History and Counterfactual speculations discussions

[Fireminer]

Have been thinking about a Wining Scenario for South Vietnam. But would a victory in Vietnam encouraged US and Korea to continue their fight, or would US stop because they don't want to anger China, since the two relationship were in the Defrosting period?

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

I suppose I'll have to tear apart The Red's ignorance of Korean politics of the time. Kim will never come to power if the Soviets occupy most of Korea, and this isn't even considering the Korean Provisional Government.

Do explain. I heard that Kim was only one possibility among several camps, but know little about the matter.

[Ithekro]

Would that be a version of hostory were South Vietnam gets aggressive and invades North Vietnam with the goal of taking out the Communist government? Because I don't recall the US and South Vietnam every going that route. Just attempting to stop the North Vietnamese and Viet Con from taking South Vietnam.

In fact I don't remember any offensives into North Vietnam that weren't just air offensives and the like. I don't recall any sort of plans to take Hanoi or anything, aside from an invasion into Cambodia to stop the flow of Communist supplies in 1970.

[Fireminer]

Yes, it is. Actually, contradict to what people think, President Ngo Dinh Diem did have a plan for a Northern Expedition. However, the US and turmoils in South Vietnam stop him to do it.

In second though, screw that idea of mine. To be able to curb Communism, South Vietnam has to take out to the Root, the lowest level. And we all know how hard it is with the peasants and workers supported Communist Party.

[Sumeragi]

Korea's Fate if the Kyujou Coup Succeeded


1. Political Situation in Korea Before Soviet Entry into Korea

Already by August 1944 there was the Korean Restoration Brotherhood (KRB), a nationwide underground organization. Led by Lyuh Woon-hyung, who was supported by both left-wing activists and the masses, this organization was the base upon which the Committee for the Preparation of Korean Independence (CPKI) was established, which formed the People's Republic of Korea, a short-lived provisional government that was organized with the aim to take over control of Korea shortly after the Surrender of the Empire of Japan at the end of World War II. This was OTL.

Within the context of ATL, there is this to consider. Already on August 14th the Government General of Korea had invited Lyuh to discuss the transfer of power to the Koreans, and met on the morning of the 15th. The powers of government and security was already passed to Lyuh before the broadcast in Japan happened, and Lyuh activated KRB for takeover. Even if the Kyujou Coup succeeded, we would be in the situation where the Government General of Korea was effectively abolished, leaving only the IJA as the main opponent.

As a side note, already in July the Soviets agreed to the principle of Korean division with the US. Of course, given that the line was not settled until General Order No. 1 was approved by Truman on the 17th, this will most likely not be a big factor.


2. Soviet Actions

In OTL, the Soviet Army allowed CPKI to continue to function since they were friendly to the Soviet Union, but still established the Soviet Civil Authority to begin to centralize the independent committees. Further provisional committees were set up across the country putting Communists into key positions. This was the opposite of the policies of the United States Army Military Government in Korea, which abolished CPKI thus undermining the left-wing leaders who were in the south. It was because of this division that the Soviets began to rely largely on exiled Communists who returned to Korea at the end of World War II as well as ethnic Koreans who were part of the large Korean community in the USSR and therefore Soviet citizens. There were very few left-wing supporters and Communist cadres in the north, so the Soviets had to bring the likes of Kim Il-sung to gain support of the Korean people. This was why the North Korea Bureau of the Communist Party of Korea was established, as a separate center of Communist activities from the south.

In the context of ATL, assuming the IJA Army of Korea was subdued fairly quickly (an unlikely event), the Soviets would most likely have done the same policies as OTL, except with control over almost all of Korea. This means that the southern left-wing leaders such as Pak Hon-yong would have been able to collaborate with the Soviets. Pak was the leader of the Korean Communist Party, which was reestablished in 1945 in OTL. With most of Korea under the Soviets, the southern Communists would have been able to have large influence in the policies of the Soviet occupation, effectively undermining Soviet support for Kim Il-sung. At the same time, the nationalist leaders would most likely have been crushed by the Soviet occupation.

