[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[Marion]

Just for clarification on Nanjo: He's the family attending physician (majorly Kinzo's though) and a long time friend of Kinzo's. Everyone is fighting over the inheritance especially now because Nanjo has stated that Kinzo will most likely pass within 3 months. However, what wasn't stated by the anime was how it was mentioned during the adult talk that Nanjo has been telling the family that Kinzo is set to die in 3 months for the past year or two.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

I definitely have. Had lightning strike a tree outside my house, it sounded like nothing if not a gunshot.



1. The people in bed presumably have their eyes closed.
2. You'd only see the flash if it was in the field of view of the window. If the windows in the room face east, and lightning strikes to the west, you'd see almost no flash.
3. If the windows have shutters, you'd only see a noticeable flash if the shutters are open.



Which also means they need to smuggle it back past customs, and of course they'd need to take the trip overseas in the first place.



Every time you break the law, you increase the risk of being caught, too. And it would take a substantial amount of preparation; we don't know how far in advance the killings were planned.



I said unwitting, as in an accomplice who didn't know he was an accomplice. It could be done very easily:

1. Poison some particular foodstuff -- for example a particular blend of tea.
2. Have Gohda serve that food. Natsuhi or Kinzo could just ask directly, while one of the other servants could frame it as them relaying a request from one of the family members.
3. The killer is either in the room or just outside to observe the results and to shoot anyone that the poison failed to kill.

Wow, each of your post seems to raise questions instead of answers.
1. So now the killer is assuming that everybody in the house is sleeping when he fired a gun, especially after they just received a shocking letter from Beatrice with Kinzo seal that anybody even outside the family could receive the gold? Apparently despite Rudolf or maybe a few others feeling that their lives are threatened, they would all sleep peacefully that night? A few logic or two is missing here.
2. Did we watch the same anime? If we did then go back to the part where Rudolf was talking to his son and Kyrie. He clearly said "they will be up all night discussing about the matter". So, no, at least those 4 are awake at the killing time.
3. The killer just kill 6 people in one night without anybody else in the house aware of, mutilate their faces, and draw a beautifully designed demon circle? And apparently the killer did not have great preparation long before the murder. Again, a logic or two is missing here.
4. The killer just kill 6 people and performing all those rituals without mercy, and you expect the killer to have been living his/her entire life as law-abiding citizen. The killer apparently have been associating his entire life with peace-loving family and friends. He/she apparently never befriend dangerous people nor having shady connections to buy anything illegal. Profiling is greatly missing here.
5. Easily, huh? How? He's the cook btw. The tea and the likes are served by Kanon or Shanon. To just give him tea to serve the masters without him questioning the reasoning at all is way too unlikely. Except if he's a retard that is.

[Ithekro]

1. We can't even assume there was a gun used at this point since all we have are six bodies with there faces missing. A gun would make it earier, but the noise increases the chances of being caught. Also with the use of a gun there is generally both and entry and exit wound. In addition most guns that would be legally acquired in Japan for hunting would be powerful enough to put a hole in both the target and whatever is beyond the target...sometime several somethings beyond the target. Therefore one must keep the option that something else was used instead.

2. All six bodies arew found in one location. Either the killer(s) killed them someplace else and moved them to this location, or somehow managed to draw them there and then killed them. That demonic seal could be used as a lure to draw them in, as would the promise of the gold, though that does not follow through in all cases. The four parents were in the same room last we saw them, they would have had to have been dealt with at once, or when they were on there way to bed.

3. The method of the murder was either predetermined or someone put the demonic circle up for some other reason the previous night (it is October after all). The epitath and the letter show that the murders were probably planned well in advance by someone, or someones. However no plan survives contact with the enemy. Something could easily have gone wrong, and probably did. Six is the required dead...who the six are? Well either that was also planned, or someone doesn't really care as long as six people are dead.

