[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 7 Requiem of the golden witch

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Renall

It could fairly be said that Eva's survival in the Tea Party was miraculous though. What I wonder is, wouldn't the cops who found her have noticed she had gunshot wounds? Even if she was just grazed, she absolutely would've had an injury. That would've proved outright that something was amiss.

That's one of the first things I thought watching that scene. Of course since the whole Bern story seemed messed up to me from the very beginning I automatically thought that this was yet another proof that the story couldn't be true.
But well another explanation is that they covered the story up.

Originally Posted by Oliver

And once again, 900 tons of munitions or 900 tons of explosives?

Last year, November, an army munitions warehouse in Ulyanovsk had a fire, caused by incorrect disassembling of munitions for destruction. Not unexpectedly, the fire very quickly turned into detonations of munitions, mostly artillery shells. Some facts:

• You'd expect that it would all just go up after the first few shells blew, but nope, it kept burning for an entire day and didn't even burn down completely.
• At least six shells landed all across town, some of them quite far, some unexploded.
• Everyone who reached the bomb shelter on the territory of the warehouse itself was safely evacuated later.
• The total amount of explosives destroyed was about 120 tons. No crater. Shockwave damage, like windows blown out, was reported for about 2km away.

The army and the citizens had a field day, but the loss of life and property has been quite low for this kind of incident.

Basically, to actually make a promised crater with munitions, you really need to ensure it all goes up at once from your detonation signal. You can't wire detonators to 10% of everything and expect the rest to blow, and you can't wire detonators to everything and then expect to use it a munitions warehouse. Most of it will end up all around the area, much of it unexploded, and Kuwadorian is still likely to be smeared across the ground by the shockwave anyway. Demolition charge, no problem. Completed munitions, doubtful...

It has to be explosive.
As you well explained even if you gather 900 tons of munitions all in the same places you don't really get a good result.
Of course this story is hardly credibly for me. This was supposed to be a secret base for kaiten torpedoes. Apparently you'd need several hundreds of them in order to obtain the 900 tons of explosive, there weren't even produced that many.
In addition this was a base no longer considered strategically relevant, the project was abandoned. Why there would be so many kaiten? That doesn't make much sense.
It even make less sense if the 900 tons of explosive were brought there as pure explosive by the japanese government.
Exactly for which purpose such a huge amount of explosive was brought there? And why would it be still there once the base was practically abandoned?
Finally, how could they forget such a huge amount of explosive or missiles or ammunitions were still there?

And I have more

The base was located on the kuwadorian side, so obviously the 900 tons of explosive had to be moved from the base to the other side of the island.
There's no way Kinzo did that all alone, there's no way that could be done with a few people.
And then what about the clock mechanism? Did Kinzo created it by himself?
How many people were involved in this 900 tons bomb?

Now if this is true, nothing deserves a "I can't put it past Kinzo" more than this one.


for what concerns the shockwave. It's true, if an explosion of that kind happened, the shockwave should have razed the Kuwadorian or at the very least badly damaged it. The only explanation I can find is that there is a hill or a high elevation just in the proximity of the Kuwadorian exactly as it is shown in the map made by Deen. In that case the Kuwadorian should be protected enough.

Originally Posted by Smeckledorf

A close range gunshot missing seems like a miracle to me, even if one might call it 'dumb luck'.

Extremely rare but not unheard of. Plus Rudolf stated several times that it's not easy to aim correctly with those weapons.
Rather, I find extremely strange that Kyrie aimed at the head instead of the body. If she aimed at the head then it's not that strange that she missed, she should have known that.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Of course this story is hardly credibly for me. This was supposed to be a secret base for kaiten torpedoes. Apparently you'd need several hundreds of them in order to obtain the 900 tons of explosive, there weren't even produced that many.

About 600. Only 400 were produced. 100 of them were launched. The warheads on them were the same as a more numerous unmanned torpedo, but like I said before, it's still enough for a few major battles for the entire IJN. Or about 900 Yamato main battery shells, which would be enough for 50 minutes uninterrupted firing. I don't think it could do uninterrupted firing for that long, actually.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

And then what about the clock mechanism? Did Kinzo created it by himself?

If you have a ready-made "blow everything to bits" button, wiring a clock to it is trivial. The problem is getting that button in the first place and the provided explanation for having it does not sound right.

So I expect the "forgotten wartime munitions" story is actually the coverup for the real reason the bomb was there -- at least this way, the people responsible are simply not on the job anymore.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Oliver

About 600. Only 400 were produced. 100 of them were launched. The warheads on them were the same as a more numerous unmanned torpedo, but like I said before, it's still enough for a few major battles for the entire IJN.