Aside from the Domestic Communist faction, there was the Soviet Koreans, led by Alexei Ivanovich Hegay. They were made up of waves of ethnic Koreans who were born or raised in Russia after their families moved there starting in the 1870s. Some of them had returned to Korea covertly as Communist operatives in the twenties and thirties but most were members of the Red Army or civilians who were stationed in North Korea following World War II to help the Red Army establish a Soviet satellite. Many came as translators or as Russian language instructors. With most of Korea under control, these Soviet Koreans would have a greater impact on Korea, thus further destroying the support of the Guerrilla faction, led by Kim Il-sung.

Basically, a Korea under Soviet occupation is not a place where Kim would have been able to thrive. He was supported by the Soviets only because there were no real alternatives in a divided Korea. With a relatively pro-Soviet CPKI working to form a People's Republic of Korea and the Korean Communist Party returning in full force under Pak, a mere soldier like Kim would have been pushed aside.


3. Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea

With Korea under effective Soviet occupation, what would the pro-US Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea (PGROK) have done? At first it appears as if PGROK would simply fade away. Of course, this line of thought ignores what the Korean Liberation Army (KLA) under PGROK had been planning: "invasion" of Korea with military operations specialist on August 20th. In cooperation with OSS, KLA had trained 94 special troops for airdrop guerrilla warfare in Korea, to be followed up by the rest of KLA (over 1,000 troops). With the news that Japan would be surrendering, the purpose was changed to receiving the surrender of Japanese troops and preparing the way for PGROK entry into southern Korea. Assuming the Kyujou Coup succeeded, the operation would have gone as planned. This introduces a new factor into Korean politics. PGROK was considered the legitmate provisional government by most Koreans, and Lyuh was prefectly willing to work with it (otherwise he would not have set up Syngman Rhee as the president of the People's Republic of Korea). With support from the nationalist factions in Korea, the entry of PGROK into the Korean warzone would have had large consequences.

Of course, given how easy it is for the entire operation to be canceled under the distinction of the US, this might not even be a factor for this ATL. However, it should be noted that PGROK was never entirely out of the fight.

[Ridwan]

It's just that hard for me to like any of those "Japan doesn't surrender" TLs. All the ones I've seen have never passed so far beyond juvenile fascination for dark, gritty crapsack scenario with subconscious prejudices creeping under the blanket.

[Ithekro]

The only way I see a "Japan doesn't surrender" happen is if the US does not deploy the atomic bomb. And even then I don't know how much more the Japanese people (and Emperor) would take before they surrendered. Would it lead up to the Invasion of Japan before they surrendered? The Soviet's betrayal in August maybe? Is that what it would take to get Korea as one country instead of two? Would it be a divided Japan instead to counterpoint a divided Germany and Austria?

[Ridwan]

It wasn't about the atomic bomb that they surrendered. It was more about the connections between Japanese and American elites.

[Ridwan]

A WI Question : Is there anyway to pass Philippines to French rule after Waterloo ? 19th century Spain strikes me as perennially close to civil war and thus consequently dragging French intervention in. How to get a Spanish civil war during the reign of Napoleon III in France ?

[Sumeragi]

You could read this for ideas.

[Ridwan]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You could read this for ideas.

Ah, that TL. How long has it been...

Thanks, I now get the idea how to. A better reformed French military can perhaps actually win and later demand Philippines as part of reparation. It rises a couple of other questions though.

Have you taken a look on either "Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel" or "Malê Rising" ? The later already numbers on 170 something updates though, while the former is perhaps too optimistic but nevertheless just as much an intriguing idea. Though I still have my doubts on German Ezo and, increasingly, Satsuma Shogunate.

[Sumeragi]

Taken a look, but I've always been more of an "After 1900" person.

