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Old 2013-01-26, 08:01   Link #31761
GreyZone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder Book View Post
Has Ryu07 ever alluded or alluded to the Ikuko=Yasu theory before? I wonder if its just a completely unintentional thing that people are coming up, or if Ryu07 believed that people would theorize this when writing Episode 8.

He seemed to have wanted people to talk about Umineko for a long time, so...
Well there are some similarities between them:

-Both originate from a "rich family"
-Both are authors that feel too embarrassed to show their stories to others directly (only later this changes for Ikuko)
-Both are good at creating an intended effect on others by changing their outward appearance (Yasu's "crossdressing" and Ikuko appearing as if she wouldn't age)


Also I don't understand how people seem to be so fixed on the YasuIkuko=Evil and RandomIkuko=Grey. How do you get such an idea? The reasons for RandomIkuko=Grey seem very weak. "Curiosity"? Well, sorry Bern but curiosity killed the cat.

That aside I agree with jjblue1 about us not being able to judge anyone because we have no idea what happened on Rokkenjima.
For all we know Eva could have caused Battler's "brain damage" by shooting him, by injuring him badly using her CQC, or by her becoming "psycho" and traumatizing Battler with words.. In this case it would be understandable why YasuIkuko does not want Battler to go "back to his family". Of course it is also possible that YasuIkuko did not know everything that happened herself (she could not be everywhere at the same time), so by making Tohya remember his part of the incident she would gain a better understanding of what happened on Rokkenjima. This would make her "just as bad as Ange", or perhaps the "Ange" of EP8 was actually YasuIkuko? Well who knows...

Lots of speculation from everyone
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Old 2013-01-26, 08:21   Link #31762
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
False. Featherine's behavior in EP6 ???? and onward is motivated entirely by her wanting to see the truth of what really happened.
Hm, I guess that is how it's portrayed, at least in that ????.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
I'm interested in this Will!Touya idea, but for the sake of argument I'd point out that Will is deliberately drawn as distinct from Battler in Clair's eyes in that "Battler was too late; it doesn't matter who it is, though, as long as someone understands her."
Touya isn't Battler, so there's nothing strange about it.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Apparently, Battler learning the truth is not sufficient because he did that after Beatrice died (already mirroring Touya's understanding).
I'm not sure exactly what you're getting at. Is it that it's weird that Will was "in time" even though Battler wasn't?

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Toya's not being pinched in the ass, afterall
Of course he is. It happens all the time at his badminton club.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder Book View Post
Has Ryu07 ever alluded or alluded to the Ikuko=Yasu theory before? I wonder if its just a completely unintentional thing that people are coming up, or if Ryu07 believed that people would theorize this when writing Episode 8.

He seemed to have wanted people to talk about Umineko for a long time, so...
I don't know of any time he referred to it in an interview or anything, but that doesn't mean much. He hardly even confirms ShKanon outside the game. I've seen Ikuko=Yasu theories on Japanese sites, though.

But if nothing else, the number-pun between Ikuko and Yasu had to be intentional on Ryukishi's part, so I really doubt that he would be surprised at the existence of Ikuko=Yasu theories. I don't mean to say that the number-pun absolutely means that Ikuko=Yasu, though, since there are a few explanations for it that don't involve them being the same person. Still, unless it's just a lolredherring, some kind of connection is there.

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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
Also I don't understand how people seem to be so fixed on the YasuIkuko=Evil and RandomIkuko=Grey. How do you get such an idea?
Completely agree. I don't get it either.
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Old 2013-01-26, 10:19   Link #31763
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Touya isn't Battler, so there's nothing strange about it.
An interesting thing about Will and Battler is also they shouldn't appear together or so it was said in a tip.

It reminds me of ShKanontrice and Lion where Lion shouldn't exist in a world where there's ShKanontrice.

So my usual interpretation is that Will is the detective's alterego of Tohya... however, had Battler never turned into Tohya Will could end up being never created...
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Old 2013-01-26, 15:32   Link #31764
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Note that Will and Battler do in fact meet at the party in ep8:
Quote:
bfly1 0
bg Mhal_1aN,22
ld c,WIL_nayamuA1,23
`"Willard's the name.`@` I'm just a passing stranger who got caught up in a game you know nothing about."`\

ld l,DlA_defA2,23
`"He is an Inquisitor of Heresy of the Great Court, like MYSELF.`@` A truly great one, though he is now RETIRED."`@

ld r,BUT_FutekiA5,24
`"I see. If you're Dlanor's friend, you can't be anyone bad.`@` Please, make yourself at home."`\
Although this is one of the only times they're ever displayed on the same screen at the same time. But they act as if they do not know each other on at least the meta-level.
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Old 2013-01-26, 16:21   Link #31765
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Also I don't understand how people seem to be so fixed on the YasuIkuko=Evil and RandomIkuko=Grey. How do you get such an idea? The reasons for RandomIkuko=Grey seem very weak. "Curiosity"? Well, sorry Bern but curiosity killed the cat.
Because if Ikuko is Yasu then she's fucking with an amnesiac person to uncover memories she herself already has, and he's not even the person she wants him to be. She's basically taking a third person and forcing them to adopt the selfhood of this stranger she used to like.

