hidden Harbor, the chances you find the kuwadorian mansion are extremely slim.

To prove it, Krauss wasn't able to locate it, despite tailing Kinzo, or when he was planning his resort project. Furthermore, if we consider that only a few people knew about the hidden harbor, and that Krauss didn't find anything for several years, it is plainly difficult.

I can't believe Krauss didn't find it. There was a harbor on the other side of the island, there was a mansion, and on top of that there was an incredible long fence. I really can't see how he could have missed all of that.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Now the true point of my post is: Ange didn't go to the old mansion because accessing from Kuwadorian to the Mansion (and vice versa) is extremely difficult without the underground passage. As explained above, Krauss didn't find anything despite he had the time for this ordeal. Therefore, for her to access the Mansion from the other side of the island is very unlikely. That was the whole point.

Then yes I didn't get your point, but you didn't get my point either. Why she would go to the kuwadorian instead of the mansion? Logically speaking the first thing they reached was the Mansion's side, proved by the fact the Captain pointed at the location where the harbor was. Instead the captain circumnavigated the island to reach the other side.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

1) at the risk of being killed? by who? Kasumi decided to kill her just because they were on a secluded island. I don't think you can expect any culprit lurking there for years like bunch of mindless guardians.

The whole trip was a risk, Ange was aware of that, Juuza was aware of that, Okonogi was aware of that. If Ange wanted to survive escaping would have been a wiser choice. Investigating the incident of 12 years ago greatly enhanced the chance of being captured, I think this was pretty clear. However Ange is ready to take any risk to find out the truth. She is ready to wager her own life and therefore I can't accept the idea that she would be stopped by a seal or a natural impediment. This is my point.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

2) Like I said: I never said she "never wanted" to check the mansion, but her primary first goal was to settle things with Maria, no more no less. There was no guarantee she will leave Rokkenjima past this point (she said: go back, in the sense of joining back Amakusa and the captain). If you link the fact it would take ages to reach the Mansion from Kuwadorian, it would be more logical to go around with the boat instead.

This isn't logical for two reasons. First as I previously said the Mansion's side was reached first, so it was more logical to go to that place first. Second Ange's original plan was to kill herself from that cliff she reached. If she sticked with that plan it would be logical to assume that would have been the last checkpoint of her trip.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

3) And I never said that Ange has no interest into finding the truth. You are jumping on conclusions for words I never wrote. Given what she said during the trip, the ACTUAL context of her ordeal at the Kuwadorian rest would be to settle things with Maria. No bothering to check the Mansion doesn't mean she doesn't want to know the truth. And if you consider the possible SHOCK of it, certainly it wouldn't be a merry round.

In other words you say that checking the mansion where all the murders happened is not relevant to the end of finding the truth.
That would never cross my mind in a million of years.

Originally Posted by Marion

She might not want to go because it brings up bad memories. You have to remember in EP 3 Battler is confirmed definietly dead. The only person that went 'missing' was Jessica.

Don't bother with the EP3 ending roll, it's fake. From the 1998 perspective we know that Nanjo's body was never found.

Originally Posted by Marion

Ange's entire journey was self-satisfaction. She wanted to know about the murders and everything, but then she realized it was impossible. So she went to the island to say farewell to Maria, the sister she upsetted and to give back Sakutaro and revive him. She also apparently wanted to revive Battler and her family as well.

Why would an anonymous cliff be more important than the Mansion? If she really wanted to met Maria I think she would go to the place where the family meeting occurred every year. Even if it was self satisfaction... no... for that very reason, I can't think of a valid excuse she would avoid the Mansion.

Originally Posted by Marion

You can't say "Ange would go to the mansion if she could" because we really don't know whether or not she would want to. As far as the volcano theory or what not I think that would be silly. Wouldn't the police know if a volcano erupted on the island - I think Ange might mention that she wouldn't go to the mansion because of a volcano in the narration. It just seems too easy. And once again - if there's an active volcano on the island there is no way the police or the government would let the Ushiromiya family stay on an island that could be wiped out by an eruption because it's a safety hazard.

