[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[Tomoya-kun]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

I'm just pointing the flaws in his post that can easily be identified with logic. Everything that I said is directed to the logic of his posts. I did not insult anybody. And there is no rule saying we're supposed to write beatiful posts that are pleasant to the ears.

You may have insulted someone and just didn't know it.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

This is not a hotel where the building have to be constructed with materials that absorb noises well. Stop making these assumptions unless you've read this from the Graphic Novel.

A well-built wall will always have a higher STC than a cheaply made one. Plus, of course, one would not want a mansion with paper-thin walls in the guest rooms lest guests disturb one another. While he may not have gone for STC 70+ like expensive hotels have, STC 50 (which is what current international building code requires between units of a multi-family dwelling) is a realistic value for a well-built wall. It's unlikely any expensive building like a mansion would have an STC lower than 45 for their internal walls, since below that it would be annoying for guests even just having people in adjacent rooms talking (speech is about 60 dB). It's not like Kinzo's building the cheapest McMansion he can manage; we can assume reasonable care was taken in its construction, and it's a reasonable assumption that the walls are rated STC 50 or higher, just for the comfort of the residents and guests.

Also, all walls tend to be better at blocking higher-frequency sounds than lower. A sharp crack such as a gun report has a lot of high frequency components, so an STC50 wall will probably reduce those components by more than 50 dB.

And since guns tend to be from 130 to 170 dB, do the math. Three walls at STC 50 would turn 130-170 dB into -20 to 20 dB. 0dB is the threshold for the quietest sound a person can hear (negative values are below the threshold of hearing), and 20 dB is about the volume of rustling leaves.

[FateAnomaly]

The culprit is either Maria or Shannon. Its always the cute or beautiful one that is the murderer.

Anyway, don't take my comment too seriously. I like both of them btw.

[Luxa]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

It may well have been served after they left, either intentionally or accidentally. It's possible they were intended to be victims #5 and #6, and their going to bed early saved their lives; in that possibility, Gohda and Shannon would simply be victims of convenience.



It could also be to disguise the cause of death. For example, if poison was used, some can leave telltale discolorations of the lips or tongue. If a gun was used, severely damaging the head could hide that fact as well -- at least sufficiently so that Nanjo couldn't identify cause of death. This could help the killer in that nobody knows how they killed.

True, I've forgotten that the good doctor doesn't have a full autopsy kit on himself - and probably that wouldn't help either.

But then why would the killer try to disguise the weapon? If a gun is found on someone then that person is automatically a suspect, so I suppose it's not a gun. (I still subscribe to the supernatural theory.) So is it something which could be traced to a character? A vicious hairpin of Eva's?

[Mei19]

Originally Posted by June 1983

When you think about them lined up that way, there's one thing that it's interesting -- height differences. Gohda is quite taller than any of the others, I think, and I've also thought it was interesting that his mouth is still visible in the TIPS image -- so it's likely on the top of his face which was battered. Anyway, this makes me wonder if maybe they weren't standing up, but laid down when the were already dead.

If I were the killer and if I really did mash them with something I'd prefer them lying on the ground. Suppose the disfigurement of the faces might be an expression that the 6 were "sacrificed" to Beatrice. Being dead might not had been enough. Either there is a reason or the culprit(s) were/was only being random. I'd stick with the former.

2nd thing.
If one of the DEAD 6 sacrifices pull an Aizen (substituting his dead body with a gigai) to become the culprit, I'll just go back to watching Bleach. That, IMO, would be too cliche, unrealistic, and a lame turn of events.

3rd thing.
No offense intended eventhough nothing is confirmed yet I think it's a liiiittle out there that somebody shot the 6 with a gun. If they had a gunshot wound, the doctor would've noticed it when he assessed them. Anyone could tell if a person got shot. They would be bleeding from their....gunshot wound somehow. There are other ways to mysteriously kill sacrificial victims. I'd never acknowledge a bloody gun for Umineko.

