Brexit Vote

[Endscape]

All that is true, but the UK will still extend, because the alternative is not only horrible, but politically unspinnable. At least if they extend, the EU boogeyman can still be used to heap blame on.

The EU wants this over with, but I don't think they can force the matter. And in any case, this whole messed up incident will have served to reinforce to other countries that leaving the EU is a bad idea that isn't worth it, so at least the EU has reached one of its goals.

[Botan_TM]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Yeah, but I don't think the EU will be that happy about the idea to extend A50 when there is no clear path/plan for the UK parliament to take.

At this point extending A50 would be like delaying a foreclose on somebody who have no job and even seems to have no idea where to look for one, still have a dumpster fire in backyard and often blames you for his problems.

Technically you could agree for delay, but what for? There is no sight situation will change in near future.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Endscape

It's one thing to have another referendum (and that would have it's own problems too) but they cannot just go against what the people have voted for, even if it is stupid or they were lied to, because that would be going against democracy itself.

Most likely they'll just extend Article 50 until they're ready.

the thing with Representative Democracy is that the Representatives are suppose to use their best judgement to govern. If the Representatives feel voters are wrong they should overrule the voters.

Democracy should not mean going over a cliff at 100 mph even if the majority voted for it.

Representative should use their best judgement and explain their decision to the voters. The Voters can exercise their democratic rights by voting them out if they disagree with the Representatives.

[Kakurin]

So Parliament has voted for the Brady amendment. Well, seems like the elected representatives are also keen on going over the cliff.

EDIT: Boris Johnson provided me with the laugh of the day. Says EU will be compelled to renegotiate as the UK is "a huge trading partner". Uhm, so this doesn't go in the other direction as well or what?

[Anh_Minh]

So... Now what?

(And what is there even to negotiate? May couldn't achieve anything when she had some credibility, what could she achieve now?)

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

So... Now what?

(And what is there even to negotiate? May couldn't achieve anything when she had some credibility, what could she achieve now?)

The winners in all of this are the hardcore Brexiters. With May having swung sides on the backstop the UK is standing with one foot in a no-deal Brexit - which is exactly what the hardcore fanatics want.

[Ithekro]

They want out. The ECC was as far as they wanted to go when the UK signed on in the 70s. The EU is a government over the Crown and some won't stand for that if they don't have to.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

They want out. The ECC was as far as they wanted to go when the UK signed on in the 70s. The EU is a government over the Crown and some won't stand for that if they don't have to.

This is simply a wrong statement. The basis for all policies and institutions those Brexiteers want to get out of already existed at the time they joined the EEC (not ECC). The Commission, the Parliament, the ECJ, the Common Agriculture Policy, the goal of a single internal market. All of that.

The simple truth is, when they joined the UK was the sick man of Western Europe (hence one main driver of the completion of the single market was actually Mrs Thatcher) and they used the EEC - and later the EU - as a vehicle to rebuild their economy. Now that these times have long gone by they have forgotten all the advantages that membership offered them and in a delusion of past grandeur think they can live in splendid isolation.

[James Rye]

With Brady amendment getting through with 16 votes (lol), the Eu will shiver and quake in their boots, fall on their knees and beg the almighty UK to sign any deal they want. xDDD

Seriously though, May knows the EU cannot reopen the negotiation else the ERG and others will demand new stuff over and over again. Plus they need that insurance policy to keep the GFA alive. So this is nothing else but another tick the clock down move. Once May gets the rejection she knows she gonna get, many days will be lost, she returns to parliament and tries with her Plan A again which again will not get through. So after 13th February the UK will still be no step closer to a deal then before.

In other words, hard Brexit it gonna be. And a real hard one too, a chaotic one. Because I doubt the EU is willing to give an extension with the Eu elections coming up soon and the UK parliament being so ripped apart and the government so not in control of their own MPs. You can get nothing through that parliament right now. Nothing.

