North Korea Crisis

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Sumeragi, I get the feeling that you are talking about some far fetched fantasy exceeding even the German reunification that never happened in reality

Because there's a fundamental difference between the reunifications twenty years ago and present-day Korea: There is no illusion about reunification for the sake of reunification. If everything can be solved with DPRK as a surviving but friendly state, ROK will pursue that path. If it needs to establish a subsidiary state as a de facto colony (there is a reason why ROK actually appoints nominal governors of northern Korean provinces), it will do so. The point is, the honeymoon for a joyful reunification has been over for the past five years.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

In between, I hope north koreans don't launch any nukes or scuds or whatever crap they produced by starving their population like the south was doing for the first 30 years after their civil war on my head

..... What?

[ArchmageXin]

Basically, all of northern Korea will be like the Kaesong Industrial Region. That's the only way any reunified Korea will survive.

Now that would be interesting. You see, Kaesong work like this. NK get dollars for slave workers from SK, while paying a decent amount (By NK standards) in NK won to the 54K workers there.

It is really a currency abtriadge (sic-can't recall the right spelling atm). Right now, SK through this system can hire 4 NK workers for one Chinese worker.

If NK become one giant Kaesong, the currency advantage fades. Unless NK/SK will remain dual currencies, then that will encourage a flood of NKers heading for SK to seek better jobs. Which will depress the labor market and create...well, not racism, but regionism?

What a great plan!

Believe me, having researched this for my one of my university thesis makes me appreciate just how much hardness the north shall have to face because of the depth it is in right now.

So even you admit south/north will endure a harsh time when the re-unification happens. Which is identical to the rest of us "arm chair" theorist been proposing in the first place.

[AmeNoJaku]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Because there's a fundamental difference between the reunifications twenty years ago and present-day Korea: There is no illusion about reunification for the sake of reunification. If everything can be solved with DPRK as a surviving but friendly state, ROK will pursue that path. If it needs to establish a subsidiary state as a de facto colony (there is a reason why ROK actually appoints nominal governors of northern Korean provinces), it will do so. The point is, the honeymoon for a joyful reunification has been over for the past five years.

Reunification in that sense, like in Germany are fantasies used by populists to serve other agendas that their sponsors have

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

..... What?

Syngman Rhee

[Solace]

Conversations kinda been going in circles, hasn't it?

[Dr. Casey]

imo North Korea is to the north of South Korea.

[Ithekro]

Originally Posted by Dr. Casey

imo North Korea is to the north of South Korea.

That's way to deep, man.

[willx]

^ Agree. True or magnetic north?

In other news: Happy Birthday Kim-Il Sung?

http://www.news.com.au/world-news/is...-1226620547646

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by willx

In other news: Happy Birthday Kim-Il Sung?

Quoting Clint Eastwood about this little detail: Well I'll be thinkin' about that when I'm pissin' on his grave.

[ChainLegacy]

Originally Posted by Dr. Casey

imo North Korea is to the north of South Korea.

That's merely propaganda from the colonialist American puppet state.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Basically, all of northern Korea will be like the Kaesong Industrial Region. That's the only way any reunified Korea will survive.

But the Kaesong industrial region is just that. An industrial region. It doesn't exactly have anything to do with how an entire country should be managed politically or socially.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

ROK interests is basically the interests of northern Korea. Blunt, but everyone knows that only not swamping ROK like what happened with BRD would the reunified Korea be its own power.

I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. Impoverished North Koreans without healthcare in a post DPRK state aren't necessarily going to agree that ROK interests and theirs align. Especially when ROK policy is "wait until conditions improve". When they observe that there is a quality of life difference between North and South, they'll want something done about it as fast as possible, regardless of whether or not it fits into the ROK's timetable on when the North should reach certain levels of development.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Because there's a fundamental difference between the reunifications twenty years ago and present-day Korea: There is no illusion about reunification for the sake of reunification. If everything can be solved with DPRK as a surviving but friendly state, ROK will pursue that path. If it needs to establish a subsidiary state as a de facto colony (there is a reason why ROK actually appoints nominal governors of northern Korean provinces), it will do so. The point is, the honeymoon for a joyful reunification has been over for the past five years.

