(CR) Saki Zenkoku-hen (National Tournament Arc)

[tjalorak]

Originally Posted by Kanon

She only had to play defensively when Hatsumi was in the North seat, it's not that big a sacrifice to make.

Heh. Hisa was a bit vague with her warning. But to be fair, singling out Hatsumi would lead to Nodoka bristling and refusing to listen (SOA). Trying to get around that by suggesting two wind pons may probably lead to a little / big four winds was a pretty neat tactic.

I was very impressed by the anime / manga showing us how various strategists explained Hatsumi's ability to their players, illustrating how good the strategist is given the information she has, how they adapt what they know and relay it to their players such that the players won't refuse to accept the info, and how the players themselves responded.

Yakumans are HUGE, it's better to be safe and sorry.

Yup. One yakuman basically wiped out everyones gains. Vice Captain battle ended up being much ado about nothing in terms of results. Heh.

Nodoka noticed what Hisa told her was correct, but she just dismissed it as big coincidence and played recklessly as a result imo. If Sae hadn't been there to block Hatsumi the first three times, what would have happened? We'll never know for sure but I can't help thinking about that.

On a tactical level? Eisui runs away with the round. On a strategic level? Eisui blows everyone away and everyone fights for 2nd place. Seriously, BOTH of their big hitters have been nerfed to the point where they're basically getting neutral points, the other two players are also getting basically nothing points wise, and Eisui still has a very good chance of grabbing a spot for the next round going into the Captain match. Their team is amazingly stacked and without the (double!) nerfing, they steamroll the competition like Senriyama (and presumably Shiraitodai) did in their QF. Even getting one of them going like Hatsumi would have been enough, esp. with such an amazing closer like Kasumi, who is already showing off her awesome defensive play.

Going into the round, you could say the major motivations for Nodoka should be:
1. Maintain 2nd place
2. Increase the gap to 3rd
3. Decrease the gap to 1st / Overtake 1st

It's all well and good to get points (and it'd be hard to accomplish these goals without getting points...), but the most important thing is always going to be placement. So the biggest thing to take care of is: gap to 2nd. As 2nd placed going into the round, she can afford to look at some of the other gaps as well, but those gaps should always be less relevant than the first.

So, without Sae...

While a yakuman win in the 1st hanchan would hurt Himematsu more than Kiyosumi (a relative 8000 point gain on Himematsu), the point spread between schools means that that Eisui's yakuman win bumps her out of 2nd to 3rd and increases her gap to 2nd from 0 to basically 20K (!). This is a terrible result. At this point, you might as well want 2 yakumans to occur because with Himematsu now in 2nd, yakuman tsumos hurt Himematsu more and players shouldn't worry about gap to 1st when their gap to 2nd is not 0 (in the QFs).

Another yakuman tsumo in 1st hanchan drops the gap to 2nd to 12k. This does, however, basically let Eisui lock up 1 spot because Kasumi isn't letting go of the top spot with a 50k+ point lead on 2nd. To be fair, with Saki as Captain, a 12k point gap is well within her capabilities so Eisui and Kiyosumi sail through. This assumes that Nodoka manages to avoid / prevent Eisui's yakumans in the 2nd hanchan.

For Himematsu, at that point, if it is apparent that Eisui's yakumans cannot be stopped / Nodoka deals out single wind tiles, they may just want to consider helping Eisui on her North turns in the 2nd hanchan (so long as they don't play in). It increases the gap to 1st but... Kinue isn't overcoming a 50k point gap and criteria is increase gap to 3rd first before thinking about overtaking 1st. Yakuman tsumos in the 2nd hanchan are flipped for relative advantages so another yakuman balloons the gap to 3rd (from Himematsu POV) to 20k or 28k.

Assuming 1st hanchan goes same as canon, a yakuman tsumo in the 2nd is... not ideal but actually ok. IIRC, Eisui has lost more than 8k at that point and Kiyosumi is up +10k or so. Even being hit with the dealer penalty will have a smaller gap to 2nd than the 1st hanchan (around <15k IIRC). Nodoka needs to make sure that Eisui only gets one yakuman though in the 2nd hanchan because a 2nd will see Eisui jump clear to 1st, meaning that the gap to 2nd will now be around 45k.

So, yeah, Sae with her incentives was a great help to Nodoka (and of course, to her own team as well). The above scenarios are not very helpful to Miyamori.

