[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 7 Requiem of the golden witch

[Renall]

Well, there's always the prospect that there really were two of them!

It would be pretty easy to cross-reference Fukuin records, more than anything, as that would definitively prove there was no Kanon... unless that 70s Shannon really did exist, and Yasu modeled her "Shannon" on another Shannon, and actually was known as Kanon... or any number of other confusing permutations that still make more sense than DISGUISES! ^_^

[rogerpepitone]

No, I'm sure that the Fukuin records would show Kanon existed, whether he did or not; Genji would have plenty of opportunity to plant fake paperwork.

[AuraTwilight]

That's ridiculous.

I'm not saying that your idea that this is the case is ridiculous, but that the idea itself is ridiculous, and if Ryukishi wants me to seriously invest in that idea, he is delusional.

Given that Yasu is pretty much delusional, I don't see why it doesn't work.

I mean, yea, there's issues about how it tricked people, but as far as a motive for Yasu herself goes, what's the problem?

Acknowledging Beatrice herself is a false win condition and not Beatrice's goal. So it's actually exactly the opposite of that; she wants Battler to look beyond the characters she's created (Shannon, Kanon, and Beatrice aren't "her") and find the real person.

Battler is different from other people for a number of reasons.

And yea, Genji pretty much has the Fukuin house by the balls if he can pass a nine year old off as a six year old and etcetera.

[Jan-Poo]

Forget the fukuin records. There is a mandatory school system in Japan, if Kanon existed there should be records of his exams as well as several witnesses.


Lately I've been thinking about the "rokkenjima incident" from the real world society's perspective. There are a few things that I realized.


1) A list of the victims or presumed victims should exist. In the first place if Eva inherited everything, that means that for the society all the Ushiromiya with the exception of Ange and Eva died in that accident, regardless of the lack of corpses. Nanjo and Kumasawa certainly must figure on that list since we know they are assumed they also died in that accident. The event has been reported on magazines and discussed on talk shows, so a list of people that are reported as missing (and therefore presumed dead afterwards) must exist. In that list Shannon must be included with her public name which is probably Sayo Yasuda. Naturally if Kanon doesn't exist in the real world no one must have reported his disappearance nor his existence on Rokkenjima on that day, therefore the fact that he appears in the messages in the bottles two years later should have been something that anyone would think suspicious at first glance. Why this unknown servant that no one ever heard about for two years suddenly shows up in what appear to be the account of the Rokkenjima incident's two days?
People would definitely want to know more about this servant? Right? The talk shows and irresponsible magazine would inquire, right? And if they didn't find any support of this guy's existence wouldn't it be clear to anyone that Kanon doesn't exist?


2) If a list of victims exist, there should also be away to find their handwritings. In this society you can't do anything without filling up modules and signing up documents. So every adult should have left some handwritten stuff in their homes or workplaces. The same goes for the children who must have left some written paper at their respective schools, and that includes Sayo Yasuda as well. So I wonder... shouldn't witch hunters like Ootsukii and his companions think about comparing the victims' handwriting with the messages in the bottle's handwritings? If not them the talk shows? The magazines? The police? I'm sure there are experts that would definitely find who among the victims wrote the messages even if the handwriting was somehow altered.


3) We know very little for sure about what those messages talked about, however we know that they all have in common that in the end 18 people die. Now I really can't think that Kanon doesn't figure in those stories, if that was true then shkanon would be even more pointless than already is, it wouldn't even be fictional. So we can only conclude that Ange isn't among those 18 people. But how "Beatrice" knew that? Battler's return to the family register must have happened earlier but the main family was only informed of Ange's absence the 3rd October right? How could "Beatrice" wrote two stories (or even more) in that little time?
I thought that maybe she wrote the stories before and then she fixed them by removing Ange. That would in fact explain some odd things like the fact that the cousins don't even mention her and say stuff like "all cousins are finally gathered". But even this interpretation has some problems. Why would Beatrice bother to make that change? To make her story more believable? She should have rather worried about the fact that no one would really die... unless she knew that everyone would die. So in other words, no matter how you look at it, those messages should look definitely suspicious from a real world's perspective.

4) How can the "Battler" in those stories be a reliable representation of the real Battler? With the exception of Rudolf and Kyrie (who certainly didn't write those stories) the last time everyone else saw Battler was when he was 12 years old. A person can change a lot from the age of 12 to the age of 18, not only in look but also on personality. How could "Beatrice" know details like the "breast sommelier" joke?