This is the main reason why even if the DPRK regime could be knocked out relatively bloodlessly, the ROK likely wouldn't want to do it. By far the most expedient measure is a politically independent, but non hostile, North Korea. Which as many have come to realize is not exactly feasible given the instability of the Pyongyang regime.


ROK appointed governors running the North is a short term solution, but it's hardly a long term one. While temporary fiat rule over a selected part of territory in extraordinary situations is pragmatic, it can be dangerous long term. Citizens living in the post DPRK region would nominally be Korean citizens, but they likely wouldn't be able to vote or have access to government subsidized healthcare. For all practical purposes, they'd be second class citizens. And it'd be dangerous for any nominally Korean nation to have a third of its population be second class citizens.

Whether its reunification or colonization, trying to manage a post North Korean state is going to be very difficult.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

But the Kaesong industrial region is just that. An industrial region. It doesn't exactly have anything to do with how an entire country should be managed politically or socially.

There are three reasons for the Kaesong Industrial Region:

1. Warming of relationships between the two countries.
2. Finding an alternative to PRC labor.
3. Testing the system which is planned to be used if DPRK falls.

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

When they observe that there is a quality of life difference between North and South, they'll want something done about it as fast as possible, regardless of whether or not it fits into the ROK's timetable on when the North should reach certain levels of development.

Three things:

1. DPRK citizens already know just how far they're behind. It's not like they're blind to things.
2. DPRK citizens already know that they will be second/third class citizens if they try to immediately integrate into ROK society. They know they would not be able to keep up with the harsh competition that ROK has on a daily basis, and that it's better they build things up in the north.
3. ROKA already has the authorization to stop any floods of refugees with force.

[ArchmageXin]

1. Warming of relationships between the two countries.
2. Finding an alternative to PRC labor.
3. Testing the system which is planned to be used if DPRK falls.

Failed on all three counts. Well, I will give you #2, but that would rapidly fade away once NKers realize they can get a better deal in China or SK (hence refugee wave)...and no one would stop them from doing it.

And finally, I believe SK actually subsidize Kaesong companies to the tune of 155 million/year, and for several years they lost money.

3. ROKA already has the authorization to stop any floods of refugees with force.

OH WOW

So essentially, what SK want is keep NK as a impoverished state that will become a cheap labor force for the south. A gulag for a entire nation. So if SK can shoot refugee waves, that mean China could do it too right?

In that case, we got a easy solution right there! China really should just support NK/SK absorption, and use Nkers who try to flee as machine gun targets.

Reality, please.

[Xellos-_^]

Sumeragi is under the impression that if SK would draw a line in the sand the wave and waves of NK refugee would not cross that line.

Failing that SK can machine gun and bomb any refugee trying to cross the border without repercussions form the international community.

[LeoXiao]

The idea of North Korean refugees= zombies on the attack is stupid

Unless the DPRK collapses with widespread violence, I don't see "massive hordes" of North Koreans trying to flee across the border, therefore the ROKA would not have anyone to gun down. If the DPRK collapses with extreme violence, most likely there would have already been an invasion and occupation by the south to address the trainwreck and any case of unwanted migration could be handled on a small scale. North Koreans would try to escape to China or the south in either case, but it's not like you're going to see large groups of people get together in big zombie-style packs to cross the borders.

If the regime but not the country collapses, there will be a surviving administrative infrastructure for the south to use for the purpose of "one country, two systems"-style reunification. North Koreans would still try to emigrate, and some would succeed, but again they would have no reason to become zombies and charge the borders. Especially since South Korea and other countries would most likely be providing food aid and whatnot to keep the northern population satisfied for the time being.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Sumeragi is under the impression that if SK would draw a line in the sand the wave and waves of NK refugee would not cross that line.