[tarajis]

Originally Posted by HandofFate

When Nodoka goes into that flushed red face mood, isn't that when she goes into total computer mood, and stops thinking or doubting, and just plays exactly like a computer?

Originally Posted by teja208

I think what RRR tries to say is that it could've been better for people to be able to understand and appreciate Nodoka if we can hear her strategizing in her head like other characters during her match, but the thing is, we never hear her thoughts because of her computer-like mindset. After all, computer don't strategize, it only calculates.

Originally Posted by The Green One

Nodoka for years played Mahjong online only. When doing that her opponents were completely unphysical presences to her. They weren't sitting in front of her at all. Just faceless and formless entities. So if it seems she's not paying attention to that other players that's 100% normal for her. The chairs may as well be empty for all that it matters to her.

For all we know maybe Nodoka while having a flushed red face is in her yuri fantasy with Saki... it may be an extremely hardcore yuri fantasy that Ritz~sensei for health and safety reasons doesn't want to disclose whatever is inside Nodoka's head during that time... it could be fatal to the yuri goggles wearing folks in here...

But seriously though... sooner or later... Ritz~sensei needs to show what Nodoka is thinking during her matches... it will really settle some issues...

[Sol Falling]

Originally Posted by tjalorak

So, without Sae...

While a yakuman win in the 1st hanchan would hurt Himematsu more than Kiyosumi (a relative 8000 point gain on Himematsu), the point spread between schools means that that Eisui's yakuman win bumps her out of 2nd to 3rd and increases her gap to 2nd from 0 to basically 20K (!). This is a terrible result. At this point, you might as well want 2 yakumans to occur because with Himematsu now in 2nd, yakuman tsumos hurt Himematsu more and players shouldn't worry about gap to 1st when their gap to 2nd is not 0 (in the QFs).

The thing you're neglecting here is the 11900 points Hatsumi fed to Kinue in E4 so that Kinue would stay in dealer and give Hatsumi a second chance at her North round. Although it's true that, with one yakuman, Kiyosumi would have been bumped into third at the end of the first hanchan, their actual gap to second (Eisui) would've been less than 8000. Meanwhile, their gap to Himematsu would be reduced from 31800 to 12900. In the scenario that Eisui gets two yakumans, Eisui would be far in first but Kiyosumi's gap to second would be only 4900.

If you don't attribute any defense/intel improvement to Nodoka from seeing Hatsumi's yakumans against Himematsu, then certainly the preferred scenario would be Himematsu getting hit in the first hanchan twice and it'd overall be a losing proposition (gap to Himematzu (then second) would be reduced to 1100, but gap to Eisui (then first) balloons ridiculously to over 80000). However, in the scenario that Nodoka improves and shuts Hatsumi out in the second hanchan, the tradeoff is more than worth temporarily dropping to third following the end of the first hanchan (in the one yakuman scenario), because of Kiyosumi's strong performance relative to Himematsu in the second hanchan. Assuming all other rounds being roughly equal, the final outcome would've been Kiyosumi up +8000, Eisui up +11900, and Himematsu down -19900 relative to their actual scores as happened in the story. This would equate to Kiyosumi comfortably maintaining second while shrinking the gap to first (still Himematsu, actually) down to the trivial amount of 1100.

[Archaeon]

What's the positive and negative score for each player in the fourth match?

How much points does each of them gain and loss?

[night_sentinel]

I had too much time on my hand and I actually checked the tally of those yakumans. I put all the tables there.
http://randomwalloftext.com/2014/03/...de-8-fortress/

Still though, why do I have a feeling that you guys are overestimating Hatsumi. Stopping her from getting that yakuman is not that hard. Even without Sae. The problem is you need to take out Nodoka as well from the match to keep it balanced.

Actually the same thing will happen if you take out Nodoka. Sae's hax will triumph.
And if you take out Hatsumi, Nodoka's will.
Its a rock, paper, scissors guys.
Here is my hypothetical power interaction.
http://randomwalloftext.com/2014/03/...odoka-scissor/

[Triple_R]

I'm inclined to think that without Sae blockading her, Hatsumi probably gets a yakuman in one of those blockading hands (of course, you don't know which one it would be, so in fairness to Sae, picking which hands to take a risk on could be a tricky thing).