[Ridwan]

Heh, it's funny that you'll get there before I do. I'm partial for "Before-1900" since I'm more into alternate cultural/intellectual developments. Also, it provides more opportunity towards achieving a more politically and culturally balanced world.

[Fireminer]

How about a "Roman Empire" Era? I've always thinking about the idea of Ceasar hadn't got that nasty stab from Brutus. But again, where would he conquer? Silk Road to China?

[Rokumonsen]

Probably India. He'll definitely want to continue where Alexander left of.

[Ridwan]

There is this thing called logistic against any empire trying to break their expansion limit. Also, while this isn't applicable to Alexander (which was one of few historical exceptions) you really should avoid thinking that Persia is passable. For most of its history, Persia has been one of the biggest cultural and power centers in the world. Alexander invaded it at the right time and had closer power base as well as employed cavalry extensively(the trait possessed by everyone who managed to conquer Persia). Caesar had none of those. He'll might try, but he'll fail.

[NoemiChan]

Originally Posted by Fireminer

How about a "Roman Empire" Era? I've always thinking about the idea of Ceasar hadn't got that nasty stab from Brutus. But again, where would he conquer? Silk Road to China?

I think Caesar will take most of his remaining days fighting against Parthia. But I disagree if he'll managed to even reach India, at least he'll only cover what Trajan had done. The Parthian Empire was kinda a tough opponent at that time ( anniliating Crassus' legions in Carrae) and also covering a huge territory with a huge diversity of people and cultures. If Caesar managed to bring Parthia into the Roman Republic, his successor Augustus could have the chance to ust sent an army to reach India but I doubt setting a stronghold is rather impossible. Besides, Roman politics, he might live longer but being far from Rome and gaining more victories for her will only bring out more opposition to him.

But I liked the idea if the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire be fighting at the areas east of the Caspian Sea aka. Central Asia. I think that is the only place where the two could spar at that time.

Why not talk about if Caesar managed to have become Rome's first emperor instead of Octavian? Will the Roman Empire be the same? Will Arabia and Germania be conquered at last?

[ChainLegacy]

I don't think Caesar would significantly alter the conquering capabilities of Rome in his lifetime. He may have been able to alter history significantly through indirect changes, however.

There is the possibility that Caesar could have embarked on campaigns east of the Rhine, and had he been successful, would circumvent the Teutoburg Forest disaster. Rome's later aversion to campaigns in this area seemed more like a historical fear than a rational aversion to conflict - they very well could have conquered the whole of Germania, then who knows? Additional resources in the next century could help their attempts at eastward conquest as well.

Caesar's survival could also potentially alter the structure of Emperor rule, as well as change completely the order of succession that followed his death... Completely unpredictable how that would occur and what the results would be from our present, highly removed vantage point.

Also, we had a little discussion about an interesting alternate scenario (well, interesting in my view... I'm the one who brought it up lol) for the Roman era earlier in this thread, before it was as popular:

Originally Posted by ChainLegacy

An interesting alternative history scenario (which could potentially have made a vast difference in the modern age) would be if the Gauls had decided to occupy or destroy the Romans rather than exact tribute following the Battle of Allia. This would be entirely possible and is not a far fetched change from reality. Though a Celtic Europe was seemingly already being influenced by Mediterranean cultures via Greek merchants, the tradition of law and various other aspects of the Western world might be completely different. And who knows if the Germanic invasions would ever have occurred on the scale they did without the incentive of pilfering, or becoming by citizenship, one of the Romans.

[erneiz_hyde]

Another Roman idea that I find interesting is if Constantine never elevated Christianity's status to be Rome's official religion. Has this been done before? I'd like to read a TL like this once.

[Ridwan]

I'm looking to formulate an "evil ideology" in the place of OTL fascism for my Ottoman TL and a proper name for it. Since it will emerge as a response to not only radical marxism, but also the resurgence of Islamic Ottoman power, will it turn out to be something like Clash-of-civilizations/Defense-of-Europe mentality developing into a coherent ideological force ?