Meanwhile Ikuko as a random bystander is basically trying to help an amnesiac person she found, and her harm done to him is pretty much entirely unintentional because she has no clue what he's at risk of remembering.

Yasu!Ikuko has a nasty ulterior motive based around lying to, manipulating, and essentially brainwashing him. Random!Ikuko has no ulterior motive by definition.

Quote:
Touya isn't Battler, so there's nothing strange about it.
Except he has his memories by the time the first six episodes are written.

Quote:
I'm not sure exactly what you're getting at. Is it that it's weird that Will was "in time" even though Battler wasn't?
The metaphor here is that by the time Toya could possibly remember, Yasu is dead in every meaningful way. But to someone like Will reading things for the first time, Yasu is 'alive' until he finishes reading. Will figured it out 'in time'.

Quote:
Of course he is. It happens all the time at his badminton club.
You can totally get your ass pinched and play badminton in a wheelchair.

Quote:
But if nothing else, the number-pun between Ikuko and Yasu had to be intentional on Ryukishi's part, so I really doubt that he would be surprised at the existence of Ikuko=Yasu theories. I don't mean to say that the number-pun absolutely means that Ikuko=Yasu, though, since there are a few explanations for it that don't involve them being the same person. Still, unless it's just a lolredherring, some kind of connection is there.

But if nothing else, the number-pun between Ikuko and Asumu had to be intentional on Ryukishi's part, so I really doubt that he would be surprised at the existence of Ikuko=Asumu theories. I don't mean to say that the number-pun absolutely means that Ikuko=Asumu, though, since there are a few explanations for it that don't involve them being the same person. Still, unless it's just a lolredherring, some kind of connection is there.

Quote:
An interesting thing about Will and Battler is also they shouldn't appear together or so it was said in a tip.
Context is important. In the TIP you're referring to, 'Will and Battler shouldn't appear together' because one overshadows the other. Either Will is the significantly more competent detective or Battler is the God Mode with all the answers. They're separated to maintain dramatic tension, not to hint at their true natures.

Also Williard killed like a thousand witches and is a former Inquisitor of Heresy. How does this convert to Toya?
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Old 2013-01-26, 19:03   Link #31766
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Except he has his memories by the time the first six episodes are written.
Yeah, but not of Rokkenjima, 1986. Unless he lied to Yukari about not being able to remember, which is also quite possible.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
But if nothing else, the number-pun between Ikuko and Asumu had to be intentional on Ryukishi's part...
I get your sarcasm, but I don't get your point. As far as my Japanese knowledge goes, there's nothing even close to a number-pun that could be made to link Asumu to Ikuko.
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Old 2013-01-26, 19:34   Link #31767
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Note that Will and Battler do in fact meet at the party in ep8:

Although this is one of the only times they're ever displayed on the same screen at the same time. But they act as if they do not know each other on at least the meta-level.
Yes and the same applies for Beato and Lion.
And Kinzo who should be dead. And Ange who shouldn't be there. And also there are two gameboards open at the same time... and everything is rather messy...
Ep 8 seems a rather special episode, similar to Ep 7 that crammed together two universes so that in Lion's words people would tell fact that happened in a world where Lion didn't exist.

Of course, as we don't know why Will and Battler shouldn't show up together (and I can't find anymore the point in which it was said... -_-), it's entirely possible for everyone to come up with a different theory.
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Old 2013-01-26, 20:21   Link #31768
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Because if Ikuko is Yasu then she's fucking with an amnesiac person to uncover memories she herself already has, and he's not even the person she wants him to be. She's basically taking a third person and forcing them to adopt the selfhood of this stranger she used to like.
You know that from..... where? The forgeries? Or did you perhaps get a glimpse of RokkenjimaPrime?

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Meanwhile Ikuko as a random bystander is basically trying to help an amnesiac person she found, and her harm done to him is pretty much entirely unintentional because she has no clue what he's at risk of remembering.

Yasu!Ikuko has a nasty ulterior motive based around lying to, manipulating, and essentially brainwashing him. Random!Ikuko has no ulterior motive by definition.
Again, you base that from your knowledge about the forgeries.