5) There are a few things that Ange herself should be able to confirm, She was very little at the time but usually people remember what happened when they were 5 years old. What she should remember is if she saw her Grandfather at all in 1985. That would definitely confirm or deny what was reported in the messages. The other thing that she should remember is Kanon. The messages show that at least Hideyoshi remembered him, so he must have been present on the past family meetings. If Ange doesn't remember him she should easily realize that there's something wrong with this servant.

6) There are several facts mentioned in the messages that should be easy to confirm or debunk in the real world. For example we know that the existence of Kuwadorian was confirmed. The existence of the ingot should also be easy to confirm. After all according to the story not only that ingot was taken long time before but it was also recently retrieved by Krauss. Finding which bank was that shouldn't be that hard, you just need to check who Kinzo received money from. Also Krauss mentioned a squad of experts that checked the island, it should be possible to retrace those people, it should also be possible to ask them what they found and there's no way they didn't find the kuwadorian. The existence of the old military base should have also become apparent unless the government classified that information.
If Krauss' boat was really left on Niijima for maintenance right before the incident, it should still be there. Several ex fukuin servants that worked on the Kuwadorian should be able to tell what they know without any obligation to maintain the secret. After all, all the persons involved are dead, and I'm sure they wouldn't refuse the chance to appear on a talk show, certainly not all of them. And not only the fukuin servants. Genji and Kinzo certainly didn't build everything by themselves. that stylish secret room in the depth of Rokkenjima for example, who built it? Who made the pavement? Who painted the walls? Who brought the furnitures? Who created the electric system? And if there's a bathroom as well, who made all the necessary works? That stuff wasn't made by the military, that's for sure. And who built that complex epitaph mechanism? You need some skilled artisans and an architect to make all that custom stuff. Wouldn't they know the solution of Kinzo's epitaph already?

So in the end there's really a lot of stuff that one should be able to dig up with just mediocre investigation skills.

[Renall]

Forget that (well, don't forget it, but to add to it); consider the portrait.

Who the hell was the artist!? What did Kinzo (or Genji) say when he contracted the paintings (remember, there's the one in the main hall and apparently also one in the study)? Was there a photograph of Beatrice Castiglioni or Beatrice-2? Did someone physically pose for it? If so, who? What was the painter told about the work he/she would be making?

[ErenselTheJester]

Well, obviously, we don't need to care about all that. This story has enough holes in it already, if we find anymore, there'll be nothing left.

However, if we use the "Author's theory," it can be explained that letters might have been counterfeits by someone else instead of the original Beatrice, in which there would be no trustworthy interpretation of any of the characters other than Ep 3 and beyond, where we can at least trust Featherine.

[Jan-Poo]

Well the first message was supposedly found right after the incident, so it's very unlikely that it was a fake. Also EP4 seems to confirm that the handwriting is truly Beatrice's.

[AuraTwilight]

Forget the fukuin records. There is a mandatory school system in Japan, if Kanon existed there should be records of his exams as well as several witnesses.

This is a good point, actually. But since no one knows Kanon's real name, how can they look this up? There'd be the false Fukuin records, but if Genji can go that far, he can probably forge a school record or something.

1) A list of the victims or presumed victims should exist. In the first place if Eva inherited everything, that means that for the society all the Ushiromiya with the exception of Ange and Eva died in that accident, regardless of the lack of corpses. Nanjo and Kumasawa certainly must figure on that list since we know they are assumed they also died in that accident. The event has been reported on magazines and discussed on talk shows, so a list of people that are reported as missing (and therefore presumed dead afterwards) must exist. In that list Shannon must be included with her public name which is probably Sayo Yasuda. Naturally if Kanon doesn't exist in the real world no one must have reported his disappearance nor his existence on Rokkenjima on that day, therefore the fact that he appears in the messages in the bottles two years later should have been something that anyone would think suspicious at first glance. Why this unknown servant that no one ever heard about for two years suddenly shows up in what appear to be the account of the Rokkenjima incident's two days?
People would definitely want to know more about this servant? Right? The talk shows and irresponsible magazine would inquire, right? And if they didn't find any support of this guy's existence wouldn't it be clear to anyone that Kanon doesn't exist?

Wait a sec, two years later? I'm pretty sure the record bottles showed up sooner than that?

That aside, why wouldn't Kanon's existence be reported? Eva survived and, assuming R-Prime Shkanon, she'd probably be like "Who the fuck is this Kanon dude?"

2) If a list of victims exist, there should also be away to find their handwritings. In this society you can't do anything without filling up modules and signing up documents. So every adult should have left some handwritten stuff in their homes or workplaces. The same goes for the children who must have left some written paper at their respective schools, and that includes Sayo Yasuda as well. So I wonder... shouldn't witch hunters like Ootsukii and his companions think about comparing the victims' handwriting with the messages in the bottle's handwritings? If not them the talk shows? The magazines? The police? I'm sure there are experts that would definitely find who among the victims wrote the messages even if the handwriting was somehow altered.