Things that got my attention from episode 2:

-Battler's father knew that he was going to die right after their meeting.
-Genji aka Kinzo's bff saw the bloody handprints on Natsuhi's door and acted like nothing happened. It didn't register to him that those might be someone ELSE'S blood. He even said he will clean it. Like it's nothing. Like the prankster doesn't matter.
-Who is this Noir?
-Who is this Rouge?

episode 1
What was the landscape changes Maria noticed the first time she set foot on the island?

My current speculations which can obviously end up as nothing but BS talk: There's a cult involved who loves to draw bloody ritual circles. There are more than 18 people on the island. And. Beatrice EXISTS. I'm still not ready to accept the rationale about the glowing, pixie sprinkling, flying caterpillars. Not when one butterfly was real enough to illuminate Beatrice's portrait.

[Luxa]

Originally Posted by Mei19

-Who is this Noir?
-Who is this Rouge?


My current speculations which can obviously end up as nothing but BS talk: There's a cult involved who loves to draw bloody ritual circles. There are more than 18 people on the island. And. Beatrice EXISTS. I'm still not ready to accept the rationale about the glowing, pixie sprinkling, flying caterpillars. Not when one butterfly was real enough to illuminate Beatrice's portrait.

I think that Mr. Noir and Ms. Rouge are just roulette references. I would be very surprised otherwise.

I definitely think that Beatrice exists, but I'm not sure about the number of people on the island.

[Alaya]

Originally Posted by Mei19

-Who is this Noir?
-Who is this Rouge?

They refer to color in the roulette. Noir is black and rouge is red (in French, but I would let a French guy around here confirm ). In roulette, you can choose to bet which tile's color the ball will fall into.

[Mei19]

Originally Posted by Luxa

I think that Mr. Noir and Ms. Rouge are just roulette references. I would be very surprised otherwise.

I definitely think that Beatrice exists, but I'm not sure about the number of people on the island.

Mmm yeah....but still it's a possibility me thinks. Think about these questions. How can one person take out 6 people without any help? Without noone noticing? If they were dead 6 hours, they had to be dead around 12 midnight or so. 5 minutes before 12 am they were all still alive and talking. The corpse were discovered around 6 am. Can one person pull that off? Next, it's a huge island. Who knows what/who really is on that island even before Battler and the others came? Kinzo might have an idea. Suppose there are others in the island, it's also a possibility that one of the 18 people (the supposed culprit) is connected to them. The possibilities are endless for a third party to enter the picture. Kyrie doesn't have to be right. The bloody circle at the shed makes it look like the culprit(s) is/are into rituals.

Blah I'm just laying down all speculations I have so that I can cross them out as episodes go along.

[June 1983]

Originally Posted by Mei19

[FONT="Century Gothic"]
episode 1
What was the landscape changes Maria noticed the first time she set foot on the island?

There was a torii built on the rocks near where the boat docked, but it had apparently disappeared (Jessica said it was hit by lightning) in the past year.

[Jan-Poo]

No, it wasn't the past year, it happened on summer of the same year, so very very recently.

[Luxa]

I've reformatted your post a bit, to make answering easier.

Originally Posted by Mei19

Mmm yeah....but still it's a possibility me thinks. Think about these questions.
a, How can one person take out 6 people without any help? Without noone noticing?
b, If they were dead 6 hours, they had to be dead around 12 midnight or so. 5 minutes before 12 am they were all still alive and talking. The corpse were discovered around 6 am. Can one person pull that off?
c, Next, it's a huge island. Who knows what/who really is on that island even before Battler and the others came? Kinzo might have an idea. Suppose there are others in the island, it's also a possibility that one of the 18 people (the supposed culprit) is connected to them. The possibilities are endless for a third party to enter the picture. Kyrie doesn't have to be right.
d, The bloody circle at the shed makes it look like the culprit(s) is/are into rituals.

