[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[maximilianjenus]

It's a simple heory based on whoever survives the first twilight, then whoever is left gets staked by the corresponding sin, like how gohda and hideyoshi share the same stake and they used to have mutually exclusive survival rates, you can say that they are an exception in Ep5, but we got to the point where hideyoshi got killed anyway.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

It's a simple theory based on whoever survives the first twilight, then whoever is left gets staked by the corresponding sin, like how gohda and hideyoshi share the same stake and they used to have mutually exclusive survival rates, you can say that they are an exception in Ep5, but we got to the point where hideyoshi got killed anyway.

I know what the theory is I just don't beleive that it really works anymore.

There are some scenes where they show which stakes stake who, but that was kind of dropped after new furniture (new weapons probably) were introduced. And I don't beleive the culprit takes the time to study everyone's character to go with the epitaph murders.

Besides the few scenes where we do see which stake stakes who and the numbers of the twilights the represent how do we know who is staked by whom? Not all of the scenes show the stakes. I guess Gohda and Hideyoshi were both staked by Beelzebub?

One reason I don't rely on the sin theory too much is because the second twilights are staked even though the epitaph doesn't specifically say that they have to for some reason and the stakes used in the second twilight could be just random. Because of that the numbers are all messed up in the gouge the X and kill theme.

[Jan-Poo]

There doesn't seem to be a consistent staking order nor a staking priority, even if you say: "well EPX was an exception" then how do we know that EP5 won't make any exception? If "exceptions" can happen at random then there is no way to accurately predict the murderers.

[Judoh]

Pretty much nobody in episode 4 was staked. Almost all of them were probably shot with a gun.

[LyricalAura]

The idea that the murderer was somehow carrying around a bunch of long metal stakes without anyone noticing always struck me as kind of odd. I've been kicking around a vague theory that the stakes were originally handed out as props for death fakery, and the staker was picking them up off the corpses and using them as weapons of opportunity. The manga shows that the stakes are labeled with their names, so there ought to be a good reason why some people keep getting consistently stabbed with the same ones. Maybe the sins match up in some cases because they were actually chosen by the victim?

[maximilianjenus]

Originally Posted by Judoh

There are some scenes where they show which stakes stake who, but that was kind of dropped after new furniture (new weapons probably) were introduced. And I don't beleive the culprit takes the time to study everyone's character to go with the epitaph murders.

there is no need to know who stakes who or anything like that regarding the fantasy scenesm there is no point ot guess what happens on the fantasy scenes since they don't happen anyway, the point is having certain people staked so we at least know who will survive until 24:00 and who will die.

first let's make a list of people ( I normally would not bother but the topic has been kinda slow lately so I don't see a problem on trying to guess what happens after).

I hvae not played in a while, so please correct me if I am wrong in something.

first twilight victims:
jessica, george, maria, rosa, genji and krauss.

second twilight:
hideyoshi.


was hideyoshi staked?

[Judoh]

@LyricalAura: Well I think Rudolf's Niche company makes occult items that are duplicates of items the American company he's in trouble with makes. That's how he violated their brand image. Dlanor kind of hinted at that.

But after episode 4. I've kind of been playing with the idea that maybe only a few of the stakes actually exist. The stake of Mammon exists at least, and a couple of others might, but I'm kind of thinking that some of the stakes aren't really there.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

second twilight:
hideyoshi.


was hideyoshi staked?

yes he was...

Now that I think about it... Hideyoshi and Kinzo could be the second twilight. Rosa and Maria were the second twilight once so you don't have to "love each other" to be close. And there were one or two times where it was said Kinzo liked Hideyoshi because he saw himself in him.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Judoh

Well I think Rudolf's Niche company makes occult items that are duplicates of items the American company he's in trouble with makes. That's how he violated their brand image. Dlanor kind of hinted at that.

But after episode 4. I've kind of been playing with the idea that maybe only a few of the stakes actually exist. The stake of Mammon exists at least, and a couple of others might, but I'm kind of thinking that some of the stakes aren't really there.

Why would Rudolf make occult items - he's not exactly a fan of that sort of stuff. Heck, he tells Battler straight up as a kid that magic doesn't exist and only bored people make it up to excite others. Plus if people saw something similar to what he sold for a living, Rudolf would become a primary suspect right away.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Marion

Why would Rudolf make occult items - he's not exactly a fan of that sort of stuff. Heck, he tells Battler straight up as a kid that magic doesn't exist and only bored people make it up to excite others. Plus if people saw something similar to what he sold for a living, Rudolf would become a primary suspect right away.

Well it was either Rudolf's company or the American company, but I think Rudolf's company was described as a Niche. Basically he makes things that mainstream companies don't want to bother with because their either esoteric or it's a market that's often overlooked.

He also has "pipelines in Asia" though so I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense. (Unless he was joking about not being in the oil business with his executives.) Other than that the only hint is that Dlanor says the stakes were made in America, and Rudolf is in trouble with someone in America.

[maximilianjenus]

yeah, I forgot about kinzo, so the first 8 confirmed deaths are:


jessica, george, maria, rosa, genji and krauss.
hideyoshi and kinzo.

with kinzo and krauss being posible candidates for both the first and second twilight, but it feels more natural to have the group find kinzo's dead body so he and hideyoshi seetle the second twilight. which stake has been the one found in kinzo's body regularly ?

