Mobile Suit Gundam 00 - Episode 04 Discussion / Poll

[Skane]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

What you are forgetting, is that under your theory, the entire plan will fall apart if CB attack Union forces. And there is no reason why CB wouldn't attack Union forces. (It is as likely as anything else, so it has to be planned for)

In fact, one of the supposed 12 countermeasures CB planned probably included an attack on the Union forces. In this situation, Venezuela gains independence and America becomes a puppet state. That would hardly be an agreeable result for president Brian, as such he could not have been in on this.

The 2 most likely outcomes was America invading Venezuela, or America getting its power cut off. Such polarised results means the two factions can't work together in a way that they know could cause one or another. Unless someone got spies within CB, or this was CB-orchestrated, the attack on Venezuela by Gundams cannot be relied upon.

First off, it's not my theory. I am merely trying to see whether the Advisor's thoughts are plausible. Also, I mentioned Ms Wang for a reason. If Celestial Being attacks the Union, then their stance becomes a mockery. Taribia is the instigator in this situation, and under the "rules" of the "Xanatos Roulette", Bryan and/or the Taribian PM is well aware of this and played it to their benefit.

The whole point of the "Xanatos Roulette" is that the plan is not ironclad (and indeed, part of the fun is in the wringing of the protagonists (or antagonists...) on what they could have done differently in the past to prevent it) and can in theory, fall completely apart. What makes the trope so intriguing is that the manipulator has an absurd amount of foresight and the pieces, done well, give a sense of "Oh! You magnificent bastard!" feeling to it when the plan is executed in completion, and just as planned.

Also, did you read the entry in its entirety? I ask this because some of the points you raise make a "Xanatos Roulette" what it is. The entry on "Xanatos Gambit" should prove useful as well.

Cheers.

[Geass]

Just something to point out, according to the map that shows Taribia as being Venezuela, they've also absorbed Guyana in the future.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Skane

First off, it's not my theory. I am merely trying to see whether the Advisor's thoughts are plausible. Also, I mentioned Ms Wang for a reason. If Celestial Being attacks the Union, then their stance becomes a mockery. Taribia is the instigator in this situation, and under the "rules" of the "Xanatos Roulette", Bryan and/or the Taribian PM is well aware of this and played it to their benefit.

The whole point of the "Xanatos Roulette" is that the plan is not ironclad (and indeed, part of the fun is in the wringing of the protagonists (or antagonists...) on what they could have done differently in the past to prevent it) and can in theory, fall completely apart. What makes the trope so intriguing is that the manipulator has an absurd amount of foresight and the pieces, done well, give a sense of "Oh! You magnificent bastard!" feeling to it when the plan is executed in completion, and just as planned.

Also, did you read the entry in its entirety? I ask this because some of the points you raise make a "Xanatos Roulette" what it is. The entry on "Xanatos Gambit" should prove useful as well.

Cheers.

I read both.
The point I am making, is that America can't possibly agree to all this, because they have far more to lose than Venezuela if it all goes wrong. And the final result was hardly worth the moblisation of both the American and the combined Union forces.

Venezuela had what happened as an emergency plan, but NOT with American consent. It isn't worth the trouble for America to play along. The gain is too small for them.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Karnot

How so ? Its quite natural, actually. And the fact is - if even one of those would ally with Russia - the other will instantly demand their place in the alliance, so as not to be played against.

That's because anyone who's familiar with Asian geopolitics would realize that they're too much rivals of one another for any alliance to form.

Originally Posted by Karnot

Not gonna happen any time soon. Never, i hope. US doesnt have allies, only slaves and servants. And China knows that well.

While the US hasn't treated their allies particularly well in the near past, such a policy is unlikely to last indefinitely. Besides, I'm not saying that such a union is likely, it just is more likely than a union of Russia, India and China.