Blah I'm just laying down all speculations I have so that I can cross them out as episodes go along.

a, With using magic, for example. Otherwise let's suppose he has some experience and a little bit of madness. Then he can drug all the family members (not poison, just something like sleeping pills) and after sabotaging the telephone system, they are fair game. Taking out Shanon and the cook are a bit more risky, but can be done quietly if one has the physical strength. (I suppose.)
If the family is drugged, than there are only Kinzo and perhaps the doctor remaining in the house, so after the act, the killer can move freely.
b, I think that the bodies were found more like around 8 or something and determining the time of death might not be that accurate. (Or the doctor could be guilty.) Killing them could be done in three hours, taking them to the shed is another two hours, drawing the symbol is about half an hour, our suspect could have also taken a nice hot shower in the morning.
c, That's completely true. However I wouldn't like it for breaking the isolated, we know all the suspects mood.
d, True, but any family member could be also into the occult. We know that Kinzo and Maria are. (from TIPS)

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

A well-built wall will always have a higher STC than a cheaply made one. Plus, of course, one would not want a mansion with paper-thin walls in the guest rooms lest guests disturb one another. While he may not have gone for STC 70+ like expensive hotels have, STC 50 (which is what current international building code requires between units of a multi-family dwelling) is a realistic value for a well-built wall. It's unlikely any expensive building like a mansion would have an STC lower than 45 for their internal walls, since below that it would be annoying for guests even just having people in adjacent rooms talking (speech is about 60 dB). It's not like Kinzo's building the cheapest McMansion he can manage; we can assume reasonable care was taken in its construction, and it's a reasonable assumption that the walls are rated STC 50 or higher, just for the comfort of the residents and guests.

Also, all walls tend to be better at blocking higher-frequency sounds than lower. A sharp crack such as a gun report has a lot of high frequency components, so an STC50 wall will probably reduce those components by more than 50 dB.

And since guns tend to be from 130 to 170 dB, do the math. Three walls at STC 50 would turn 130-170 dB into -20 to 20 dB. 0dB is the threshold for the quietest sound a person can hear (negative values are below the threshold of hearing), and 20 dB is about the volume of rustling leaves.

Well as long as these numbers don't come from estimation, as in you got them from respectables source or you've done lots of sound lvl measurements, then great.

Originally Posted by Mei19

-Genji aka Kinzo's bff saw the bloody handprints on Natsuhi's door and acted like nothing happened. It didn't register to him that those might be someone ELSE'S blood. He even said he will clean it. Like it's nothing. Like the prankster doesn't matter.

My current speculations which can obviously end up as nothing but BS talk: There's a cult involved who loves to draw bloody ritual circles. There are more than 18 people on the island. And. Beatrice EXISTS. I'm still not ready to accept the rationale about the glowing, pixie sprinkling, flying caterpillars. Not when one butterfly was real enough to illuminate Beatrice's portrait.

The red prints were noticed before Genji and Natsuhi discover the corpses. They can't be sure that those're blood yet. Even after the corpses have been found, you still can't be sure that those are blood unless told otherwise. It might just be red paint, the killer's trick to imply supernatural power is in action.

Originally Posted by Mei19

Next, it's a huge island. Who knows what/who really is on that island even before Battler and the others came? Kinzo might have an idea. Suppose there are others in the island, it's also a possibility that one of the 18 people (the supposed culprit) is connected to them. The possibilities are endless for a third party to enter the picture. Kyrie doesn't have to be right. The bloody circle at the shed makes it look like the culprit(s) is/are into rituals.

Blah I'm just laying down all speculations I have so that I can cross them out as episodes go along.

There might be someone else in the island, but whoever he/she is, can't be the one who gives the umbrella and letter to Maria. This "Beatrice" would have to know the exact position of Maria and all the others in the area, in order to approach Maria in the open at the garden while she happen to be alone, without any of the other 17 individuals noticing that someone else has entered the property.

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Are Eva and Hideyoshi not supposed to be in the mansion? I sure did not get this impression from the anime.
Gohda was also in the mansion all night at different area of the building than the 3siblings and Kyrie.

