Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 (Japan)

[MartianMage]

You know... it's not like voters are limited to supporting only 1 character.

Let's say I am a voter and I typically vote for characters a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h. So what happens when a and b eventually clash? I pick the one I like more which results to a decrease of the number of votes of the character I like less. Of course this process repeats itself over on all the character I am voting for.

Now it's not far fetched to say that there are a lot of voters like that... so yeah there goes all the mori summer votes.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Subayai

Tomoka gets the highest vote percentage this year: 64.64%. Wow!

Helps to have a weak opponent, and only one of them. Remember, up until recently it's been all 3-girl matches.

Originally Posted by Coldlight

As the last hope for Chuu2Koi following Shinka's sudden exit yesterday, I fully expect Rikka to give Kyouko a good run for her money here; the remaining Chuunibyou supporters should be going all in for Rikka now.

Actually, Chuuni is guaranteed at least one repechage slot no matter what.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Well, there is a simple possibility. Maybe some voters who voted for Shinka in the second round like Azusa more than her. It could be a case where a significant number of voters have both Shinka and Azusa in their Top 5, or something like that, but Azusa is higher up for them, so Shinka bleeds support going up against Azusa.

Simplest explanation: Neither Ika nor Shinka were ever considered major players; their high vote totals in round 2 were simply a result of carryover from the match of death being on the same day, giving us an illusion that they were stronger than they were.

[KanbeKotori]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

For that one sorry again since I just woke up when I wrote that and of course I had a brain fart and forgot about the Matsumis going their all. Yeah I also do think Saki has a smaller chance than Madoka when it comes to winning. To be honest I don't think any strong faction in here should be downplayed at all, hell even the one woman armies in here.

Probably so since with the small vote totals, anything can happen.

Originally Posted by D-Joe

Well Miho's first round opponents were not really strong

True but they weren't confident that the other GuP girls can do well enough to qualify. This is not the same with Saki, who have girls that can breeze through most matches.

Originally Posted by Coldlight

So you finally realize and admit you're not neutral. Kudos to that. I'm not the one being blind here or the only one who pointed out that "neutral" thing about your sig.

Well, still I am okay with others winning so the neutral is still valid in my sig.

Originally Posted by Coldlight

When and where did I say you were NBS? Just because I said you supported the Saki faction didn't mean you're NBS. Supporting a faction is still different from supporting only that faction. Please don't put words in my mouth. For example, I may be a supporter of the MadoMagi faction, but that doesn't mean I'm NBM. I still have other girls who I'd be fine to see win it all.

Then why are you saying I'm shooting everyone that is not supporting Saki? You make it seem like I'm an extremist, which is very close to being NBS.




Arata lost, Saki is going down already, there's nothing left to see other than Arata being sniped hard. You don't just sacrifice your tier 1 girls and expect any lower tier to win it. It just isn't enough. I hope it's clear for all to see, especially those that STILL thinks that Saki isn't giving their all yet.

My votes for yesterday's match

<<小豆梓＠変態王子と笑わない猫。>>
<<鷺森灼＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

My votes for today's match(I missed posting for a day hence the late reply and not posting of votes)

<<小鳥遊六花＠中二病でも恋がしたい!>>
<<清水谷竜華＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

[Team Rocket Elite]

Matches: E3-1 F3-2

At this level, the winner bettwen Kobato and Sakurako will probably be one of the weaker characters in Round 4. While she did beat Dekomori, I don't have much faith in Sakurako. Kobato being about as strong as Uiharu should give her the win. Nodoka has consistently shown to be quite powerful. I wouldn't say Maho can't win but I wouldn't count on it even if Ro-kyu-bu has looked good lately.

Votes:
Hasegawa Kobato
Misawa Maho

Predictions:
Hasegawa Kobato
Haramura Nodoka

[Subayai]

Results for Round 3 Day 4

C3-2
1st 429 Kyouko Sakura @ Puella Magi Madoka Magica
2nd 298 Rikka Takanashi @ Chuunibyou Demo Koi Ga Shitai!

D3-1
1st 419 Ryuuka Shimizudani @ Saki
2nd 220 Saki Miyanaga @ Saki
=============================================

There goes Chuu2koi's last hope. So sad.

Curiously, the number of votes lost by Rikka between rounds 2 and 3 is about the same as Shinka (about 80 votes). I don't know if this means something or not.

[Coldlight]

Well, that was much less of a fight than I expected from Rikka... but at least either she or Shinka will live on through repechage regardless of who wins Block C.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Actually, Chuuni is guaranteed at least one repechage slot no matter what.

Right, I keep forgetting about the mechanics of repechage... Thanks for the reminder.

