French Presidency candidates?

[Toukairin]

Safe to say that France found its Bernie Sanders in Melenchon. This should get interesting for the next step of this saga.

[Sheba]

He is so far left as far as "mainstream" candidates are concerned that the CIA would order a coup if he got elected.

EDIT

Opinion poll about voting intentions from BFMTV:

Macron 24% Le Pen 24% Melenchon 18% Fillon 17%

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by Sheba

He is so far left as far as "mainstream" candidates are concerned that the CIA would order a coup if he got elected.

In a world where the far right is growing rampant, I can live with a guy like him as president of a major country. It's all about balance, and God knows we need someone like that to tell the likes of Trump, May, Farage, Wilders, and other right-wing nuts to stick one where the sun doesn't shine.

[Blaat]

Originally Posted by Sheba

He is so far left as far as "mainstream" candidates are concerned that the CIA would order a coup if he got elected.

Do they realise the cold war is over?

[Ithekro]

Originally Posted by Blaat

Do they realise the cold war is over?

They likely do. Their goal would be to prevent another one from starting.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Blaat

Do they realise the cold war is over?

Seeing how we got Democrats seeing Russian spies everywhere....


Back to the topic:

Le Pen have claimed that the Vel d'Hiv roundup is not France's fault. Now every Pepe spammers or Hitler Did Nothing Wrong shitposters need to know that the France's role in this is a very sensitive subject. Heck, holding blatant negationist or revisionist views on this topic is social death.

This is ironic on Marine Le Pen's part since she did lots of effort to de-diabolize her father's party who was notoriously anti-semitic.

[Anh_Minh]

First round tomorrow. Funny how there's a good chance Mélanchon will be able to claim he lost because the PS candidate didn't withdraw. A bit like Jill Stein saying she lost because Hillary ran instead of supporting her.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Opinion poll about voting intentions from BFMTV:
Macron 24% Le Pen 24% Melenchon 18% Fillon 17%

I'd be curious to know what kind of cooperation rates polls get in France. In the US the figure is down to ten percent or less which means the results depend largely on which citizens agree to cooperate with a pollster. Speaking professionally, the evidence from polls conducted via automated methods versus ones by human interviewers showed higher levels of support for Trump, particularly during the primaries. That pattern suggested there were voters who were unwilling to admit their support of Trump to another human but perfectly willing to express their support to a robot. Is there evidence of such a pattern when it comes to support for Le Pen? How likely is it that she will command the largest plurality tomorrow?

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I'd be curious to know what kind of cooperation rates polls get in France. In the US the figure is down to ten percent or less which means the results depend largely on which citizens agree to cooperate with a pollster. Speaking professionally, the evidence from polls conducted via automated methods versus ones by human interviewers showed higher levels of support for Trump, particularly during the primaries. That pattern suggested there were voters who were unwilling to admit their support of Trump to another human but perfectly willing to express their support to a robot. Is there evidence of such a pattern when it comes to support for Le Pen?

Apparently so (French article). But that phenomenon's on the decrease, due to Marine Le Pen's work to make her party more socially acceptable.

The numbers we get are supposed to account for it, but somehow never quite do.

How likely is it that she will command the largest plurality tomorrow?

Pretty good, alas. Her electorate is much more firmly behind her than Macron's.

[Sheba]

The fact That she voiced her will to défend French identity against globalists like Macron echoes the growing resentment of her voters who think that Washington and EU are hellbent on erasing french héritage. Only Mélenchon and Fillon showed something similar.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Apparently so (French article). But that phenomenon's on the decrease, due to Marine Le Pen's work to make her party more socially acceptable.

The understatement reported in that article is pretty small, on the order of one to two percent comparing polls the actual vote for the FN. That is, if my French still holds up after all these years! My estimate for Trump in the primaries is twice that, though I found no effect for polling methodology in general election polls. My interpretation of that was similar to the one you give; the imprimatur of being the Republican candidate made it more acceptable to express your support for Trump to pollsters.

[Jaden]

Le Pen's betting odds are at around 10-3, Trump's were 25-1 at best. The gamblers are learning.

I've got 50 bucks on Le Pen anyway.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

The understatement reported in that article is pretty small, on the order of one to two percent comparing polls the actual vote for the FN. That is, if my French still holds up after all these years! My estimate for Trump in the primaries is twice that, though I found no effect for polling methodology in general election polls. My interpretation of that was similar to the one you give; the imprimatur of being the Republican candidate made it more acceptable to express your support for Trump to pollsters.

It used to be a factor of 2.4. As in, you had to multiply her dad's poll results by 2.4 to get his score. But now, yeah, it's just a few percentage points.

[scififan]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Because Melenchon actually caters to the workers, whereas the Socialists lost to identity politics like the Democrats did, Macron is seen as the puppet of the finance and Le Pen repeat the same old "France is dying, and its all because of the Evil Brown People" that we have heard from her dad already.

I can't find that quote. However, I found some non-English forums with people who sympathizes her. They described Europe as in turmoil. The forums described Europe as the victims of their own doing. After the Great Wars, Europe embraced peace, equality and justice for all. They even took in people who never believe in those ideologies. The forums said those non-believer used violence against other people who have different religious belief, and those people are said to commit crime against women. The forums said the mainstream media are covering up those deeds. If you have some materials to refute those posters' claims, it would be great.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by scififan

I can't find that quote. However, I found some non-English forums with people who sympathizes her. They described Europe as in turmoil. The forums described Europe as the victims of their own doing. After the Great Wars, Europe embraced peace, equality and justice for all. They even took in people who never believe in those ideologies. The forums said those non-believer used violence against other people who have different religious belief, and those people are said to commit crime against women. The forums said the mainstream media are covering up those deeds. If you have some materials to refute those posters' claims, it would be great.

I don't think you can "refute" anything that vague. And there absolutely are brown immigrant criminals and domestic abusers, just like there are pasty white ones whose families have lived in the same place for generations.

[Botan_TM]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

I don't think you can "refute" anything that vague. And there absolutely are brown immigrant criminals and domestic abusers, just like there are pasty white ones whose families have lived in the same place for generations.

But one cannot see, what one do not want to see. In the past for sure, I do not know how it is currently, it is forbidden by law to collect statistics referring to “racial or ethnic origin”. So nobody can expect anything more than "vague" anyway, even if to refute rumours

[Sheba]

French dont do statistics by ethnic origins.

[Sheba]

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 19.5%

Second round will be Macron vs Le Pen.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 19.5%

Second round will be Macron vs Le Pen.

Those must be exit poll results, yes? Official totals are just starting to come in.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Those must be exit poll results, yes? Official totals are just starting to come in.

They were the first estimations (at 8PM. Voting closed at 7PM in most places.). Based on the actual votes, though they're not complete counts, obviously.

edit: here. (In French again, sorry.)