My assumption is that not only the police knows an eruption occurred in Rokkenjima, but everyone knows, this would be the official version of what happened that day. An official explanation of the events must have been told, however we are not told in the game.
It is a fact that the players are kept on the dark about what the police has found, and what was the official reconstruction of the events.

About the second part. The volcano wasn't active, it only awoke on October 5. No one knew about it before this tragic event... except Kinzo and maybe a few others...

[WhiteFrost]

I find the volcanic theory to be pretty interesting.
If you look up the Izu islands on wikipedia you find this:
"The Izu Islands (伊豆諸島, Izu-shotō?) are a group of volcanic islands stretching south and east from the Izu Peninsula of Honshū, Japan. " - Wikipedia
and
"Volcanic activity is frequent in the area. The Eruption of Myōjin-shō in 1953 killed 31 people when the research vessel Kaiyō Maru no 5 was destroyed. Volcanic activity, including the release of harmful gases, forced the evacuation of Miyake-jima in 2000. In February 2005, residents were allowed to return permanently to the island but were required to carry gas masks in case of future volcanic emissions." - Wikipedia
Wouldn't that kind of explain why they were trying to keep people from going to the island after the massacre? And I am not aware of how trusty the seismographic machines used at the time were, it might be a bit of Devils Proof, but maybe the machine used were broken or not used to its' full potential and therefore no one mentioned that Rokkenjima was an unstable area. No one told the Ushiromyia family that the storm was going to keep them on the island for two days, didn't they?
Point 2, about the lava not reaching the Kuwadorian: There are different types of volcanoes, what most people come to think of when they hear "volcano" is the stratavolcano, however there are others. I am no expert, but I would guess the Izu islands are like the Hawaiian islands, hot spots, and smong them there might be so called shield volcanoes. Shield volcanoes are formed from fluid lava that can travel long distances across slight inclines, resulting in their relatively flat, broad profile.

[Matrim]

Personally I would be very disappointed if a volcano turns out to have killed anyone. First, this would be either totally random disaster or soem extremely lame way of "making" a volcano erupt will be concocted. Secondly, so much about the incident and no one bothers to mention that it was a volcano eruption? I call cheating from the writer.

But yes, the ship docking at the hidden port instead of the main one is certainly fishy. Something befell the main mansion that we are not supposed to see, I reckon.

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Now let's try to analyze this logically. What is exactly this seal? If you ask me I can only answer: "beats me". I seriously have no clue. What is your idea of seal?

We know that neither Kawabata neither Kasumi had any major problem reaching the island. How do you explain that? To me the only reason why the various mystery freaks couldn't do the same it's because they didn't find anyone that would bring them there. Simply as that.

My idea of seal is basically to prevent anyone to actually reach the said location with conventional mean. Now, that doesn't mean it prevent anyone to get there (Ange would be capable to go there on boat and climb the cliff if necessary), but I really wonder how is that impossible to demolish an harbor.

And as for the second point: you are now telling me that they weren't warned about the volcano activity? Not pointing a major obstacle of investigating just like that is beyond convenient.

I can't believe Krauss didn't find it. There was a harbor on the other side of the island, there was a mansion, and on top of that there was an incredible long fence. I really can't see how he could have missed all of that.

How about the "forest"? I'm sorry but owning an island doesn't mean you know each tidbits m² of it.
Furhtermore, why krauss is unaware of that mansion? Why the captain didn't list Krauss among those who know this?
And if you tell me that "episode 4 scenes cannot be trusted", we cannot trust either the lack of information regarding the sealing of the island and whatnot.

Kinzo had an immense fortune and could OWN an island. That would certainly not prevent him to make sure his second mansion and harbor wouldn't be found unless with great efforts. Not only krauss didn't find it, but neither Eva or Rudolf.

Then yes I didn't get your point, but you didn't get my point either. Why she would go to the kuwadorian instead of the mansion? Logically speaking the first thing they reached was the Mansion's side, proved by the fact the Captain pointed at the location where the harbor was. Instead the captain circumnavigated the island to reach the other side.

Because unlike the Mansion, Ange never set a foot on Kuwadorian. The logic would say that you would rather look for the location you didn't visit yet. Since Kuwadorian was also considered as the "witch's mansion", that makes even more sense regarding the whole stuff with Maria.