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Well, still I am okay with others winning so the neutral is still valid in my sig.

Nope. "neutral but leaning"? That is practically a contradiction right there. Maybe "Leaning towards ABM but not NBS" is a better way to put it. Drop the neutral act.

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Then why are you saying I'm shooting everyone that is not supporting Saki?

But you did make a sweeping generalization against everyone. You yourself admitted misusing "absolute statements" and later backpedaling on it. See:

This date all the way back when I said MadoMagi is a threat and everyone was like "NO, SAKI IS THE ONLY THREAT BLAH BLAH" and went on to give a zillion excuses.

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

You make it seem like I'm an extremist, which is very close to being NBS.

Making it seem like you're an extremist? Now where did that come from? Please provide me with a specific quote so I know you're not blowing my statements out of proportion or attempting to use a straw man argument on me.

Just because I said you're not neutral or called you a supporter of the Saki faction doesn't mean you're an extremist either. People have their own biases to varying degrees. Having some biases is not the same as being extremist. I don't know how you define 'extremist' but this isn't black or white, 1 or 0 where the only kinds of fans/voters are either neutral or extremist. That kind of narrow thinking is just a gross oversimplification of things.

Aren't you the one assuming and exaggerating things here?

[ion475]

It seems like Chu2Koi faction, if it ever exist, basically go asleep. Rikka didn't even put up half a fight against Kyouko.

On the other side, Ryuuka win and I'm happy. Mokkan should win Group D as is.

Onto E & F:
E3-1: Pick/Predict: Kobato. With Rikka and Mori-sama pulling off disappearance act, Sakurako's win against Dekomori looks a lot less impressive. Should be an easy one for Kobato.
F3-2: Pick: AhoMaho, Predict: Nodocchi. Nodoka simply looks stronger, coming off a win against Biribiri. And also expect Raildex faction to go behind Nodoka (although, yeah, Akarin would be someone that Raildex faction rally behind even more...)

[hinakatbklyn]

- Depending on which Chuu2 rep advances through repchange (Nibutani advances through Azuki or Rikka advances through Kyouko) their best chance to go far in the tournament is not to draw any PMMM opponents. Who knows if the top 16 is going to be any different, but just based on the 2nd and 3rd rounds results, every challenger looking to advance far in the tournament wants to avoid all PMMM reps. Kyouko didn't pass 600 votes, but getting a convincing win against Rikka still makes her a dangerous opponent.

- Saki voters decided on letting Ryuuka advance to repchange (or top 16)

(E) Will Nodoka try to help Shizuno advance through this group (even if Shizuno's chances of advancing are not guaranteed yet). Between Kobato and Sakurako, Kobato appears to be the stronger opponent between the two, so she might be a candidate to snipe. But Sakurako can't be underestimated either since she won against Dekomori (Chuu2) and there are still some active and repchange potential YuruYuri reps in the tournament. Supporting: Kobato

(F) Nodoka already has Yuno and Railgun supporting her to win today's match and win group F. Even if Maho doesn't win, she would add to Nodoka's chances of winning the group and bringing some strong challengers back. However, a win today ensures that they don't have to rely on any other challengers help to advance. Supporting: Maho

[BloodyKitty]

MadoMagi faction continues to prove that they are a scary bunch.

Happy to see Ryuuka advance though.

Things doesn't seem to look good for my Watashi next round. After all her opponents have not been very strong, while Nodoka battled some more difficult ones who can add to her strength at the Block Final. Nodoka might very well win Block F.

[Triple_R]

For me, Chuunibyou totally choking in the 3rd Round is the biggest surprise of the tournament thus far. Rather fittingly, it really does seem like their strength was just a delusion after all.

Congrats to Kyouko! Sad to see Saki Miyanaga finally fall to the odds stacked against her, but it probably doesn't matter much anyway since Tomoka is taking Group D.

Madoka Magica now has two girls in Block finals, and a third as the presumptive favorite in Block H. Barring a complete disaster, they should take at least one block, and possibly as many as 3.

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

Things doesn't seem to look good for my Watashi next round. After all her opponents have not been very strong, while Nodoka battled some more difficult ones who can add to her strength at the Block Final. Nodoka might very well win Block F.

As a two-time former semi-finalist, Nodoka is probably one of Saki's two best remaining hopes. Nodoka is also the only Saki girl that I now consider a (slight) favorite to win a Block.

The Saki faction has to really rally behind Toki and Nodoka now.

[uis]

Saki never strong enough to win and there are tons of Ryuuka fan after special episodes. Kyouko won is expected and i never consider chuuni fanbase strong and they going in round 3 with popularity.

