2011-03-09, 17:30 | Link #22281 |
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I think there's a good chance it was. It would be an act of magic to revive Beatrice (an entire family vanished! Everyone gets a happy ending! And it was all Beatrice! Just ask the survivors, hehehe...) and would seem to explain the prior knowledge she has with the message bottles (as well as why she'd write them). It also gives a reason why the fake twilights would appear on the later gameboards at all.
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2011-03-09, 17:38 | Link #22282 | |
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2011-03-09, 18:12 | Link #22284 |
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Concerning one of the point I wrote about.
Of course it's easy to write that the message bottle is found since it can only come true if it is found. But you cannot predict who finds it, when they finds it and how they found it. Within arc 1's end we are told who finds it and when they found it. It's impossible to predict this beforehand. Even if the message bottle was written after all the Rokkenjima events it cannot have been written after it has been found, yet contains the information of when it was found. Edit : Weather forecast is arguably the least practical "science" that we still decide to use in society. It is rarely perfectly accurate even a day before. Another Edit : When referring to how Battler acted on the boat, I'm referring to his fear of falling and the commotion he causes because of that. Kawabata didn't forget it. Surely the conversations on the boat can change since he didn't hear them, but that Battler freaked out and asked them to slow down seems to be a constant. One that the 1998 Kawabata didn't deny either. Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2011-03-09 at 18:22. |
2011-03-09, 18:40 | Link #22285 | |
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Really, the "problem" with pre-writing is you need some excuse as to how Beatrice "knew what was going to happen" but didn't cause it or fail to try to stop it. If she in fact did not know, that means one must explain away her actions through some other means. "A game was planned; the explosion was coincidentally similar to the game outcome (i.e. everyone "dies")" works... mostly.
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2011-03-09, 18:55 | Link #22286 |
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What if the explosion is part of the game/ vanishing act? That's not just a coincidence... Beatrice's plan would've ended up exactly the same as it really did, only without everyone dying. Beatrice presumably didn't realize that the explosion which made the plan perfect for making everyone vanish was also perfect for murdering everyone for real.
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2011-03-09, 19:28 | Link #22288 |
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Ange doesn't come to the island consistently because of her weak constitution, so it would actually be really dangerous to use her in anything plot-critical. It would have been safer to assume she wouldn't come and then have some out-of-narrative contingency plan to get her out of the way.
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2011-03-09, 20:28 | Link #22289 |
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The criticisms to the pre-writing approach are good. It'd really depend how many pieces of paper we're talking about here, and how it was all set up.
It also depends on how far in advance we could have known that Ange was not going to make it. --- Yasu has plenty of the qualities of a murderer. Odds are he/she was thrown from a cliff by the person who was supposed to love him/her, can't have children, and even if given all of the money in the world-- wouldn't be able to find any happiness. There are very few reasons to remain a servant after finding a horde of gold. They point, generally, to a sense of purposelessness. I think that denying Yasu created a large plot to kill, or denying that the Ushiromiya's are all basically would-be murderers, misses the point of Ep5 and Ep7. The obvious theory if they are written after, is that she's that author chick, living together with Battler after both of them "died" and were "reborn". There's probably something in Ep 8 that contradicts this. |
2011-03-09, 20:48 | Link #22290 | |||
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2011-03-09, 21:33 | Link #22291 |
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Alas, it's still in da moonspeak.
Also, and this isnt related to anything, but I'm curious - in EP8, pretty much everybody besides Bern / Lambda, Battler/Ange, Auau/ Erika is involved with fighting the pirate goat brigade, right? Do you actually see Zepar/Furfur ... helping? Random question is random, I know. |
2011-03-10, 00:08 | Link #22293 | |
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That was an evil pun. :3
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IIRC, there were some other characters that didn't fight much either... |
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2011-03-10, 08:33 | Link #22294 | |
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Everyone was trying to AVOID fighting the big scary goat navy with the big bitchy blue-haired pirate bitch by pretending to fight with each other. Gohda is the one who blows their cover.
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2011-03-10, 10:56 | Link #22295 | |||||
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Ootsuki says that the first message was found by the police right in front of Ange. I don't think he'd have any reason to lie and therefore the first finding is a fact stated by official sources. How could this be less anecdotal than this? This is practically the only official statement claimed by the police that we're actually aware of. Quote:
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In other words we need to accept that Beatrice planned something beforehand or knew something was going to happen or that something could happen. Unfortunately it's almost impossible to conclude with any certainty about how much she knew of what then actually happened. It could go from "She knew everyone would die" from a "She had a completely different plan and everyone died because something went wrong". Quote:
Dlanor's symbol of the two keys is the very same symbol in the Vatican's flag Gohda might not have caused the Rokkenjima incident by mistake as some speculated, but he did cause the golden land to reach a premature end because of his blunders!
