History and Counterfactual speculations discussions

[LeoXiao]

I'm more interested in the story, to be honest, but of course, if a novel/film tries to make the AH a big part of it yet still fails totally on the plausibility aspect, it's kinda meh. The Draka series are like that.

More TL:

YELLOW RIVER INCIDENT, Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 （黃河開戰）PART I

The CPA had three initial operational goals. The first of these was to capture the urban and industrial centers of Wuchang, Hankou, and Hanyang, a task entrusted to generals Jia Deyao, Wang Jiasheng, and their force of 100,000 troops. Simultaneously, the Shaanxi Route Army, under the command of He Yingqin, would take another 80,000 men to advance along the Yellow River to Xi’an, driving straight at the locus of Mao and Zhang’s base area. Then, general Zhang Zhizhong would take 60,000 shock troops to take the Jiangsu coast and prepare to link up with Jia’s army group for a joint assault on Nanjing.

Advance on Xi’an and Wuchang, Nov 1937

The first shots of the war, known as the Yellow River Incident (Chinese: 十一零一事變, i.e. Nov. 1 Incident) broke out early in the morning of Nov. 1 when elements of He Yingqin’s forces conducting exercises between Zhengzhou and Luoyang attacked known Maoist bases. For the first few days, the radicals assumed that the violence could simply be attributed to the usual rivalry between warlords that had persisted since the fall of the Qing, but as whole peasant militias began disappearing, with survivors reporting back to Xi’an their clashes with regiment-sized formations, it became clear that war had broken out. By the end of the month, three divisions were near Xi’an, having marched along the Yellow River and capturing everything in their path. Few casualties were sustained by the attackers, but between 10,000 and 20,000 Maoist militia fighters were killed or taken prisoner. Seeing that Xi’an stood no chance against Liao’s numbers, organization, training, and artillery, Mao made plans to abandon the city and take to the hills to preserve his forces.

Meanwhile, Jia Deyao and Wang Jiasheng’s thrust to Wuchang had gone even more smoothly. There was virtually no fighting until the police of the Wuhan area finally began to question the need for moving thousands of men and weapons by rail to the cities. It was too late for any organized resistance and the urban area was taken by mid-November and put under martial law. General Wang was left to defend the cities with a 30,000-strong garrison while Jia continued on to Nanjing.

Nanjing Offensive, Nov. 1937

Generals Sun and Zhang, based out of Xuzhou, moved at a brisk pace, securing all of Jiangsu north of the Yangtze River delta within two weeks. They set up positions near the Gaoyou and Hongze lakes north of Nanjing and began to shell federal positions in anticipation of the general assault to occur on arrival of Jia’s army. Sun and Zhang’s forces, which were the best-motorized, were also supported by Liu Zhennian’s single Beiyang division, while several thousand personnel of the Republican Guard aided in performing logistical duties.

1st Battle of Nanjing, Dec. 1937 - Feb. 1938

By late November, Guangdong had received word of the organized insurrection and was taking steps to rectify the situation. An enraged Wang Jingwei entrusted the “complete annihilation” of the “traitorous elements” to generals Zhao Hengti and Li Zongren. They were promised initial command of an army of 600,000 to consolidate the Central Plains. Wang, who had a reputation for remaining aloof, was described by an aide as “completely adamant” during a meeting on Nov. 13.

Of course, only a fraction of that 600,000 were actually available for the immediate defense of Nanjing and other towns. Zhao and Li pulled troops from all over the country on their way north, and managed to scrounge up about 100,000 soldiers of varying quality. They reinforced the 20,000-strong Nanjing garrison and braced for the assault.

Jia’s army joined with Zhang and Sun’s, forming a wide front north of the city. The combined force totaled about 150,000 men as the impression of local militias into joining the offensive had added a few thousands to the mix. They had with them over two thousand artillery pieces of various calibers, as well as a motorized brigade of 7,000 men commanded by Colonel Sun Liren, who would later become famous as the “Lightening General” for his role in the Second Japanese Intervention and the latter stage of the Mainland War.