Since Eva was found in that mansion, it wouldn't be surprising for Ange to investigate there first, though unfortunately, there were landslides.

The whole trip was a risk, Ange was aware of that, Juuza was aware of that, Okonogi was aware of that. If Ange wanted to survive escaping would have been a wiser choice. Investigating the incident of 12 years ago greatly enhanced the chance of being captured, I think this was pretty clear. However Ange is ready to take any risk to find out the truth. She is ready to wager her own life and therefore I can't accept the idea that she would be stopped by a seal or a natural impediment. This is my point.

Wherever Ange is, it is a risk. Trying to hide herself or having an investigating trip would turn the same: that she leaves clues and the like that would allow Kasumi to track her whereabouts (Mafia-like).

Now if you believe that she wouldn't be stopped at all, why wouldn't she have a look at the mainland, despite there was lava or whatnot? (and 2km is not a distance great enough to put the other mansion in a safe place).

This isn't logical for two reasons. First as I previously said the Mansion's side was reached first, so it was more logical to go to that place first. Second Ange's original plan was to kill herself from that cliff she reached. If she sticked with that plan it would be logical to assume that would have been the last checkpoint of her trip.

No, from the time she asked Amakusa to stay there, she changed her mind. Why would she care about the toxin if it was to end her life anyway? She would think it would be troublesome if Amakusa prevent her to commit suicide.

In other words you say that checking the mansion where all the murders happened is not relevant to the end of finding the truth.
That would never cross my mind in a million of years.

Checking the mansion while every clues were already found doesn't make any sense. Ange is nothing different from your usual 18 years old girl. Aside of her delusions and the fact she is super rich with a bodyguard, there is absolutely nothing that demonstrates her as a fine detective and whatnot. The police checked the area to the point they've found Kuwadorian, so I really doubt you can find more than the police in such kind of context.

Don't bother with the EP3 ending roll, it's fake. From the 1998 perspective we know that Nanjo's body was never found.

Unless the last scene couldn't be trusted, Battler did find Nanjo's corpse before being killed. Now, it depends how far it would go.

Why would an anonymous cliff be more important than the Mansion? If she really wanted to met Maria I think she would go to the place where the family meeting occurred every year. Even if it was self satisfaction... no... for that very reason, I can't think of a valid excuse she would avoid the Mansion.

Why would the captain say "the mansion is this way" then? Why no any warning and the like?
I can't think of a valid excuse for characters not to report the volcanic activity.

My assumption is that not only the police knows an eruption occurred in Rokkenjima, but everyone knows, this would be the official version of what happened that day. An official explanation of the events must have been told, however we are not told in the game.
It is a fact that the players are kept on the dark about what the police has found, and what was the official reconstruction of the events.

That is certainly giving no sense: it is a sidetracked information that doesn't bring anything special. Why would they bother waiting for so much time in declaring people "dead" while the whole lava thing would make things a deal?
How could they find the pieces of jaw?
The ending scroll could even state the police found the "unimaginable gruesome crime scene".

[crazysjd89]

I would also like to point out that if the police did conclude that it was a volcano, then there would be no reason for them to seal the island up.

The police seal places up for ongoing investigations, however, if they already know a volcano erupted, then the investigation would be over, and they would unseal Rokkenjima.

Plus, you're saying that everyone in the game knows it was a volcano, but haven't answered me; why are there so many people who are "looking for the truth"?

[Matrim]

Plus, you're saying that everyone in the game knows it was a volcano, but haven't answered me; why are there so many people who are "looking for the truth"?

Playing devil's advocate here - people tend to do that, IMO. Like "everyone knows" that Oswald killed Kennedy or that Bin Laden organized 9/11 but that doesn't stop thousands of conspiracy theorists to search for other answers. What I don't buy is that no one would mention the volcano eruption, if only to make fun of the official version.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

My idea of seal is basically to prevent anyone to actually reach the said location with conventional mean. Now, that doesn't mean it prevent anyone to get there (Ange would be capable to go there on boat and climb the cliff if necessary), but I really wonder how is that impossible to demolish an harbor.