Yeah I was on my way to class today and suddenly realized that too, just ignore it

As far as Ghoda is concerned though, I've suspected from the beginning that the servants would've been killed off before the guests since generally you kill the patrollers first so they aren't in the way unless I go by the "poisoning the guests" (where one of them can be used to kill them) theory which involves no gun anyway.

Ok I just finished the raw, I'll keep my analysis to a minimum here since I'm gonna need the subs to clear up alot of questions as to what happened, but it seemed like a lot of theorizing on the character's parts so we should get quite a few answers to some of our questions.

Spoiler for Episode 1-3:

My impression that the killer left no trace was...clearly wrong judging by that scene in the dining room with the blood how odd...The weapon is choice is now currently up in the air for me till the subs come out.

Also Eva and Hideyoshi are out of the picture. I guess the theories on Natsuhi being the killer just grew that much stronger but I'm eager to know what exactly Genji told Kanon right before the scene jumps to Kanon rushing back with Kumasawa. Seems like it depicted Genji was staying behind but that's why I need the subs to clarify on that. Either way we know the painting didn't show up till Kanon came back with Kumasawa.

Totally couldn't understand everything else save for that part with Natsuhi and the moments with Maria being her usually self

[maximilianjenus]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

The red prints were noticed before Genji and Natsuhi discover the corpses. They can't be sure that those're blood yet. Even after the corpses have been found, you still can't be sure that those are blood unless told otherwise. It might just be red paint, the killer's trick to imply supernatural power is in action.

In the novel it's crealy said it gives the impression of being paint.

Also a bit about building, while I don't know about japan myself, but in some western countries houses are not built with wood, but rather more rocky materials I live in Mexico and lately there have beena lot of gunfights I don't end up noticing because of the construction of my house. I am talking about gunfights like 50 to 100 meters distance in very quiet hours.

[Karlson]

From the latest episode's poll thread.

Originally Posted by Ssol

The only odd thing I noticed was Shannon's tears were fresh when they showed her face but she was supposed to have died six hours prior.

He has a point, why do we see her tears there? They should've dried by that point. And just like that the theory that one of the dead from the first twilight isn't really dead after all doesn't sound so crazy anymore

Although something tells me that was just a mistake on the creators' parts

[unconfirmed]

Originally Posted by Karlson

From the latest episode's poll thread.



He has a point, why do we see her tears there? They should've dried by that point. And just like that the theory that one of the dead from the first twilight isn't really dead after all doesn't sound so crazy anymore

Although something tells me that was just a mistake on the creators' parts

Yeah, it's a mistake because there weren't any tears on her face (or what's left of it) in the game iirc.

[Christen]

The tears is probably just an overlooked fact. Or maybe Hideyoshi and Kanon dropped some water from the rain

In any case, it isn't important really.

[Ithekro]

Well we have a murder waepon for at least two murders now. Unless someone stuck those stakes into an existing hole I'd day they got them pounded into their skulls.

[MeoTwister5]

Here are the contents of the first magic circle Maria mentioned to contain the passages of Psalm 116:16-17

16 O LORD, truly I am your servant;
I am your servant, the son of your maidservant [c] ;
you have freed me from my chains.

17 I will sacrifice a thank offering to you
and call on the name of the LORD.

[orenronen]

It's probably not all that important, but as long as you bring up the Psalms passage, it's worth noting that while the VN had a blurry image not even resembling Hebrew, the anime version gets it right. However, only the second part of 16 is written in the circle ("you have freed..."). 17 is reproduced in full.

Also not mentioned in the anime is the Hebrew text inside the circle, basically a list of names of angels and demons from Jewish mythology. From what we get in the anime, I can make out Ariel, Cherub, Tarshish and Morloch. The rest aren't written clearly or are too stained by blood. IIRC, the VN has Maria explaining that as well by this point, though I can't remember the exact details.