4. It is easier to attempt murder with what is on hand rather than risk getting caught early for some other crime. While these people are rich, none of them (to our knowledge) have military training or contacts. None of them are assassins unless one or more of the staff is trained how to kill people. While we can assume they have shady deals and such, as far as we know, there are only 18 people on the island...so the list of suspects is only that long...less because six of them are dead.

5. He could easily be in on the murder and then killed to cover up who he's working for. If you suspect poison that is. He would not be poisoned however. Likely he'd be killed after helping to move the bodies so that they wouldn't have to move his big body out of the house.

6. Question: Of the 12 survivors, who has the motive and ability to pull this off?

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Wow, each of your post seems to raise questions instead of answers.
1. So now the killer is assuming that everybody in the house is sleeping when he fired a gun, especially after they just received a shocking letter from Beatrice with Kinzo seal that anybody even outside the family could receive the gold? Apparently despite Rudolf or maybe a few others feeling that their lives are threatened, they would all sleep peacefully that night? A few logic or two is missing here.

There would only be four people except the victims in the mansion -- Kinzo, who probably is beyond caring, Natsuhi, Eve, and Hideyoshi. Everyone else in the mansion dies that night. All the killer would need to know is that the guest quarters on the second floor are sufficiently far from the first floor dining hall where the murders happen.

2. Did we watch the same anime? If we did then go back to the part where Rudolf was talking to his son and Kyrie. He clearly said "they will be up all night discussing about the matter". So, no, at least those 4 are awake at the killing time.

Yeah, which is why I suspect they were poisoned. All 4 of them were presumably together at the time, and poison is the most likely way to kill them. In my theory, those four were already dead before any gunshot was fired (to kill Gohda, who saw the four people die of poisoning). The gun would have been prepared for just that possibility, and to finish off any of the four who for whatever reason hadn't had any tea.

5. Easily, huh? How? He's the cook btw. The tea and the likes are served by Kanon or Shanon. To just give him tea to serve the masters without him questioning the reasoning at all is way too unlikely. Except if he's a retard that is.

He was the only servant who was assigned the night shift in the mansion. Shannon and Kanon were on duty at the guest house (though Shannon leaves and goes to the mansion), and Genji and Kumasawa were off-duty and ordered to spend the night at the guest house. So if tea were ordered, it would have to be Gohda doing the serving. Even if another servant had gone to the mansion, it would be very bad form for Gohda, as the servant scheduled to be on duty, to not be the one who shows up when the masters want something.

Of course, if you really insist that Shannon would bring the tea, then you could simply exchange Shannon for Gohda and the logic works the same. She brings the tea (which unknown to her is poisoned), she sees people collapse and panics, killer shoots her to eliminate the loose end, and then kills Gohda later.

Both servants who were in the mansion died; the exact circumstances of which died where isn't critical to the theory. One dies because they witness the deaths of the four people in the dining hall, the other dies either because they saw something the killer didn't want them to see, or simply as random bad luck because the killer wanted six victims to match the epitaph.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

1. We can't even assume there was a gun used at this point since all we have are six bodies with there faces missing. A gun would make it earier, but the noise increases the chances of being caught. Also with the use of a gun there is generally both and entry and exit wound. In addition much guns that would be legally acquired in Japan for hunting would be powerful enough to put a hole in both the target and whatever is beyond the target...sometime several somethings beyond the target. Therefore one must keep the option that something else was used instead.

2. All six bodies arew found in one location. Either the killer(s) killed them someplace else and moved them to this location, or somehow managed to draw them there and then killed them. That demonic seal could be used as a lure to draw them in, as would the promise of the gold, though that does not follow through in all cases. The four parents were in the same room last we saw them, they would have had to have been dealt with at once, or when they were on there way to bed.

3. The method of the murder was either predetermined or someone put the demonic circle up for some other reason the previous night (it is October after all). The epitath and the letter show that the murders were probably planned well in advance by someone, or someones. However no plan survives contact with the enemy. Something could easily have gone wrong, and probably did. Six is the required dead...who the six are? Well either that was also planned, or someone doesn't really care as long as six people are dead.

