[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[Karlson]

As far as the method used to kill is concerned...remember that this killer (if there in fact is one among the 18 people) is trying to make this look as much like the work of Beatrice and her demon magic as possible. That means that any form of evidence left behind such as a pool of blood on the carpet and a trail of blood leading towards the shed (made during the transport of the bodies) would not percieve that kind of image at all. So a weapon that causes massive bleeding right away likely wasn't used although I think it's still possible. I figure the rain would probably wash away the blood trail outside in the rose garden leading towards the shed but that doesn't help in the case of inside the mansion unless...

Quick question on this...I know many things can permanently stain a fancy carpet, but is blood among those things? Could someone technically wash blood off the carpet (without leaving a stain behind) and thus remove that bit of evidence that way?

Either way a gun was likely not used since I'd assume a gunshot wound would come up in the autopsy report regardless of where the bullet connected with the body and whether it went straight through or not.

Edit- I take back that last paragraph, the TIPS make it look like Rudolf suffered a gunshot wound to the head with that picture

[Klashikari]

It is possible, but it would require a lot of efforts and specific product. Of course, it won't remove any trace and it is always possible for the police to track down such clues.
But if the goal is only to avoid visible stain, it is "theorically" possible, but it highly depend of the context (the carpet etc) and the product (and we are in 1986).
So I believe the feat is really difficult.

[Karlson]

Yeah I should've been a bit more specific there. I'm mostly going for at least to the point of getting rid of the visible stain, which might be enough to hide it from everyone on the island. As far as cops/detectives are concerned it would take a lot more than that, but they're a non-factor here right now since this is taking place on an island in the middle of a storm and the phone lines are all dead

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

It is possible, but it would require a lot of efforts and specific product. Of course, it won't remove any trace and it is always possible for the police to track down such clues.
But if the goal is only to avoid visible stain, it is "theorically" possible, but it highly depend of the context (the carpet etc) and the product (and we are in 1986).
So I believe the feat is really difficult.

Well it would also depend on the color of the carpet, thickness, and if it had a natural pattern or not. It's not unreasonable to expect that on a dark colored carpet, blood might not be so noticeable in color.

I'd imagine the more difficult part would be the dampness; blood would certainly soak through carpet and into the padding beneath, which would act kind of like a sponge. If you've ever had flooding in a carpeted basement you know just how difficult it can be to dry carpet that's been completely soaked.

Of course, if the floors are not carpeted, but rather are hardwood or marble or such, cleanup changes drastically.

[sora1412]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Nope, not from what is shown at the activities before midnight. In fact, that's the whole point of that part in the show is to tell the viewers that the victims were not asleep. Right before the clock tolls, Gohda was doing puzzle, Shannon patrolling, the rest of the four in a discussion (I assume it's about the gold/Beatrice).
Since the murderer must kill them without any noise while they're awake. The murderer must be using "modern" weaponry (I realize that high-tech is a wrong word, what I mean is something along guns with silencer, poison gas, and the like). That or each of them is ambushed by several people.
In order to carry them out, you can't drag the corpse in a trolley or something like that cause it'll make a lot of noise. Even tho outside is raining, the noise would still be quite loud. The only way to solve this is by lifting the corpse one by one. But lifting an over 150 lbs all the way to the shed for 6 times back and forth will dissolve your shoulder. That's where the multiple killers part comes in.

I don't think they were killed individually. I guessing one was initially killed first instead. To put the blame on the witch, 5 were hastily chosen for that purpose. Lets not forget the rain was a typhon that prevented them from leaving the island. Noise would not be a concern as most of them were asleep and the noise of the rain would have covered any other "loud" noise.


It would be a monumental task to clean any stains found on the floor. However, it does not mean that they were not murdered/attacked within the mansion. Considering its 1986, my only guess is sleeping pills or a group of people executing the plan.

Lets not forget the doctor's conclusion may not be correct. If the doctor statement is false, then most of our theory is false too.

[Ithekro]

An interesting difference between Umineko and Higurashi at this point has been the point of view. For most of Higurashi's early arcs the point of view is K1's (the original protaganist) almost entirely. Here in Umineko, only part of the story has been seen from Battler's point of view. We've jumped from Shannon, to Natsuhi, to Rosa, to Battler, and to Kinzo with maybe one or two others from time to time. So we aren't seeing everything from just one person's point of view this time around.