I show you what you essentially do: Let's assume Eva went Psycho and killed everyone:



If Ikuko is a random stranger then she's fucking with an amnesiac person to selfishly compensate for her loneliness and inferiority complex, by having him as her private "talk-buddy-slave" and then she realizes that she can use him to make money and start a great novelist career by using his knowledge from the Rokkenjima incident that he feels uncomfortable about! She's basically taking a traumatized survivor from Rokkenjima and forces memories out of him that cleary hurt him to remember, just so she can have a great and successful career!

Meanwhile Ikuko as Yasu is taking care of him and even though overchallenged with this task, trying her best, and her harm done to him is pretty much entirely unintentional because she was convinced that he was hurting because he did only partially remember and because of that tried to made him remember so he can fully remember and "close that case and move on".

Random!Ikuko has a nasty ulterior motive based around abducting a random defenseless person, manipulating him, making him her fulltime roommate (and possibly her "boyfried") and essentially just using him as a cash cow. Yasu!Ikuko has no ulterior motive because she was just protecting him from Eva.
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Old 2013-01-26, 20:36   Link #31769
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Ikuko was in fact that one who hit him, no matter how many times she says she didn't. This is because Ikuko=Yasu and Tohya=Will His nerves haven't been absoutely and completely gone, and it causes a stinging sensation in his butt. So when Lion pinches Will's butt, it's really a symbol for the feeling that may or may not be returning to Tohya's legs.

GreyZone, your theory only works in that instance, but what if it wasn't Eva who killed everyone? What if Yasu had let the bomb explode as she planned and written about in her bottles? Now what is she doing with Tohya?

Quote:
Also Williard killed like a thousand witches and is a former Inquisitor of Heresy
This goes back to genious Battler theory. How well read is he supposed to be, especially in the mystery genre? What happens if you rip out the confession out of "And then there was none"? UN Owen becomes a 400 year old witch, according to Yasu. Battler was supposed to be well read and really good at solving mystery novels. All those witches that he killed, or rather books that he finished.
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Old 2013-01-26, 20:36   Link #31770
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
You know that from..... where? The forgeries? Or did you perhaps get a glimpse of RokkenjimaPrime?



Again, you base that from your knowledge about the forgeries.

I show you what you essentially do: Let's assume Eva went Psycho and killed everyone:



If Ikuko is a random stranger then she's fucking with an amnesiac person to selfishly compensate for her loneliness and inferiority complex, by having him as her private "talk-buddy-slave" and then she realizes that she can use him to make money and start a great novelist career by using his knowledge from the Rokkenjima incident that he feels uncomfortable about! She's basically taking a traumatized survivor from Rokkenjima and forces memories out of him that cleary hurt him to remember, just so she can have a great and successful career!

Meanwhile Ikuko as Yasu is taking care of him and even though overchallenged with this task, trying her best, and her harm done to him is pretty much entirely unintentional because she was convinced that he was hurting because he did only partially remember and because of that tried to made him remember so he can fully remember and "close that case and move on".

Random!Ikuko has a nasty ulterior motive based around abducting a random defenseless person, manipulating him, making him her fulltime roommate (and possibly her "boyfried") and essentially just using him as a cash cow. Yasu!Ikuko has no ulterior motive because she was just protecting him from Eva.
You are pretty wrong here. If Eva went psycho and Ikuko is Yasu then she's even worse of a person in this scenario. Because she's now willingly letting a deranged murderer take care of a small child.

The first thing you'd do would be to try to get some form of justice so that she doesn't harm Ange. Not take up a different life, seclude yourself and then pick up an amnesiac Battler to do whatever she wanted to do with him. See it all comes back to her being slightly/fully insane.
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Old 2013-01-26, 20:44   Link #31771
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
You are pretty wrong here. If Eva went psycho and Ikuko is Yasu then she's even worse of a person in this scenario. Because she's now willingly letting a deranged murderer take care of a small child.

The first thing you'd do would be to try to get some form of justice so that she doesn't harm Ange. Not take up a different life, seclude yourself and then pick up an amnesiac Battler to do whatever she wanted to do with him. See it all comes back to her being slightly/fully insane.
Ahh don't worry about that. If I take enough time I can work out a perfect solid solution to prove my theories by inserting even more assumptions. I think a fitting revision would be:

YasuIkuko was not aware that Eva killed everyone, so she made him remember to clear Eva's name if she is innocent, or get Ange into safety after confirming Eva's guilt. But Eva died before Battler fully remembered, or he didn't remember that aspect at all.