It's SIGNED. The Witch Hunters haven't shown themselves to be that clever, and Ange was the only person who questioned it that we know about because she has direct insider information.

3) We know very little for sure about what those messages talked about, however we know that they all have in common that in the end 18 people die. Now I really can't think that Kanon doesn't figure in those stories, if that was true then shkanon would be even more pointless than already is, it wouldn't even be fictional. So we can only conclude that Ange isn't among those 18 people. But how "Beatrice" knew that? Battler's return to the family register must have happened earlier but the main family was only informed of Ange's absence the 3rd October right? How could "Beatrice" wrote two stories (or even more) in that little time?
I thought that maybe she wrote the stories before and then she fixed them by removing Ange. That would in fact explain some odd things like the fact that the cousins don't even mention her and say stuff like "all cousins are finally gathered". But even this interpretation has some problems. Why would Beatrice bother to make that change? To make her story more believable? She should have rather worried about the fact that no one would really die... unless she knew that everyone would die. So in other words, no matter how you look at it, those messages should look definitely suspicious from a real world's perspective.

I like the latter idea that Ange was removed in editing; but the reason everyone died would tie into their purpose: Games for Battler. They were probably never intended to actually be believed as real; it's just an incidental problem that arose after the murders happened.

4) How can the "Battler" in those stories be a reliable representation of the real Battler? With the exception of Rudolf and Kyrie (who certainly didn't write those stories) the last time everyone else saw Battler was when he was 12 years old. A person can change a lot from the age of 12 to the age of 18, not only in look but also on personality. How could "Beatrice" know details like the "breast sommelier" joke?

It's 12 year old Battler as an adult; that's it. People have mentioned he hasn't changed much, and it would explain Battler's idealism and over-naive personality. I can totally believe that a 12 year old thinks it's okay to, say,

Spoiler for EP8:

lie to his sister in order to make her happy.

5) There are a few things that Ange herself should be able to confirm, She was very little at the time but usually people remember what happened when they were 5 years old. What she should remember is if she saw her Grandfather at all in 1985. That would definitely confirm or deny what was reported in the messages. The other thing that she should remember is Kanon. The messages show that at least Hideyoshi remembered him, so he must have been present on the past family meetings. If Ange doesn't remember him she should easily realize that there's something wrong with this servant.

NO ONE saw Kinzo in 1985. He was doing his "derpderp locked in the study" bullshit according to Krauss and Natsuhi. Kanon may or may not have been working that year, but assuming he was, even Battler didn't end up seeing him until the 5th in some Episodes.

6) There are several facts mentioned in the messages that should be easy to confirm or debunk in the real world. For example we know that the existence of Kuwadorian was confirmed. The existence of the ingot should also be easy to confirm. After all according to the story not only that ingot was taken long time before but it was also recently retrieved by Krauss. Finding which bank was that shouldn't be that hard, you just need to check who Kinzo received money from. Also Krauss mentioned a squad of experts that checked the island, it should be possible to retrace those people, it should also be possible to ask them what they found and there's no way they didn't find the kuwadorian. The existence of the old military base should have also become apparent unless the government classified that information.

I guarantee the government classified that shit. The rest of that stuff is easy; though I suspect Krauss never conducted any island search and he was bullshitting, since it happened during his money crisis.

If Krauss' boat was really left on Niijima for maintenance right before the incident, it should still be there. Several ex fukuin servants that worked on the Kuwadorian should be able to tell what they know without any obligation to maintain the secret. After all, all the persons involved are dead, and I'm sure they wouldn't refuse the chance to appear on a talk show, certainly not all of them. And not only the fukuin servants. Genji and Kinzo certainly didn't build everything by themselves. that stylish secret room in the depth of Rokkenjima for example, who built it? Who made the pavement? Who painted the walls? Who brought the furnitures? Who created the electric system? And if there's a bathroom as well, who made all the necessary works? That stuff wasn't made by the military, that's for sure. And who built that complex epitaph mechanism? You need some skilled artisans and an architect to make all that custom stuff. Wouldn't they know the solution of Kinzo's epitaph already?

You gotta remember all that shit was laid down in the 40's. It might not be possible to contact them anymore.

Who the hell was the artist!? What did Kinzo (or Genji) say when he contracted the paintings (remember, there's the one in the main hall and apparently also one in the study)? Was there a photograph of Beatrice Castiglioni or Beatrice-2? Did someone physically pose for it? If so, who? What was the painter told about the work he/she would be making?