If that means anything that is.

[D3monicWolv3s]

They could have been killed while standing on wood floors, most houses aren't all carpeted. Which I think cleaning blood up would be simpler on wood floors, but no one has really looked around the mansion much have they? Also to get that much blood on Natushi's door, and not drip blood on the floor near it seems anywhere from difficult to impossible... Seriously the person/being that did that to her door most have been drenched in blood, and walked up there. Or its supernatural which is what I'm thinking.

So I am thinking there will be blood somewhere in the house regardless of where its at.

[sora1412]

Originally Posted by D3monicWolv3s

They could have been killed while standing on wood floors, most houses aren't all carpeted. Which I think cleaning blood up would be simpler on wood floors, but no one has really looked around the mansion much have they? Also to get that much blood on Natushi's door, and not drip blood on the floor near it seems anywhere from difficult to impossible... Seriously the person/being that did that to her door most have been drenched in blood, and walked up there. Or its supernatural which is what I'm thinking.

So I am thinking there will be blood somewhere in the house regardless of where its at.

With exception of Battler who were not there for 6 years, all of the 17 members of the mansion came there every year and supposingly familiar with the surrounding of the house. Take note that the mansion is a western stlye house and most of those houses are carpetted (rich ones of course).

[D3monicWolv3s]

Originally Posted by sora1412

With exception of Battler who were not there for 6 years, all of the 17 members of the mansion came there every year and supposingly familiar with the surrounding of the house. Take note that the mansion is a western stlye house and most of those houses are carpetted (rich ones of course).

I meant look around as in during the time before they found the bodies, seeing anything unusual. (seeing blood stains) Typically not every room is carpeted in a house (kitchen/dining room/entry ways) Since you would have to clean those so much they are usually tile/wood.

[sora1412]

Originally Posted by D3monicWolv3s

I meant look around as in during the time before they found the bodies, seeing anything unusual. (seeing blood stains) Typically not every room is carpeted in a house (kitchen/dining room/entry ways) Since you would have to clean those so much they are usually tile/wood.

hehe

Anyways, if they were to find something strange, the question remains: were they murdered inside the mansion, or attacked inside the mansion?

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by sora1412

I don't think they were killed individually. I guessing one was initially killed first instead. To put the blame on the witch, 5 were hastily chosen for that purpose. Lets not forget the rain was a typhon that prevented them from leaving the island. Noise would not be a concern as most of them were asleep and the noise of the rain would have covered any other "loud" noise.

Lets not forget the doctor's conclusion may not be correct. If the doctor statement is false, then most of our theory is false too.

Around midnight, Battler, George, Jessica, Genji, and Kanon were not asleep. Genji and Kanon might sleep soon after since they have to take care everything the next morning but at least Battler and Jessica must have pulled an all-nighter. Unless they just happen to sleep for around 6 hours and right away when they wake up, they immediately get ready to play cards again.
Guns are pretty loud and gunshot has distinct noise from thunder. Unless thunder happen to roar every time a shot was fired, someone would notice it. Also when a trolley of enough size to carry a corpse or more is dragged against the soil, trust me when I say it'll be loud as f*ck. Since they're in an island with no traffic and passerby, I'm sure the noise will be noticeable at least by Battler and Jessica.

If the doctor's the killer, indeed the possible methods of killing have just increased severalfold.

[Christen]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Around midnight, Battler, George, Jessica, Genji, and Kanon were not asleep. Genji and Kanon might sleep soon after since they have to take care everything the next morning but at least Battler and Jessica must have pulled an all-nighter. Unless they just happen to sleep less than 6 hours and right away when they wake up, they immediately change to play cards.
Guns are pretty loud and the noise is distinct from thunder. Unless thunder happen to roar every time a shot was fired, someone would notice it. Also when a trolley of enough size to carry a corpse or more is dragged against the soil, trust me when I say it'll be loud as f*ck. Since they're in an island with no traffic and passerby, I'm sure the noise will be noticeable at least by Battler and Jessica.

The children did sleep. The scene where Maria wakes Battler, Jessica, and George up at 7am was omitted in the anime.

[Karlson]

I'm not saying everywhere is carpeted, but there are a number scenes that seem to tell me that alot of the mansion is carpeted. The scene where Rosa, Kyrie, Rudolf, and Krauss were talking together...that's entirely carpet flooring. Also, look back to the part where the golden butterfly follows Shannon...listen to the sounds of her footsteps...that does not sound like she's walking on hard flooring of any type. And I'm pretty sure where she was patrolling there in that scene was one of the many hallways with some of the bedrooms.