The defenders were, for their part, not badly outfitted either. Li and Zhao had been given exclusive access to whichever available supplies and transport routes they required. In addition to almost a thousand artillery guns, a few dozen fighter aircraft based in Shanghai were available for use. Most of them were older models provided by the Japanese, but they were better than nothing and could be used in a ground attack role to suppress the enemy.

After a period of sustained artillery bombardment and gradual approach to the city, the CPA forces finally attacked head-on on Dec. 16. Zhang Zhizhong took the northeastern route while Jia Deyao came in from the west. Col. Sun Liren and Liu Zhennian, the latter of whom had returned from a week-long meeting with member of the Beiyang High Command in Beijing, combined their forces in an attempt to drive east and then south around Nanjing to cut it off the Shanghai-bound railroad.

When the invaders entered the city, they saw the results of their bombardments. Thousands of civilians had been killed or wounded and many buildings had been reduced to rubble, but the federalists’ will to fight had not wavered. Instead, they turned the fight for northern Nanjing into a vicious trap. Federal troops would dress in civilian clothing and use their feigned innocence to maneuver into the enemy rear before opening fire, the result being numerous reprisal attacks against the city’s male residents. The CPA troops, especially the militias and the Beiyang soldiers, also discovered that they were at a simple technological disadvantage due to the fact that the Japanese-supplied Federalist troops were often armed with submachineguns and light machine guns, in following the Japanese idea of superior firepower. By contrast, they themselves were often armed only with rifles, which in an urban setting made for awkward handling.

By New Year’s Day, the forces of Jia and Zhang had sustained over 40,000 casualties and yet the city still had not succumbed. Making things worse was the fact that while Li Zongren and Zhao Hengti’s troops were being reinforced as quickly as possible, Liu Zhennian had failed to secure the full support of the Beiyang Army. Reportedly the Grand Marshal was angry that his non-interventionist policy had been violated and had refused to meet with Liu when he had gone to Beijing in November. The High Command members present, recognizing that the situation demanded at least some measure of action, allotted Liu a trickle of reinforcements pulled from the ranks of the Republican Guard, and even ensured that each soldier would be acceptably armed and supplied. However, it was a far cry from the “full support” that Liu had promised Jia at the Funeral Conference.

By the opening days of February, Jia Deyao met with Zhang Zhizhong and the two decided that the assault on Nanjing could not continue without meaningful Beiyang intervention. As the CPA forces retreated, the defenders celebrated the end of the First Battle of Nanjing.


State of Affairs circa 1938

National Republic of China
Description: The best-organized faction, based in Northeast China. The Beiyang troops are arguably the most effective fighting force in the country. Emerging military-industrial complex, with native small arms, artillery, and aircraft production.
Locus: Fengtian, Manchuria.
Leader: Grand Marshal Yuan Kewen
Governance: Parliamentary republic subordinated to military administration. Effective martial law.
Subject Population: c. 50 million
Military Strength: About 300,000 "Beiyang troops" and officers, 3-5 million "Republican Guard" militia units.
Economy/Industry: Significant regional exporter of coal, iron, and various agricultural products. Intensive light industrial development and limited foreign heavy industrial presence in Fengtian, Jilin, and Harbin areas (primarily German and Soviet). Economic capital and manpower largely subordinated to military.
Foreign relations
Federation: POOR/WAR
USA: NEUTRAL/FAIR
USSR: GOOD
Germany: FAIR
Japan: POOR
UK: NEUTRAL
France: NEUTRAL

Chinese Federative Republic
Description: Loose, left-leaning federation of regional leaders in China proper with central government in provisional capital of Guangdong. founded on the democratic ideals of Sun Zhongshan, whose 1926 assassination remains a mystery. Actual land under its effective administration is limited to coastal regions and certain urban centers.
Locus: Guangzhou, Guangxi+Guangdong
Leader: President Wang Jingwei
Governance: Democratic federal system loosely based on American separation of powers ideal, varying levels of actual representation depending on region and social strata.
Subject Population: c. 100 million (actual), c. 300 million (nominal)
Military Strength: About 1 million regular and semi-regular, warlord-aligned troops, plus unknown number of militiamen. Less than 500,000 fit for use.
Economy/Industry: Intensive light industrial development in Liangguang, Shanghai, Fujian, and Wuhan areas. Growing coal production. Extensive trade and development in cooperation with Japan.
Foreign Relations:
USA: NEUTRAL/POOR
USSR: NEUTRAL/FAIR
Germany: NEUTRAL/POOR
Japan: EXCELLENT
UK: NEUTRAL
France: NEUTRAL/FAIR