4. It is easier to attempt murder with what is on hand rather than risk getting caught early for some other crime. While these people are rich, none of them (to our knowledge) have military training or contacts. None of them are assassins unless one or more of the staff is trained how to kill people. While we can assume they have shady deals and such, as far as we know, there are only 18 people on the island...so the list of suspects is only that long...less because six of them are dead.

5. He could easily be in on the murder and then killed to cover up who he's working for. If you suspect poison that is. He would not be poisoned however. Likely he'd be killed after helping to move the bodies so that they wouldn't have to move his big body out of the house.

6. Question: Of the 12 survivors, who has the motive and ability to pull this off?

1. Yup, gun ain't toy.
2. Someone already discuss the technique to this.
3. Yes, the killing is already planned out long before the murder. Nobody from the crowd seems to have seen the pattern before. The gate opening is also huge. Such a huge demon circle should draw attention to the shed. Unless the murderer made sure nobody ever approached the shed for days, someone would notice.
That means the murderer must make sure to have drawn the circle right during the killing time. Even though only Kanon who noticed that the sign was not there before rain, nobody refutes.
4. Buying illegal weapon is a crime only if: a. cops happen to catch you during transaction (highly unlikely when you're only buying one gun). b. Out of nowhere your house is raided by cops to discover the possession of a single illegal weapon (even more unlikely). c. Using it to kill people such as what happen that night.
Remember that the murders are very well planned, so the killer should be smart enough not to get caught possessing a single illegal weapon.
5. So someone would approach Gouda saying "hey lets kill 6 people tonight. We won't do anything to you. We would however share the 10 tonnes of gold evenly". Gouda would then believe it and go along with the plan. Um, I highly doubt it but it's entirely possible.
6. 10 tonnes of gold is still a good motif for me. I still don't see any problem with that aspect so far. Ability, since you're saying there is a cahoot, Nanjo will be a likely suspect since he can lie about each corpse's time of death.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

There would only be four people except the victims in the mansion -- Kinzo, who probably is beyond caring, Natsuhi, Eve, and Hideyoshi. Everyone else in the mansion dies that night. All the killer would need to know is that the guest quarters on the second floor are sufficiently far from the first floor dining hall where the murders happen.



Yeah, which is why I suspect they were poisoned. All 4 of them were presumably together at the time, and poison is the most likely way to kill them. In my theory, those four were already dead before any gunshot was fired (to kill Gohda, who saw the four people die of poisoning). The gun would have been prepared for just that possibility, and to finish off any of the four who for whatever reason hadn't had any tea.



He was the only servant who was assigned the night shift in the mansion. Shannon and Kanon were on duty at the guest house (though Shannon leaves and goes to the mansion), and Genji and Kumasawa were off-duty and ordered to spend the night at the guest house. So if tea were ordered, it would have to be Gohda doing the serving. Even if another servant had gone to the mansion, it would be very bad form for Gohda, as the servant scheduled to be on duty, to not be the one who shows up when the masters want something.

Of course, if you really insist that Shannon would bring the tea, then you could simply exchange Shannon for Gohda and the logic works the same. She brings the tea (which unknown to her is poisoned), she sees people collapse and panics, killer shoots her to eliminate the loose end, and then kills Gohda later.

Both servants who were in the mansion died; the exact circumstances of which died where isn't critical to the theory. One dies because they witness the deaths of the four people in the dining hall, the other dies either because they saw something the killer didn't want them to see, or simply as random bad luck because the killer wanted six victims to match the epitaph.

Eva and Hideyoshi were not shown to have been sleeping in the anime. You nor the killer cannot assume they are both sleeping peacefully at such a night to unlesh a gunfire without anybody noticing.