But that's not enough to get 900 tons of explosive. even if you extracted all the explosive from the warheads of all those 400 kaitens that were produced you'd only get 620 tons. and certainly that secret and forgotten base couldn't have not even half of the whole known kaiten produced.


Another explanation is that the explosive was used to create the underground tunnel. however 900tons are enough to blow half of the island, so there's no way there was such a huge leftover.


I also thought about the possibility that the explosive was inside the submarine. but yet again it's impossible and preposterous that they brought such a huge amount.
Could an italian submarine of that time even carry 900tons?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I also thought about the possibility that the explosive was inside the submarine. but yet again it's impossible and preposterous that they brought such a huge amount.
Could an italian submarine of that time even carry 900tons?

Nope.
Italian R-class cargo submarines were limited to 600 tons at most. Maximum they were actually loaded to was about 250 tons, it appears. German cargo submarines have the top cargo capacity listed at 700 tons, though they did run full much of the time. German Type XIV were equipped for field resupply, so while they had cargo space, most of it was for liquid fuel -- 400 tons of fuel and four torpedoes. USSR WWII submarine cargo operations were conducted with regular submarines which never exceeded 95 tons per run, and they stuffed supplies everywhere including the torpedo tubes to do it too, no purpose-built cargo submarines were made. USA and UK apparently never used submarines for this in any serious way.

900 tons of a TNT-derived explosive takes a bloody lot of space too, 1.5 tons per cubic meter or so.
EDIT: That's something like a 8.5-meter tall cube.

[Will Wright]

A friend who just finished episode 7 developed a theory that the reason Kanon thinks he can't be loved is because of Dine's 3rd and that he is the true Battler while the Battler we know of is Shannon, making Kanon the true detective. After all as hinted in episode 6, there is no rule about detectives not being killed.

Can't say I heard that one before. Or agree with it. Or...I don't know. I'm kinda just saying "...huh" while thinking about how many holes that theory has.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Will Wright

A friend who just finished episode 7 developed a theory that the reason Kanon thinks he can't be loved is because of Dine's 3rd and that he is the true Battler while the Battler we know of is Shannon, making Kanon the true detective. After all as hinted in episode 6, there is no rule about detectives not being killed.

Can't say I heard that one before. Or agree with it. Or...I don't know. I'm kinda just saying "...huh" while thinking about how many holes that theory has.

The biggest one would be that Kanon is seen more often in magic scenes than outside them, which makes his capability to be the detective rather questionable.

But that someone has to be the Other Battler and that it's been conspicuously ignored is a fact. And the idea that some characters may think they can't be loved because of Dine rules is refreshingly novel.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Oliver

900 tons of a TNT-derived explosive takes a bloody lot of space too, 1.5 tons per cubic meter or so.
EDIT: That's something like a 8.5-meter tall cube.

he... you'd need a whole section of the underground tunnel stacked with explosive, that's the only place where Kinzo could put it.

btw the 10tons of gold certainly wouldn't vaporize in the explosion. Shouldn't the whole area around the island covered with gold shards?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

btw the 10tons of gold certainly wouldn't vaporize in the explosion. Shouldn't the whole area around the island covered with gold shards?

Actually, depending on how far it is from the bomb (and how dispersed the bomb is - we're talking 600 cubic meters here if it's maximally densely packed) two things could happen:

• Gold actually vaporises. That is, it turns into vapours of metallic gold and disperses in the air as nanoparticles with the smoke. Some surviving objects in the vicinity might actually become gilded.
• Gold bars, mostly as is but sometimes torn into smaller pieces, would fly in uncertain directions. Some of it would be embedded in the ground, most of it quite deep. What wouldn't would fly off into the sea (being very dense, gold would fly 2-10km, almost no air drag for the mass) and sink. Very few bars would land in accessible places on the island if any at all.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Oliver

The biggest one would be that Kanon is seen more often in magic scenes than outside them, which makes his capability to be the detective rather questionable.

But that someone has to be the Other Battler and that it's been conspicuously ignored is a fact. And the idea that some characters may think they can't be loved because of Dine rules is refreshingly novel.

I still maintain that "Other Battler" was the true stillborn, and that Asumu was as deceived by Rudolph as everyone else. Kyrie would have wanted to see the corpse, she would have made damn sure her baby was dead before giving up on that chance.

And say what you want about Rudolph being a bastard, but I don't think he was cold enough to have knowingly abandoned or killed his own child just to get Kyrie off his back. He's someone who possesses a lot of love, hence his philandering, but he has never been shown to be ruthless outside of the Episode 7 Tea Party.