I'm very skeptical of Hatsumi's power giving her a yakuman on all of those hands, though - I mean, wouldn't that make her an even bigger threat than Teru? It seems rather extreme to give a secondary character a power that severe. Not to mention that if her power is that severe, you'd think Hatsumi would be hyped a bit more. I'd also expect Hisa to really grill it in to Nodoka, "Look, I don't care what you believe or don't believe, this is one game where you are not discarding Wind tiles. Comprende?"

[The Green One]

I don't think Hatsumi gets it on all of them. Her power will set up the hand but it's still up to her to complete it. It must of happened often enough that the other schools in the tournament know about it and are specifically watching for it. Still it shouldn't be completed every time, that would be a bit strange.

[teja208]

I also don't think Hatsumi can get her yakuman all the time she's in north seat, but frequent enough to burst someone in the Kagoshima finals as seen in episode 1 of this season.

[Chiaki_chan]

Originally Posted by HandofFate

When Nodoka goes into that flushed red face mood, isn't that when she goes into total computer mood, and stops thinking or doubting, and just plays exactly like a computer?

maybe.... I love see Nodoka-chan like that so cute

It proves that she can blush for anything other than when she is with Saki

[Requiem-x]

Originally Posted by Chiaki_chan

maybe.... I love see Nodoka-chan like that so cute

It proves that she can blush for anything other than when she is with Saki

I don't remember her blushing before, so maybe she's just thinking about how this is gonna help her stay together with Saki.

[tjalorak]

Originally Posted by Sol Falling

The thing you're neglecting here is the 11900 points Hatsumi fed to Kinue in E4 so that Kinue would stay in dealer and give Hatsumi a second chance at her North round.

I don't 'neglect' it. Without Sae, Hatsumi's hand is not sealed. IIRC, she was in iishanten but got several rounds of worthless draw after worthless draw with Sae there. Without Sae, I judge that regardless of whether she successfully finishes that hand, she's confident enough in her hand that she won't bail or play into Kinue. E1-E3 gains basically are net zero.

Although it's true that, with one yakuman, Kiyosumi would have been bumped into third at the end of the first hanchan, their actual gap to second (Eisui) would've been less than 8000.

As mentioned, I judge that Eisui either gets a yakuman or nothing out of that hand. So our analysis differs from that first assumption.

If you don't attribute any defense/intel improvement to Nodoka from seeing Hatsumi's yakumans against Himematsu

I don't. This isn't a slight against Nodoka; it's just Nodoka's mahjong style. It has been hammered over and over that Nodoka never changes her play style in response to player superstitions / trends and only plays logically based on tiles. Given her rejection of luck (at least with disregard of luck as a controllable factor and belief in statistical probability or at least, an idea that's similar to "return to the mean"), she will not treat the first yakuman any different than signs of a second. She will treat both the same and every successive sign of East and North pons the same as well. Yakuman will always be considered a possibility so long as the discards seem to support that it's possible, but it will not be treated as a highly probable outcome and other more probable possibilities of Eisui's hand may be honitsu or even just whatever given that she'll have a guaranteed seat wind yaku (North).

I don't think Nodoka will be a bad defensive player. Granted, everyone else at that table just knows Hatsumi's power, but Nodoka's style means she'll always consider the possibility of the yakuman so long as the discards do not rule it out. I also don't think she will change her defense in future hands in response to any of Hatsumi's successful yakumans in previous hands, only in response to whether the discards in that hand seem to support a high enough probability that the EV of allowing Hatsumi to (possibly) complete a yakuman is enough to logically convince Nodoka to bail (probably dependent on her own calculations w.r.t. her own EV). So no, no improvement in defense other than the usual calculations.

[Sol Falling]

Originally Posted by tjalorak

I don't 'neglect' it. Without Sae, Hatsumi's hand is not sealed. IIRC, she was in iishanten but got several rounds of worthless draw after worthless draw with Sae there. Without Sae, I judge that regardless of whether she successfully finishes that hand, she's confident enough in her hand that she won't bail or play into Kinue. E1-E3 gains basically are net zero.

I don't see how you got the calculation that Kiyosumi's gap to second would ever be 20000 then. Regardless of whether Eisui gets one yakuman or two in the first hanchan, Kiyosumi never falls behind second more than 7700 points.