What do you mean by the logic works the same? Assuming Shanon or whoever bring the tea got shot, the gunshot would alert Gohda. Not to mention Shanon will scream on top of her f*cking lungs and cry for quite a while when she witness 4 people just died from poisoning. For Gohda or the remaining servant to just go out of the room out of curiosity without preparing, instead of hiding or locking themselves would only happen if they're retarded.

And again Gohda is not the servant. He's the cook. He won't do such a thing without questioning it. Genji or Chiyo's the one who will serve the tea if nobody is available.

[ferthepoet]

O.k to continue my last post here is how I'm seeing things right now

People I've totally ruled out:

Battler
George
Maria

People that could be accomplices but not the mastermind (were betrayed)

Ghoda
Shannon
Krauss

People who are too obvious suspects to be the real culprit

Eva
Natsuhi

People who I can´t rule out:

Genji
Kannon
Jessica
Kinzo
Kumazawa
Eva´s Husband
Kyrie
Nanjo

My top suspects right now:

Rudolf
Rosa

[Marion]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

And again Gohda is not the servant. He's the cook. He won't do such a thing without questioning it. Genji or Chiyo's the one who will serve the tea if nobody is available.

Actually, Gohda DOES serve tea on occasion :P He's the cook and that's his main responsibility, but other times he might do servant work. After all, the family doesn't always eat

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Eva and Hideyoshi were not shown to have been sleeping in the anime. You nor the killer cannot assume they are both sleeping peacefully at such a night to unlesh a gunfire without anybody noticing.

If their rooms are far enough away, so long as they were there it wouldn't matter. And of course, the killer could verify their location before beginning the scheme.

Not to mention Shanon will scream on top of her f*cking lungs and cry for quite a while when she witness 4 people just died from poisoning.

She won't scream louder than a gunshot; even a silenced gunshot is about as loud as a normal human scream.

And again Gohda is not the servant. He's the cook. He won't do such a thing without questioning it. Genji or Chiyo's the one who will serve the tea if nobody is available.

Gohda is still a servant, and he's the only one who is on duty that night in the mansion. Delivering tea or food if the master or guests request it is still part of his job as the night shift on that day; if he weren't expected to do that, Krauss would have put someone else on duty with him that night.

I agree it's a bit odd to keep your cook up all night in between two of the busiest cooking days of the year, but that's what Krauss did; whatever the reasoning, Gohda was assigned to serve the night shift that night.

[Christen]

Since it's being discussed, here's some info on Gohda that wasn't mentioned in the anime. Gohda is a show off. He won't hesitate serving tea to his guests on such a grand occasion as the family conference.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

If their rooms are far enough away, so long as they were there it wouldn't matter. And of course, the killer could verify their location before beginning the scheme.



She won't scream louder than a gunshot; even a silenced gunshot is about as loud as a normal human scream.



Gohda is still a servant, and he's the only one who is on duty that night in the mansion. Delivering tea or food if the master or guests request it is still part of his job as the night shift on that day; if he weren't expected to do that, Krauss would have put someone else on duty with him that night.

I agree it's a bit odd to keep your cook up all night in between two of the busiest cooking days of the year, but that's what Krauss did; whatever the reasoning, Gohda was assigned to serve the night shift that night.

Um, if you have been reading the forum, I think a poster "itekhro" just give a reasonable post about how the gun has to do instant kill to prevent anybody from screaming or running away. This would require rifle or shotgun that are quite loud. Loud enough to alert to alert an entire mansion.
Someone screaming is loud enough to alert the entire building. You make that mansion bigger than it is.
There is no way a normal human scream is as loud as a silenced gunshot. Not to mention that person will scream for help continuously for a period of time, to alert other people in the mansion. Besides what do you mean by "normal", a person would scream as loud as he/she can upon watching people being murdered. Your claims are becoming harder and harder to believe now.

[TheForsaken]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

I agree it's a bit odd to keep your cook up all night in between two of the busiest cooking days of the year, but that's what Krauss did; whatever the reasoning, Gohda was assigned to serve the night shift that night.