It's entirely possible that killer made his/her move with extraordinary timing and killed them on hard flooring, but it's just as likely that they were killed in a way that doesn't involve external bleeding. There are many, many various different ways man has killed man in our history. And alot of ways do happen without any said external bleeding.

However for the record I do believe it happened in the mansion. This is how I suspect it happened going by the "no supernatural powers happened" theory...

Since it's not the guests' jobs to worry about anything strange happening within the mansion, the killer probably first went for the servant in charge of patrolling the mansion that night which is Ghoda. The killer then proceeded to move towards the room where the older folks have been negotiating talks but ran unexpected into Shannon (who was not even supposed to be at the mansion) and had to kill her as well. While attempting to hide Shannon's body I assume this is when Eva and Hideyoshi went to bed (that is assuming they are innocent in this case).

Killing the servants off without leaving a trace of blood would be easy. They were alone thus might've been simply choked to death. It's the 4 guests where things get really complicated. My guess is the killer had to wait till they ceased the discussion and strike them after they parted ways to their own respective bedrooms. Likely I think Krauss was the first to be taken out of the bunch, whether Natsuhi is the prime suspect or not. Rosa was likely next since we know Maria is with the others in the guest house, so she was alone in her bedroom thus would've been suffocated easily. That leaves Rudolf and Kyrie. Rudolf in the TIPS looks like he has a hole on the upper area of his head so that might be a gunshot wound. If it was a gun it had to have a silencer attached. Granted even if it didn't have one the only ones that would hear it at this point would be Natsuhi and Kinzo. Kinzo I don't think even cares. He likely knows what's happening and is just letting it play out as planned.

So following that shot to the head, the killer likely then proceeded to suffocate Kyrie. And thus began the transporting phase...

Obviously it would have to start with Rudolf since he's bleeding. Suppressing the wound possibly by tying up one of the bed sheets around his head like a bandanna till the killer has carried the body outside where the rain can wash any possible drips. From then on transporting should be easy.

So what of the bloody mess left behind in Rudolf/Kyrie's bedroom? Well going by this theory it should only be the bed and possibly the wall behind the bed that leave traces of blood. The pillows and bed sheets you can toss into a fire in a fireplace or something and destroy the evidence that way. The matress is a different story. I guess the only thing to do there is flip the matress over with the clean side facing up and hope nobody finds the blood until its too late. Problem with that is, the surviving servants might find out about it since that is part of their job to clean up the rooms. Of course me being very suspicious of Genji personally that works out fine with me

[Paranoia833]

Originally Posted by Karlson

As far as the method used to kill is concerned...remember that this killer (if there in fact is one among the 18 people) is trying to make this look as much like the work of Beatrice and her demon magic as possible. That means that any form of evidence left behind such as a pool of blood on the carpet and a trail of blood leading towards the shed (made during the transport of the bodies) would not percieve that kind of image at all. So a weapon that causes massive bleeding right away likely wasn't used although I think it's still possible. I figure the rain would probably wash away the blood trail outside in the rose garden leading towards the shed but that doesn't help in the case of inside the mansion unless...

Assuming the killer is fantastically good with a gun and can shoot them all in the head, part of the reason they mutilated the faces after death might be to remove the bullet wound and hide the fact they were killed with mundane methods.

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by Paranoia833

Assuming the killer is fantastically good with a gun and can shoot them all in the head, part of the reason they mutilated the faces after death might be to remove the bullet wound and hide the fact they were killed with mundane methods.

That may be the case if the bullet didn't penetrate it completely but if it did I don't think any amount of mutilating the face is gonna hide that. Of course maybe I shouldn't say that when I havn't seen a real live autopsy done in person before.

Originally Posted by Christen

The children did sleep. The scene where Maria wakes Battler, Jessica, and George up at 7am was omitted in the anime.

So the discovery of the bodies didn't happen till at least past that time.

Assuming the doctor's autopsy is correct on the 6 hours part these bodies could've been dead at any point between midnight and 1am at least. THat's a huge buffer zone. That could mean the victims died at drastically different times and not within the span of a few minutes one after another

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Christen

The children did sleep. The scene where Maria wakes Battler, Jessica, and George up at 7am was omitted in the anime.