And as I said. Given enough time and assumptions I can go on like this. Blue truths are unlimited after all.
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Old 2013-01-26, 20:55   Link #31772
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Ahh don't worry about that.
I think this what RK07 thought every time a reader tripped on one of his plot holes.
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Old 2013-01-26, 21:46   Link #31773
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You are pretty wrong here. If Eva went psycho and Ikuko is Yasu then she's even worse of a person in this scenario. Because she's now willingly letting a deranged murderer take care of a small child.

The first thing you'd do would be to try to get some form of justice so that she doesn't harm Ange. Not take up a different life, seclude yourself and then pick up an amnesiac Battler to do whatever she wanted to do with him. See it all comes back to her being slightly/fully insane.
If we go for this what if scenario I think Yasu should have proofs to accuse Eva and be believed. What if it's just her words against Eva's? (Battler in the beginning had no memory so she can't count on him to confirm her version)

They both would have a motive for killing everyone, the ineritance as they're both Kinzo's kids... however while Eva might be suspicious due to her economical problems she's Kinzo's legittimate child, loving aunt, wife and mother to some victims.
Yasu would be the illegittimate child born from incest who was first placed in a orphanage and then used as a servant by the Ushiromiya, who was an accomplice in hiding Kinzo's death and that got his money in 'illegittimate' ways.
Even if she tries to hide some things (and we don't know if this is possible as Eva might know them... everything depends on what had happened on Rokkenjima), let's face it, I would think it's more unlikely that Eva is the culprit than Yasu.

So yes, if she believes Eva is the culprit she shouldn't let Ange in her care... but if she can't prove Eva is the culprit... how many chances there are she would be believed? And would she be willing to risk everything for a chance to save Ange?

But the real problem is I think we're making assumptions based only on many theories.

Assuming Yasu is Ikuko:

Does Yasu know what happened in Rokkenjima or not?
Does she believe to know when in truth it was a misunderstanding (example: she saw Eva shooting at Kyrie but didn't know it was in self defence)?
Does Yasu believe Eva is the culprit or not?
Is Yasu taking care of Battler with Eva's approvation or not?
Did Yasu realize remembering might be too painful for Battler or not?
Did Yasu force him to remember or not?
If she did, was it because she thought it would be better for him or for herself?
Did Yasu force Battler to write those drafts or he decided to write them on his own, for his own reasons?
Did Battler recover his memory decently enough after the second time he heard about Rokkenjima but was in denial for a while or that time was just a tiny glimpse and it took him a lot of time to get an understandable picture?
Was Yasu on Rokkenjima or she had left already?
Did Yasu ever set in motion what lead to the tragedy or the siblings digged their graves by themselves?
And I guess more questions can be done...

For each answer you choose the scenario changes turning Yasu into a good or bad person.

The only thing we know for sure is:
Ikuko bribed the doctor to keep silent about Battler's incident.
There must be a reason for this.
If Ikuko is a stranger why is she doing this?
Either because she caused the incident or because she knew who Battler was and didn't want other people to discover it.

If she caused the incident and wanted to keep it hidden she's not that nice of a person, though we can say she tried to make up to it by taking care of Battler.

If she knew who Battler was... she's hiding the truth from him without an apparent reason. If she believes it was an incident she has no reason to keep him parted from his family, if she believes it wasn't an incident she has no way to know who was the culprit among Battler, Eva and the other Ushiromiya so it's weird she would risk to take in her house someone who could have killed all his family, included his nine years old cousin.

If she didn't cause the incident and didn't know who Battler was... why to bribe the doctor and take care of Battler?

For Yasu is easy to find explanations about why she would bribe the doctor and some of them can be nice while others definitely are not but for Ikuko... it gets harder to find nice logical explanations.

So, all in all, Yasu!Ikuko depending on how you build up her backstory has a 50% of being a jerk and a 50% of not being one but handing things messily and possibly in the wrong way while Stranger!Ikuko is in a worse situation.

So, have you a nice explanation on why Ikuko would bribe a doctor and then 'adopt' Tohya to balance things?

And after all this is said and done can we prove which theory is the right one or are we just running in circles?

Because in the end we can't prove who's Ikuko or her motive for acting nor if she actively tried to make Battler remember due to ill will or due to the belief it would be better for him so even if I enjoy making and reading theories... can we really prove 1 of them is true? Or are we merely creating more opposite solutions like it was done in Ep 5, basically allowing the solution 'a witch did it' exist as well?

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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
I think this what RK07 thought every time a reader tripped on one of his plot holes.
LOL I wonder if that's the answer we would get were we to ask him about Ikuko and why she bribed the doctor and everything else...