Gohda was hired by Krauss while all other servants were hired by Kinzou. Krauss thought that the letter was sent by Kinzou so he changed the schedule and chased "Kinzou's minions" to the guesthouse.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Loud enough to alert to alert an entire mansion.
Someone screaming is loud enough to alert the entire building. You make that mansion bigger than it is.

It's a pretty large mansion. Three floors, many bedrooms -- enough that all their guests and servants used to stay there before the guesthouse was built -- and multiple wings (as the VN mentions that there's a courtyard). And a scream doesn't carry all that far once you're talking about going through multiple walls. It might echo down a particular hallway but that's about it.

It's also safe to say that the mansion is well-built, which reduces sound conduction quite a lot. Thickness of walls plays a huge role in conduction, and expensive buildings tend to have thicker walls.

There is no way a normal human scream is as loud as a silenced gunshot.

They're quite close, both around 105-115 dB or so. The silenced gunshot is probably slightly louder, though it depends a lot on the caliber and type of ammo.

Besides what do you mean by "normal", a person would scream as loud as he/she can upon watching people being murdered. Your claims are becoming harder and harder to believe now.

Normal meaning that the person isn't some Olympic-level superhuman screamer. Obviously the person will scream as loud as they can, but not everyone is capable of the exact same volume of scream. So by normal volume, I mean the maximum volume that an average person is capable of screaming at.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Christen

Since it's being discussed, here's some info on Gohda that wasn't mentioned in the anime. Gohda is a show off. He won't hesitate serving tea to his guests on such a grand occasion as the family conference.

It should also be noted that he doesn't like Kanon or Shannon very much. He's a real prideful guy. Kanon, Shannon and Genji are the three highest ranked servants in the family (Genji being 1st, Shannon being 2nd and Kanon being 3rd) and Gohda doesn't like that, even though he has more experience, Shannon and Kanon are considered better than he is by the family in general because of their status as servants who can wear the crest. He basically thinks he should be allowed to wear it as well, since he was hired personally by the eldest son and his wife. Shannon doesn't seem to mind his flaunting, but Kanon pretty much hates him. Kanon also has a high disliking of Natsuhi and Eva.

[Ithekro]

As for screaming, while the volume might be similar to gunfire, it tends to he held out longer than the sharp report of a firearm.

On the other hand we do suffer from an acute lack on information at this point. As mentioned we only have knowledge of the discovery of the six bodies. There has yet to be any sort of investigation of anyplace else on the island as there has not been time in the anime yet...at least for use the viewers. We know there was a small back and forth before Battler, Jessica, and George arrived, at which point we get to see what is going on. We don't know what it looks like inside the Mansion yet, though there is no currect evidance of bloodshed from what little we see of the place before the murder is discovered. That is aside from Natsuhi's door, which may or may not be blood.

A different question. With or without a firearm, the murderer(s) need to be able to mess up (remove) the faces of the six victims. But what with? The damage is considerable with teeth being knocked out and probably heavy damage to the skull.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

It's a pretty large mansion. Three floors, many bedrooms -- enough that all their guests and servants used to stay there before the guesthouse was built -- and multiple wings (as the VN mentions that there's a courtyard). And a scream doesn't carry all that far once you're talking about going through multiple walls. It might echo down a particular hallway but that's about it.

It's also safe to say that the mansion is well-built, which reduces sound conduction quite a lot. Thickness of walls plays a huge role in conduction, and expensive buildings tend to have thicker walls.



They're quite close, both around 105-115 dB or so. The silenced gunshot is probably slightly louder, though it depends a lot on the caliber and type of ammo.



Normal meaning that the person isn't some Olympic-level superhuman screamer. Obviously the person will scream as loud as they can, but not everyone is capable of the exact same volume of scream. So by normal volume, I mean the maximum volume that an average person is capable of screaming at.