[Dextro]

Originally Posted by James Rye

With Brady amendment getting through with 16 votes (lol), the Eu will shiver and quake in their boots, fall on their knees and beg the almighty UK to sign any deal they want. xDDD

Seriously though, May knows the EU cannot reopen the negotiation else the ERG and others will demand new stuff over and over again. Plus they need that insurance policy to keep the GFA alive. So this is nothing else but another tick the clock down move. Once May gets the rejection she knows she gonna get, many days will be lost, she returns to parliament and tries with her Plan A again which again will not get through. So after 13th February the UK will still be no step closer to a deal then before.

In other words, hard Brexit it gonna be. And a real hard one too, a chaotic one. Because I doubt the EU is willing to give an extension with the Eu elections coming up soon and the UK parliament being so ripped apart and the government so not in control of their own MPs. You can get nothing through that parliament right now. Nothing.

It's worse than the EU not wanting to give an extension, the bloody MPs voted against asking for one! That's how insane this whole scenario is right now!

I think the only silver lining from this is that Boris Johnson interview today that gave me one of the most hilarious moments of this whole kerfuffle when the interviewer called him delusional.

[Anh_Minh]

Well, hopefully that means that in april, we can move on to the next phase. Whatever that is. Instead of getting stuck in limbo for who knows how long.

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

So... Now what?

Another new season of "Theresa May Humiliates Herself" has been green lit.

Also, like it was clear in December, the UK is going to crash out with no deal. So things are going to be "fun" in 2 months time.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

(And what is there even to negotiate? May couldn't achieve anything when she had some credibility, what could she achieve now?)

She could always achieve a worse deal.

Spain had indicated they would very much like to bring the issue of Gibraltar up to the forefront and get what they want out of that, France and other EU members would very much like to make demands on fishing rights that they felt were far too generous in the older withdrawal agreement, etc.

The EU already said there will be no renegotiation, but on the off chance that they do decide to go back and make a new deal, its going to be far less generous to the UK, and a lot harsher than the current deal on the table.

[Key Board]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

So... Now what?

(And what is there even to negotiate? May couldn't achieve anything when she had some credibility, what could she achieve now?)

Unintentionally instigate a 2nd Scottish independence referendum

[Ithekro]

Oh a bitter England....that couldn't lead to resentment and conflict in Europe or anything.................

[James Rye]

I think UK, or whatever becomes of it after Brexit, will rejoin EU later on. Question is how much later, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. The longer they wait the more their economy will be hurt because you cannot replace a 500 million free trade block overnight with something else. Plus the british government is lacking the people to work towards several new trade deals all at once and the ones they will be able to work towards after Brexit will become much harsher once the other side knows the UK side is desperate for any kind of deal to prove that Brexit was no mistake.
One thing that is clear though if UK rejoins then they will not get another Brit rebate and probably will have to exchange pound for Euro as well and ofc Schengen order of free movement. But who knows? Maybe they will succeed and trade freely all over the world, jetting from one amazing trade deal to another. I honestly doubt that though.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

They want out. The ECC was as far as they wanted to go when the UK signed on in the 70s. The EU is a government over the Crown and some won't stand for that if they don't have to.

The sweet lies fed by Farage, Breitbart, the Brexiters, etc...

[Kakurin]

Amusing to see how many Brexiters are angered by Tusks comment. Don't they realise that they are basically publicly conceding that they pushed forward Brexit without having any semblance of a plan?

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by James Rye

I think UK, or whatever becomes of it after Brexit, will rejoin EU later on. Question is how much later, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc.

I don't know about that. A deal like Norway's? Maybe. But I don't think we'll soon want to let them vote in European affairs again, not to mention the veto. And whatever new treaties we sign with them, I hope it'll have better defined exit clauses than the ones we have now...

[milan kyuubi]

YouTube

https://youtu.be/o3_RwLpvE9M

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[James Rye]

And Labour split. Well, lets see if some Tories split as well in the coming weeks once hard brexit becomes more and more likely to happen.