Don't worry about Ikuko, she's just a plot contrivance as well as Tohya's amnesia and the whole thing about how he recovers his memory... anyway you can't solve Prime so don't think too hard about it or you'll only get a headache...
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Old 2013-01-26, 23:56   Link #31774
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Yeah, but not of Rokkenjima, 1986. Unless he lied to Yukari about not being able to remember, which is also quite possible.
Cool, but EP7 couldn't possibly have existed in 1986 so it's irrelevant?

Regardless, making Will represent Toya is redundant; Sorcerer Battler already embodies Toya. That's the entire point of his ascension as the Territory Lord.

Quote:
I get your sarcasm, but I don't get your point. As far as my Japanese knowledge goes, there's nothing even close to a number-pun that could be made to link Asumu to Ikuko.
Someone around here posted a pretty damn good one somewhere.

Not that it really matters; isn't the main number pun more to do with the "Toya Hachijou" name? The Toya was pretty important and 'Ikuko' isn't all that special, if I recall.

And of course, the entire number pun = 18 = Toya anyway.

Quote:
You know that from..... where? The forgeries? Or did you perhaps get a glimpse of RokkenjimaPrime?
Because Ikuko doesn't have amnesia, so if she's Yasu, then she knows what happened on Rokkenjima. She was there.

Quote:
Again, you base that from your knowledge about the forgeries.
The Forgeries have nothing to do with my reasoning, it's simple deductive logic.

Quote:
I show you what you essentially do: Let's assume Eva went Psycho and killed everyone:



If Ikuko is a random stranger then she's fucking with an amnesiac person to selfishly compensate for her loneliness and inferiority complex, by having him as her private "talk-buddy-slave" and then she realizes that she can use him to make money and start a great novelist career by using his knowledge from the Rokkenjima incident that he feels uncomfortable about! She's basically taking a traumatized survivor from Rokkenjima and forces memories out of him that cleary hurt him to remember, just so she can have a great and successful career!

Meanwhile Ikuko as Yasu is taking care of him and even though overchallenged with this task, trying her best, and her harm done to him is pretty much entirely unintentional because she was convinced that he was hurting because he did only partially remember and because of that tried to made him remember so he can fully remember and "close that case and move on".

Random!Ikuko has a nasty ulterior motive based around abducting a random defenseless person, manipulating him, making him her fulltime roommate (and possibly her "boyfried") and essentially just using him as a cash cow. Yasu!Ikuko has no ulterior motive because she was just protecting him from Eva.
This is stupid, and you KNOW it's stupid. Ikuko as a stranger doesn't entertain the idea of having Toya write with her until they've been living together for a considerable amount of time, meanwhile trying to get him healthy and recollecting his memories with no clear benefit to herself.

Also, there's no indication that the Hachijous are profiting off the Rokkenjima Forgeries since they...you know...post them on internet forums.

Meanwhile Yasu!Ikuko is willingly withholding information from Toya no matter how you slice it, and this is unethical because the uncertainty of everything is giving him extreme emotional trauma for literally over a decade.

Yasu!Ikuko has the means of easing Toya's self-torture in every possible situation, and does nothing about it. Random!Ikuko never has the means of ending it, and is thus absolved of responsibility.

Quote:
This goes back to genious Battler theory. How well read is he supposed to be, especially in the mystery genre? What happens if you rip out the confession out of "And then there was none"? UN Owen becomes a 400 year old witch, according to Yasu. Battler was supposed to be well read and really good at solving mystery novels. All those witches that he killed, or rather books that he finished.
Except even as a child Battler believes in the 'heart' of the mystery, and Will is specifically explained as having heartlessly killed those witches and acquired that appreciation for the 'heart' near the end of his career.

Quote:
Ahh don't worry about that. If I take enough time I can work out a perfect solid solution to prove my theories by inserting even more assumptions.
This is exactly why your rebuttal to me is bullshit. You had to make assumptions, while I only used the facts available. Check and mate.

Quote:
The only thing we know for sure is:
Ikuko bribed the doctor to keep silent about Battler's incident.
There must be a reason for this.
If Ikuko is a stranger why is she doing this?
Either because she caused the incident or because she knew who Battler was and didn't want other people to discover it.
None of the above. Battler is quite clearly the survivor of the Rokkenjima Incident because the faces of the 'victims', including Battler, are probably plastered all over the goddamn news and if Toya saw a doctor, his status as a living person, even as an amnesiac, has to be legally reported by the hospital, meaning that Toya will then be harassed by the paparazzi like Eva was and that's probably not good for a brain-damaged amnesiac with PTSD and severe emotional baggage and identity issues.