[Renall]

Why would Hideyoshi and Kinzo make up a Second Twilight? They hardly strike me as "two who are close." Hideyoshi has met Kinzo, but he's not his biological child nor do they seem to have a particularly close relationship. If anything I'd imagine that (if it isn't fake) the intent was Hideyoshi/Eva or something again. Kinzo seems to mostly show up later, on his own.

Though I could see a Second Twilight of Kinzo and Genji, or possibly Kinzo and Kanon/Shannon, or maybe Kinzo/Nanjo. Anybody else doesn't strike me as "close" enough to him to make much sense for plotline murder purposes.

[Jan-Poo]

In that case I don't quite understand why George and Jessica should be considered "close". Sure they have a friendly relationship, but among the cousins I think George is the least close to Jessica, and Battler is definitely closer.

In all the other cases there was an "unique" relationship. Eva-Hideyoshi and Jessica-Kanon, are tied by an "unique" love relationship, there isn't anyone else whom they love. And Rosa-Maria are tied by an unique family tie relationship. Maria is Rosa's only child, and Rosa is Maria's only mother.

But what makes George's and Jessica's relationship unique? Or what makes them "close" more than in any other case? What do they have in common other than being cousins?

Nothing. If they can be "the two" every random pair can.

[Nayrael]

They are cousins and friends who like to hang around together. Unlike their parents who had bad relationship with one another, the cousins are quite close and can become candidates for 2nd Twilight.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

The idea that the murderer was somehow carrying around a bunch of long metal stakes without anyone noticing always struck me as kind of odd.

The stakes don't seem THAT big to me, judging by the anime... you could strap them around your waist and hide them under your coat if you really wanted to.

It's not that unrealistic.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

But what makes George's and Jessica's relationship unique? Or what makes them "close" more than in any other case? What do they have in common other than being cousins?

Well, there was the theory that they're secretly lovers...

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

The stakes don't seem THAT big to me, judging by the anime... you could strap them around your waist and hide them under your coat if you really wanted to.

It's not that unrealistic.

If there were an anime I guess it would have to have content from episodes 1-4. I wish they would make one.

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Well, there was the theory that they're secretly lovers...

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented!

At least Hideyoshi and Kinzo has some foreshadowing.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Nayrael

They are cousins and friends who like to hang around together. Unlike their parents who had bad relationship with one another, the cousins are quite close and can become candidates for 2nd Twilight.

they aren't close, they barely meet each other outside the family meetings. And having a good relationship is not a requirement, because that's not the case with Rosa and Maria.

So even Krauss and Eva could be second twilight victims because they are sibling for what we know.

Well, there was the theory that they're secretly lovers...

no theory can surprise me anymore

[Renall]

Several characters could possibly carry the stakes around. Anyone with a dress could potentially hide them underneath, Dr. Nanjo could hide them under his labcoat or in his bag which he seems to have accessible, a man could possibly hide one in his suit.

But of course that assumes the staker doesn't just have the stakes stored somewhere accessible enough that he or she can get at them quickly, take one or two, use them, and walk off.

EDIT: And if the stakes are replicas, we can't even prove there's only one set of them...

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Renall

Why would Hideyoshi and Kinzo make up a Second Twilight? They hardly strike me as "two who are close." Hideyoshi has met Kinzo, but he's not his biological child nor do they seem to have a particularly close relationship. If anything I'd imagine that (if it isn't fake) the intent was Hideyoshi/Eva or something again. Kinzo seems to mostly show up later, on his own.

Though I could see a Second Twilight of Kinzo and Genji, or possibly Kinzo and Kanon/Shannon, or maybe Kinzo/Nanjo. Anybody else doesn't strike me as "close" enough to him to make much sense for plotline murder purposes.

There are only a few people we know of that he may have "favored" from the foreshadowing in the story. So exactly how close of friends Hideyoshi was with Kinzo is y'know a devil's proof. If you want more hints Hideyoshi did imply early on in episode 5 that Kinzo might be dead with one of his stories so he might know more about Kinzo than we let on. Jessica does something similar in episode 2 talking about Beatrice with Kumasawa before the game starts so it's not completely unusual for him to be the second twilight. They also probably talked a lot about the war since Hideyoshi's so interested in the sengoku era, they would've hit it off pretty well.

If the intent was Hideyoshi/Eva again though I think "tearing apart the two who are close" might imply something different. Like when the two people in the twilight die they are torn from the two people who grieve for them or something.

But that's even worse writing...

Edit: I see a lot of similarities between episode 2 and episode 5. Namely the disappearing dead people and the possible reappearances of those people. Kumasawa and Nanjo's deaths in episode 2 are a good example of that. If they died that early they probably died in a different room altogether, but keeping them alive long enough to vandalize Natsuhi's door would be nice.

[Sniesk]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

does the whole " we should know what happens later" means that by following a certain set of rules we can know who and when gets killed? the whos I can guess by using matching stakes against the first twilight survivors, but I can't think of a method to the when/order.

Hi, this is my first post here (even if i actually lurked a lot ) and i just wanted to point out something.

That is, even if Ryukishi said that we should know what happens next in ep5, that doesn't necessarly mean that killings WILL happen in the way we know. I mean, i still think that the final "kill everyone" trick will actually... kill everyone who's left in the mansion or around it at 24:00 of the 5th (that explains the red given by the stakes about the "unmoved" corpses), but we don't have any basis to say that the epitaph murder will continue, as the gold was actually discovered and it's discovery was announced to all the family members. So i really think that murders will stop after that "trigger" and that no one died in ep5 until 24:00 when the red was given.