Failing that SK can machine gun and bomb any refugee trying to cross the border without repercussions form the international community.

^

Not even Israel can mow down a refugee wave for pure economic reasons. I am wondering what Sumeragi got on his/her University thesis....

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

^

Not even Israel can mow down a refugee wave for pure economic reasons. I am wondering what Sumeragi got on his/her University thesis....

How are the North Koreans going to assemble into a "refugee wave"? This isn't Berlin where a mob can easily form and walk a few blocks to get into the next country. Most Koreans don't own any form of transportation besides their feet, and most of them live in cities far from the borders. Unless there's a protracted war you're not going to see entire cities pack up and leave.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

How are the North Koreans going to assemble into a "refugee wave"? This isn't Berlin where a mob can easily form and walk a few blocks to get into the next country. Most Koreans don't own any form of transportation besides their feet, and most of them live in cities far from the borders. Unless there's a protracted war you're not going to see entire cities pack up and leave.

We aren't exactly talking about walking across the width of U.S. The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is like....120 miles. It is a distance on foot, but not a impossible one.

Also, if refugee waves wouldn't be a problem, then why is both SK, China, US all sleep fitfully on the idea of a Nk implosion?

Are you telling me the government of South Korea AND China are a band of chicken little?

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

How are the North Koreans going to assemble into a "refugee wave"? This isn't Berlin where a mob can easily form and walk a few blocks to get into the next country. Most Koreans don't own any form of transportation besides their feet, and most of them live in cities far from the borders. Unless there's a protracted war you're not going to see entire cities pack up and leave.

You would be really surprise at how many miles people can walk when they are use to walking.

The entire NK pop doesn't need to leave to create a human wave. Just 5-10% will be more then enough to create problems for SK.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

We aren't exactly talking about walking across the width of U.S. The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is like....120 miles. It is a distance on foot, but not a impossible one.

For people carrying stuff with them, it would take about 4-6 days at best. If society hasn't collapsed, not many people will even want to get into large groups and leave. If society has collapsed, it probably means the ROKA is inside North Korea and getting ready to occupy it already to keep the mess from getting worse. Along with it will surely be huge amounts of aid to discourage the most desperate of the potential refugees from leaving immediately. Not to mention many avenues of escape might be battlefields and thus hard to get through.

Also, if refugee waves wouldn't be a problem, then why is both SK, China, US all sleep fitfully on the idea of a Nk implosion?

For China, maybe. But even for them it would be a relatively simple matter for the PLA to march across the Yalu and clean up any remaining KPA resistance, bring aid, and disperse it among the local population to satiate them, thus preventing the bulk of potential emigration.

Are you telling me the government of South Korea AND China are a band of chicken little?

Yes. Governments don't like to have to do extra work or deal with new problems even if they are fully capable of handling them.

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

You would be really surprise at how many miles people can walk when they are use to walking.

The entire NK pop doesn't need to leave to create a human wave. Just 5-10% will be more then enough to create problems for SK.

Did. Not. Read. My. Post.

Try again.

[ArchmageXin]

Yes. Governments don't like to have to do extra work or deal with new problems even if they are fully capable of handling them.

Can they do it? Possible, will they want to do it? Difficult to say. We are talking about asking South Korean Government to suddenly double it is capacity and resource expenditure. You can't do it on a drop of a hat.

And if NK collapses, I doubt it will be the Berlin wall scenario, it will likely to be violent.

Along with it will surely be huge amounts of aid to discourage the most desperate of the potential refugees from leaving immediately.

1) Are those aids even ready? As I recall, SK tried to setup a tax fund to prepare for a collapse, and it was killed in parliament.

2) Allow me to present: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%...archy_of_needs
Even if food is ready, people would want other things. As Sumeragi said, NK people know how backwards they are to SK, so they once food/water is taken care of, they would go to SK looking for...Korean dramas to watch if nothing else. They would want to be wealthy and prosper, and the easiest way is cross over the border.