My guess is Kumasawa made it. Totally. It's one of the only ways she can end up being as relevant as she was implied, now. She's not "the original Beatrice", she's CLAIR.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

My guess is Kumasawa made it. Totally. It's one of the only ways she can end up being as relevant as she was implied, now. She's not "the original Beatrice", she's CLAIR.

There's also the theory that she co-authored the epitaph. She had notes on the epitaph despite the fact that she knew of Kuwadorian's existence so while it's not outright said all the ingredients are there for us to assume she helped write it. I never thought of her being the portrait painter though. That'd add a lot of credibility to it.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

This is a good point, actually. But since no one knows Kanon's real name, how can they look this up? There'd be the false Fukuin records, but if Genji can go that far, he can probably forge a school record or something.

But if someone among the fukuin children disappeared someone would know.
And here the issue is not if Kanon actually existed, but if he was even made to appear as existing.
If Genji manipulated some records as you say then we would be able to exclude the fictional shkanon theory, conversely if no record of Kanon existed at all, then fictional shkanon theory would be confirmed.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

Wait a sec, two years later? I'm pretty sure the record bottles showed up sooner than that?

One bottle was found early by the police. The second bottle was found two years later. And only after that was found the first was made public. All of this was explained by Ootsuki in EP4.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

It's SIGNED. The Witch Hunters haven't shown themselves to be that clever, and Ange was the only person who questioned it that we know about because she has direct insider information.

Hmm I think Ootsuki said something about the handwriting being definitely different from Maria's. As of the witch hunters incompetence, I can't deny that, but my very point was to show how strange it is that among that many people, including reporters and police there isn't even a single competent person.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

It's 12 year old Battler as an adult; that's it. People have mentioned he hasn't changed much, and it would explain Battler's idealism and over-naive personality. I can totally believe that a 12 year old thinks it's okay to...

Well that's my point, the people who have mentioned he didn't change that much are still characters in a fiction. So in other words the Battler we have seen is not the real 18 years old Battler.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

NO ONE saw Kinzo in 1985. He was doing his "derpderp locked in the study" bullshit according to Krauss and Natsuhi. Kanon may or may not have been working that year, but assuming he was, even Battler didn't end up seeing him until the 5th in some Episodes.

How can you tell that with certainty? The only truly reliable perspective is the one from 1998 in the end. We have just realized that "Battler" cannot be the real Battler.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

I guarantee the government classified that shit. The rest of that stuff is easy; though I suspect Krauss never conducted any island search and he was bullshitting, since it happened during his money crisis.

Ha ha, well don't take it bad, but your "guarantee" isn't worth that much from my perspective, unless you can provide any substantial proof that you can do that.

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

You gotta remember all that shit was laid down in the 40's. It might not be possible to contact them anymore.

no earlier than 1950 actually. That's when Kinzo bought the island. The mansion construction was completed at around 1956, so I suppose that about the time when everything was built. So in other words about 30 years before the accident. Yeah I guess it would be a little hard to trace every person involved, but still... not impossible since there should be a lot.

[rogerpepitone]

Its possible to track down the people who built the mansion, but it'll take money to do so.

Side comment: Getting samples of handwriting of the younger characters might be difficult. Any schools would be likely to refuse a non-police inquiry, and the police have closed their investigation.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

4) How can the "Battler" in those stories be a reliable representation of the real Battler? With the exception of Rudolf and Kyrie (who certainly didn't write those stories) the last time everyone else saw Battler was when he was 12 years old. A person can change a lot from the age of 12 to the age of 18, not only in look but also on personality. How could "Beatrice" know details like the "breast sommelier" joke?

She didn't know. There is an excuse for this that is constantly repeated in the text since episode 1. And that's when people return to Rokkenjima they become like they were as kids. This doesn't just apply to Battler and the cousins, but also the adults as well.

Have you ever been to a remote place for a vacation? Don't they have that kind of psychological affect?


Ep 1

Battler:When I see Dad and Eva oba-san arguing, all I can see is a brat's quarrel...

George: "Even though they normally behave like fathers and mothers, in these family conferences, when they meet their old siblings, they turn into children again."

Ep 2:

Battler: "Dad's the same, no matter how old he gets, he's just a child."

Rudolf:"What'd you say? If I'm a child, you're a baby, aren't you? Come on, Battler-chan, up up~!"

Kyrie: "You look more like two bratty friends than a father and son. ...Look, she's here."

In Ep 3 Evatrice is an extreme example of this.

Happens again in Ep 5

Normally, Battler possessed the good sense you'd expect of an 18 year-old man.