And as for the second point: you are now telling me that they weren't warned about the volcano activity? Not pointing a major obstacle of investigating just like that is beyond convenient.

It's not impossible to demolish a port, but I see no reason to do so. The clear fact is the port is no longer there. You can say it was destroyed by humans but that is in no way more logical to think it was destroyed by a natural event. So I keept this fact as circumstantial evidence to back my theory.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

How about the "forest"? I'm sorry but owning an island doesn't mean you know each tidbits m² of it.
Furhtermore, why krauss is unaware of that mansion? Why the captain didn't list Krauss among those who know this?
And if you tell me that "episode 4 scenes cannot be trusted", we cannot trust either the lack of information regarding the sealing of the island and whatnot.

It is said in Episode1 (or was it ep2?) Krauss investigated the whole island. In other words he payed a squad to check the whole island. There is no way they missed it. You can somewhat conceal an harbor from afar but certainly not from a thoroughly inspection. And there is no reason for the Captain to know. Krauss only investigate the island several years after the captain stopped going to the kuwadorian.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Kinzo had an immense fortune and could OWN an island. That would certainly not prevent him to make sure his second mansion and harbor wouldn't be found unless with great efforts. Not only krauss didn't find it, but neither Eva or Rudolf.

My my... I think you are exagerating a bit here. That place isn't as well hidden as you make it sound to be. No point in listing people that never even tried to find the secret mansion (or that were just kids when they did).
Anyway it seems that Eva did find the kuwadorian in the end, and it looks that whoever rescued her, didn't incurred in such problems either.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Wherever Ange is, it is a risk. Trying to hide herself or having an investigating trip would turn the same: that she leaves clues and the like that would allow Kasumi to track her whereabouts (Mafia-like).

I don't agree with this. We even have a clear proof in the story. Ange was found because they knew already where she would go. They couldn't really follow her trail, Juuza is not that naive.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Checking the mansion while every clues were already found doesn't make any sense. Ange is nothing different from your usual 18 years old girl. Aside of her delusions and the fact she is super rich with a bodyguard, there is absolutely nothing that demonstrates her as a fine detective and whatnot. The police checked the area to the point they've found Kuwadorian

Now I don't want to stress too much on this point, we clearly share two completely different opinions. Anyway I repeat it one last time. Ange doesn't trust the police. If she did she would stick with whatever conclusion they reached. And I also disagree with the second part. Ange demonstrated to be able to find more things in a few days than the police in a few years. The letter and the mysterious safes are certainly important hints.

I can't think of a valid excuse for characters not to report the volcanic activity.
That is certainly giving no sense: it is a sidetracked information that doesn't bring anything special. Why would they bother waiting for so much time in declaring people "dead" while the whole lava thing would make things a deal?
How could they find the pieces of jaw?
The ending scroll could even state the police found the "unimaginable gruesome crime scene".

I turn it over to you. If they found the bodies why would they wait so much time in declaring them dead? With my theory I can easily answer: they didn't find any body (at least not after a deep inspection), they had no mean to ascertain their deaths and therefore they couldn't state it without a proper examination.
And I turn to you even the pieces of jaw. Why would they found only the bones? How is that possible? I can answer with my theory, Maria's body was completely burned, only some pieces of her jaws survived the extreme heat.

Plus, you're saying that everyone in the game knows it was a volcano, but haven't answered me; why are there so many people who are "looking for the truth"?

I'm sure you know Higurashi. What was the official reconstruction of the tragedy? Why is that many people didn't trust the authorites? The witch hunters are really no different. and they also have the same reason to doubt the official statements. Should it be a notebook or a message in a bottle, it doesn't really matter.
Even those that believed in the authorities they still questioned Eva. Why she was the only one to survive? Why she didn't bring with her the other family members? So people speculated she took advantage of the situation to let everyone die

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

It is said in Episode1 (or was it ep2?) Krauss investigated the whole island. In other words he payed a squad to check the whole island. There is no way they missed it. You can somewhat conceal an harbor from afar but certainly not from a thoroughly inspection. And there is no reason for the Captain to know. Krauss only investigate the island several years after the captain stopped going to the kuwadorian.