Kyrie would not have given up on her child unless it truly was stillborn. She's driven and was at the time desperate enough to not give up unless there was "absolute certainty" of that hope being extinguished.

Rudolph knowingly abandoning his baby son, or even outright killing it for the sake of getting out of having to raise it, is completely out of character for Rudolph.

The baby from 19 years ago that was thrown off the cliff has been more or less outright stated to be Yasu. "Other Battler" was stillborn from Asumu. There is no need for him to exist on the game board.

[Used Can]

I wonder what are the chances for Rudolph to have done that swap, because he didn't want his child raised by Kyrie. I mean, according to Kyrie, she was Rudolph's #1, yet this swap doesn't make sense - additionally, info from EP6 and EP7 have made it sound as if Rudolph actually loved Asumu, unlike what Kyrie seems to believe. So, unless we think either a.) Rudolph didn't want his son to be raised by her, or b.) He wanted to save face, and did the swap so that people wouldn't think he had a child outside marriage, then this doesn't make sense (there may be other possibilities, I don't know). Personally, I think the former is more likely, since almost everyone knew he was a player and almost everyone knew he was cheating Asumu with Kyrie.

I think there's something fucked up with the Sumadera family, Rudolph found out but by that time, he had already got close to Kyrie and he couldn't shake her off. He said he married Kyrie because Ange was on her way, and that was the responsible thing to do.

I cannot help but to smell something fishy from the Sumaderas, Okonogi, Hideyoshi, Kyrie and maybe even George. However, this would sound like some sort of conspiracy, and I guess that goes against Dine's rules.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Used Can

I wonder what are the chances for Rudolph to have done that swap, because he didn't want his child raised by Kyrie. I mean, according to Kyrie, she was Rudolph's #1, yet this swap doesn't make sense - additionally, info from EP6 and EP7 have made it sound as if Rudolph actually loved Asumu, unlike what Kyrie seems to believe. So, unless we think either a.) Rudolph didn't want his son to be raised by her, or b.) He wanted to save face, and did the swap so that people wouldn't think he had a child outside marriage, then this doesn't make sense (there may be other possibilities, I don't know). Personally, I think the former is more likely, since almost everyone knew he was a player and almost everyone knew he was cheating Asumu with Kyrie.

I think there's something fucked up with the Sumadera family, Rudolph found out but by that time, he had already got close to Kyrie and he couldn't shake her off. He said he married Kyrie because Ange was on her way, and that was the responsible thing to do.

The fact of the matter is that the swap did happen. And personally speaking, I think that there's a motive C) for the swap:

Because Rudolph loved Asumu, he realized how heartbroken she would be to learn that her child had been stillborn, whereas her enemy and Rudolph's mistress, Kyrie, had managed to successfully give birth.

Therefore Rudolph, for Asumu's happiness, and for the sake of creating a perfectly functioning nuclear family, made the swap, leaving Kyrie to spend over a decade languishing in despair, hatred, and envy.

I cannot help but to smell something fishy from the Sumaderas, Okonogi, Hideyoshi, Kyrie and maybe even George. However, this would sound like some sort of conspiracy, and I guess that goes against Dine's rules.

The presence of Okonogi and the entire situation with the Sumadera family already reeks of conspiracy. But I think that since it isn't relevant to the real mystery (The Rokkenjimma Murders), it's not technically a violation.

[EndlessMugen]

If you have a secret sub base, wouldn't you need effectively a small refinery or a significant sized reservour of fuel to supply it between trips.
This could account for part of the explosion, along with unused munitions in the vicinity as a means to start up a chain reaction of some sort.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by EndlessMugen

If you have a secret sub base, wouldn't you need effectively a small refinery or a significant sized reservour of fuel to supply it between trips.
This could account for part of the explosion, along with unused munitions in the vicinity as a means to start up a chain reaction of some sort.

As far as I know Rokkenjima was not actually functioning as a submarine base, therefore it's improbable that they had such fuel supplies, as in for more than one sub at a time at most.
And as far as I know, even submarine fuel doesn't actually explode. You can use it as an additional force in an explosion, but I think you would still need explosives for that. I admit I'm not an expert on physics or chemical science...maybe some of our experts in those fields can give a definite answer here ...