Quote:
For Yasu is easy to find explanations about why she would bribe the doctor and some of them can be nice while others definitely are not but for Ikuko... it gets harder to find nice logical explanations.
Ikuko is only difficult to explain if you forget that there's totally a world outside of Rokkenjima.
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Old 2013-01-27, 13:00   Link #31775
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Because Ikuko doesn't have amnesia, so if she's Yasu, then she knows what happened on Rokkenjima. She was there.
ahhh... for example Yasu was in the main building and using her magic saw everything that happened in the nearby guesthouse... seems legit.

that must be it! In RokkenjimaPrime magic existed.


I mean, just think about it... by your logic Battler in the forgeries would always know who the murderer was... because "he was there". 1 Problem though: He did not know who the murderer was.



But go ahead and call Yasu knowing about everything that is going on on Rokkenjima "fact" or "deductive logic".
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Old 2013-01-27, 15:44   Link #31776
AuraTwilight
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ahhh... for example Yasu was in the main building and using her magic saw everything that happened in the nearby guesthouse... seems legit.

that must be it! In RokkenjimaPrime magic existed.
That's retarded. Eva knew who the culprit was, allegedly, and she didn't even orchestrate a complicated murder mystery game/inheritance gambit that involved buying off a bunch of the adults.

You know, like Yasu did.

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I mean, just think about it... by your logic Battler in the forgeries would always know who the murderer was... because "he was there". 1 Problem though: He did not know who the murderer was.
Battler doesn't know because HE HAS AMNESIA, stupid.
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Old 2013-01-27, 16:42   Link #31777
jjblue1
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Okay, let's go through this again in small step. In bold what we know Ikuko choses to do.

Stranger!Ikuko

Possibilities:

She finds an injured unknown guy on the street and carries him to the doctor where she discovers the guy suffers of amnesia. She can:
- let the doctor contact the police so they'll search for whoever hit him
- break law and bribe the doctor so as to let the crime unpunished

She finds an injured guy whom she recognizes as Battler on the street and carries him to the doctor where she discovers he suffers of amnesia. She can:
- contact his family so he could go back to his aunt and sister who hopefully will help him recover his memory and take care of him.
- let the doctor contact the police so they'll search for whoever hit him and inform his family they've found him
- break law and bribe the doctor so as to let the crime unpunished, not tell him who his family nor let his family know he's alive

She hit a guy with her car on the street. Then she carries him to the doctor where she discovers the guy suffers of amnesia. She can:
- turn herself to the police
- break law and bribe the doctor so as to let her crime unpunished

She hit a guy whom later she recognizes as Battler with her car on the street. Then she carries him to the doctor where she discovers the guy suffers of amnesia. She can:
- turn herself to the police
- bribe the doctor so as to let her crime unpunished but still ask him to warn Battler's family he's alive and let him return to them or warn them herself
- break law and bribe the doctor so as to let her crime unpunished and never inform the Ushiromiya Battler is alive or let him know what his true identity is

And now let's dwelve deeper in the assumptions she can make if she discovered he was Battler, apparently short after she had found him.

If she assumed it was an incident, like likely the first reports reported and the police will later declare she can decide:
- it's better for Battler to return to his family who probably loves him and miss him and warn/have them warned he was found
- inform Battler about who he is so he can choose if he wants return to them regardless of not remembering them even though he's trying to recover his memories and the fact the press and police will probably bug him
- none of the above. It's better to break law and bribe the doctor and keep everyone in the dark about him being alive and never inform him about who he is. Being bugged by press and police is way worse than letting loving relative assume he's dead and mourning him and him having his identity being stolen.

If she assumed it wasn't an incident as some speculated without proof whatsoever and the culprit was an unknown person she can decide:
- it's better for Battler to return to his family who probably loves him and miss him and warn/have them warned he was found
- inform Battler about who he is so he can choose if he wants return to them regardless of not remembering them even though he's trying to recover his memories and the fact the press and police will probably bug him
- none of the above. It's better to break law and bribe the doctor and keep everyone in the dark about him being alive and never inform him about who he is. Being bugged by press and police is way worse than letting loving relative assume he's dead and mourning him and him having his identity being stolen

If she assumed it wasn't an incident as some speculated without proof whatsoever and the culprit was Eva she can decide:
- it's better for Battler to hand him to the police. They might investigate the matter further and discover some evidence as well as help Battler to remember things and take Ange away from Eva.
- inform Battler about who he is so he can choose what he wants to do and, at the same time, might find easier to remember things so that he might find a way to accuse Eva, have her punished and take Ange away from her.
- none of the above. It's better to break law and bribe the doctor and keep everyone in the dark about him being alive and never inform him about who he is. Who cares about punishing Eva or letting in her care a poor kid of 6 after she murdered her relatives? And why should Battler decide about something or try to save his own sister? The risk/stress this stranger would have to face is too big, better let him in the dark and keep him as 'guest'.