Originally Posted by Skane

It is plausible for them to predict Celestial Being's reaction as explained by Ms Wang. In theory, it is possible that they chose to play the fool in order to get an appropriate response out of Celestial Being. It does sound convoluted, but that is the whole point of the "Xanatos Roulette" trope.

When the presidents of Taribia and the US spoke at the end of the episode, it didn't sound like they were in collusion.

Originally Posted by brightman

Well, IMO you're wrong, since those federations were fully consolidated states, each with a central government. The blocs in 00, as shown in Ep 4 (now that I've finally seen it), are based on closely-knit economic and military alliances.

Functionally, there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two. In alliances, member states don't get attacked for trying to secede (then again, they don't have to secede in the first place).

[Karnot]

While the US hasn't treated their allies particularly well in the near past, such a policy is unlikely to last indefinitely.

It lasted for 200 years, and will last till its destroyed (which i hope will be soon).

That's because anyone who's familiar with Asian geopolitics would realize that they're too much rivals of one another for any alliance to form.

And ? You're still clinging to that "dog eat dog" Western mentality. You just naturally assume that everyone are as egoistic and demanding as you are.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Karnot

And ? You're still clinging to that "dog eat dog" Western mentality. You just naturally assume that everyone are as egoistic and demanding as you are.

My "assumptions" are based on what the countries have done, and what they're currently doing, both diplomatically and militarily. Russia's publicly known military policy in regards to a Chinese incursion is particularly eye-opening. Do you have any facts to support your assertion that I'm incorrect?

Originally Posted by Karnot

It lasted for 200 years, and will last till its destroyed (which i hope will be soon).

Why the hostility towards the US?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

Functionally, there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two. In alliances, member states don't get attacked for trying to secede (then again, they don't have to secede in the first place).

You would get attack too, if your act of independence takes away the entire energy supply of your former allies. I though I made it clear that Venezuela controls the pipe that channels electricity from the space elevator to America?

Venezuela did what they did because they know Union would HAVE to attack them in order to survive. And they counted on CB to defend them. It didn't happen, but they got the minor prize instead.

[4Tran]

I'm aware of the reasons why the Union attacked, but that doesn't change the fact that alliances don't work that way.

[Marsala]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

I'm aware of the reasons why the Union attacked, but that doesn't change the fact that alliances don't work that way.

The Union is probably tighter than a traditional alliance. Its very name invokes the nickname of the northern states in the U.S. Civil War. Secession may be outright illegal, at least in the way that Taribia attempted.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Marsala

The Union is probably tighter than a traditional alliance. Its very name invokes the nickname of the northern states in the U.S. Civil War. Secession may be outright illegal, at least in the way that Taribia attempted.

In which case it's no different from a federation (or outright hegemony); which was sort of my point to begin with.

[kari-no-sugata]

Originally Posted by Skane

The... theory mentioned by the Advisor-lady towards the end of the episode reminded me of the following trope, the "Xanatos Roulette" in which a person or people manipulate events on an absurd scale.

The implication here is that Bryan and the Taribian PM were in league with each other from the beginning and plotted together to get an end result that was beneficial to both of then while playing Celestial Being for a fool.

Heh.

I know you're not saying this is what actually did happen - ie "it's just a theory".

We the viewers do get a strong hint though - I think it's just after the scene with the news report showing Venezuela you see US president Brian wondering "which side they'll chose" (or something like that - haven't seen the subs). Basically, he's wondering which side CB will chose. He's not certain, but seems prepared for either eventuality.

[DarkMirage]

I don't thing there's any conspiracy involved. The Taribian Prime Minister certainly foreseen both possibilities and had long decided that if CB attacked Taribia, he would ask the Union for assistance.

He couldn't lose either way.

If CB defended Taribia, then he would successfully gain full control over a major part of the solar energy system for free.