My my... I think you are exagerating a bit here. That place isn't as well hidden as you make it sound to be. No point in listing people that never even tried to find the secret mansion (or that were just kids when they did).
Anyway it seems that Eva did find the kuwadorian in the end, and it looks that whoever rescued her, didn't incurred in such problems either.

We are comparing personal "squad" hired by Krauss with professional investigator, am I wrong?
If Episode 3 is trustworthy enough regarding how Eva found Kuwadorian, a specific path is certainly established (though an underground tunnel).

I don't agree with this. We even have a clear proof in the story. Ange was found because they knew already where she would go. They couldn't really follow her trail, Juuza is not that naive.

How is that a proof anyway? As I say, regardless where Ange is going, Kasumi would just need to follow what her information network report to her. If Ange is said to go to Niijima, it isn't really hard to figure she would try to get in Rokkenjima.

As shown at the start of ep4, regardless where Ange is, Kasumi wanted to abduct her. But then, she mentioned she just has to kill Ange as they were on Rokkenjima. This situation was favorable just because it is a secluded island. As for the rest of it, it is undeniable that Kasumi was after her.

Now I don't want to stress too much on this point, we clearly share two completely different opinions. Anyway I repeat it one last time. Ange doesn't trust the police. If she did she would stick with whatever conclusion they reached. And I also disagree with the second part. Ange demonstrated to be able to find more things in a few days than the police in a few years. The letter and the mysterious safes are certainly important hints.

These are only circumstancial: she happen to be much more close to Masayuki because of her "prime victim" status. Plus, unlike the police, she has a substancial clue. Aside of that, she herself isn't anything beyond a professional, that's all.

Now, willing to find the truth doesn't mean you don't trust the police. The investigation was put on a halt because there were no substancial proofs or clues regarding "what happened". This is the reason why Rokkenjima became a topic filled of mysteries and whatnot. There HAS to be more, but physical proofs on Rokkenjima are unlikely to be around.

I turn it over to you. If they found the bodies why would they wait so much time in declaring them dead? With my theory I can easily answer: they didn't find any body (at least not after a deep inspection), they had no mean to ascertain their deaths and therefore they couldn't state it without a proper examination.
And I turn to you even the pieces of jaw. Why would they found only the bones? How is that possible? I can answer with my theory, Maria's body was completely burned, only some pieces of her jaws survived the extreme heat.

Episode 1 endscroll clearly stated that the police investigation found the crime scene and it was "unimaginably gruesome", which is hardly possible to describe like this without the actual scene, blood etc.

Then, they DID found corpses, in fact, pieces of them. And you obviously cannot find pieces of corpses after these were plunged in lava or whatnot.

Episode 1 was shown as the following way: Battler, George, Jessica and Maria's corpses where nowhere to be found. However, the investigators found pieces of corpses from the other Ushiromiya. Only after they found the letter YEARS after, they found the jaw fragment, which certainly can explain why they found bones only for the second investigation.

[crazysjd89]

Originally Posted by Matrim

Playing devil's advocate here - people tend to do that, IMO. Like "everyone knows" that Oswald killed Kennedy or that Bin Laden organized 9/11 but that doesn't stop thousands of conspiracy theorists to search for other answers. What I don't buy is that no one would mention the volcano eruption, if only to make fun of the official version.

However, we're not talk some small group or something.

Witch hunters, Ange, journalist, TV station directors. The fact that the police questioned Eva is pretty much proof that they suspected her, also. And furthermore, the survivor's family and the captain don't seem to know what happened either.

So many people came to Nanjo's son that he become slightly pessimistic at them, as seen with Ange. It was even said, if I recall correctly, that many people would question why Eva wasn't in jail yet.

It is true that, as you say, people will take events and look at them differently, however, it is not normally so large an amount of people in such a small area and in such extreme ways.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Ange demonstrated to be able to find more things in a few days than the police in a few years. The letter and the mysterious safes are certainly important hints.