Oh f*ck, so right after they wake up, Battler and Jessica just go play cards right away, and George read books. What a bunch of healthy kids. Anyways, in that case, just forget my post.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by sora1412

With exception of Battler who were not there for 6 years, all of the 17 members of the mansion came there every year and supposingly familiar with the surrounding of the house. Take note that the mansion is a western stlye house and most of those houses are carpetted (rich ones of course).

I'd assume the opposite, actually. Hardwood or stone floors (possibly with elaborate rugs) tend to be more indicative of wealth than carpet, at least in my opinion. And unlike carpet, rug can be switched out quickly.

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Guns are pretty loud and gunshot has distinct noise from thunder. Unless thunder happen to roar every time a shot was fired, someone would notice it. Also when a trolley of enough size to carry a corpse or more is dragged against the soil, trust me when I say it'll be loud as f*ck. Since they're in an island with no traffic and passerby, I'm sure the noise will be noticeable at least by Battler and Jessica.

1. It's a big mansion, with more than one wing. A gunshot may be loud, but when you're hearing it through several walls and one or two floors, it will be a lot quieter. Plus quality buildings tend to be more sound-insulating than cheap ones.

2. The guest house is a fair distance away from the mansion, and I believe it's in the opposite direction as the tool shed.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

1. It's a big mansion, with more than one wing. A gunshot may be loud, but when you're hearing it through several walls and one or two floors, it will be a lot quieter. Plus quality buildings tend to be more sound-insulating than cheap ones.

2. The guest house is a fair distance away from the mansion, and I believe it's in the opposite direction as the tool shed.

As a killer, I don't think you can really assume that when the murder is carried in a quiet island devoid from a lot of city noises. That also assume if when one of the victims is shot, everyone is perfectly away in enough distance not to hear the gunshot. Did you miss the part where the victims were all awake in times of death in the same part of the mansion?

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

As a killer, I don't think you can really assume that when the murder is carried in a quiet island devoid from a lot of city noises. That also assume if when one of the victims is shot, everyone is perfectly away in enough distance not to hear the gunshot. Did you miss the part where the victims were all awake in times of death in the same part of the mansion?

Only the four people who stayed up late talking (Krauss, Rudolph, Kyrie, and Rosa) were in the same part of the mansion, in the dining hall. Shannon could have been patrolling any part of the mansion when she was attacked -- she was checking the windows, so she would have been going through each wing on all three floors. Eve, Hideyoshi, and Natsuhi would have been sleeping on the second or third floor. Kinzo's study is on the third floor, but in any event Kinzo probably wouldn't have cared if he did hear gunshots. Gohda, I'm not sure what floor he was on.

And during a typhoon, any muffled gunshot from a distant part of the mansion is probably just going to be thought of as distant thunder.

Though I agree, the four people who were together probably weren't shot. I personally think it most likely they were poisoned -- excluding the grandchildren, any of the survivors could have easily and without arousing suspicion had those four served some food or drink which the culprit had poisoned in advance. Since Gohda would have been the one doing the serving, he then could have been shot to finish off the job.

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

Only the four people who stayed up late talking (Krauss, Rudolph, Kyrie, and Rosa) were in the same part of the mansion, in the dining hall. Shannon could have been patrolling any part of the mansion when she was attacked -- she was checking the windows, so she would have been going through each wing on all three floors. Eve, Hideyoshi, and Natsuhi would have been sleeping on the second or third floor. Kinzo's study is on the third floor, but in any event Kinzo probably wouldn't have cared if he did hear gunshots. Gohda, I'm not sure what floor he was on.

And during a typhoon, any muffled gunshot from a distant part of the mansion is probably just going to be thought of as distant thunder.

Though I agree, the four people who were together probably weren't shot. I personally think it most likely they were poisoned -- excluding the grandchildren, any of the survivors could have easily and without arousing suspicion had those four served some food or drink which the culprit had poisoned in advance. Since Gohda would have been the one doing the serving, he then could have been shot to finish off the job.

It would depend on what kind of food he was preparing. If say he was making some soup then he could've likely left the area for a few minutes doing the crossword while waiting for the stove to warm it up. That would be the golden opportunity to slip poison in.

If the 4 guests had to die all at once in that specific room that would be pretty much the only way to do it.