Brexit Vote

[Arabesque]

Edit:

As I was writing the responses, the Brexit Secretary had resigned, making this the second time this has happened to May, where the man meant to be her aid in securing a deal has walked out and now is against her lol

Also, the DUP has indicated they will be voting no on this draft deal. Seems it really will take Labour to save her now.

Originally Posted by Kakurin

That's the problem with letting the people vote on vague stuff. It enables phonies and populists like Farage to promise the sky without ever needing to show a halfway realistic way of how to achieve that. Even the country that relies most on plebescites in Switzerland has fixed rules on what the people can vote on. And what they vote on are defined proposals on amendments to the constitution / laws. Not some crap question like "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?".

Amen to this.

Of course, it should also be remembered that Cameron had a huge role to play in this mess, as he decided that appealing to UKIP voters and giving Farage a platform was more important than making sure the country doesn't end up in the situation it is in.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

But at least, in the latter option, the UK gained something (the ability to make their own trade deals), even if the worth of that gain compared to the losses is debatable. The former is just straight losses.

Maybe. But then we'd have to get to the question of who will want to make trade deals with the UK, and what are the likely resulting trade deals that the UK will end up getting. It's a big world out there, but only a few actually can and would want to make trade deals with nations outside of their regional sphere of influence.

India? Has a notorious reputation for being difficult in making deals of any kind.

China? Would probably take the opportunity to get back for the Century of Humiliation, and even then what would the UK give in return?

Japan? Australia? Canada? Would any of them pick the UK over the EU for a trade deal?

There is the USA, but what would even happen in that case? And when consideration is given to what the USA wants the UK to do, it seems to be a net loss.

I feel that if we actually did debate and ran a cost/benefit analysis in a No Deal/Hard Brexit situation for the UK, the losses would be pretty bad, and catastrophic in areas like Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.

The deal that we have here isn't good for the UK, but neither is getting out of the EU completely. The only really good deal is No Brexit, but the UK government is refusing to pursue or consider that option.

[James Rye]

7 people resigned, 2 of them Ministers. Gove only wants to be the 3rd Brexit Minister if the November Summit is cancelled and he can renegotiate with the EU. As if he would get a better deal in one month than two others in two years.

[MeoTwister5]

This entire show is like a ship that isn't seaworthy, destines to sink the moment it sets sail, except it is the crew who abandon ship early while the passengers are expected to go down with the ship.

[monir]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

This entire show is like a ship that isn't seaworthy, destines to sink the moment it sets sail, except it is the crew who abandon ship early while the passengers are expected to go down with the ship.

Let them sink. They voted for it. And don't throw in any lifeline.

Either way, the drama is exquisite.

[MrTerrorist]

Hopefully this mess will make the public realize this whole Brexit thing isn't worth it since the people who wanted it were a bunch of Underpants Gnomes who have no idea or plan to do it.

[monir]

Originally Posted by MrTerrorist

Hopefully this mess will make the public realize this whole Brexit thing isn't worth it since the people who wanted it were a bunch of Underpants Gnomes who have no idea or plan to do it.

You unwittingly made a funny comment, or was this actually intentional?

As agent Kay once said in Men in Black, an individual is smart, but people are panicky and dumb.

I wholeheartedly agree.

[MrTerrorist]

^It was intentional. I don't think May is gonna last long after all of this.

[James Rye]

If the deal she worked two years for fails to get through the UK parliament because her own party refuses to back her then she is pretty much finished.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by monir

Either way, the drama is exquisite.

I would not call this a drama, but a play. They are doing the "good cop/bad cop" shtick, more precisely the "bad cop/worst cop".

1. May publishes a draft deal with the EU
2. The members of her party do a tantrum.
3. May tells the EU "you need to sweeten the deal, otherwise my colleagues are going to go medieval and ask for a no deal brexit"
4. The EU sweetens the deal.
5. Repeat again from number 2.

I mean, this was exactly what the UK with the EU for decades and worked wonders, why they should do different this time around?

[Key Board]

I suspect that no one in England agrees what Brexit means

[Ithekro]

So....Thatcher or May?

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Key Board

I suspect that no one in England agrees what Brexit means

I think this one is easy.