If CB attacked Taribia, he had already made up his mind to immediately ask the Americans for help. This would effectively render any further anti-American actions impossible, but ultimately he stood to benefit from it. Clearly there are a lot of anti-American Taribian politicians so, compared to the rest of them, the Prime Minster now owes a debt to the Americans and is thus more likely to behave better. Therefore he now has American backing for his rule. At the same time, he can claim to his people that he "did his best" in trying to secure Taribian independence and blame the plan's failure on Celestial Being.

I don't think President Bryan was involved in this whole thing prior to the secession announcement. The Taribian Prime Minister probably decided to pull this off because it can't actually hurt him either way.

And Marina's advisor gives off super villain vibes.

[Sinestra]

Im actually surprised that we have seen a super soldier this early on. Its always a given that a country has secret experiements going on that are kind of shaddy. But if we saw one i thought maybe not till almost half way through the series. This is interesting even we have only seen one given enough time and a successful capture of a Gundam we could see a whole squade of those little test tube soldiers

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by 4Tran

I'm aware of the reasons why the Union attacked, but that doesn't change the fact that alliances don't work that way.

Someone who is your ally wouldn't threaten to cut off your electricity, potentially killing hundreds of thousands of civilians. Unless you think blackmail is standard ally behaviour?

As far as Venezuela and America was concerned, the alliance was finished when Venezuela did what it did. There was no intention of attempting a peaceful, more friendly separation, because Talibia (easier to spell) was aiming for a bigger pie; complete domination over America.

Any belief that this conflict was about independence or freedom is just hot air. Talibia wanted power, and it hoped CB will help it gain the power. Are you asking America to play nice? Talibia can decrease the power supply gradually each day, until America either collapse or surrender. This is a hostage situation, with the entire civilian population of the country as the stakes.
When someone is strangling you by the neck, you only have three choices: Surrender, fight, or die.

The question you need to ask is, does an Alliance work in the way Talibia behaved?

More importantly, what DID you think America should have done in this situation? You don't seem to think negotiation was impossible, so how would you negotiate then? I am curious.

[withered_joy]

After watching Mendoi-Conclave's subs, I decided to give the episode an 8. I liked the political stuff, and surprisingly Marina did not get on my nerves too badly. It is hinted that she'll improve...and I hope she'll improve. Right now she's an amateur since she had just been reinstated to power not long ago, it's natural for her to seem a bit dim-witted.

...If Setsuna unfortunately becomes her romantic interest...that would make him a KING?? Uh... I don't really like the idea. I really hope he's just some long lost relative kidnapped to fight a war but such wishful thinking is unlikely to happen. *Sigh* I hope they don't pair him up with anyone...*blabbers on about unimportant fangirl stuff*

I wish AEU will do something else besides sitting in their conference room and watching their TV within two episodes, because right now they seem very insignificant when compared to the Union and HRL. I hope there's more to Patrick than his retarded arrogance.

...Also, after watching the extended preview I am now convinced that Allelujah has an alternate personality. Wow. A bunch of psychos...fascinating.

However, I have to agree with some people that the conversations about CB and the part where people hundreds of kilometers away continue another's conversation is getting old. Real old. It's nice to have a well-thought out background, but it's starting to get cheesy in the way they portray it (or rather, it was cheesy to begin with but I somehow tolerated three episodes of corny parts)... Blah. Next episode is practically promising us character development, so I'm looking forward to it.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

More importantly, what DID you think America should have done in this situation? You don't seem to think negotiation was impossible, so how would you negotiate then? I am curious.

As far as I'm concerned, the Union is a hegemony, so the US should have done exactly what they did in the show. This is as important for securing their energy as it is to preserve the Union.

However, as I said earlier, that's not how an alliance works. An implict right of any member of an alliance is the right to withdraw from it if they want to (i.e. France from NATO); if they cannot do so, then the political arrangement is something quite different. If the Union was functionally an alliance, then they may criticize Taribia, but it isn't sufficient excuse for attacking them (at least not right away). The Union's main recourse would be to renegotiate the rights to the orbital elevator - something like the Union maintaining control of the elevator and the territory immediately surrounding it and a guarantee of the energy delivery from the elevator in exchange for recognition of Taribia's sovereign rights. This would be similar to the arrangement that the Panama Canal operated under until quite recently.