Yunnan Regime
Description: A de facto independent state in southwest China with aspirations to conquer the whole country. Influence among the warlords that plague the Federalists. Has decent discipline among both military and civilians and isn't a complete hellhole.
Locus: Kunming, Yunnan
Leader: General Tang Jiyao
Governance: Military government, martial law.
Subject Population: c. 30 million
Military Strength: About 400,000 troops, including those of warlord allies
Economy/Industry: Intensive light industrial development in Kunming. Foreign trade and investment largely limited to France and Britain.
USA: NEUTRAL
USSR: POOR
Germany: NEUTRAL
Japan: POOR
UK: FAIR/GOOD
France: GOOD

Maoist Peasant Movement
Description: A grass-roots Marxist movement born out of the warlord conflicts in the 1920s in southern China. Immediate, lumenproletariat revolution focus as contrasted with the Federalist position which allows for modulated change.
Locus: Xi'an, Shaanxi Province
Leader: Chairman Mao Zedong/General Zhang Jingyao
Governance: "Classless proletarian commune system under guidance of revolutionary personalities"
Subject Population: c. 50 million
Military Strength: 150,000 Red Army members, plus unknown number of peasant fighters and warlord allies.
Economy/Industry: Collectivized subsistence agriculture. Command economy in urban areas.
Federation: GOOD
Beiyang: WAR
Muslims: WAR
CPA: WAR
USSR: NEUTRAL/FAIR
Japan: FAIR

Central Plains Alliance/Wuchang Clique
Description: Alliance of rebelling Federation generals unimpressed with Federal incompetence. Most officers are of the Wuchang (Hubei) clique that was absorbed into the CFR in the late 20s. They intend to ally with the NROC in order to unify China.
Locus: Xuzhou-Zhengzhou, Central Plains area
Leader: General Jia Deyao
Governance: Military occupation zone, martial Law
Subject population: c. 75 million
Military Strength: Around 400,000 troops of all sorts, including about 150,000 regulars.
Economy/Industry: Agriculture, light industrial development in urban areas impeded due to warfare.
Foreign Relations:
Beiyang: FAIR
Federation: WAR
Japan: POOR

Muslim Warlords
Description: Various local strongmen and factions in western China and areas such as Xinjiang. Elements extend from west of Shaanxi Province down into parts of Sichuan.
Locus: Western China
Leader: Various
Governance: Military government
Subject Population: c. 30 million
Military Strength: > 200,000 militiamen of varying quality and allegiance.
Foreign Relations:
Federation: POOR/NEUTRAL
Beiyang: NEUTRAL/FAIR
Yunnan: POOR/WAR

Next: YELLOW RIVER INCIDENT Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 PART II
We will get to see the Beiyang High Command's reactions in greater detail.

[Ridwan]

Leo, have you read "The Power of The Gun" by Edward McCord ?

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Ridwan

Leo, have you read "The Power of The Gun" by Edward McCord ?

I think I may have read parts of it but didn't get it because I was looking for something else in the library. I'll have to give it a shot.
To be honest my detailed knowledge of the warlords and dynamics between them is somewhat limited. I guess that says something about the depth of my TL...

[Ridwan]

I have it here. I can upload it to you if you want.

[Sumeragi]

I would definitely like that book. I really don't know what to do with China in my project.

[LeoXiao]

Give it here.

[Ridwan]

Here you go.

[Fireminer]

Question: Are there any person from South East Asia that has large impact on Muslim Philosophy?

[Ridwan]

Locally ? A lot. But you can say that South East Asia was one of the main theaters of the clash between sufism and strict orthodoxy. Nuruddin ar-Raniri wasn't a native south east asian, but he was active in Acehnese court and helped the country blossoming into one of the most reputed international Islamic center of learning. A champion of Orthodoxy, he was the one who paved the road for Sunni Orthodoxy into the region and naturally responsible for the reactions against it. Though you can't say his role was irreplaceable, but he was part of the general development of anti-mysticist orthodoxy that included Aurangzeb and Muhammad bin Abdul Wahhab.