If she assumed it wasn't an incident as some speculated without proof whatsoever and the culprit was Battler she can decide:
- it's better she hands Battler to the police. They might find a way to put him into prison and anyway it's not safe to associate with a guy who murdered all his family
- it's better let the doctor hands Battler to the police. They might find a way to put him into prison and anyway it's not safe to associate with a guy who murdered all his family and Battler wouldn't be able to blame her for his arrest as it would be the doctor who handed him and he'd barely saw her.
- break law and bribe the doctor and take Battler home. Everyone wants to have a serial murderer as a guest.

I don't know why but no matter how much I analyze stranger!Ikuko's choices, somehow they never seem the best ones...

Now for par condicio I'd like to make Yasu!Ikuko but with Yasu!Ikuko we've too many variants:

- was she on Rokkenjima in the first place or we merely assumed she was because she portrayed herself as present in the forgeries she wrote?
- if she was in Rokkenjima is she aware of what happened and who caused the insland to go KABOOM? Is this person Battler? Eva? Herself? Someone else?
- if she was in Rokkenjima and doesn't know the truth of what had happened, did she saw/heard something that made her believe the contrary?
- if she was in Rokkenjima but isn't aware of what had happened does she have suspicions that she believes to be true? If so, whom she suspect and can she prove her suspicions? Are their suspicions right or wrong?
- did she voluntary or involuntary set things into motion?
- Is she aware someone else voluntary or involuntary set things into motion? If so who this person was? (Eva, Battler, someone else)
- how and when she managed to assume the identity of Ikuko?
- things really happened like Battler told Ange (he escaped, capsized, ended on a street) or he changed/omitted some parts (he escaped with Yasu, they took on different identities, one day he had a car incident and Yasu found him and you know the rest of the story...or even he was kidnapped by Yasu, tried to escape, had an incident and you know the rest of the story...)?
- was Yasu so traumatized by what happened that she denied all of her past and subconsciously embraced the fictional identity of Ikuko replacing her memory with fictional ones? (yes, it's possible and it's different from amnesia as you believe you've memories... only actually those memories aren't real...)
- was the culprit really one of the people assumed to be on the island or it was someone else (for example the Sumadera's men in black)?
- does Eva know that she's taking care of Battler and approved of it?
- ...

... and so I'm not going to deal with them all since according to which one you pick you get way too much possibilities between which to chose and that make Yasu respectively:

- a monster as not only she caused everyone's death but she's deliberately keeping Battler for herself
- a jerk as she's not responsible of what had happened but she's consciously still trying to take advantage of the situation
- dumb as she honestly believe that what she's doing is the best for Battler when it's not
- so blindly in love with Battler she's covering up for him even when he's behind everyone's death
- someone with the worst luck. Battler escaped with her willingly and willingly decided not to return home and then he had to go and lose memory and she thinks it's better this way because so he won't feel guilty about abandoning Ange but then she feels bad about him forgetting her and didn't realize how much damage could do to him by helping him to recover his memory.
- someone who's temporally mentally unstable and living in denial.
- someone who did something stupid hiding to Battler his true identity, realized she'd done the wrong thing and tried to fix it by helping him to remember to realize she just made matters worse.


And so on.

Now... some theories might seem more possible than others but since Umineko doesn't really care for appeal to probability in its solutions there's no insurance that something, just because it's more likely, more probable, is truer than something else.

In the end: pick whatever theory you'll prefer and make it your golden truth.
I seriously doubt with the info we have someone will manage to turn a theory into red truth but anyway if you feel like trying good luck.
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Old 2013-01-27, 18:02   Link #31778
GreyZone
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@jjblue1:
A very good breakdown of possible scenarios. Thanks for your hard work. Indeed the possibilities are unlimited and as long as we don't get some kind of confirmation about one of these from R07 in some way (like the EP8 manga), we will continue to stay in the dark. All I wanted to say was basically, that Yasu!Ikuko=evil and Stranger!Ikuko=grey is nothing but an assumption.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
That's retarded. Eva knew who the culprit was, allegedly, and she didn't even orchestrate a complicated murder mystery game/inheritance gambit that involved buying off a bunch of the adults.

