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Old 2020-11-04, 06:40   Link #1121
Magin
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On one hand, no matter how this plays out, it's going to be very telling how the Popular vote ends up going.

On the other hand, these past four years and election have proved Einstein's quote about human stupidity very much true.

Now to go off on a tangent... let's assume that Trump ultimately does pull off the win via EC. Anyone else noticing that, while people are fighting back, these authoritarian regimes seem to be be on the rise as of the past decade or so? On one hand, it shows that media is definitely getting more coverage out. On the other, there's a not so small part of me that thinks there's a good amount of humanity that wants to go back to the Monarchy system, and have become disillusioned with democracy.
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Old 2020-11-04, 06:43   Link #1122
James Rye
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Maybe in 50 years we will have a World Empire instead of a World Union with a new World Royal Family leading humanity for the next 200 years. XD
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Old 2020-11-04, 06:44   Link #1123
Anh_Minh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magin View Post
On one hand, no matter how this plays out, it's going to be very telling how the Popular vote ends up going.

On the other hand, these past four years and election have proved Einstein's quote about human stupidity very much true.

Now to go off on a tangent... let's assume that Trump ultimately does pull off the win via EC. Anyone else noticing that, while people are fighting back, these authoritarian regimes seem to be be on the rise as of the past decade or so? On one hand, it shows that media is definitely getting more coverage out. On the other, there's a not so small part of me that thinks there's a good amount of humanity that wants to go back to the Monarchy system, and have become disillusioned with democracy.
I figure a lot of people have illusions on which side of the boot they'll be when we're ruled by jackbooted thugs.
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Old 2020-11-04, 07:26   Link #1124
Jaden
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I figured it would be close but not this close. Not feeling so good about my Trump bets anymore.

If I project the remaining votes, assuming they're mail-in votes that favor Dems about 6 to 4, then Wisconsin and Michigan will go to Biden. The rest will go wherever they're leaning now.

The result: Biden 270 EC votes against Trump 268. Whoa...

I did also make some late bets for Trump to win in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia. With those coming through I'm at least making my money back even if he loses the overall race.
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Old 2020-11-04, 07:27   Link #1125
cyberdemon
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Looks like Biden may pull a last second save in Michigan. If he keeps Nevada and Wisconsin that will give him exactly 270
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Old 2020-11-04, 07:53   Link #1126
The Green One
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Well here comes the legal fights...........
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Old 2020-11-04, 09:25   Link #1127
OH&S
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Never in my life did I think it would be this close.

But as things stand right now, before any legal challenges, it looks like Biden is going to get the required 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.
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Old 2020-11-04, 09:27   Link #1128
The Green One
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We'll see. It's not over until it's actually called. Today is going to be stressful.
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Old 2020-11-04, 09:32   Link #1129
mangamuscle
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Originally Posted by frivolity View Post
... them being evil/racist/sexist/homophobic/Islamophobic/bigoted/misinformed.
The simple truth is that those with racist/sexist/homophobic/Islamophobic/bigoted/misinformed ideas are also people and therefore also vote.

The other sad truth is that the USA was born as a country for a simple reason, they wanted freedom that did not existed in europe at the time. But later on started to extol the virtues of emotion, first with the so called "Manifest destiny". If trump wins this will mean that emotion finally won over reason.

A simple explanation can be found in this old Disney short, but look out, at the end they do an appeal to emotion (not reason) to justify the USA going to war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvp3zAPraF4
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Old 2020-11-04, 09:41   Link #1130
Johnny Dy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
The simple truth is that those with racist/sexist/homophobic/Islamophobic/bigoted ideas are also people and therefore also vote.
"Mas'o menos" spoken with a mexican accent.
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Old 2020-11-04, 10:24   Link #1131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
The simple truth is that those with racist/sexist/homophobic/Islamophobic/bigoted/misinformed ideas are also people and therefore also vote.
You can be certain that, in any democracy, there will always be a good 30 to 40 per cent of the population that are on the extreme ends of the political spectrum. But, when you have a result as close as this, that could only mean one thing, and that is that significant numbers of swing voters agree with the Trumpian message.

So, as I say again and again, it cannot be the case that all of these voters are irrational, misinformed, bigoted and so on. There has to be core issues that these swing voters feel are not being adequately addressed by the other side.

And I would venture again that it comes down to the economy, with significant numbers of working-class Americans feeling that they are no longer represented by Democrats who are increasingly urban, educated, and progressive liberals.

But again, I'm not American, so maybe there is something else I'm missing. Right now, what is certain is that even if Biden ekes out a victory, it would be a marginal win, and that would make it so much harder for him to govern from the centre. Governments around the world will take note, and make their own calculations for the future.
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Old 2020-11-04, 10:27   Link #1132
James Rye
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaden View Post
I figured it would be close but not this close. Not feeling so good about my Trump bets anymore.