However, this wasn't so much police work as it was Ange having connections. Because her family was also involved was the only reason Nanjo's son even thought of letting her see the letter.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I'm sure you know Higurashi. What was the official reconstruction of the tragedy? Why is that many people didn't trust the authorites? The witch hunters are really no different. and they also have the same reason to doubt the official statements. Should it be a notebook or a message in a bottle, it doesn't really matter.
Even those that believed in the authorities they still questioned Eva. Why she was the only one to survive? Why she didn't bring with her the other family members? So people speculated she took advantage of the situation to let everyone die

As I stated above, it's not just the Witch Hunters. And it's as you said, the police questioned Eva, but why would they do this if the killings were a result of a natural disaster? Sure, you might be able to say Eva was cowardly and fleed without warning anyone, but that is not a crime.

Spoiler for Higurashi:

I try to not remember Higurashi when I'm reasoning for Umineko, in most cases. However, even if you say that, in Higurashi we were told about how it was a gas disaster.

Not only that, Hinamizawa was kept closed off, for a long time, which is why people started speculating supernatural stuff. Because there is no reason to seal one place off for so long due to a natural occurance. Just like how now Umineko is being sealed, however, you're claiming it really was a natural occurance, in which case it should be the oppisite. They shouldn't be keeping it sealed like in Higurashi.

Even more so, the scale can't even measure. Higurashi, an entire village died overnight.
Umineko, 17 people died somewhere in the course of 2 days and nights while they were trapped on the island.

[lovelysan]

Regarding Battler's fate at the end. My thoughts, to fit the red truth,

Spoiler for Epi 4~:

was that it was either poison (the wine) or a pre-existing condition/disease. In other words, and this is reaaaaallly reaching, but maybe he was going to die anyways.

My other thought is, maybe Beatrice is the typhoon itself. You know, a named storm. Hurric- er, Typhoon Beatrice. XD
Battler was standing outside a lot during the end. Maybe he got impaled by a tree branch or something.

.........I'm just throwing thoughts out there. ^^; . Feel free to disregad.


EDIT- Oh yeah, and about Sakutaro. My guess was that Rosa, after the ripping incident, felt guilty about it and made another Sakutaro doll. She might have been planning to give the toy to Maria on Rokenjiima, but lost/ left it somewhere on the way.

Remember, though Rosa is painted in an especially bad light in this episode, deed down, she really does love her daughter. (Rosa just needs a lot of therapy. ...or meds.)

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

We are comparing personal "squad" hired by Krauss with professional investigator, am I wrong?

The very definition of professional is "someone who does something as a job", Krauss' squad was as professional as the other. You can imply that Krauss's squad wasn't as competent, but that's merely your speculation.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

How is that a proof anyway? As I say, regardless where Ange is going, Kasumi would just need to follow what her information network report to her. If Ange is said to go to Niijima, it isn't really hard to figure she would try to get in Rokkenjima.

Again this is a stall, because we have no way to prove it. You say that going where it is easy to expect you are going it is as safe as to try to hide.
and imho this is absolutely wrong.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

These are only circumstancial: she happen to be much more close to Masayuki because of her "prime victim" status. Plus, unlike the police, she has a substancial clue. Aside of that, she herself isn't anything beyond a professional, that's all.

That's right she's no professional, however she has more clues, and she is in the position to find more than the professionals. This alone is reason enought to at least try to find something. Even Battler knows that he's just playing detective but that doesn't stop him from trying. You make it look like Ange just would give up trying only because she's not a professional. I disagree. If the Mansion was still there, Ange would definitely want to go there and see for herself.
And not just to find clues or such, but to see the place once more. If I was her I would definitely do that.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Now, willing to find the truth doesn't mean you don't trust the police. The investigation was put on a halt because there were no substancial proofs or clues regarding "what happened". This is the reason why Rokkenjima became a topic filled of mysteries and whatnot. There HAS to be more, but physical proofs on Rokkenjima are unlikely to be around.

Klashikari, do you have absolute faith that Ange trusts the police? If you can't provide a definitive proof you can't debunk my theory. You can debunk it with facts not with other speculations. I for myself do not state my theory is a fact, but as long as it's not denied I will stick with it.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Episode 1 endscroll clearly stated that the police investigation found the crime scene and it was "unimaginably gruesome", which is hardly possible to describe like this without the actual scene, blood etc.

