Brexit Vote

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

That's why I think she saying "no deal is better then a bad deal". If the EU just giving her bills and problems, walking away let her avoid anything truly ruinous (well besides the obvious massive reputation loss with the EU...)

I think you are mistaken here. If the UK decides to not pay anything at all (for whatever excuse the prime minister goverment concocts) that money is owed to banks, so at the end of the day they would make the international financial system their enemy. Look at argentina, they did just that and nowadays no international bank lends them money, because in politics just the same as in house economics, once someone decides to stop making their payments, chances are they will like it and do it any time they can get away with it. So even if Trunk is all coozy with the UK government, that does not mean that USA banks will say "Here, we have a pile of money to lend you" if the UK defaults. The UK debt rating would go from Aa1 to trash faster than you can say "Jeronimo!"

[GDB]

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

But if you think May going to want to go the next election (which will be very shortly after the EU talks in real terms) and say "hey I got nothing from the EU but this huge bill when our NHS is in crises and none of our new international trade deals have bore fruit yet!", then you must be mad.

Why do we care about what's best for May?

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

(well besides the obvious massive reputation loss with the EU...)

And... everyone. Why would anyone want to make a deal with them that didn't have instant gain for them, knowing that Britain's reputation for breaching contract?

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

But if you think May going to want to go the next election (which will be very shortly after the EU talks in real terms) and say "hey I got nothing from the EU but this huge bill when our NHS is in crises and none of our new international trade deals have bore fruit yet!", then you must be mad.

Spoiler: the NHS is already dead

When May decided to go ahead with leaving the EU, saving the NHS became a thing of the past. There will be no one qualified left to hire, there will be not enough money to put into it, and there will be greater pressure on it than before to the point where the entire system will collapse.

Worst of all, there will be no time to figure out a way to mitigate damages. There is only 2 years to try and salvage a trade deal with the EU, what period of time is there to talk about salvaging the NHS?

If the Leave campaign really ever truly cared about the NHS, it wouldn't have been trying to leave the EU.

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

That's why I think she saying "no deal is better then a bad deal". If the EU just giving her bills and problems, walking away let her avoid anything truly ruinous (well besides the obvious massive reputation loss with the EU...) , gives her points with some of the Leave Camp (who be more inclined to vote for her) and the Trump administration. The latter who be on the top of her list of groups "who I can make a quick trade deal with and get money flowing in time for election", trade deals that she be quickly moving onto with more speed if she just decided to drop out the EU the impolite way.

The Trump administration has, to date, been proven to not be trustworthy and mostly self interested in whatever the president feels at each moment in time. Trump himself has taken both a pro and anti Brexit stance, had both attempted to aggravate the EU and be closer with it, and has been prone to walk back on many of his promises.

So, in the event that May says "No Deal" to the EU, doesn't pay what the UK owes, and goes to Trump. What exactly will motivate him to give her a deal, when he just saw that the UK has no interest in paying back the debt it has?

And the EU is less giving us bills and problems, and more asking us to pay back their money. Again, this was something mentioned before the referendum happened.

For what it's worth, I don't think that by the end of these talks that the UK will pay 60 billion to the EU. Oh, it will definitely pay a large sum amount in billions, but there will some considerations for the UK having been (and for the next couple of years, still is) a net contributor to the EU project, and has assets in the EU that it paid for and uses.

The question of what will be the details of said deal I'm sure will leave many in the UK angry over giving up some if not all of those assets, but given how the UK is crunched for time in making a deal of some sort quickly, it might be the only option left.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

Well the EU could actually give some of those benefits of all those project the money for in a phasing out period. Temporary phasing out membership budget sounds a lot better than 60 billion bill.

It also make the deal a lot more give and take in both directions. The danger of a deal were large amounts of money is going one way, is that the loser of said money is inclined to think "how can I get out of this?", but if the deal more complicated and bring benefits, it easier to accept, especially if it make life with your neighbor smother and easier.

But if you think May going to want to go the next election (which will be very shortly after the EU talks in real terms) and say "hey I got nothing from the EU but this huge bill when our NHS is in crises and none of our new international trade deals have bore fruit yet!", then you must be mad.

That's why I think she saying "no deal is better then a bad deal". If the EU just giving her bills and problems, walking away let her avoid anything truly ruinous (well besides the obvious massive reputation loss with the EU...) , gives her points with some of the Leave Camp (who be more inclined to vote for her) and the Trump administration. The latter who be on the top of her list of groups "who I can make a quick trade deal with and get money flowing in time for election", trade deals that she be quickly moving onto with more speed if she just decided to drop out the EU the impolite way.