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2011-03-10, 11:24 | Link #22296 | ||||
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That aside, the police aren't immune to hoax or error. Come on, this is the easiest hoax in the world to make up. It's right up there with saying the government gave me this report that proves aliens exist, but of course if you call and ask the government they'll deny it! And the fisherman thing? Come onnnnnnnnnn. Quote:
Oh, right. You don't. Skepticism is not unhealthy. The provenance of the message bottles is inherently suspicious. The only thing Ange ever proved is that the same person who wrote them wrote in Maria's diary. That identifies the author. Doesn't prove anything else. Nice random crack at me over something that's still not understood, too. Quote:
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Is it really crazy to question whether that imagined pattern is nothing more than a falsely-drawn conclusion? Perhaps, given Ryukishi's ability to blow it and lean on coincidence and happenstance. But if this were a good story, that'd be the first thing I would question about 1998's "evidence."
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2011-03-10, 11:55 | Link #22297 |
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Weren't the letters shown to be written by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary too? I mean... I guess Beatrice might've just done it for no reason at all, but I think it fits better if she was planning to fake everyone's deaths. It means the families left behind are reimbursed for the loss of an earner (and may later receive letters from their family member telling them that they're alive).
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2011-03-10, 12:03 | Link #22298 | |||
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How could he lie about something that can be easily checked? The police made that statement, it doesn't make sense to think otherwise. Quote:
The witch hunt phenomenon didn't begin if not several years later after the incident. So who the hell would create that first message? Only Beatrice could, but then again it was found soon after the incident so you just gain a few days at best. Why would she want to wait? To be more precise in her story telling? If that was really true why did she "kill" Eva then? This story doesn't provide any reason to believe Beatrice survived the incident. So you are basically denying the obvious because it's "suspicious" while all the other alternatives are far-fetched at best. Quote:
This story is full of holes. There is simply no way to make complete sense out of every single part of it in a satisfactory manner. If your only reason to claim "theory x is wrong" is because it doesn't make much sense from a realistic standpoint then you should think twice. The only thing that is reasonable to do is to understand what Ryuukishi laid out on this messy story. Suggesting never mentioned plot twists or trolls after the story has ended already isn't reasonable, especially after the last 3 episodes didn't really show any!
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2011-03-10, 12:29 | Link #22299 | |||||
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You are confusing "the police said x" with "someone said the police said x." Now, it's still entirely possible you're right, but there is a significant trust gap there. Quote:
The police aren't infallible, and if you fool the police, you add credibility to your story. We don't know how specifically the message bottle "found" by police was acknowledged, nor how it wound up released to the public. Did they make a press release, or did a retired detective "reveal" it? Hell, you could make the whole thing up, give the message bottle to Ootsuki, and tell him the police found it, knowing he'll repeat that story because he's a conspiracy nut. Which he does, to Ange, one of only two times we're ever told that story and the sole time a main character in an investigatory role ever hears that story. Quote:
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2) There are many reasons to wait, but relatively few reasons why the delay on the message bottles would be so long. If Battler can survive through ridiculous contrivances that restrict his ability to reveal himself to the world, basically any argument can be used here. And the impetus to publish (such as believing Battler is alive out there somewhere) could have only arisen later. 3) We have long known that Beatrice's goal was not factually-accurate retellings of the events of those two days. She has no reason not to kill Eva. Quote:
And that aside, I really don't have much reason to think she didn't. If two people can survive independently, three people certainly can. Or four. Or eighteen. Hell, what do we know?
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2011-03-10, 12:59 | Link #22300 | ||||
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Renall you completely ignored my point that it makes no sense for someone to lie about something that can be easily checked.
Your whole counters fall if you can't find a plausible explanation for this. The messages in the bottles are an existence that is known worldwide and so are their contents. So a fact like "the first message was discovered by the police shortly after the incident" can't possibly be something that Ootsuki made up. There's just no way that the origin of those messages weren't made public, and there's no way that the authorities wouldn't rectify a false statement about themselves. The bottle was taken as an evidence about the incident. You should know well that in that case all the related info about its discovery were properly registered and that it was stored into a safe place. Again if you question this you must provide a sensible explanation as to why Ootsuki would lie or as to why he would be misinformed despite being a prominent witch hunter and an university professor. So the only option that's left to you is to speculate that the police or someone inside falsified the story or the content of the bottle. But can you really find any reason as to why would they want to do that? Quote:
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Maybe you haven't noticed but this was the last episode.
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