`However, it seemed that this reunion had brought him back to the mental age he had been six years ago.

I think there are more examples, but I can't find them right now.

[AuraTwilight]

How can you tell that with certainty? The only truly reliable perspective is the one from 1998 in the end. We have just realized that "Battler" cannot be the real Battler.

The fact remains that it is POSSIBLE for someone like Battler to go a full 24 hours without ever seeing Kanon's face. Even if, hypothetically, neither version of Shkanon is true and Kanon is totally real, the two people who survived the Rokkenjima Incident could've gone without seeing him.

Ha ha, well don't take it bad, but your "guarantee" isn't worth that much from my perspective, unless you can provide any substantial proof that you can do that.

It's deductive reasoning. Do you know how much of a clusterfuck it'd be for the government to admit "Um, yea...we just left a shitload of stolen monetary goods and illegal explosives on the private property of a citizen. DERP."

[Jan-Poo]

It's deductive reasoning. Do you know how much of a clusterfuck it'd be for the government to admit "Um, yea...we just left a shitload of stolen monetary goods and illegal explosives on the private property of a citizen. DERP."

Why they need to go that far? They could simply admit there was an old military base of absolutely no strategic importance there.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

The only truly reliable perspective is the one from 1998

Considering that EP6 claimed that both EP4's 1998 and its own 1998 were fictional, I'm not sure how "reliable" is a term we can reasonably attach to it.

[AuraTwilight]

Why they need to go that far? They could simply admit there was an old military base of absolutely no strategic importance there.

"So um...your old military base EXPLODED and the survivor of the incident came away with a shitton of nazi gold. What's all that about?"

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Considering that EP6 claimed that both EP4's 1998 and its own 1998 were fictional, I'm not sure how "reliable" is a term we can reasonably attach to it.

Episode 6 claimed episode 4's 1998 was fictional? I thought that was a theory not a statement?

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

"So um...your old military base EXPLODED and the survivor of the incident came away with a shitton of nazi gold. What's all that about?"

Do we know what the official explanation of what happened is? Unfortunately no.

However you said two wrong things there:

1) The military base is fine since it was on the Kuwadorian side. Th explosion happened on the opposite side.

2) No evidence of the gold exists from the 1998 perspective. It was implied that Eva actually needed money soon after the incident, it wasn't rich at all, and she had to work hard to make her family rich again. Also since the gold was near the chapel it was probably vaporized along the rest.

Episode 6 claimed episode 4's 1998 was fictional? I thought that was a theory not a statement?

In Episode6 it is said that Ange appeared on Hachijou's second novel in other words EP4. However we don't know if that means that the whole story from Ange's perspective of EP4 was just Hachijou's fiction.
And then again why should we trust EP6's 1998? Maybe that's the fiction.

[AuraTwilight]

Episode 6 claimed episode 4's 1998 was fictional? I thought that was a theory not a statement?

It made the heavy implication since EP6-Ange describes reading about her own death in one of Hachijou's forgeries.

Do we know what the official explanation of what happened is? Unfortunately no.

However you said two wrong things there:

1) The military base is fine since it was on the Kuwadorian side. Th explosion happened on the opposite side.

2) No evidence of the gold exists from the 1998 perspective. It was implied that Eva actually needed money soon after the incident, it wasn't rich at all, and she had to work hard to make her family rich again. Also since the gold was near the chapel it was probably vaporized along the rest.

1) Kinzo owns the whole island. Shit exploded on his island. Said explosions were caused by a military stockpile. Cue either A) Coverup or B) Holy fuck governmental clusterfuck. It'd be the equivalent of learning that 9/11 was an inside job, except it was an accident and Bush just done fucked up.

2) No evidence of the gold exists from the 1998 perspective. It was implied that Eva actually needed money soon after the incident, it wasn't rich at all, and she had to work hard to make her family rich again. Also since the gold was near the chapel it was probably vaporized along the rest.

Eva describes having the gold to Ange. Ange inherited the title of Golden Witch, which in non-magical terms means "owning the gold."

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

1) Kinzo owns the whole island. Shit exploded on his island. Said explosions were caused by a military stockpile. Cue either A) Coverup or B) Holy fuck governmental clusterfuck. It'd be the equivalent of learning that 9/11 was an inside job, except it was an accident and Bush just done fucked up.

How the existence of an old military base directly connects to that?

Originally Posted by AuraTwilight

Eva describes having the gold to Ange. Ange inherited the title of Golden Witch, which in non-magical terms means "owning the gold."

That never happens. Eva tells Ange that she made her fortune by herself she never tells her that she was giving her the gold of the witch.