It not a remotely perfect path to go down through, since as stated, the EU would be fuming, and that make life much more difficult in many areas, like dealing with the Russia and it wouldn't help her win votes from more moderate Remain voters.... but it beats the political suicide of coming home with nothing but problems and bills before a General Election.

And once again you show yourself totally incapable of understanding other countries have concerns other than UK's welfare and the opinion of UK subjects. Sure, it would be great for you if we gave you a lot of free stuff. 60 billions worth of it.

[Haak]

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

Well the EU could actually give some of those benefits of all those project the money for in a phasing out period. Temporary phasing out membership budget sounds a lot better than 60 billion bill.

I'm pretty sure the UK will get we've payed for if we haven't already. If we didn't then I'd be just as pissed off.

But if you think May going to want to go the next election (which will be very shortly after the EU talks in real terms) and say "hey I got nothing from the EU but this huge bill when our NHS is in crises and none of our new international trade deals have bore fruit yet!", then you must be mad.

The public is dumb. It still hasn't realized that the NHS crisis is self-inflicted through a combination of costly top-down 2012 reforms, crippling austerity, PFIs and outsourcing services (Privatization), and that itself is largely thanks to the BBC's media blackout on all those subjects and its sycophant establishement worshiping. May doesn't have to worry about shit because she doesn't have a credible opposition.

It's also going to get much worse if our working population stops rising to keep up with our rising elderly population, but pointing out that basic fact seems to be political suicide these days.

I also see that you've conveniently left out Gibraltar out of the conversation now...

[Ithekro]

With the end of the Empire and the changes in how the world is and how it trades, is Gibraltar even strategic anymore?

[Haak]

I don't think it has any strategic value at all. Why do you ask?

[Arabesque]

Unless things devolve into war between Spain/EU and the UK, I don't think there is much strategic values in who controls the Rock. The value comes from it as a negotiation chip, since it is important to the UK more than anything.

I suppose Spanish interest in Gibraltar is related with controlling the traffic on the border (since the UK doesn't want to be in the EU) and that it removes a tax haven from the equation since May had been threatening on making London one.

[James Rye]

Didn't someone in this thread said that Spain would oppose Scotland's application to the EU if they go independent because of Catalonia? Looks like the spanish goverment changed their minds:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ies-to-join-eu

Man, Sturgeon must have done a little dance of victory hearing those news. Now voting yes on the 2nd indyref will be less threatening as in "we will be all alone~" and more like "we have a real chance to get back into the EU". May and her Brexiteers probably didn't liked to hear of those news.

[Botan_TM]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Didn't someone in this thread said that Spain would oppose Scotland's application to the EU if they go independent because of Catalonia? Looks like the spanish goverment changed their minds:

Nope, they haven't changed anything.

But if it happens legally and constitutionally, we would not block it.

As far as I remember, Spanish never said it will veto application of Scotland, it Scotland gains independence with London's agreement. Looks like somebody is trying to sell old story as news.
Spanish by default is against border changes without both sides approval.

[Draco Spirit]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Didn't someone in this thread said that Spain would oppose Scotland's application to the EU if they go independent because of Catalonia? Looks like the spanish goverment changed their minds:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ies-to-join-eu

Man, Sturgeon must have done a little dance of victory hearing those news. Now voting yes on the 2nd indyref will be less threatening as in "we will be all alone~" and more like "we have a real chance to get back into the EU". May and her Brexiteers probably didn't liked to hear of those news.

I'm strongly suspecting Spains stance has a lot to do with the Gibraltar small print. Is the EU going for good old divide and conquer by trying to give May a domestic headache while the talks go off?

[Draco Spirit]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662656.html

Seems the government isn't planning to give up Gibraltar, even if it means defending it with force. And since stopping wars in Europe is one of the founding ideal that the EU suppose to stand for, I can't see a Spanish invasion force being even realistically considered.

[Botan_TM]

What is wrong with UK press and government?

First some fake news about Spain changing opinion now, when it in reality haven't changed since 2014 at least (paywall)

José-Manuel García-Margallo, foreign minister, told the Financial Times: “If Scotland becomes independent in accordance with the legal and institutional procedures, it will ask for admission [to the EU]. If that process has indeed been legal, that request can be considered. If not, then not,” he said.