Did you just miss the first part of my post? As someone already mention, you need something like rifle or shotgun to kill someone with one shot. And this thing should be loud enough to warn an entire mansion. Yes, even if the mansion is that big. Besides, since the kids are all sleeping at the guest house, it might be enough for everyone to occupy the first and second floor.

Wow, so someone screaming is actually more 'silent' than silenced gunshot. Um, nobody would believe such a bold claim. Besides you forgot the part where the person will be constantly screaming and move around. And as already mentioned, you need a high caliber firearm to instantly kill someone in one shot which obviously make much louder noise.

And about killing with tea. Are you suppose to assume that all 4 of them will drink the tea at the same time. One or two might drink some at the same time and then die first, alerting the others. You can't kill all 4 of them by just serving poisonous tea.

[Christen]

Food for thought regarding gun sounds and noises. I think there is such a thing as selective hearing. A silenced gun is still loud, but the sound might be masked by ambient sounds. Of course I'm not claiming that it might have been masked by the rain, or occassional thunder, but if you look at it, a scream would be more noticeable than a muffled gunshot.

I'm not an expert at this, it's just an idea.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Did you just miss the first part of my post? As someone already mention, you need something like rifle or shotgun to kill someone with one shot.

Well, that's debatable -- there's a huge amount of variety in guns of all kinds. There's large-caliber handguns and small-caliber rifles too. Though for other reasons I believe it was probably a rifle or shotgun.

And this thing should be loud enough to warn an entire mansion. Yes, even if the mansion is that big.

There's a large variety of shotguns and rifles, and more importantly a large variety in ammo. They'd range anywhere from 130 to 170 dB, I picked 150 in my earlier analysis with shotguns/rifles in mind. High powered ammunition does push the volume up, but switching to subsonic ammunition on a rifle would lower the volume back down a bit. You lose range by going subsonic but it's not like they're likely to be sniping (which would be a whole different ballgame soundwise anyway).

Besides, since the kids are all sleeping at the guest house, it might be enough for everyone to occupy the first and second floor.

Kinzo's study is on the third and highest floor. I believe all the others are on the second because it's my understanding all the guest rooms (and possibly even Krauss/Natsuhi's room) are on the 2nd.

Wow, so someone screaming is actually more 'silent' than silenced gunshot. Um, nobody would believe such a bold claim.

It's true, though. Even the best silenced weapons are still quite loud -- 115 dB is a high-quality silencer on an average handgun, and that's slightly above the volume of your typical rock concert. Silencers are nothing at all like what video games and movies portray them as. They're actually more useful in that they make it harder to localize where the sound of the gunshot is coming from by messing with its acoustics.

A good silencer is about the same as having one relatively thin wall between you and the gun. So if you're in a cheap motel, and you shot a gun in your room, with a silencer it would sound about as if that same gun were fired in the adjacent room. If the gun were fired in the adjacent room, it would sound about as if it were two rooms away.

And about killing with tea. Are you suppose to assume that all 4 of them will drink the tea at the same time. One or two might drink some at the same time and then die first, alerting the others. You can't kill all 4 of them by just serving poisonous tea.

You could use a slower-acting poison. There's a veritable cornucopia of poisons out there, with time until death ranging anywhere from instant to as much as two weeks after ingestion. Even being limited to what could be easily obtained, it shouldn't be too hard to come up with something that would allow sufficient time (at least several minutes) for all to drink before any died.

And as mentioned, eliminating anyone who survived would be the other major reason to have the gun ready.

[Ithekro]

Just to put it out there, what about something slightly more exotic, and quieter than an a gun, like say a crossbow? I would say a bow and arrow, but those actually take a bit of skill and I'm not sure how good they are at punching through skulls at close range. Especially if the victim can see you getting the arrow ready. With a crossbow at least you could have it ready before aiming, or even entering the room.

Just a thought on how to solve a noise problem...if there is such a thing.

[Jan-Poo]

It would be a pain to remove the arrow, but then again that could explain why the faces where smashed...