I don't. This isn't a slight against Nodoka; it's just Nodoka's mahjong style. It has been hammered over and over that Nodoka never changes her play style in response to player superstitions / trends and only plays logically based on tiles. Given her rejection of luck (at least with disregard of luck as a controllable factor and belief in statistical probability or at least, an idea that's similar to "return to the mean"), she will not treat the first yakuman any different than signs of a second. She will treat both the same and every successive sign of East and North pons the same as well. Yakuman will always be considered a possibility so long as the discards seem to support that it's possible, but it will not be treated as a highly probable outcome and other more probable possibilities of Eisui's hand may be honitsu or even just whatever given that she'll have a guaranteed seat wind yaku (North).

I don't think Nodoka will be a bad defensive player. Granted, everyone else at that table just knows Hatsumi's power, but Nodoka's style means she'll always consider the possibility of the yakuman so long as the discards do not rule it out. I also don't think she will change her defense in future hands in response to any of Hatsumi's successful yakumans in previous hands, only in response to whether the discards in that hand seem to support a high enough probability that the EV of allowing Hatsumi to (possibly) complete a yakuman is enough to logically convince Nodoka to bail (probably dependent on her own calculations w.r.t. her own EV). So no, no improvement in defense other than the usual calculations.

There are hints placed in the dialogue which suggest at least an awareness towards the things that Hisa suggested to her. Aside from noting the unlikelihood of being able to call North and East everytime someone sits North, Nodoka identifies Hatsumi's yakuman tenpai as coincidentally corrobating Hisa's suggestions. The way the match played out, Nodoka only ever saw one Shousuushii tenpai prior to the round where she got hit with the yakuman dealer penalty; however, if it had been three, I'm not so sure Nodoka might not have played differently. This is not taking into account how changed point/rank differentials (Eisui much closer, Himematsu much less further away) might've influenced Nodoka's decision making process; actually, when you're on defense it does not make so much sense to use EVs because 1) you don't know your opponents' exact hands and 2) when defending, it is much more preferable to depend on certainties rather than probabilities.

In any case, the question is not so much whether Nodoka would've stopped dealing North and East tiles (which I agree is unlikely) but whether she would have locked herself into the offensive position of riichi on her dealer turns. In the case that she does so more conservatively, a lot more options open up even if Hatsumi does end up in tenpai. Among them are: remaining in damaten, thereby not notifying her other opponents to be on guard against her and increasing the chance of ron; broadcasting an obviously cheap hand, so that other players might decide it is less expensive to deal into her than allowing Eisui to complete a(nother) yakuman; or dealing into another player's broadcasted cheap hand, since I imagine this to be the most efficient/effective strategy to defend against Hatsumi if her reaching tenpai is given in the absence of a sealing power like Sae's ability.

[HandofFate]

Just because Nodoka feed her those two wind tiles, doesn't necessary mean she would taken damage though right? In the early rounds, it was to the chagrin of the other two players. Nodaka was pretty much griefing them because the other two were also now at risk of dealing into the yakuman.

[Archaeon]

I just rewatch Saki Achiga. In Saki Achiga episode 16(3.33-3.41),Teru said there are about 10 players who can stop Awai's double riichi. Who are they?

First two images comment come from Sumire. Third or last one said by Teru.




Teru is obviously one of them. Shizuno is able to stop Awai's double riichi too but the above comment by Teru was made before it was clear Shizuno can stop Awai so I'm not sure when Teru said that,she include Shizuno in one of 10 people that can stop Awai.

I think Himeko is also one of the 10 since the above comment by Teru was made after Himeko make a ron on Awai.

Manga reader,please remember to use spoiler.

[ices]

@Archaeon, Well, I'm not a manga reader, but considering the latest episode where there are people like Toyone who could ron her opponent in a riichi battle, I'm sure that if Awai and Toyone were in the same table, Toyone could stop Awai's double riichi.

[tjalorak]

I apologize. had forgotten Nodoka started off with that 12k win. A yakuman in 1st hanchan of East 4 leads to Kiyosumi dropping to 3rd and only a 14,600 point gap.

There are hints placed in the dialogue which suggest at least an awareness towards the things that Hisa suggested to her. Aside from noting the unlikelihood of being able to call North and East everytime someone sits North, Nodoka identifies Hatsumi's yakuman tenpai as coincidentally corrobating Hisa's suggestions.

Perhaps. I would like to think otherwise but I'm inclined to think she treats Hatsumi's yakuman the same as Saki's Rinshan Kaihou, which she also calls 'coincidence' despite the many times she's played her.

however, if it had been three, I'm not so sure Nodoka might not have played differently.