[Renall]

I'm not entirely sure what the purpose of the Rokkenjima installation was. It seems like the way Kinzo was talking about it, it was meant to be a natural pen for hiding the subs in (to avoid Allied sub hunts or maybe aerial attacks?) and for rearming the torpedoes. It doesn't seem to have been a major installation with full facilities, nor would it make sense for it to be, because (1) I'm pretty sure there were major shipyards and sub pens on the Japanese mainland not that far away, (2) if it were a "proper" base, the military would've been a lot more active there (Kinzo seemed really bored) and the government wouldn't have quite so easily forgotten about it.

Then again, they in one breath say the base is top secret and in another say the Italians knew they were coming there when they set out, so I guess it wasn't that big a secret.

[Jan-Poo]

Kinzo makes it clear that calling it a base is an overstatement. It was more like a cavern barely adapted to work as a base and it wasn't even finished.

So yes it was a natural pen that was artificially enlarged.

As to how the italians came to know of its existence I don't think it was clearly stated, but I can only think of two possibilities:


1) the italian submarine launched a distress call once in the vicinity of the japanese borders <- this must be true, because Yamamoto knew of their arrival in advance.

2a) the japanese military picked that signal and redirected them to the nearest base because their submarine was badly damaged and needed to dock as soon as possible. However why such important guests were left by themselves with a deranged squad?

2b) Yamamoto himself picked the signal and gave them the necessary instructions to dock in Rokkenjima. However how did he manage to communicate that message?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by chounokoe

And as far as I know, even submarine fuel doesn't actually explode. You can use it as an additional force in an explosion, but I think you would still need explosives for that. I admit I'm not an expert on physics or chemical science...maybe some of our experts in those fields can give a definite answer here ...

I'm not really an expert, but I remember a lot of trivia.

Submarines of that era ran on diesel pretty much exclusively. There was a small population of petrol-using submarines, but it largely ended with WWI era. Diesel fuel is mostly the non-volatile fraction of crude oil. Explosions of liquid hydrocarbons are actually a bit overhyped, as they don't contain oxidiser of their own -- what explodes in a gas station is not the fuel itself, but fumes of the lighter fractions of gasoline mixed with air. Diesel fuel has very little of those, so while you can make it explode if you really want to, a thousand tons will at most create a lake of fire, which will be very hard to put out, but won't make a crater.

You can make an effective bomb with diesel fuel, for example by mixing it with ammonium nitrate, which works as an oxidiser -- that's ANFO, a popular industrial explosive. It would still only be 0.8 TNT equivalent so you'd need 1125 tons of it, it requires a complicated mixing procedure to make, and it will absorb water from air, which would render it completely inert in a few months at most.

If that wasn't enough, the actual challenge in this case would be to make the entire thousand tons go off at once without scattering all around. (With bricks of TNT that wouldn't be anywhere that much of a problem.) Not going to work, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Renall

Then again, they in one breath say the base is top secret and in another say the Italians knew they were coming there when they set out, so I guess it wasn't that big a secret.

The text implies that the CO of the base knew Italians were coming and knew they were Italians. If the base really was that big a secret, Italians wouldn't know they need to go there. If they were directed there, it may still have been a big secret but that doesn't explain the absence of an officer from HQ who would deal with it. This is actually one of the bigger holes in the sub story.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

2b) Yamamoto himself picked the signal and gave them the necessary instructions to dock in Rokkenjima. However how did he manage to communicate that message?

The bigger question in this variant is, was he really authorised to do that at all.

[Jan-Poo]

Of course not, even if he did he should have immediately informed his superiors, which then again brings the problem of why some higher officer didn't went there to welcome the guests.
Was the japan brought to such a disarray at that time?

So this scenario implies that Yamamoto acted by his own accord. However why would he do that if he didn't know about the gold yet?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Was the japan brought to such a disarray at that time?

1944? Far from it. They started losing the naval war, and they're desperately short on fuel (which is why nobody would forget over a thousand tons of diesel fuel) but they're definitely not in chaos -- even Yamato is still afloat.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

So this scenario implies that Yamamoto acted by his own accord. However why would he do that if he didn't know about the gold yet?

We have three moderately unacceptable alternatives:

• Yamamoto is psychic and knows to exceed his authority before he has an incentive to do it, and has to endure the language barrier to do it.
• Italians are psychic and know about a base they can't know about.
• HQ directed Italians to the base and then completely forgot they existed, even though at the time the visit had to have been extremely strategically important.

I say they all suck.

[Jan-Poo]

It was actually 1945.

there is a comment note in the code that says

;■１９４５年、六軒島。@地上。@

just before the scene where submarine arrives.

however I don't think it changes anything. As far as I know Japan could still continue that war for a long while if it weren't for the nuclear bombs.