[Fireminer]

Thanks! Just imagine how would Muslim be if it was spread through northern Indochina. Would be any crossed with China influenced?

[Ridwan]

It's definitely a wonder why some parts of Indochina didn't go Islamic. Perhaps because it began developing strong polities at roughly the same time Islam was making inroad into the archipelago. But Champa was conquered pretty late by Vietnam so one can wonder how to save it. Vietnam will be hard though since it had already found basis for strong statehood in Chinese Confucian model, unless it will be imposed by converted Chinese conqueror, which is another set of question.

China has never been a stranger to Islam. First contact happened during Tang Dynasty and muslim community had been growing in China ever since. Chinese muslims were important and powerful during both Yuan and Ming eras, and the Qing regime was often quite suspicious towards them and 5 muslim rebellions happened during their rule. If you want a muslim China it'll be quite hard, and it can't be done immediately. A religious movement set to reform China will end up like Taiping but simply a muslim dynasty would be doable. Zhu Yuanzhang employed many muslim generals in his service. Had the late Yuan chaos proceeded a bit differently a muslim dynasty is fairly possible. Chinese Islam will be more a case of sinicization of Islam rather then the other way around though, and it will have to share the slot with the traditional big 3 in Chinese spiritual and intellectual discourse.

[erneiz_hyde]

Originally Posted by Ridwan

It's definitely a wonder why some parts of Indochina didn't go Islamic.

You know, when I play Europa Universalis, I was wondering the same thing. Or rather, the reverse of it. How did Islam manage to take root that strongly in the first place? I'm expecting the answer lies in our people's knack at syncretism.

[Ridwan]

Syncretist tendencies certainly helped smoothening the process, but the trigger was gold. Converting to Islam helped you gathering muslim traders from across Indian Ocean to your kingdom to buy your produce and invest money in your domain, giving you an edge against your rivals. Which is the same way the region converted to Indian religions a millenia earlier. The Hindu wave though, included Indochina region while the later Islam wave largely excluded it.

[Fireminer]

Well, I might not know much about Islam, by traditional Vietnamese believe and Confusian certainly giving us a boost in nationalism.

And trading with Muslim did occur as early as Tran Dynasty. But during Mongolian rule of China, Muslim merchants also dubbed as spies. Maybe that's one of the reason that Muslim is not very popular here.

[Ridwan]

More likely candidate for conversion would be Khmer and Siam. Khmer would need a strong Champa next door. Siam is a more difficult question. It's not particularly resistant or anything, but I guess the geography is relatively isolated. It converted to Hindu-Buddhism through Khmer and Sumatran influences but at the time Islam started to take root in SE Asia both countries were at the down swing and only one of them took up Islam.

[Fireminer]

That or An Nam finally conquered both Cambodia and Laos... Could make Hindu a lot more prominent.

Also, I just want to ask whether are there connection between Muslim and Hindu?

[Ridwan]

Nothing essential, but both religions meet, clash and intermingle in the entire Indic sphere.

That or An Nam finally conquered both Cambodia and Laos... Could make Hindu a lot more prominent.

That's definitely not the way. If anything it will spell doom for ethnic Lao and Khmer, or at least they will become minority in their own country.

[Fireminer]

You know, I've been imagine about a "Soviet Union of Indochina" after Red Khmer. The domestic picture pretty much completed, but I want to ask about the international impact - for example, an arm race between Vietnam and Thailand,...

[Ridwan]

Would any kind of Indochina union be tenable without an outside patron ? Besides, Vietnam did clientized both Laos and Cambodia IOTL. Why didn't they form the Soviet Union IOTL with two other countries already under control ?

[Fireminer]

Well, do you know that even after Saigon Liberation, there are still leftover of the SVA wandering in the border. What if they managed for one last strike to Vietnam? A coalition with Red Khmer - remember that their backers, China and US were pretty much friendly then, unlike China to Vietnam, which were standing with Soviet.