Looking now they solve the problem about chinese voters and the votes drop again.

[Subayai]

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

MadoMagi faction continues to prove that they are a scary bunch.

Happy to see Ryuuka advance though.

Things doesn't seem to look good for my Watashi next round. After all her opponents have not been very strong, while Nodoka battled some more difficult ones who can add to her strength at the Block Final. Nodoka might very well win Block F.

Block F final will be on the same day as Block H final. If Watashi, Nodoka and Sayaka all make it to their respective block finals, I have a feeling that Sayaka's fans will support Watashi more than Nodoka. Of course, we have not seen Sayaka do anything impressive yet, so this may not be enough.

As you say, the MadoMagi faction are a scary bunch but they can be helpful sometimes. As a fan of Nishizumi-dono, I should know.

Originally Posted by uis

Looking now they solve the problem about chinese voters and the votes drop again.

Remember that today's match started very late so there was no initial rush. And the number of votes wasn't that low anyway, today we had 6th highest participation of this year's tournament.

[BloodyKitty]

Originally Posted by Subayai

As you say, the MadoMagi faction are a scary bunch but they can be helpful sometimes. As a fan of Nishizumi-dono, I should know.

I'm Nishizumi-dono's fan too, I know what you mean really well

[hinakatbklyn]

Hmmm.....
- Group F and Group H finals on the same day
- Nodoka and Sayaka on the same day
- Nodoka wins group F, Mikoto (Railgun) advances to repchange
- Nodoka doesn't have to win the group to advance to repchange, only win today's match.

....... I'm almost certain now Sayaka will support Watashi to ensure Railgun doesn't advance to repchange.

[Ichuki]

Prediction- Sakurako, Nodoka
Picks- Sakurako, Maho

[Aya Reiko]

If Azusa wins...
Sakura, Shinka, Niko Yazawa, & Shinobu gets another chance
If Sakura wins...
Azusa, Rikka, Mihoko, & Aoi Futuba gets another chance
If Ryuuka wins...
Tomoka, Saki, Komari Kamikita, & Tamao Kurei gets another chance
If Tomoka wins...
Ryuuka, Arata Sagimori, Kyouko Toshinou, & Awai Oohoshi gets another chance

Spoiler for The Big Board:

Guesses...
Plains and Mountains
(Sakurako & Nodocchi)

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by uis

Looking now they solve the problem about chinese voters and the votes drop again.

That might explain a lot regarding Chuu2's mysterious loss in strength...

Rikka downed, Ryuuka through... now picks and predictions 11/16 and 8/16. Zzz.

Ryuuka might actually put up a good fight against Tomoka.

Anyway, picks for today:

Picks: Kobato, Maho.
Predictions: Kobato, Nodoka.

(inb4 Saki snipes MadoMagi girls and vice versa)

EDIT: New suggested strategy for Saki. Stuff the revival rounds with Saki girls so they'll fill up all the repechage places... Maybe not all, since there's Madoka, but then again it's not impossible for Saki to snipe Ayase through Miho... but then there'll be Ayase to deal with. Ah well, most of the repechage places then.

[uis]

Originally Posted by Subayai

Remember that today's match started very late so there was no initial rush. And the number of votes wasn't that low anyway, today we had 6th highest participation of this year's tournament.

That true too. Chinese spam is annoying but we spam 2ch in the past too with the rush.

[TnAdct1]

Originally Posted by hinakatbklyn

- Depending on which Chuu2 rep advances through repchange (Nibutani advances through Azuki or Rikka advances through Kyouko) their best chance to go far in the tournament is not to draw any PMMM opponents. Who knows if the top 16 is going to be any different, but just based on the 2nd and 3rd rounds results, every challenger looking to advance far in the tournament wants to avoid all PMMM reps. Kyouko didn't pass 600 votes, but getting a convincing win against Rikka still makes her a dangerous opponent. to rely on any other challengers help to advance.

Of course, the best away to avoid a possible showdown against a Madoka character in the repchange is through the following three steps:

1. Have Mami and Kyouko win their matches (as that would guarantee them a spot in the final sixteen);

2. Vote for Miho in the Miho/Ayase match (as an Ayase loss will officially mean that Madoka is out of the tournament);

3. Wait and see in terms of Sayaka (more likely, it's going to be "let her win Block H").

[Team Rocket Elite]

A Puella Magi shows off her strength once again. Like Shinka before her, Rikka got completely wrecked by Kyuoko. Dekomori got upset as well last round which makes me think Chuunibyou might have been a bit overrated across the board. I guess I was being too pessimistic with Ryuuka. She does beat Saki and does it pretty easily. Hopefully she'll have a good match with Tomoka next round.