Asked about the independence campaign, Spain’s foreign minister said: “We don’t interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. If Britain’s constitutional order allows – and it seems that it does allow – Scotland to choose independence, we have nothing to say about this.”

And now some UK government officials starts talking about defending Gibraltar out from nowhere for no reason, because nobody is planning any invasion or occupation or whatever of Gibraltar, so why this is even a thing worth to be posted?

[Dextro]

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

What is wrong with UK press and government?

First some fake news about Spain changing opinion now, when it in reality haven't changed since 2014 at least (paywall)



And now some UK government officials starts talking about defending Gibraltar out from nowhere for no reason, because nobody is planning any invasion or occupation or whatever of Gibraltar, so why this is even a thing worth to be posted?

Because you need to demonize the EU to maintain the pretense that Brexit is in any way a fight for freedom against the tyranny of the mainland bureaucrats. At least that's my take on it.

[MCAL]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...blue-brexit-eu

Wow! 500 million pounds for a change in color! Glad to see they're really taking a smart stance on this!

[Haak]

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

Nope, they haven't changed anything.

As far as I remember, Spanish never said it will veto application of Scotland, it Scotland gains independence with London's agreement. Looks like somebody is trying to sell old story as news.
Spanish by default is against border changes without both sides approval.

They never said they would but they also never said they wouldn't either. I always assumed the threat was implicit and that this certain card was always on the table (all options are open). Maybe not a shift in policy but isn't it a significant clarification?

What is wrong with UK press and government?

Michael Heseltine: Germany will 'win the peace' because of Brexit

The problem is that we have too many old dinosuars who are still living in the wrong era.

Originally Posted by MCAL

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...blue-brexit-eu

Wow! 500 million pounds for a change in color! Glad to see they're really taking a smart stance on this!

I can't find any articles that clarify whether that £490 million is what the UK spends usually every 5 years or if it's specific to this one but that's still an obscene amount of money. I sincerely hope we're getting our money's worth security-wise.

In any case, those comments about it being a source of humiliation were just hilarious.

[Arabesque]

I can not wait until I whip out that legendary dark blue passport at check in and have airport security kneel in respect.

More seriously, I feel that a colour change is the least of people's worries going forward, given that the negotiations had taken a bad step already in the UK's favour.

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

And now some UK government officials starts talking about defending Gibraltar out from nowhere for no reason, because nobody is planning any invasion or occupation or whatever of Gibraltar, so why this is even a thing worth to be posted?

The reason is in the article, and it has little to do with Gibraltar and everything to do with Margret Thatcher.

The MP in question who called for war is directly invoking the war with Argentina over the Falklands, because despite Thatcher having been destroying communities and stealing milk from children, the war helped her reputation.

The beating of the drums of war is all about reliving the second coming of what many see as Thatcher 2.0, and a desire to see past glory come by again.

This is of course ignoring that:

1) May is not Thatcher, and thus far has shown herself not to be in the same league let alone level

2) Fabian Picardo, the chief minister of Gibraltar, said quite clearly that if people in the UK cared about Gibraltar and wanted it to remain British, they would vote remain. Which half the people in the UK shown that they don't care really.

3) It was the EU which brought this issue of Gibraltarian sovereignty, while the UK government had ignored (or forgotten?) to include it in the statement for triggering Article 50.

Gibraltar will in all likelihood remain under joint control between Spain and the UK in the end, since the actual Gibraltarian's have long since decided they want to remain British citizens, but it is sad to see how the UK could not care less about what happens to the Rock, and how much Spain actually still does.

[Draco Spirit]

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

What is wrong with UK press and government?

First some fake news about Spain changing opinion now, when it in reality haven't changed since 2014 at least (paywall)

You can likely blame the Remain siding press for the impression of Spain wanting a fight over Gibraltar. I know the Independent been pushing it's a sign that Brexit is doomed and the EU is so clever.

[Haak]

No you don't.

The Remain side of the press was little different to the Brexit side: Neither of them suggested war and military action until Wingus and Dingus brought it up. Michael Howard is a Brexiter and Michael Fallon is a Remainer but strong eurosceptic (and both are Conservatives)

[monir]

I saw a short video of a fat guy who entertained internet with his Brexit dance after he took off his clothes. It was pretty on point in entertainment value but, alas, the internet is not letting me find it. Anyone else saw it? Link me, please. Haak, was it you?