You know, like Yasu did.
All this argument accomplishes, is making a scenario where Yasu does not know who the perpetrator is, at best "a bit less likely" and is no more than a straw man argument.
Also as jjblue1 said, there is the possibility that Yasu was not on Rokkenjima at all during the incident.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Battler doesn't know because HE HAS AMNESIA, stupid.
I was not referring to Prime!Battler/Tohya. I was talking about the fictional Forgery!Battler.
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Old 2013-01-27, 18:31   Link #31779
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
@jjblue1:
A very good breakdown of possible scenarios. Thanks for your hard work. Indeed the possibilities are unlimited and as long as we don't get some kind of confirmation about one of these from R07 in some way (like the EP8 manga), we will continue to stay in the dark. All I wanted to say was basically, that Yasu!Ikuko=evil and Stranger!Ikuko=grey is nothing but an assumption.
Thank you. And I agree. At the moment they're just theories. Let's hope more would be revealed.

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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
I was not referring to Prime!Battler/Tohya. I was talking about the fictional Forgery!Battler.
And a thing interesting about Forgery!Battler isn't only that he doesn't know who the culprit is but also that even when he knows Eva shot him in Ep 3 he doesn't know that Yasu killed Nanjo and possibly the others and that Eva might have shoot him for the same reason Rosa wanted to shoot him in Ep 2, because she believed he was the culprit.

And I remember in the past there was a theory about Eva's diary containing the truth as she saw it... which meant that even if the fact reported were true the conclusions that one could reach reading/seeing them might not be true.

In Ep 3 Eva and Battler saw Shannon's unmoving body lying on the ground when they found George and thought she was dead... but actually she was faking it. Eva previously also heard that Shannon was declared dead by Nanjo... which was another lie.
However she can say in red.
We found Shannon and Nanjo declared she was dead.
Later I saw her unmoving body lying next to George's face down. Probably my son couldn't accept the idea he would never see her again and went to see her another time when he was attacked.

All this is undoutely true but leads us to think that Shannon is dead when she's not.
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Old 2013-01-27, 20:19   Link #31780
haguruma
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
And a thing interesting about Forgery!Battler isn't only that he doesn't know who the culprit is but also that even when he knows Eva shot him in Ep 3 he doesn't know that Yasu killed Nanjo and possibly the others and that Eva might have shoot him for the same reason Rosa wanted to shoot him in Ep 2, because she believed he was the culprit.
Not quite. For this reasoning to work we'd first have to give a clear definition of Forgery!Battler, which is something that has been often discussed. It is basically the question of, "is Meta!Battler=Forgery!Battler?" or by extension the age old question "do the Forgeries include Meta?"

The Meta!Battler of EP3 at that point knew why Eva was shooting him, because to him she was the culprit in that moment. He trusted Beato so much he was ready to sign into the existence of witches, but was only ripped out of it by Ange's sudden appearance.
The question would rather be, how Forgery!Battler arrived at the point where he accused Eva or if he simply arrived at it by being able to exclude every other possible culprit. They were in the parlor during that scene, so assuming Jessica was dead in the parlor or vanished it wouldn't be unlikely to assume Eva the culprit.

But, if we go by the Meta!Battler=Touya theory, wouldn't it be likely that at the point of releasing Banquet he actually believed in Eva being the culprit? Then we could assume that Ange's appearance in the Meta-World is her attempt at reaching Hachijou Touya, which was mentioned in EP8's ???.

The problem about Forgery!Battler in this context is, that he can only be written with the knowledge that the author(s) hold.
Yasu's Battler was likely written before the incident, so if we consider that the incident that happened is not the plan that she had, then her Battler, Forgery!Battler(A) can have no knowledge of the actual culprit and is likely not given knowledge of her intended culprit Beatrice's true identity.
You could basically say that the Meta-Battler of EP2 was the opponent that Yasu had in mind when writing her forgeries and possibly the initial reaction by Touya. So the Battler that gave into the witch and died at the end of EP2 was Forgery!Battler(A), the Battler that appeared in the meta-parlor to save Rosa was actually a new entity, formed by Touya's resolve to solve the mystery, a new Forgery!Battler(B).

The Hachijou Battler was initially conceptualized by a person who had no perfect recollection of who Ushiromiya Battler was, so Touya's Battler, Forgery!Battler(B), does have a clearer intuition of what might have happened, but is likely not based on perfect recollection and thus does not know the actual culprit even if Prime!Battler might have known who it was.
Then there is the post-recollection Hachijou Battler. The question is, is this a seamless transition which makes him the same entity as (B), or do we have to take the meta-death in EP5 as a traumatic transition as well and argue that he is so different from (B) that he would actually have to categorized as Forgery!Battler(C), who symbolizes Touya coming to terms with who Prime!Battler might have been and also realizing what actually happened.
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