I already said the endscroll imho are fake. They even say that people reached the golden land and Battler is a fool for denying witches. Unless they are in red I won't consider them reliable.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Then, they DID found corpses, in fact, pieces of them. And you obviously cannot find pieces of corpses after these were plunged in lava or whatnot.

That's not necessary that they were all plunged in lava. Some of them might, and that would explain how they disappeared. Some other might have been in areas that weren't directly covered, however the intense heat would still burn them to a crisp.

Originally Posted by crazysjd89

As I stated above, it's not just the Witch Hunters. And it's as you said, the police questioned Eva, but why would they do this if the killings were a result of a natural disaster? Sure, you might be able to say Eva was cowardly and fleed without warning anyone, but that is not a crime.

And that's precisely why she wasn't convicted. Is it even stated that Eva underwent a difficult process? She was simply questioned as it is normal. However if she was found as the sole survivor of 17 people who were clearly murdered and no other culprit could be found, she would be seriously questioned and she'd have a lot of trouble to clear her name. Let's say that only O.J. Simpson's attorney could save her

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

The very definition of professional is "someone who does something as a job", Krauss' squad was as professional as the other. You can imply that Krauss's squad wasn't as competent, but that's merely your speculation.

However, why would the witch side make Krauss pretend he doesn't know anything of Kuwadorian? Why despite Kuwadorian wasn't a secret starting from Episode 3?

And peaking of Kuwadorian, on the other hand, it is even more suspicious that the witch side shows Nanjo knowing this location (more than a mere rumor) and the fact he already wandered in the corridor.

That's right she's no professional, however she has more clues, and she is in the position to find more than the professionals. This alone is reason enought to at least try to find something. Even Battler knows that he's just playing detective but that doesn't stop him from trying. You make it look like Ange just would give up trying only because she's not a professional. I disagree. If the Mansion was still there, Ange would definitely want to go there and see for herself.
And not just to find clues or such, but to see the place once more. If I was her I would definitely do that.

She has more clues from the outside, which is clearly different from professionals who have used tools, experience and especially a team regarding this kind of research on the inside. And again, the whole situation didn't imply Ange wouldn't check the mansion afterwards.

Klashikari, do you have absolute faith that Ange trusts the police? If you can't provide a definitive proof you can't debunk my theory. You can debunk it with facts not with other speculations. I for myself do not state my theory is a fact, but as long as it's not denied I will stick with it.

And how the fact I cannot prove that Ange does trust the police automatically means I cannot debunk your theory? The fact your theory relies on a "non mention of the mansion" and "Ange not checking the mansion" doesn't mean it become untouchable just because I cannot claim with 100% proof that Ange trust what she learned from the police report back at that time.

I already said the endscroll imho are fake. They even say that people reached the golden land and Battler is a fool for denying witches. Unless they are in red I won't consider them reliable.

You are merging the endingscroll with the witch's record, which I cannot agree.
Episode 4 proved that Episode 1 endingscroll was arguably real, especially Maria's letter. Do you expect me to believe that "conveniently, only the police finding the corpses" portion is a lie, among the text explaining the whole aftermath, the fisherman finding the letter years afterwards etc?

The presence of the witch's record doesn't represent the whole ending scroll, otherwise, it doesn't make sense that only the record is in the TIPS.

That's not necessary that they were all plunged in lava. Some of them might, and that would explain how they disappeared. Some other might have been in areas that weren't directly covered, however the intense heat would still burn them to a crisp.

How is that possible that "the mansion has been destroyed by volcanic eruption" while "pieces of corpses were found"? Regardless of the magnitude of an eruption, you really need the said pieces to be REALLY AWAY of it.

To begin with, the volcanic eruption was primarily speculated so Battler can die without any other survivor around. If the eruption was so focalised, how can battler be killed like this? If you invoke the Devil's proof that there is no way to contradict both statement, how about flipping the same loophole with Ange first checking Kuwadorian before the Mansion? (ak... turning into wits? no thanks).


There is no checkmate for any side, but I certainly cannot buy so many convenient points from an eruption:
1) no mention with the massive media information
2) that corpses pieces could be found
3) that suddenly, only 1 part of the endinscroll is a lie.