As above, Nodoka does not seem inclined to change her style in response to player superstitions. In fact, changing her style in response to certain players would seem to defeat the purpose of Nodoka's digital style. Given that she has played Saki consistently without changing, I should imagine that even a couple more yakuman would not be likely to change her mind.

This is not taking into account how changed point/rank differentials (Eisui much closer, Himematsu much less further away) might've influenced Nodoka's decision making process

IIRC, she does not seem to actually take into account relative point standings, which would require her to discard EV analysis for outside factors. For example, in the Nagano prefectural qualifier, she continued to push forward for higher scoring hands (due to higher EV), playing her own style, even while in the lead instead of just taking the higher probability but lower value (lower total EV though) hand to keep the round moving quickly. As Vice Captain, Nodoka really hasn't had to deal with this issue and her approach seems to be just play her style and steadily pick up points.

actually, when you're on defense it does not make so much sense to use EVs because 1) you don't know your opponents' exact hands and 2) when defending, it is much more preferable to depend on certainties rather than probabilities.

Ahaha. Well, this is Saki. Players are surprisingly good at being able to read opponents' hands and then discard correctly (when in real life, it's extremely hard to figure out). Given that she's constantly calculating and re-calculating based on the tiles, IMO, unless it's esoteric / illogical, Nodoka could and would know what an opponent is going for. We see it again and again that even relatively 'normal' national-tier players (i.e. Kurumi) run down the possible hands based on the discards, and they're not as good as Nodoka.

When you've already made the decision to bail, yes, it's better to deal in certainties re: safe tiles. But in order to make a decision on whether to bail, Nodoka has to guess at the opponent's EV: their hand value, hand type, number of shanten (probability of going out on that hand).

In any case, the question is not so much whether Nodoka would've stopped dealing North and East tiles (which I agree is unlikely) but whether she would have locked herself into the offensive position of riichi on her dealer turns.

I'm just not seeing why she'd play differently than normal. Her normal style already takes into account whether a riichi would be worth it and whether a riichi would be worth it would depend on her own EV calculations and her guesses as to whether others are approaching tenpai. But I think this probably depends on whether one thinks Nodoka would change her style in response to a strong player superstition.

Of your suggested follow ups, the only one I can see Nodoka actually doing would be damaten wins. Nodoka is not the type to deliberately play in nor the type to deliberately form a broadcasted cheap hand just to get the hand over with. She's almost notorious in not working with her opponents and just focusing on 'playing her own style.' I think she even says something to this effect in the beginning of this VC round. For the latter options, you'd need a player like Haru or Kurumi to sit at the table. I was about to suggest Kinue would work with Miyamori but then I remembered that in some calculations, it would be in her interest for Eisui to gain a yakuman tsumo (or yakuman ron on 3rd).

[King-Slayer]

Toyone is beyond cute this episode. I also really liked the anime added scenes with Saki and the Kasumi giving a legend similar to Toyone. Very good episode for a flashback one.

[The Green One]

No offense to Toyone fans, but this flashback dragged on waaaayyyy too long and threw off the pace of the episode as it gobbled up at least half of the episode. Naturally this is purely my opinion. Hopefully the pace will be more smooth next time.

[Requiem-x]

Toyone love will increase tenfold after this episode.

Spoiler for Spoiler:

A pretty nasty set of skills, an intimidating presence in the table, and able to make the cutest faces, how could you not like this girl? Once again, Miyamori gets quite the flashback, taking over half the episode, in fact, and just like the previous one, it's great, as it reveals a few nice details about the team, like the fact Aislinn just recently learned how the game even works (I had actually forgotten that one), and the fact that poor Toyone was a loner until very recently. And once again, excellent soundtrack, enough to make you want to close your eyes and relax.

Even Nodoka got to act like someone with emotions, making her look quite cute.

Next time, is back to hardcore mahjong, and from the looks of it, Miyanaga imouto is about to pull a good one. I guess Kasumi will also do something.

Originally Posted by The Green One

No offense to Toyone fans, but this flashback dragged on waaaayyyy too long and threw off the pace of the episode as it gobbled up at least half of the episode. Naturally this is purely my opinion. Hopefully the pace will be more smooth next time.

Sorry, but it seems Ritz just loves Miyamori.

[King-Slayer]

Originally Posted by Requiem-x

Sorry, but it seems Ritz just loves Miyamori.

so do the anime staff. and I can never have enough Toyone so