Originally Posted by DarkMirage

I don't thing there's any conspiracy involved. The Taribian Prime Minister certainly foreseen both possibilities and had long decided that if CB attacked Taribia, he would ask the Union for assistance.

He couldn't lose either way.

Arguably, both he and Taribia lost a lot. Whatever autonomy that they enjoyed in the past can now be rescinded at will by the US, and they've lost a lot of prestige on the international stage as they've proven themselves to be subservient to a greater power.

Originally Posted by withered_joy

...If Setsuna unfortunately becomes her romantic interest...that would make him a KING??

Her husband would be a Prince Consort (like Prince Philip) under the British monarchy system. Only a ruling monarch would be king.

Originally Posted by withered_joy

I wish AEU will do something else besides sitting in their conference room and watching their TV within two episodes, because right now they seem very insignificant when compared to the Union and HRL. I hope there's more to Patrick than his retarded arrogance.

I believe that the AEU is supposed to play a much more muted role in this show (or at least in the early going). They are shown to be the least advanced of the three blocs, and they don't even show up in the OP.

[Matrim]

This series is really getting worse, IMO. The political intrigues are hilariously bad. If the CBs are so much against secession and rebels (how does secede from an alliance anyway?) and want to stop war, the easiest way would be to help one of the big three conquer the whole world and help them get rid of rebellions for a while, any other way would simply not work in the long run. The country of Marina still has reserves of oil? In the 24th century? And since there was turmoil they did not elect a new government or made a coup or became communists, etc but willingly reverted to monarchy? OK, now that's realism indeed. Venez...oops, Taribia was anti-american and now it won't be, even though there will be union troops in there. Why exactly?
As I said before - they sould either come up with new regional conflicts or they should have simply set the conflict in the 21st, not 24th century.

Real IRA decided to stop fighting for no reason other than the CBs actions somewhere else, as I expected.

Still none of the characters has shown any depth whatsoever, maybe because they are too busy with all these pretentious conversations which repeat Celestial Being every few seconds. And a new, dramatically improved FLAG as early as the fourth episode. Why?

This Saji fellow reminds me of a harem anime main character, every time I see him, I picture him desperately looking for the group of females madly in love with him that are supposed to be in the series but are not.

At least Marina is not all knowing and capable from the start but the way things are going now, she might be a great leader by episode 15 which would be just stupid.

[Virtue]

Something strange is, why don't they build more of those solar energy elevators?

[Anh_Minh]

I'm too lazy to quote, but here are a few thoughts.

Re: possible compromise between Taribia and US:
- The US gets as much energy as it wants
- Taribia gets as much energy as it wants
- Taribia isn't officially part of the Union, and is relatively free from interference on the domestic front, but won't act against the Union in the world at large
- the increase in Taribia's share is taken out of the shares of the other "little countries" of the Union, but who cares about them?


Re: Xanatos roulette:
I think it's possible. The US would have wanted to see what the CB would do,
and a chance to capture a Gundam. Bryan could also have predicted how the CB would react, and wagered on that. The risk wasn't that great. Four gundams aren't enough to occupy a country.

The Taribians could have been manipulated, or maybe the president had some kind of deal.

The CB may well have been aware of it, but decided that attacking the Taribians was the best move for now all the same. It's not like they really lost anything, and the game isn't nearly done yet.

[4Tran]

Originally Posted by Virtue

Something strange is, why don't they build more of those solar energy elevators?

They're too expensive and resource-intensive to construct. Not only would they be (by far) the largest construction projects undertaken by any government, but it likely takes decades to build one - the AEU's elevator is at least ten years behind the schedule of the HRL's.