If I project the remaining votes, assuming they're mail-in votes that favor Dems about 6 to 4, then Wisconsin and Michigan will go to Biden. The rest will go wherever they're leaning now.

The result: Biden 270 EC votes against Trump 268. Whoa...

I did also make some late bets for Trump to win in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia. With those coming through I'm at least making my money back even if he loses the overall race.
You should tell me some Lotto numbers for the german lottery, lol.

But honestly, if it is 270 vs 268... that would so mean "Civil War" in the streets. Right-Wing Milita with support of Cops will battle Antifa and BLM, killing each other with everything they got. Especially since with that result the Rep party has all reason to continue throwing their old values away for the new Trumpism ideology as that seems to work better for them than being fiscal responsible conservatives which nobody seems to care for anymore. They will battle that result for years to come and with three Trump judges in the SC they have good chances to win it as well which in turn would fire up the democratic supporters to bring this to the streets and back to beginning of Milita and Cops vs Protesters of a SC crowned President Trump.

I really hope Biden manages to win a bit better than that... if he could get the majority of the PS mail ballots to edge a win there for a 290-248 that might keep the peace half-way, if not then this could become really bloody in the next months and that during a pandemic.
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Old 2020-11-04, 10:31   Link #1133
Johnny Dy
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We already have some small incidents in Washington semi-aggressive protests to Trump presidency, If he would win, which is from what I see highly unlikely at this point, I believe more and more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Dy View Post
we'll have some riots the likes of which, The Universe has never seen the likes of which.
Not just for overall justice but for overall dear safety, Biden must win.
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Crime and punishment, an age old dilemma. Man has long sought a solution to societies ills. But at what point does the punishment itself... become a crime?

Sometimes it is an easy thing for a man to cry out for retribution, until he himself has walked in the foot steppes of those suffering the penalty.
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Old 2020-11-04, 10:42   Link #1134
OH&S
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This might be significant in explaining why things are so close.

EDIT: I pedaled BS. Link removed. IGNORE.
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Last edited by OH&S; 2020-11-05 at 18:13. Reason: Pedaled BS
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Old 2020-11-04, 10:54   Link #1135
James Rye
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Wow, that is a whole lot of votes. Are those lost forever now or will they still be counted if a Court says that this was not the fault of the voters but on the postal system? How can so many mails be "lost"?
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Old 2020-11-04, 11:07   Link #1136
ramlaen
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Nothing to see here folks, move along.
https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/st...92377380450309

Tweet deleted? What was it?
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Old 2020-11-04, 11:29   Link #1137
Anh_Minh
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What did it say? It's unavailable.
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Old 2020-11-04, 11:36   Link #1138
Sheba
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
What did it say? It's unavailable.
USPS failed to deliver about 27% of mail ballots in south Florida.
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Old 2020-11-04, 11:39   Link #1139
mangamuscle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
so maybe there is something else I'm missing.
Internet social media, that is what. We hear ocasionally about radicalization of islamic extremists, but no one seems aware how social media nowadays radicalizes the masses. In the 20th century only a few in the news media could access thousands (or hunder of thousands) viewers. But now you only need a smartphone and watching some feeds that appeal to your emotions and voila!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ramlaen View Post
Nothing to see here folks, move along.
https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/st...92377380450309
Indeed

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Old 2020-11-04, 12:24   Link #1140
kari-no-sugata II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
You can be certain that, in any democracy, there will always be a good 30 to 40 per cent of the population that are on the extreme ends of the political spectrum. But, when you have a result as close as this, that could only mean one thing, and that is that significant numbers of swing voters agree with the Trumpian message.

So, as I say again and again, it cannot be the case that all of these voters are irrational, misinformed, bigoted and so on. There has to be core issues that these swing voters feel are not being adequately addressed by the other side.

And I would venture again that it comes down to the economy, with significant numbers of working-class Americans feeling that they are no longer represented by Democrats who are increasingly urban, educated, and progressive liberals.
Maybe too early to say this but it feels similar to the 2019 UK general election. The Conservative Party actually won more of the "working class" vote than the Labour Party!


Quote:
But again, I'm not American, so maybe there is something else I'm missing. Right now, what is certain is that even if Biden ekes out a victory, it would be a marginal win, and that would make it so much harder for him to govern from the centre. Governments around the world will take note, and make their own calculations for the future.
I dunno how marginal the electoral college vote will be in the end. If Biden gets most of the current toss ups it could be far from marginal. And the popular vote margin could be 3-4% or so.

Still, it does look like pretty much anyone other than Biden would have lost it. And without COVID-19 it might not even have been close.
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