For Brexiters it means having all the advantages of being inside the EU without any of the disadvantages; like having great sex outside of marriage without having to fork any money, raise kids or anything with the smallest scent of responsibility.

For ProEU brits it means "oppsie, did I invoked article 50? I didn't mean it, that is,until I change my mind again because I can be easily swayed by the media or your average rotten politician or maybe I will have better things to do when another referendum is scheduled".

[Arabesque]

What does Brexit mean?

Brexit means Brexit

But what does that mean?

Whatever you like it to

Originally Posted by James Rye

If the deal she worked two years for fails to get through the UK parliament because her own party refuses to back her then she is pretty much finished.

May had always surprised for how long she managed to survive outright coups against her and people who are meant to be her best supporters being openly against everything she does, so you never know. Her actual plan (Chequers) had been so soundly rejected and that should've been it for her, but she still hung around until now.

That said, this deal's fate does seem like it would the end point. If she doesn't manage to get the votes, it might as well be a vote on her leadership. She seems bullish on getting this through, but I don't know where she will get the votes.

[SeijiSensei]

US fossil fuel interests like the Kochs, and other US right-wingers like the Mercers, have been supporting the Brexit forces. They hope that the UK will throw off regulations currently imposed by the EU.

Collectively, the network aims to use Brexit as an opportunity to slash regulations in the UK, paving the way for a wide-ranging US-UK free-trade deal that could have disastrous consequences for the environment.

https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/11/18/...bbyists-brexit

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

That said, this deal's fate does seem like it would the end point. If she doesn't manage to get the votes, it might as well be a vote on her leadership. She seems bullish on getting this through, but I don't know where she will get the votes.

From Labour obviously. Only party where she can hope to get 30-40 votes for the brexit plan either because they want to take any deal than risk none or because the Labours want to rebel to Corbyn.

[Anh_Minh]

Images

I think if that guy's one of the architects of Brexit, that explains a lot:

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[Arabesque]

^

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

US fossil fuel interests like the Kochs, and other US right-wingers like the Mercers, have been supporting the Brexit forces. They hope that the UK will throw off regulations currently imposed by the EU.



https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/11/18/...bbyists-brexit

Of course they are, and there had been similar moves made to all types of sectors and industries in the UK (retail, food manufacturing, health care etc.) that have had people like Liam Fox who is salivating over the idea he could devour the NHS, and Jacob Rees-Mogg wanting nothing more than gutting all regulations and worker right protection. It's why even in the event the UK does manage to get a free-trade agreement with the USA, the cost of doing so will not be worth it.

Originally Posted by James Rye

From Labour obviously. Only party where she can hope to get 30-40 votes for the brexit plan either because they want to take any deal than risk none or because the Labours want to rebel to Corbyn.

I dunno. The BBC had done their own chart about the votes that May can count on, and so far, it really seems like her chances are not great (she would need over 40 votes to come from labour)


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46239782

So I don't know what sort of voodoo she thinks she is going to use, but the parliamentary arithmetic is just not there. Labour would basically need to rebel against Corbyn en mass and support May in such massive numbers, they might as well form their own party.

I suppose the fear of going out without a deal might compel them, but somehow I doubt that.

[James Rye]

Well, I read one of the liberals said he will vote for it and maybe some of the remainers and brexit hardliners will think twice before failing the sole deal they got after two years. I think May is building on that scenario. That her putting the pistol on the parliament "this deal or death" will make people hesitate to kick UK of the cliff and that they will vote for her deal because "any deal is better than none". And plenty of Labours do think the same way.

Edit: Seems I wasn't wrong, with Ken Clarke the most Anti-Brexit Tory will vote for the deal. So May's plan is working so far.

[James Rye]

The EU27 voted for the plan, now the UK parliament will get their vote for it in December. Who here thinks they will accept it in first try, accept it in 2nd try or vote it down no matter how often you put it up front and UK will leave EU with a hard Brexit?

[Sides]

The whole exercise just shows how fragmented the UK is. Not only between the home nations, but also regions, industries and wealth.
The only hope I have is that Scotland can break away from Britain. If the english think the EU is bad, then any union between nations is surely just as bad as that.
Regardless if we leave the EU with this deal or no deal, it will have a ripple effect in the UK itself. Basically instead of making great britian "independent" again it will destroy the union at home.